Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 22. elokuuta 2010 klo 17:14 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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3282. neonlazer
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 21:08 (GMT)
Member Since: 5.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
3281. oracle28
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 17:40 (GMT)
"I would ask how many on here have more tools at their disposal and more knowledge than the NHC??"

I'm missing an adjustable wrench and basic met science skills, but other than that...
Member Since: 25.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
3280. 346carl
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Member Since: 8.12.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
3279. hcubed
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Quoting kanc2001:


exactly he's taking up the slack for JFV


Easier to spot, too - all 6 names he's used so far are variations of a theme.

And, remember - his change of names were not results of a ban, they're results of the use of ignore.
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
3278. WxBlogAddict
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here we go.

Cue Andrew track.


"I hate being right all the time.." Jeff Goldbloom. Can you feel it?
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
3277. 7544
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:36 (GMT)
i once herad max mayfield state that a strong strom can build their own high over them and go west and get harder to turn could this be happening with daniale
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
3276. Kristina40
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:34 (GMT)
I'm watching the GoM blob. The lowest pressure I'm finding is 1010.7 just N of Tampa and offshore.
Member Since: 27.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
3275. kshipre1
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:34 (GMT)
Hello Storm,

Quick question for you. What is your outlook for September? do you see the pattern of troughs continuing to re curve storms out to sea or a building high pressure system posing more landfall threats?

Also, what is your take on potential TS Earl and it's track? Thanks
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
3274. GeoffreyWPB
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:34 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
3273. wunderkidcayman
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:32 (GMT)
I got a feeling that very soon Danielle will move SW for a short while in a few minutes I am just waiting for the 12Z surface map to come out
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
3272. o22sail
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TWO FISH STORMS


Why do you hate fish so much? ;-)
Member Since: 27.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
3269. homelesswanderer
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Quoting Bayside:
Oh, my mistake this is the project my father was talking about...GRIP which stands for : "Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes" experiment . Link


Yep. That's the one I was thinking about. :)
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3268. osuwxguynew
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:29 (GMT)
While there is certainly an eye in there forming.

I think that some of this clearing that we're seeing is a dry slot that wrapped in the from west.

RGB Loop

Member Since: 15.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
3267. hurricanemaniac123
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!
Member Since: 21.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
3266. reedzone
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Notice how models had one scenario one day, then yesterday they had another scenario, now back to the first scenario.. Models are still not in good confidence on what Danielle will do. Steering shows that she should go further west then head northwest after she catches the weakness off the East Coast, which may or may not steer her out to sea. Watch the models shift left again, not just because of the fast,westward movement, but because they are not really confident on what will happen.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
3265. SpFox
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: 23.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
3264. Cotillion
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
By the way, SAB put Danielle at 3.5 and TAFB put Danielle at 4.0 at 1145.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3263. Eagle101
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)










Member Since: 7.01.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
3261. nrtiwlnvragn
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
3260. osuwxguynew
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Quoting Relix:
Close to 15N and 40W. For folks in the islands remember our danger zone is 15N and 50W so we are pretty safe from this beautiful lady. She's about 35 miles south of her forecast points.


Some of the difference is likely due to the NHC showing a smooth curve to the cone, as opposed to the more abrupt turn which is more likely.

She's moving faster than they forecasted too, though they'll change that at 11AM
Member Since: 15.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
3258. CybrTeddy
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


Interesting one indeed, thanks.


Not only that but how quickly overnight it developed a nearly full eyewall and now the eye is popping out. (post 3205)
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23016
3257. mrpuertorico
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom:


Yes, Danielle will be leaving you her dance card....LuckyMAN, those initial waves would be out of my league for sure..I'd have to wait for the left overs.
I'm curious about waves/surf in PR - are you near Rincon or Isabella ? - wondered what the wind and wave height will be....do you have a suggestion for a good local surf site to check this out? (WUmail me)

Surf line is a great surfers website i use it also to follow storms and waves and coldfronts besides this blog and no i dont live on the paradise side of PR i live in the San Juan metroplex and my surf spots have changed since i graduated from univeristy (less time) and also i am a bodyboarder so my choices are mostly beach breaks just because there are less boarders i do enjoy the southern side at this time of year with the tropical waves coming up rincon is better during the winter months but i dont get out there at all.
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
3256. Bayside
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Oh, my mistake this is the project my father was talking about...GRIP which stands for : "Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes" experiment . Link
Member Since: 4.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
3255. Clearwater1
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE SYNOPSIS AUGUST 23, 2010 ISSUED 9:15 A.M.


Storm, a season or two ago, it seemed when a storm recurved in the Atlantic, regardless where, if another storm formed shortly after, it seemed to follow in the "wake" of the previous storm. Is this normally the case, or is each storm independent of the prior, at least in track. When you get a chance, maybe you can respond. Thanks
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
3254. Relix
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
Danielle is moving in a 280 heading at the moment.

Can you document? Thanks.


Sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

In the last few visible frames you can see it changing from maybe 290-295 to a more westward track. May just be a wobble but if you activate Forecast Points it's definitely south of them.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

Water vapor shows this movement better. SLIGHT EDIT: Maybe 285 movement is more accurate.
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
3253. BFG308
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Maybe for a "land storm" we should call it a "mammal storm."

Danielle is looking much healthier...let's see if she can crank it up a notch today!
Member Since: 17.06.2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 35
3251. Chucktown
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting caneswatch:


That's an awfully high statement. Here's my take: Danielle is still a little up in the air on track, and as for the wave behind, it's future track is looking west, for now.


Actually, GFS takes the next wave and pulls it quickly north and well east of Danielle. Too soon to determine its track, but early guidance keeps it well into the eastern Atlantic and barely gets past 40 W before weakening.

Link
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1664
3250. reedzone
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah. I was very surprised by how quickly it relocated.

Should be an interesting 11am discussion.


Interesting one indeed, thanks.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
3247. Stormchaser2007
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


Ohh.. dang it moved that fast.. Interesting storm.


Yeah. I was very surprised by how quickly it relocated.

Should be an interesting 11am discussion.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
3246. Chicklit
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Danielle is moving in a 280 heading at the moment.

Can you document? Thanks.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
3244. PensacolaDoug
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting mrpuertorico:
Just some humor for everyone...
Why say fish storm arent all these storms fish storms because the form in the ocean? How about instead of yelling fish storm perhaps we should be yelling "land storm" when a storm starts to look like its heading to land? rofl! sorry just had to break all the tension


That ship already sailed!
I've heard the term "fish storm" on CNN, FOX, and TWC. But it started here on this blog a few yeears ago, as far as I remember..
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
3243. Relix
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting Clearwater1:
a or so ago, some of the model runs had that "pre Earl" run much futher south and west. Is that what you're referring to?

Yeah. It's also very low at the moment. First trough may give it a slight North nudge but since it's so weak maybe won't feel a thing. Now the second trough may allow it to move northward a tad bit more (same that will catch Danielle) so it's up in the air.

Danielle is moving in a 280 heading at the moment.
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
3242. reedzone
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The center never dissipated.

It moved west under the convection.


Ohh.. dang it moved that fast.. Interesting storm.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
3240. homelesswanderer
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting luv2bake:
I think you are thinking of Josh Worman with the doppler truck that sat through the Hurricane. He is on discovery tornado chasers


Oh ok. That must be him. Thanks. :) I know that other guy Reed went through Rita. Interesting video I saw of that but not a lot of actual storm footage because it was night of course.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3238. bird72
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting surfmom:


Yes, Danielle will be leaving you her dance card....LuckyMAN, those initial waves would be out of my league for sure..I'd have to wait for the left overs.
I'm curious about waves/surf in PR - are you near Rincon or Isabella ? - wondered what the wind and wave height will be....do you have a suggestion for a good local surf site to check this out? (WUmail me)



http://www.surfrider.org/rincon/index.php
Member Since: 5.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 389
3236. SeaMule
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:19 (GMT)
wasn't Andrew a fish storm?
Member Since: 29.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
3235. Stormchaser2007
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:19 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Notice something here, how the center dissipated at the end of the convection, the NHC should relocate the center where the eye is at. Remember we were tracking the center to the east of all that convection last night, not it has relocated inside the convection and popped an eye. This should make a more westward motion for a while, since it has relocated a bit more to the west, going by obs.


The center never dissipated.

It moved west under the convection.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
3234. Chicklit
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:19 (GMT)


Hi Kman, at least Danielle will not be entering your territory!
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
3233. caneswatch
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
Tropical Storm DANIELLE FISH STORM 100% AND NEXT INVEST 96L BOTH FISH STORMS.


That's an awfully high statement. Here's my take: Danielle is still a little up in the air on track, and as for the wave behind, it's future track is looking west, for now.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
3232. TexasHoosier
23. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
I was reading somewhere that they were going to be tying out a drone this year that could stay in storms for 15 hours. I think that was out in CA though, so they may be trying it on EPac storms - anyone have additional info?


I believe NOAA has acquired a Global Hawk drone that was designed by Teledyne Ryan (now part of Northrop Grumman Corp)located by Lindberg Field in San Diego. The Global Hawk was designed for long endurances and is usually flying at 60,000 Feet or so. It has been flown from California to Australia non-stop in a demo to the Australian military.

Also, some very different and really interesting graphics from Stormchaser - good job! Do you have the link to the color EUMETSAT image that you can share?

And I am looking for a good pressure gradient map for the US, stretching across the Atlantic and Caribbean. One that is easy to read, so as to make it simple to identify the High (Ridge) Pressure and Low (Trough) Pressure systems graphically for forecasting purposes.

Got any ideas, links, anyone?

Thanks
Member Since: 3.12.2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 113

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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