Earl hits Category 4; Fiona forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:01 (GMT)

Share this Blog
3
+

Powerful Hurricane Earl, now a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, continues to lash Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this afternoon. Hardest hit was Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population of 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon EDT, and the island probably saw sustained winds of 100 mph in the south eyewall of Earl. Second hardest hit was probably the island of Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla this morning; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT. Winds were below tropical storm force on Antigua, but heavy rains of 5.71" have deluged the island. Heavy rains have hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5" have occurred southwest of San Juan. A heavy rain band moved across the island late this morning, with a tornadic thunderstorm that prompted issuance of a tornado warning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.


Figure 2. Radar image of Earl taken this afternoon from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico show that the eye of Earl has now moved past the Virgin Islands, and winds will begin to subside on most of the islands this evening. Heavy rains will continue through Tuesday, however, bringing the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 4 knots--but is expected to increase to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, tonight through Thursday afternoon, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This shear should not appreciably affect Earl between now and Thursday, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for continued intensification. Earl should continue to intensify until reaching Category 4 or 5 strength on Tuesday, and will probably maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. The hurricane will probably undergo at least one eyewall replacement cycle during that period, which will diminish its winds by 20 - 30 mph for a day or so. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 8am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's HWRF model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 kt) are predicted to stay off the coast, except over Nova Scotia. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect virtually the entire U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to affect North Carolina's Outer Banks, Southeast Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, but still keep hurricane force winds offshore. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. We now have one model predicting a U.S. landfall--the latest HWRF model predicts Earl will hit the Maine/Nova Scotia border region on Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. Several models now predict Earl will being tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty, and could potentially receive a direct hit. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 10% for Nantucket, 5% for Boston, and 3% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea, but it is not unusual for the models to miss the timing and intensity of these troughs significantly in 4 - 5 day forecasts.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

Fiona forms
Tropical Storm Fiona finally gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be given a name, but continues to struggle with dry air. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity comes and goes, and there are not many intense thunderstorms near the storm's center. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to increase to moderate, 10 - 15 knots, by Tuesday. Fiona is moving quickly to the west, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona, and probably arrest the storm's development. A scenario predicted by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy Fiona through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario, championed by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for Fiona to stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast early next week. At this point, it is difficult to choose between these two scenarios. History suggests that a storm in Fiona's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.

Danielle
Danielle is now a tropical storm, and is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4228 - 4178

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85Blog Index

4228. hurricanejunky
1. syyskuuta 2010 klo 01:09 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
This is an interesting TV special on Donna 9/11/1960. Another storm that was forecast to go to the north and stay out to sea.



Both my parents went thru Donna here in Fort Myers and always reference that storm when talking of hurricanes. Coming up on 9/10, I will be doing an extensive Donna tribute on my website. That storm is a little more personal than some others to our family. Hit Marathon with 180+ mph winds...incredible storm...nice video post...
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
4227. wancheseart
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 19:28 (GMT)
on roanoke island in wanchese. we are hauling yschts and getting ready. small swell looks to be showing up on the oceanfront. thanks to all for the good, in depth info here. govt agencies have to worry too much about politics especially around major holiday$ .
Member Since: 23.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
4226. WXHam
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 19:04 (GMT)
Quoting will40:


I am sorry that you are stuck with such a tough decision. You want to take of family and are worried about your property which i understand. Only prob is that propty can be replaced.Your family one cant. And on another note if you are late getting to the island they may not even let you go on it.Like i said it is a very tough decision and hopefully he stays off shore.


Will ... go to www.wavy.com this from the Navy:
NORFOLK, Va. (WAVY) - The Commander of Navy Region Mid-Atlantic set Hurricane Condition 4 at all Navy Region Mid-Atlantic installations on Tuesday morning. This includes all installations in Hampton Roads.

Hurricane Condition Four means the Navy believes destructive winds are possible within 72 hours.

Officials say ships in the Hampton Roads area are prepared to get underway in order to evade the hurricane, if forecasted conditions dictate. Other area operations are continuing as normal as commands make hurricane preparations. These preparations include securing all hazards throughout the installations, removing debris from drainage areas and sandbagging low-lying areas.

The Navy advises all personnel and their families to review their hurricane checklists and evacuation plans in the event an evacuation is necessary.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
4225. cartking24
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:42 (GMT)
StormW,

Thanks for all of the info you keep putting out. What are the percentages that this track keeps pushing west? I live in Va. Beach, (about 100 miles N of Hatteras) and we dealt with Isabel. I know it's kind of early but what are the odds we see some hurricane force winds out of this?
Member Since: 31.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
4224. TropicalNonsense
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:40 (GMT)
I hope people in NC are preparing for Earl.
The trough that is supposed to move the High over the mid
Atlantic states is not looking as strong today. I am thinking
more and more the OBX are gonna take a full on hit.

Eiher way this is gonna be the closest call of a major cane since
proably Isabel and Fran for the east coast.

Stay ahead of the Game by being prepared in advance especially
if you live in those area's along the coast.

Member Since: 3.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
4223. flsky
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:30 (GMT)
"Atlantic Seaboard oil refiners eye Hurricane Earl"
Link
Member Since: 24.10.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
4222. OuterBanker
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:30 (GMT)
Regarding neighbors, I live in a small subdivision of 24 duplexes and I am about the youngest person at age 60. I have three widowers in their 70s and I am concerned about them also. I know they need assistance, if there is work to do. They may need assistance off the OBX. Also, I would never jeopardize myself, I would be long gone before the bridges were closed. I wish it was as simple as furniture=dead, let's not get dead.
Member Since: 8.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
4221. CTSkywatcher
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:09 (GMT)
Quoting guygee:
Earl's convection hitting the wall along 70W.


You can clearly see on the WV loop that cold dry air mass overtaking the DR/Haiti.

Thanks for the Update Storm!

Unfortunately, interesting doesn't mean fun in this case. No hysteria here in SNE, just watching very closely....
Member Since: 31.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
4220. cloudymix
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:57 (GMT)
Rick Knabb just said a direct hit on OBX is possible, and he also just said some models are trending to a path right up the coast. This is the first time I've heard him say this. He wasn't saying this 3 hours ago.
Member Since: 21.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
4219. hurricanejunky
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:57 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey John,
Just got an Email from Oz that i just posted. He has my Cell # if you need anything done from this end to assist you both. You all be carefull!


Thanks Tampa! I appreciate that....
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
4218. 2COOL
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:50 (GMT)
Floodman, do you foresee need for many adjusters after Earl sweeps thru...or do you think mostly it's the beach sand affected?...or is it just too early to tell!? I'm wondering about whether I should get the state licenses?!!
Member Since: 26.05.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
4217. Bayside
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:48 (GMT)
Quoting 2COOL:
Can anyone tell me what kind of storm surge might be expected...or how this could affect Maryland? Many thanks!!


I was just going to post this Link

This helped a lot with understanding the surge for us in the lower chesapeake during the November Nor'easter last year. It has already changed to a little higher than what it was showing this morning for thursday/friday in Hampton roads, so I check it pretty often when surge is a concern. It's just another tool to have in your toolbox though.

Hampton Roads:


Ocean City:
Member Since: 4.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
4216. obxnagshead
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:47 (GMT)
Quoting will40:


I am sorry that you are stuck with such a tough decision. You want to take of family and are worried about your property which i understand. Only prob is that propty can be replaced.Your family one cant. And on another note if you are late getting to the island they may not even let you go on it.Like i said it is a very tough decision and hopefully he stays off shore.


Do you have any neighbors that will help you out??
Member Since: 24.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
4215. Floodman
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:33 (GMT)
Quoting songman77:
Third bit of advice-Depreciation. Depreciation is simply the difference between what something is worth now and what it would cost to replace it. This is where you need to read your policy. Some policies do not pay depreciation, meaning they will only pay what your home is worth now, not what it would cost to repair it. If your policy does pay depreciation, it is often paid as a second installment, and you have to ask for it. I’ve learned that many adjusters do not explain depreciation well and the homeowners think that the first payment is all they get from the company. Read everything you get from the insurance company, and if you don’t understand something, ask the adjuster. It’s part of his job to make sure you understand your settlement.
Sorry for the books, hope I helped someone,


A word about depreciation: in general, there are two types of depreciation, recoverable, and non-recoverable. Recoverable depreciation is paid to you after the repairs have been completed; some carriers will want to have an adjuster re-inspect to verify the repairs have been completed, others will take copies of your paid repair invoices and release the money form that. Most items in your estimate will be recoverable; the information is in your policy so you will need to read it and make sure you understand it.

Non-recoverable depreciation is just that: money that is taken from an item in the estimate that will not be repaid. Typically fences, carpeting and in some cases roofing are ACV (actual cash value) items.

As songman states, depreciation is based on the current cash value of an item; for example, a roof with a useful service life of 25 years that has been on your home for 10 years would typically be depreciated 40% but depreciation is subjective; if I walk your 10 year old roof and it looks like it's 5 years old I will certainly depreciate it less than 40%...

One final word: mitigation. Your policy will have a paragraph dedicated to what your responsibilities are post storm; you are responsible for making sure that the damage gets no worse. If your roof is compromised, you need to get a tarp on it...if you have a blown out window, you're responsible for boarding it up. After hurricanes and other large scale natural disasters most carriers will be a little more lax about these things because they know that contractors that do that sort of work will be overloaded, but you have to take some action to ensure that your home takes no more damage.

I'll go one step further with this: if you have any questions about any of this, feel free to WUMail me; if the load becomes too great I can't guarantee that I'll answer every one, but I will do my best
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
4214. usa777
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:31 (GMT)
Could someone possibly post yesterdays nhc projected path compared to todays path? Curious to see just how far off the nhc has been on the projected path. Thanks in advance.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
4213. OviedoWatcher
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:27 (GMT)
TruthCommish - apocalyps is not exactly a first time poster. Look at the 'Member Since' line at the bottom of the post, unless that reply was sarcasm. In that case I will go back to lurking. In my case I am a long(ish)-time lurker,
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 94
4212. angiest
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:27 (GMT)
Quoting PEISLANDER:
Am I interpreting this right. The lastest NHC track now has a direct hit on southwestern Nova Scotia as a cat 3 in the 93hr time frame?

Looks like cat 1 to me.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
4210. PEISLANDER
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:25 (GMT)
Am I interpreting this right. The lastest NHC track now has a direct hit on southwestern Nova Scotia as a cat 3 in the 93hr time frame?
Member Since: 30.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
4209. 2COOL
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:24 (GMT)
Can anyone tell me what kind of storm surge might be expected...or how this could affect Maryland? Many thanks!!
Member Since: 26.05.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
4206. TruthCommish
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Quoting apocalyps:
Long time lurker first time poster.
Just trying to learn here.
I think Earl wants to surf on Miami Beach.


Superior first post!
Member Since: 4.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
4205. OracleDeAtlantis
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:


This is not a minor forecasting error (from 24 hours ago)

earl verification


Excellent point ... Earl keeps getting pushed westward, every chance he gets.
Member Since: 27.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
4204. will40
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Quoting OuterBanker:
I live in Kitty Hawk, NC on the Outer Banks (OBX) of NC. I am in DC right now and have not been home in weeks. Do I or don't I drive back down, pull in the lawn furniture, planters, chain down a 500 pound trailer and 12 foot (350 pounds) sailboat, etc. Our home is one mile west and 65 miles north of Cape Hatteras. So do I drive back down this afternoon, do my business and come back up or just skip it. A factor in my decision is that I am in DC caring for an ill family member and would rather not leave her, if it REALLY isn't necessary. Thank you.


I am sorry that you are stuck with such a tough decision. You want to take of family and are worried about your property which i understand. Only prob is that propty can be replaced.Your family one cant. And on another note if you are late getting to the island they may not even let you go on it.Like i said it is a very tough decision and hopefully he stays off shore.
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
4203. seflagamma
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:21 (GMT)
new blog..
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
4202. beell
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Just for the sake of nice, round numbers, call the first frame 20N 66.5W

Second frame, 21N 67.5W
7 hrs, 316°

06:15 UTC

Photobucket

13:15 UTC

Photobucket
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15315
4201. efallon28
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


Let the record be shown I am 21 years old and have a good job.


It was a joke, no worries.

NEW BLOG!!
Member Since: 12.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 105
4200. JRnOldsmar
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)
reed: you are not the one being ignored.
Member Since: 4.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
4199. RitaEvac
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Its moving WNW but the cone is straight off to the NW, doesn't make sense. I'd be hitting the stores now and tonight before the mad rush kicks in. Even if it misses the coast, this thing is coming up the back door
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
4198. Vero1
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:20 (GMT)
NEW Blog
Member Since: 21.07.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
4197. hydrus
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS.
Lose the majuscule text Jay...Good job with your forecast on Danielle by the way. Earl trying hard for complete eyewall...
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
4196. OracleDeAtlantis
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
I love to watch the waves ripple across that bed of dry air to Earl's west. Fascinating to watch this. I wonder if there is a name for these waves?

Member Since: 27.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
4194. PanhandleChuck
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting DestinJeff:


maybe she'll get a ride on the robot


+10
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
4193. UpperLevelLOL
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting oracle28:


Didn't you have a map with arrows going in all directions? I believe someone calucated a 1680 mile wide "cone" on danielle2.jpg.

Correct me if I'm wrong.


No, you're right on. Reedzone basically had the entire Eastern Atlantic as a "possibility"
Member Since: 1.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
4192. Minnemike
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Wait... the "+1" gave me a hint .. I'm THE TROLL??? You're gonna listen to that snobby MET scottsvb?? He's wrong! I'm not a troll.

mtyspider brotha...
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
4190. angiest
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting divdog:
wow you act like the nhc should have every storm nailed down to the millimeter. This is forecasting not connect the dots.


This is not a minor forecasting error (from 24 hours ago)

earl verification
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
4188. reedzone
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting oracle28:


Didn't you have a map with arrows going in all directions? I believe someone calucated a 1680 mile wide "cone" on danielle2.jpg.

Correct me if I'm wrong.


Here's my first run on Danielle, which there was uncertainty.

Photobucket

Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
4186. Levi32
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:17 (GMT)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 311457
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK NUMBERS AND IN AN INCREASE IN THE
PRESSURE TO 939 MB. THIS APPARENT WEAKENING IS MOST LIKELY RELATED
TO AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INDICATED BY THE DOUBLE
EYE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA AT 1035 UTC. HOWEVER...AN
AVERAGE OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR EARL TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF
THE OUTER EYEWALL SHRINKS. DESPITE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...
EARL MOST LIKELY WILL RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES.


EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
AVERAGE MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. EARL HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS AND IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

GIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE
HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Wow really....shear? Hmm, again not really a problem until the post-Carolina part of the track. This massive area of dry air standing in the way of Earl is his problem and is what is weakening him now, outside of the normal EWRC fluctuation. There is no mention of this dry air in the discussion? How odd. I doubt we'll see Cat 4 intensity maintained for the next 48 hours, but we'll see.

It's dry air, not shear:

Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
4185. 7544
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)
another west wobble going toward the se bahamas hmmmmmm
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
4183. reedzone
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Quoting efallon28:


DEFINITELY not a troll.....12 years old maybe, but not a troll. LOL


Let the record be shown I am 21 years old and have a good job.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
4182. AstroHurricane001
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:16 (GMT)


Typhoon Kompasu could make landfall on Seoul as a category one typhoon. From there, it will likely enter the Sea of Japan then cross the Kuroshio Current in the Pacific, where it could re-strengthen to a TS. This could create more eddies in the current (analogous to the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic), setting up the scene for more tropical storms there and a strong Pineapple Express later in the season, as well as stronger warm anomalies invading the PDO.

Looking through the historical tropical cyclones, not one tropical storm has struck the Seoul area since 1945 that is stronger than the (estimated 145 km/h) winds expected from Kompasu for the area. The current track would make the typhoon the strongest to affect Seoul in over 65 years. The closest example I could find was Typhoon Prapiroon in 2000, which hit the North/South Korea border, killing 46 people and causing $6 billion USD in damage.

Member Since: 30.08.2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
4181. tinkahbell
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:15 (GMT)
Was just reading the local news blog here and it seems that no one on the Eastern Shore is taking this seriously. One comment about hurricane preparedness - yeah we do get hit hard every time 1 floats by huh. i like watching ppl gather up 48 gallons of milk. 309 cans of food. 5 bags of cereal. topping opp 500 gallons of gas. all for maybe 3 inches of rain and a lil hail.

One day that blogger may just eat his words.
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 249
4180. TDogg
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:15 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Wait... the "+1" gave me a hint .. I'm THE TROLL??? You're gonna listen to that snobby MET scottsvb?? He's wrong! I'm not a troll.


That was pretty funny. Since you're not on my Ignore list, you're pretty safe with me!
Member Since: 10.12.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
4179. oracle28
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:15 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


I forecast Danielle to recurve a bit east of Bermuda, but had a 10% chance of it heading further west, I had my reasons. My main track was east of Bermuda.


Didn't you have a map with arrows going in all directions? I believe someone calucated a 1680 mile wide "cone" on danielle2.jpg.

Correct me if I'm wrong.
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
4178. weathermanwannabe
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Good Morning......Only point of note is that the "turn" forecast by the models is certainly taking the Trof approaching from the West into consideration in terms of the timing. Looking at the WV loops of the Eastern Conus, the Trof looks pretty strong at the moment and the leading edge stretches from about Texas to the Great Lakes at the moment......Looking pretty good so far as long as it does not stall or weaken.......The timing will make the difference as to how close the core of Earl gets to the US coastline me thinks.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278

Viewing: 4228 - 4178

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
48 °F
Selkeää