Category 3 Hurricane Earl pounding northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 30. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:40 (GMT)

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An intensifying Hurricane Earl is pounding Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles Islands with heavy rain and high winds this morning. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anguilla at 9am EDT, and Juliana airport on neighboring St. Martin Island recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 8am EDT before going silent. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently in Earl just found a central pressure of 960 mb at 9:42 am EDT. This is a significant drop of 25 mb in 25 hours. Top flight level winds at 10,000 feet seen by the Air Force aircraft were 128 mph. Using the usual rule of thumb that the surface winds are 90% of the 10,000 foot flight level winds gives one surface winds of 115 mph, which is right at the border of Cat 2/ Cat 3 strength. Top winds seen at the surface by the Air Force's SFMR instrument were lower, 104 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl is not perfectly symmetrical--there is still fewer heavy thunderstorms on the hurricane's north side, suggesting that upper-level northerly winds are bringing 5 - 10 knots of wind shear to the storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Earl taken at 7am EDT 8/30/10 from the St. Maarten radar. Image credit: Meteorological Service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.

Outlook for the Caribbean islands today
Latest radar animations out of Puerto Rico and St. Marten show that the eye of Earl is on track to pass just to the northeast of the islands of Anguilla, St. Maarten, and The Settlement in the British Virgin Islands today. The periphery of Earl's southern eyewall will probably bring Category 1 hurricane conditions to some of these islands today. NHC is giving its highest odds for hurricane-force winds to Saint Maarten--a 99% chance. These odds are 4% for St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 2% for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The main threat to Puerto Rico will be heavy rains--up to eight inches in isolated areas. Earl's rains, in addition to causing flooding and dangerous landslides, will also help alleviate drought conditions that have affected many of the islands this year.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 3 knots--put is probably higher than that, based on the fact that the northern portion of Earl cloud pattern is ragged. Further evidence of this is the fact that Earl's eyewall had a gap in its west side, according to the latest report from the Hurricane Hunters. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 2. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Monday August 30, 2010 run of NOAA's GFDL model. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, 64 kt and above) are predicted to stay off the coast and tropical storm force winds (light green colors, 34 knots and above) are predicted to stay off the U.S. coast, but affect the coast of Canada. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast, and Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably close to that. None of the computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but the storm will likely come uncomfortably close to North Carolina's Outer Banks and to Massachusetts. The latest set of model runs (2am EDT, or 6Z) project Earl will miss North Carolina by 200 - 300 miles on Thursday, and Massachusetts by a similar distance on Friday. Keep in mind that the average error in a 4 - 5 day NHC forecast is 200 - 300 miles, so the East Coast cannot breathe easily yet. The Outer Banks of North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 9% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 14% for Nantucket, 4% for Boston, and 2% for New York City. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm just missing landfall in the U.S., but possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip current will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Wave forecast for 8am Friday, September 3, 2010, as produced by the 8pm EDT August 29 run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model. The model is predicting waves of 4 - 5 meters (13 - 16 feet) in the offshore waters from North Carolina to New Jersey.

Hurricane History for the northern Lesser Antilles
The last Cape Verdes-type hurricane to affect the Barbuda and the surrounding northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Hurricane Debby of 2000, which passed over the islands on August 28 as a Category 1 hurricane. Damage was less than $1 million, and no fatalities were reported. The last hurricane of any kind to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands was Category 4 Hurricane Omar, on October 16, 2008. Omar took an unusual track, moving towards the northeast, and the storm's eyewall missed all of the islands. Omar did $80 million in damage to the Caribbean, mainly on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, the SSS Islands (Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten), and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No direct deaths were attributed to Omar, and the name Omar was not retired from the 6-year rotating list of hurricane names.

Links to track Earl
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands
Long range radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico
Visible rapid scan satellite loop

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Danielle
Hurricane Danielle is on its way to oblivion over the cold North Atlantic waters, and is only of concern to shipping interests.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
Over in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone activity is ramping up, with two named storms expected to affect land this week. As is typical in a La Niña year, these storms have developed close to mainland Asia, and don't have a lot of time over water to intensify into strong typhoons. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which is expected to hit Okinawa today and recurve northward into Korea on Thursday. It now appears the Kompasu will not have major impacts on China's largest city, Shanghai. In the South China Sea, the fearsome sounding Tropical Storm Lionrock is forecast to hit the Chinese coast near Hong Kong on Tuesday, but is not predicted to develop into a typhoon.

The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Jeff Masters

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2131. moonlightcowboy
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 02:19 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
2130. thelmores
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 01:05 (GMT)
The Freight Train, and Namecasting continues!

Member Since: 8.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3788
2129. FranAteMyRoof96
31. elokuuta 2010 klo 00:51 (GMT)
Quoting jonelu:


I think that because what you are looking at is the very end of the more westerly component. It also appeared to slow down alittle and that because its finely feeling the trof. I think its safe to say we should see alot more NW over the next several hours...if not we will see another change in track.

the trough is still in the midwest
Member Since: 3.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
2128. jonelu
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 23:32 (GMT)
Quoting winter123:
I never understand this. NHC and other forecasters seem to blindly follow models. Earl is clearly moving W or possibly a slight north component. So to have a 6 hour point due NW is completely insane. But I see it very often.



I think that because what you are looking at is the very end of the more westerly component. It also appeared to slow down alittle and that because its finely feeling the trof. I think its safe to say we should see alot more NW over the next several hours...if not we will see another change in track.
Member Since: 31.10.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
2127. StrndedInStPete
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 23:25 (GMT)
So tired of Stateside wx reports saying "Earl might be a bad storm for the US when it makes landfall"...It HAS made landfall in the US and BVI....living there, used to be a little torqued about being forgotten.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
2126. PcolaDan
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 23:09 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG


at 4:00cst
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2125. stormpetrol
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 22:57 (GMT)
Earl is a very impressive hurricane wouldn't surprise me to see it hit Cat 5 briefly, now at 19.4N/65W in my estimation, basically wobbling from W/WnW imo, though it had commenced a NW motion earlier but that was probably just a wobbble due to RI.
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
2124. TropicalGenesis
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 22:42 (GMT)
Current conditions in San Juan

Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: NW 25 G 36 MPH
Barometer: 29.53"
Dewpoint: 77 °F (25 °C)
Heat Index: 83 °F (28 °C)
Visibility: 4.00 m
Member Since: 16.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 103
2123. NewEnglandExpress
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 22:02 (GMT)
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
If we get storm tracks heading up the east coast--you folks here can expect many beginner type questions. Please be gentle with them. LOL

Thanks SunnyDaysFla. I'm not new to the blog and usually a looker. I don't want to be stoned.
I live in the New London Ct area and can provide updates and pictures if earl comes a calling
Member Since: 26.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
2122. msmama51
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 22:01 (GMT)
blog stopped?
Member Since: 4.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
2121. Eugeniopr
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:46 (GMT)
Quoting watchingnva:


that image is exactly why i dont use mimic for movenent or direction....bc it shows stuff like that...earl didnt go due north then due west then back sw to go around that island....mimic is good for looking at structure and eyewall replacements, maybe to help show a coc when an eye has not formed yet...thats it imo...

hows everyone doing this evening?..:)


The address is http://home.comcast.net/~herbwx/hurrican.html and the secret is that we have an extra terrestial base in our rain forest, El Yunque. They are very hepfull.
Member Since: 1.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 251
2120. snotly
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:44 (GMT)
The ecmwf has the remnants of Fiona going through the Straits of Florida in 144 hours.
Member Since: 27.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
2119. watchingnva
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:42 (GMT)
im actually southeast of richmond in extreme southeastern chesterfield county and prince george county.......i would have to deal with the folks "being smart" coming up rt.5, rt.10 and 460....it would def. be a madhouse if it were to happen...lol
Member Since: 7.09.2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1475
2118. watchingnva
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:39 (GMT)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


hows it going u in richmond? ready for some gates to close?


lmao!....itll definitely be interesting to see if the well spent money actually helps evac better...the gates come up to exit 205...i guess they want everyone to filter onto 295 up here...lol...
Member Since: 7.09.2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1475
2117. MrstormX
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:37 (GMT)
I feel duped.....

New Blog
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
2116. Skyepony (Mod)
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:37 (GMT)
One of NOAA's planes is in there..hit flight level winds 108 knots
(From between the S and SSW at ~ 124.2 mph) then the pressure plummets..down to 933.9mb, there was a 930 something on each side..WOW...
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36074
2115. VAbeachhurricanes
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:37 (GMT)
Anyone in PR that can say if the winds are starting to increase?
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
2114. Claudette1234
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:32 (GMT)
Quoting MrstormX:


Don't get to excited, I learned yesterday that the NHC doesn't always take the lowest pressure recorded in a NOAA non-tasked flight.


Even if no take lower, sure take less than 940mb, normali takes 3 or 4 mb more so aprox 938mb
Member Since: 21.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
2113. Brennen
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:32 (GMT)
I again apologize for being new but can someone smarter than me tell me what that new line on the steering graphic on post #2100 means? Does that mean the weakness to the north has been closed off by the A/B ridge? I'm sorry, I'm trying to learn how to read these maps.
Member Since: 17.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
2112. shadoclown45
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:32 (GMT)
Fiona is the most ragged exuse for a tropical storm i have seen... Other than Bonnie.
Member Since: 27.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
2111. watchingnva
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:31 (GMT)
can someone give me a link on the tropicalatlantic page that just shows the data?
Member Since: 7.09.2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1475
2110. VAbeachhurricanes
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:30 (GMT)
Quoting watchingnva:
did they really just find 937.6?....wow


hows it going u in richmond? ready for some gates to close?
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
2109. germemiguel
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:30 (GMT)
Fiona will go West West West....

Member Since: 3.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
2108. MrstormX
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:29 (GMT)
Quoting Claudette1234:
Time: 21:15:00Z
Coordinates: 19.3333N 64.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 621.6 mb (~ 18.36 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,602 meters (~ 11,818 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 933.9 mb (~ 27.58 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 38° at 17 knots (From the NE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.9°C (~ 60.6°F)
Dew Pt: 6.1°C (~ 43.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)


934 mb!!!!!


Don't get to excited, I learned yesterday that the NHC doesn't always take the lowest pressure recorded in a NOAA non-tasked flight.
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
2107. watchingnva
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:28 (GMT)
did they really just find 937.6?....wow
Member Since: 7.09.2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1475
2106. shadoclown45
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:28 (GMT)
I don't think fionas gonna make it past the next 72hrs.
Member Since: 27.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
2105. msmama51
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:28 (GMT)
Quoting errantlythought:
Bridge.



Please forgive my untrained eye, but isn't the break to the north closed off and the steering is to the sw? Am I looking at it wrong?
Member Since: 4.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
2104. MrstormX
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:27 (GMT)
Quoting TexasHoosier:


Thanks. On his blog, his title is listed as
"GMCS, USCG (Ret.)" - I believe that is what it is. So I was curious as to the GMCS part. Wonder if that indicated he was a retired Master Chief - do you know?

Also, I bet Earl goes CAT 5 for while today and will fall back to a CAT 3/4 on Tuesday.

Still would like to know abou that Eastern US ridge and if it has moved more to the South or East, which would pinch off that shaky trough and really cause a lot of angst at the NHC....


I believe GMCS stands for "Senior Chief Gunner's Mate", a certain ordinance group in the USCG.
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
2103. Claudette1234
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:26 (GMT)
Time: 21:15:00Z
Coordinates: 19.3333N 64.9W
Acft. Static Air Press: 621.6 mb (~ 18.36 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,602 meters (~ 11,818 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 933.9 mb (~ 27.58 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 38° at 17 knots (From the NE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.9°C (~ 60.6°F)
Dew Pt: 6.1°C (~ 43.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)


934 mb!!!!!
Member Since: 21.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
2102. SunnyDaysFla
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:25 (GMT)
If we get storm tracks heading up the east coast--you folks here can expect many beginner type questions. Please be gentle with them. LOL
Member Since: 19.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
2101. watchingnva
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:25 (GMT)
Quoting winter123:
Ha... look how Earl wobbled to avoid that island.


that image is exactly why i dont use mimic for movenent or direction....bc it shows stuff like that...earl didnt go due north then due west then back sw to go around that island....mimic is good for looking at structure and eyewall replacements, maybe to help show a coc when an eye has not formed yet...thats it imo...

hows everyone doing this evening?..:)
Member Since: 7.09.2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1475
2100. errantlythought
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:25 (GMT)
Bridge.

Member Since: 27.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
2099. UpperLevelLOL
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:22 (GMT)
wow, we're halfway into the season and still have newbies wondering "what that XTRAP model is"?

Yeesh.
Member Since: 1.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
2098. TexasHoosier
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:20 (GMT)
Quoting MrstormX:


Coast Guard is the same ranking system as the Navy, there symbols are blue instead of black.


Thanks. On his blog, his title is listed as
"GMCS, USCG (Ret.)" - I believe that is what it is. So I was curious as to the GMCS part. Wonder if that indicated he was a retired Master Chief - do you know?

Also, I bet Earl goes CAT 5 for while today and will fall back to a CAT 3/4 on Tuesday.

Still would like to know abou that Eastern US ridge and if it has moved more to the South or East, which would pinch off that shaky trough and really cause a lot of angst at the NHC....
Member Since: 3.12.2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
2097. Asta
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:19 (GMT)
Quoting dader:


Yes it looks pretty clear to me

Yep me too!
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
2096. winter123
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:19 (GMT)
Ha... look how Earl wobbled to avoid that island.
Member Since: 29.07.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
2095. Asta
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:18 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Asta, I believe the xtrap is not really a model...it's the line drawn from the current heading if the system stayed on course....

Oh Right! Thanks!
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
2094. msmama51
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:18 (GMT)
Quoting ringeaux:


Correct, they did not start predicting a NOLA hit til late friday night before the storm.


I remember that I was on the way back from Lowe's on Sat at about 2:00 pm with a load of shelving for my living room when they came over the radio with an emergency announcement that evacuation orders were likely to come out shortly. The storm when I left for Lowe's was going to Florida. That's how fast it changed.
Member Since: 4.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
2093. fatlady99
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:18 (GMT)
Quoting KanKunKid:


NHC's track for Fiona is based somewhat on the track of Earl, as his outflow is supposed to smack her upside the head and keep her from getting too strong and jerk her around like a mid-western trailer park "hero", but without the wife-beater shirt and lukewarm PBR.
So, if Squirrely Early's track changes, Fionas will change too.


You must be very young to think that DV is humor. Please reconsider.
Member Since: 4.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410
2092. heretolearninPR
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:18 (GMT)
Quoting serialteg:


whenever the bands hit, they'll come


The winds have picked up substantially here in San Juan over the last 20 mins or so. I don't know how strong they are but I heard the first metal thing crash outside (maybe someones furniture or a sign). The rain is also very heavy.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
2091. Asta
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:18 (GMT)
Quoting KanKunKid:


We track 'em by points though, not by the system.

Yes- true, but for those observers who are not mets-who are in the path or a possible area of impact of a storm,
I think it is imperative to make clear the wide path of impact that a storm may have
so that the public can be prepared and not be taken unaware - just mho.
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
2090. hurricanehanna
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:17 (GMT)
Quoting Asta:
So only XTRP is different in the models and takes Earl into the GOM.. Why?
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/07-googlemaps.shtml

Asta, I believe the xtrap is not really a model...it's the line drawn from the current heading if the system stayed on course....
Member Since: 5.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
2089. winter123
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:16 (GMT)
Quoting shfr173:
What effect if any will the low in GOM have on the future path of Earl?


None... I'm curious though what Fiona will do when she crashes into Earl. Perhaps have a baby and name it Gaston?

Sorry bad joke :P

Member Since: 29.07.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
2088. earthlydragonfly
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:16 (GMT)
Quoting primez:
You know what's crazy? Alex still had a lower pressure than Earl has right now.


Its not when you think of Alex's close proximity to land when at that pressure. ran out of ocean to expand
Member Since: 1.07.2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1681
2087. dader
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:15 (GMT)
Quoting Asta:
Northwest Atlantic - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
select the SST and the Trop Fcst Pts
Can you see why Earl will turn to follow Danielle?


Yes it looks pretty clear to me
Member Since: 6.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
2086. AtHomeInTX
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:15 (GMT)
I'd never looked at Rita's graphics before. But the NHC seemed to have a handle on it pretty early. At least with the actual landfall area in the cone abut 3 days out.



And started moving it NE of Houston on the morning of the 22nd.

Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
2085. Clearwater1
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:15 (GMT)
Quoting shadoclown45:
What are the chances that Ny city will see Earl as a landfalling hurricane?
I don't know about nyc, but looks possible. I do know, that if I lived in NC, I'd be stocking and boarding up and in a hurry.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
2084. MrstormX
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:14 (GMT)
Quoting Asta:
So only XTRP is different in the models and takes Earl into the GOM.. Why?
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/07-googlemaps.shtml


It's the XTRAP... not really a model.
Member Since: 27.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
2083. StormPro
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:14 (GMT)
Quoting MsTekkie:


Woah... I'm sure the relatives of all the people who died from Katrina will send you a dollar for your expensive grass seed.

Seriously... Wow.

Tell it how it is +1
Member Since: 4.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
2082. CaicosRetiredSailor
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:14 (GMT)
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
2081. hurricanehunter27
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:13 (GMT)
looken at the RAMSDIS I'd like to say this may be a 145-150 storm right now.
Member Since: 22.07.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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