Earl a threat to the Lesser Antilles; Danielle misses Bermuda; 97L organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 28. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:40 (GMT)

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The Atlantic's first major hurricane of 2010, Hurricane Danielle, is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, and has weakened to a Category 2 storm. Danielle peaked in intensity yesterday as a low-end Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Danielle is expected to pass well east of Bermuda tonight, bringing winds of 25 - 35 mph to the island. So far this morning, winds have remained below 20 mph at the Bermuda airport. Bermuda radar shows the outermost spiral bands of Danielle are beginning to approach the island. Infrared satellite loops show that Danielle's cloud tops have warmed, indicating weakening. This is due to the collapse of the storm's eyewall. A new eyewall will form today, but by the time the new eyewall forms on Sunday morning, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 40 knots, ending any chance Danielle has of further intensification. Danielle is destined to recurve out to sea without hitting any land areas. The largest impacts Danielle will have are from its waves. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 12 - 18 foot waves today for Bermuda's offshore waters, and large waves of 6 - 8 feet will affect much of the U.S. East Coast today through Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 6 - 8 foot waves this weekend.


Figure 1. True color image of Danielle taken at 10:25am EDT Friday, August 27, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Danielle was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds.

Tropical Storm Earl
The bigger concern in the Atlantic today is Tropical Storm Earl. Earl continues to follow a track very similar to Danielle's, but is now farther south than Danielle was. Recent satellite imagery shows the storm has changed little in organization this morning. Water vapor satellite images show a large region of dry air from the Sahara lies to the northwest of Earl, and this dry air is keeping Earl's heavy thunderstorm activity relatively meager. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that northerly upper-level winds due to the outflow from Hurricane Danielle are creating a moderate 10 - 15 knots of shear over Earl. This shear is keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of Earl's center of circulation. The center of circulation is now exposed to view, which is always a sign of a tropical storm struggling with high wind shear. The first flight into Earl is scheduled for 4pm EDT this afternoon, and will be a research mission by NOAA's P-3s. The NOAA jet will also fly tonight to sample the large-scale steering currents. The first regular hurricane hunting mission by the Air Force is scheduled for Sunday morning.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Earl.

Intensity forecast for Earl
The latest SHIPS model forecast for Earl predicts that wind shear will remain moderate this afternoon, 10 - 15 knots, then fall a bit to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots through Monday, as Danielle pulls away and its upper-level outflow stops bringing northerly wind shear to Earl. This reduction in shear should allow the storm to build heavy thunderstorms around the entire center of circulation on Sunday, and close off Earl's core from the dry air to the northwest. SSTs will warm from 29°C today to nearly 30°C on Sunday. These very high SSTs, combined with the low shear environment expected Sunday and Monday, should allow to Earl to intensify into a hurricane by Monday. Earl will likely be a major hurricane by Tuesday and Wednesday, as it moves northwestward between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.

Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. As Earl approaches the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle will allow Earl the opportunity to move more to the west-northwest, likely bringing the core of the storm just to the northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands Sunday night and Monday morning. However, it is possible that Earl could move directly over some of these northernmost islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 57% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and an 18% chance of getting hurricane force winds. Heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds should begin affecting the islands Saint Maarten, Barbuda, and Antigua late Sunday night. The odds of Earl bringing tropical storm force winds to Puerto Rico are lower--25%, according to NHC.

Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a storm in Earl's current location has a 30% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are probably more like 20%, due to the steering influence of a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted by the long-range GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea late in the week, with the storm missing landfall. However, six-day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along the U.S. East Coast Thursday or Friday. The most likely landfall locations would be North Carolina on Thursday, or Massachusetts on Friday. The GFS model predicts that Earl will come close enough to North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore, and it is possible that Earl could pass close enough to Bermuda to bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the Atlantic, as predicted by the GFS model, the two storms could interact and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast for Earl has higher than usual uncertainty because of the possibility of a storm-storm interaction with Fiona.

Links to track Earl
Martinique radar
Wundermap of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands

97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands remains well-organized, and appears destined to develop into a tropical storm and follow the path of Danielle and Earl. 97L already has a broad, elongated surface circulation, as seen on satellite loops, but only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm is experiencing a moderate 10 - 15 knots of winds shear, is over warm 28°C waters, and is battling a region of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, tonight through Monday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression. The storm will follow a track very similar to Danielle and Earl westward towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the storm should arrive near the northern Lesser Antilles Wednesday or Thursday. A more northwesterly path is likely for 97L as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, as the storm follows a break in the high pressure ridge steering it, created by Danielle and Earl. It currently appears that the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be at risk of at close brush or direct hit by 97L. If 97L moves relatively quickly, arriving at the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, it is likely to be a weaker system, since it will have less time over water, and will be closer to big brother Earl. Earl is likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at that time, and the clockwise upper level outflow from Earl will bring strong upper-level northerly winds to the Lesser Antilles, creating high wind shear for 97L. However, if 97L moves relatively slowly, and arrives in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, Earl will be farther away, the wind shear will be lessened, and 97L will have had enough time over water to potentially be a hurricane. Depending upon how fast they have 97L moving, the computer models have a wide variety of solutions for 97L, ranging from a making it a major hurricane five days from now (GFDL model) to a weak tropical storm five days from now (several models.) History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. NHC is giving 97L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 97L.

Elsewhere in the Tropics
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Frank is dissipating off the coast of Baja California in Mexico.

There is at least one more tropical wave over Africa that will be a candidate to develop into a tropical depression late next week once it emerges from the coast.

Jeff Masters

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4431. hylas49two
30. elokuuta 2010 klo 11:47 (GMT)
Just in the last 15-20 minutes the cloud cover has really thickened and wind has picked up a bit more.

Live camera looking out our back door is still working:

http://bit.ly/bwk53I

This is looking easterly from the Pelican area about 100 feet above sea level.

Enjoy.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
4430. PensacolaDoug
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 22:09 (GMT)
Link
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
4429. PensacolaDoug
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 22:07 (GMT)
yo
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
4428. PensacolaDoug
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 22:07 (GMT)



huh?
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
4427. TampaFLUSA
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 17:54 (GMT)
Quoting Clearwater1:


That model changes alot from run to run, but for sure, something to watch, if you live in FL and beyond, if you know what I mean

That model over does it allot....925mb that's major.
Member Since: 21.06.2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 1657
4426. aasmith26
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 17:48 (GMT)
Does the NHC start issuing intermediate advisories once the storm is an actual threat to land? Or once hurricane warnings / watches have been issued?
Member Since: 30.06.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 226
4425. Vero1
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:51 (GMT)
Hurricane Earl Part "A" and Part "B"



Member Since: 21.07.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
4424. aislinnpaps
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:25 (GMT)
I just finished grooming a dog and thought I'd come back to new information...
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
4423. HurricaneSwirl
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:15 (GMT)
No posts for 12 minutes? Geez.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
4422. Xyrus2000
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:03 (GMT)
I was just wondering the same thing.

Also, what's going to be pulling Earl NW? Earl is still trucking west and doesn't seem like he's going to change his mind anytime soon.
Member Since: 31.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1226
4421. HurricaneSwirl
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 16:01 (GMT)
Where is everybody???
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
4420. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:50 (GMT)
X
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
4419. blsealevel
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:44 (GMT)
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
4418. blsealevel
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:38 (GMT)


watching Hurr. K 5 year thing is mighty depressing and with that its still raining.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
4417. Claudette1234
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:27 (GMT)
alid: 08.31.10 0Z
Windspeed: 117kts
Central Pressure: Not Available.
Forecast Hour: 36
Storm: 07
Model: GFNI

GFNI new model put Earl at Puerto Rico as CAT4 Major hurricane.
Member Since: 21.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
4416. LAlurker
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:18 (GMT)
When was Earl upgraded?

HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.

I sure hope that the crew on that HH realized the panic he would create when issuing a vortex message that was almost 3.5 miles south of the previous VM!
Member Since: 24.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
4413. wunderkidcayman
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:05 (GMT)
maybe at the 2 pm advisor they will change the location to the WSW we need to watch this
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4411. Clearwater1
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:
Danielle is being sheared apart by 25-35KTS of NW wind shear.

Earl is getting his act together, looks like a CAT 3 in 48 hrs and my thoughts and prayers are for the safety of the Lesser Antilles and PR/VI and the surrounding islands.

East Coast needs to keep a CLOSE eye on Earl.

97L looks like a TD already, we all need to keep an eye on it.

Last Tropical Wave off Africa looks healthy.

Everyone think we may have a busy September???

Very busy Sept indeed. And maybe oct and into Nov as well. Early storm count predictions easily can come to pass
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
4410. hurricanehanna
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on satellite imagery and the data from the Reconnaissance aircraft, Earl is intensifying quite quickly. The vortex messages positions also conclude that it is moving just south of due west. Unless that changes, Earl will likely be making a quick passage through the Caribbean.


Is he still going to "feel the turn" in your opinion?
Member Since: 5.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
4409. wunderkidcayman
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
katrinakat5 you may very well be right Earl might be a full caribbean storm
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4408. hylas49two
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:57 (GMT)
Still beautiful here in St. Maarten. Take a look at our live camera.

http://bit.ly/bwk53I

I will be keeping this on during Earl as long as we have electricity and connectivity. Buy me a beer!

Cheers
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
4406. Bordonaro
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:57 (GMT)
Danielle is being sheared apart by 25-35KTS of NW wind shear.

Earl is getting his act together, looks like a CAT 3 in 48 hrs and my thoughts and prayers are for the safety of the Lesser Antilles and PR/VI and the surrounding islands.

East Coast needs to keep a CLOSE eye on Earl.

97L looks like a TD already, we all need to keep an eye on it.

Last Tropical Wave off Africa looks healthy.

Everyone think we may have a busy September???
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
4405. RadarNerd
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Quoting usmcweathr:
img src="

Definitely becoming better organized


Looks like it started a WNW in the last three hours. Which looks like a jump right at the very end of the animation. Lets hope it continues throughout the day and can lift him to 19-20ish at least.
Member Since: 25.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 75
4404. Herbertsbox
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:52 (GMT)
ARL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

.HURRICANE EARL

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-012-013-VIZ001-002-
292100-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1007.100829T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

PUERTO-RICO-ALL 18.20N 66.45W
VIRGIN-IS.-(U.S.) 18.05N 64.80W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...
Member Since: 19.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 94
4403. Clearwater1
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Quoting 7544:
looks like earl dosent want to go north and still goin west

and wow to major if so fiona for the whole state of fla needs to watch that one

Link


That model changes alot from run to run, but for sure, something to watch, if you live in FL and beyond, if you know what I mean
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
4401. 7544
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
looks like earl dosent want to go north and still goin west

and wow to major if so fiona for the whole state of fla needs to watch that one

Link
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
4400. wunderkidcayman
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
godd morning guys

I knew that Earl was going to move WSW-SW

I said that too last night stormwatcherCI

if earl continue WSW-SW then we very well see a big change in where the land falls are going to be and also I did say last night that Earl is going to and I am saying it again is going to be on the southern side of this cone

Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
4399. gordydunnot
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Hurricanes that are strong Cat 1 an above have clear eye walls usually either Satellite wise or by radar. It is hard to predict exact location as the eye on this storm is still trying to form. So small adjustments in tracking apparent center are to be expected.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
4397. Clearwater1
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting usmcweathr:
img src="

Definitely becoming better organized
Again, that's a great graphic. Last frame or two, looks like it moved wnw
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
4396. troy1993
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Hey I didnt see anyone mentioning this earlier but it is possible that we could be looking a track similar to Hurricane Gloria in 1985?
Member Since: 29.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
4395. HarryMc
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Not an IQ problem a CSQ (common sense quotient) deficit.


+1
Member Since: 30.03.2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 337
4394. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Lionrock was contributed by Hong Kong, China.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701
4393. TropicalAnalystwx13
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Quoting flhurricanesurvivor:
would someone please post a graphic of Earl's relationship to the Hebert Box?


Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30280
4392. flhurricanesurvivor
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Quoting antonio28:
I am in P.R. should I prepare for a hurricane?
yes, you should always be prepared when a storm is this close.
Member Since: 21.09.2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 156
4391. maeko
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Earl didn't take a jog South, did he?!
Member Since: 25.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
4390. MiamiHurricanes09
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
4389. weathermancer
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You do realize Earl's a guy, not a girl, right?!


The dangerous hurricanes are always women.
Member Since: 29.08.2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 482
4388. alpha992000
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Quoting serialteg:


ive heard that too often ... and the funny thing is, the people are behaving as if NOTHING is happening lol. facebook statuses: "let's go to the beach!" "domino time!" "stop telling people this is coming and scaring them!" etc. etc.

sometimes i think my country has an iq problem lol


Hehehe You need some of my friends then. Statuses a bit ago were "At Walmart waiting for the freaking store to open" or "I hope there's something -anything- left @ Home Depot". I may update mine in a bit to "2 nights without any sleep glued to WU & in route to Hell-on-Earth (aka Walmart) & Paradise (Best Buy) for last minute preparations".
Member Since: 16.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
4387. txsweetpea
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on satellite imagery and the data from the Reconnaissance aircraft, Earl is intensifying quite quickly. The vortex messages positions also conclude that it is moving just south of due west. Unless that changes, Earl will likely be making a quick passage through the Caribbean.


So would that mean COC is south of due west and the northern portion of earl is convection?Trying to learn here.
Member Since: 7.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
4386. ShenValleyFlyFish
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Quoting serialteg:


ive heard that too often ... and the funny thing is, the people are behaving as if NOTHING is happening lol. facebook statuses: "let's go to the beach!" "domino time!" "stop telling people this is coming and scaring them!" etc. etc.

sometimes i think my country has an iq problem lol
Not an IQ problem a CSQ (common sense quotient) deficit.
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
4384. antonio28
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:41 (GMT)
I am in P.R. should I prepare for a hurricane?
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
4383. srada
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:41 (GMT)
Good Morning everyone

At what latitude and longitude is Earl supposed to turn west or did he miss the turn already..the further west and the further the turn, more likely a conus hit
Member Since: 17.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
4381. OviedoWatcher
29. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:41 (GMT)
There was a discussion last night at about 1am, between a few people as to what constitutes a 'fish storm'. Opinions varied from storm in which the coc doesn't hit land (i.e you could get hurricane strength winds, but still have a fish storm) at one extreme to a storm which doesn't produce any impact on land at the other. Is there an agreed definition? I would have thought it was a storm that didn't produce ts force winds over land, but I don't know the real answer.
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 94

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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