Colin ready to re-form; TSR keeps their Atlantic hurricane forecast numbers high

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5. elokuuta 2010 klo 13:54 (GMT)

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The remains of Tropical Storm Colin continue to generate heavy thunderstorm activity over the waters a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the storm is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Despite the high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, Colin's remains have grown more organized during the past day, and a low-level circulation has formed. A pass of the Windsat satellite last night revealed that ex-Colin is already generating tropical storm force winds of 40 mph in isolated regions. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage this morning, and a low level circulation that may or may not persist has formed near 23.5N 65.5W (Figure 1.)

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 10 - 20 knots on Friday. This relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next three days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. A major trough of low pressure will move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the north and cause it to slow down. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 2 pm EDT this afternoon. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains show a low-level circulation, exposed to view, has formed at the edge of a region of heavy thunderstorms.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) a few hundred miles south of Jamaica is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday and the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model is predicting that a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday will develop into a tropical depression early next week. None of the other models is showing any obvious tropical cyclone development over the coming week. The current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Atlantic favors upward motion and enhanced probabilities of tropical storm formation, so it would not be a surprise to see a new tropical depression form next week between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.

TSR keeps their forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season high
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) joins CSU in calling for a very busy Atlantic hurricane season. The latest TSR forecast issued August 4 calls for 17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes, 4.5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 183% of average (assuming an ACE of 101 is average.) These storm numbers are a slight drop from their July 6 forecast of 19.1 named storms, 10.4 hurricanes, and 4.8 intense hurricanes, but this is still a very aggressive forecast. The 50-year average is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 96% chance that this season will have an above-average ACE index, and only 4% chance it will be near normal. TSR rates their skill level for August forecasts as 51% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 64% skill for hurricanes, and 47% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 5.7 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. TSR's skill in making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 19% - 23% above chance. They give an 89% chance that the U.S. landfalling ACE index will be above average. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.8 named storms, 0.8 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for keeping their numbers high: below-average trade winds and near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. TSR expects trade winds in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean) to be 1.53 meters per second (about 3.4 mph) slower than average in this region, which would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up, due to decreased mixing of cold water from the depths and reduced evaporational cooling.

Forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season
Here are the number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecast groups in their late May or early June forecasts:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU COAPS dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

And here are the new late July/early August forecast numbers so far:

15 named storms, 8 hurricanes: FSU COAPS dynamical model (July 15 forecast)
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes, 4.5 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique (Note: TSR had higher numbers of 19.1, 10.4, and 4.8 in their July 6 forecast)

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2723. weathermanwannabe
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


IMO, the ULL N of Colin is a shallow, weak feature that really won't steer it (but I do agree that this may be the cause of this morning's decoupling). The ULL over eastern Canada is more substantial because it has major surface reflections (i.e. it supports surface front and extratropical low). Thus, its influence is more deep-layered, and I think it will curve Colin more eastward. I wasn't refering to the ULL just N of Colin, but the ULL over east Canada bending Colin's track eastward.

While Colin keeps loligagin around, the big ULL over eastern Canada continues eastward. That means Colin will more likely end up on its south side (curve more eastward) rather than end up on its southeast side (which would keep it on a more northeastward track).


I hear ya; but it might be whatever is "left" of Colin............ :)
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
2722. Neapolitan
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:11 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
2721. wunderkidcayman
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:04 (GMT)
guys couple of things before I go

1 92L is making a comback look like to at 16.5N 82.5W

2 93L might not become a fish and maybe impact the leeward Islands

3 colin seems to be moving east now

4 pre-94L what is going on !?!?
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9560
2720. PanhandleChuck
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know what's funny? Alex, TD2, and Bonnie are all ignored in that statement. Colin's going out to sea thanks to a unseasonable trough, 93L might follow, 'might', as the models are now starting to shift westward. One or two systems are not a indicator of the season.


Teddy --- That guy became #40 on my list. I truly am now a firm believer that the ignore list is the way to go, my blood pressure was only 130 over 85 this morning and I contribute that to the 100% increase on that list over the last couple of days... LOL
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
2719. MiamiHurricanes09
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:58 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2718. pottery
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I peeked and there's no junk in his trunk.

sheri

:):)
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
2717. catastropheadjuster
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


I think this is only temporary...Mother Nature going "na nana...na na"



Storm that was funny
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
2716. MiamiHurricanes09
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:55 (GMT)
The NHC forecasts Colin to become a 70mph tropical storm in 72 hours before making an extratropical transition.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2715. SLU
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:55 (GMT)
NOW TIME TO VACATE THE OLD BLOG!
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4733
2714. catastropheadjuster
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

No peeping...........


I peeked and there's no junk in his trunk.

sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
2711. MiamiHurricanes09
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:52 (GMT)
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 6
Location: 27.1°N 66.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: ENE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2710. Thaale
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 061449
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

COLIN SHOWS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS BY 20-25 KT
OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK AND AMSU SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAIN NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE COLIN
AROUND 18Z TODAY.

JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CENTER OF COLIN TOOK A SHARP
TURN TO THE RIGHT...AND IT HAS BEEN MOVING 065/6 FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OF HIGHER PRESSURES TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
WEST SUPPORT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
THAT MOTION SHOULD BRING COLIN NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE WESTERLIES...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME
SPREAD IN THE SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER NOGAPS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION AND IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET
AND ECMWF. SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG COLIN CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION.

SHEAR FORECASTS FROM THE SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CURRENT SHOULD SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS FORECAST
OF 11 KT OF SHEAR BY 00Z. AFTER THIS...COLIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES
STRONGER SHEAR IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 72 HR.
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HR...
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
SHOULD BEGIN AT ABOUT 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE
THROUGH THAT PROCESS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 27.1N 66.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 28.3N 66.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 30.2N 66.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 32.2N 65.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 34.5N 64.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 39.5N 60.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 45.0N 52.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 11/1200Z 53.0N 41.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: 19.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
2709. catastropheadjuster
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:51 (GMT)
StormW- Good morning, how are ya, hope ya have a great day. i see alot of folks saying this looks like a season with recurves what do you think?

Has anyone see Flood, haven't seen him in a couple of days hope he's alright.

Sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
2708. MiamiHurricanes09
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2707. pottery
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

i wish Colin would either put some clothes on or pull the shower curtain closed.

Oh, I dont know. He looks quite, er, well we wont go there.....
Have a Great Evening, Aussie!
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
2705. CybrTeddy
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
Quoting Eugeniopr:
Ladies and Gents:

Get your reels and rods, instead of the computer models, to have fun with this fish season.


You know what's funny? Alex, TD2, and Bonnie are all ignored in that statement. Colin's going out to sea thanks to a unseasonable trough, 93L might follow, 'might', as the models are now starting to shift westward. One or two systems are not a indicator of the season.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
2704. AussieStorm
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

No peeping...........

i wish Colin would either put some clothes on or pull the shower curtain closed.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
2703. NCHurricane2009
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


It's all relative for the moment; there is a TUTT cell pretty much centered over Bermuda right now and Colin is approaching the southern edge of that cell (hence the decoupling this morning). When Colin (or ex-Colin) gets close or very near to Bermuda, the TUTT flow will shart shifting to the East (assuming is it still centered in that location) but I don't know that it will take Colin "that" far to the NE.....Just my opinon/thought.


IMO, the ULL N of Colin is a shallow, weak feature that really won't steer it (but I do agree that this may be the cause of this morning's decoupling). The ULL over eastern Canada is more substantial because it has major surface reflections (i.e. it supports surface front and extratropical low). Thus, its influence is more deep-layered, and I think it will curve Colin more eastward. I wasn't refering to the ULL just N of Colin, but the ULL over east Canada bending Colin's track eastward.

While Colin keeps loligagin around, the big ULL over eastern Canada continues eastward. That means Colin will more likely end up on its south side (curve more eastward) rather than end up on its southeast side (which would keep it on a more northeastward track).
Member Since: 15.09.2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
2702. pottery
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

aaarrrrhhhh, Colin is naked.... LOL

No peeping...........
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
2701. TampaSpin
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Just looked at all the models the CMC and NGP both take 93L further West. Interesting at the end of the NGP run is the Bermuda High starts to build back in as one can see off the East coast as the start of the rebuild.



Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2700. AussieStorm
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:44 (GMT)
Quoting sammywammybamy:

aaarrrrhhhh, Colin is naked.... LOL
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
2699. hercj
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


If they could get something out there, yes.

Well see thats the thing the DC-8 can base in Barbados and get all the way out to 40W and back. I mean if they are going to try and get cyclogen data they are going to have to be there when it starts. Right?
Member Since: 5.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
2696. Chucktown
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Quoting Jax82:
I wonder how good many on here would be at forecasting without the help of a computer model? Probably not many, because you wouldnt have models to jump on the bandwagon with. A better way to learn about forecasting is to look at the components that goes into the models. I'll be honest, I have no idea how some of these models work, i just see what they produce!! Is there any online literature about the different models and the formulas they use to determine a storm track?




Link NCAR in Boulder - a fellow alumnus is a research scientist here - Dr. John Persing

Link

my tropical met prof when I was at Millersville is now part of the FSU research team - Dr. Robert Ross
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1662
2692. WeatherMSK
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:38 (GMT)
Isn't there supposed to be pretty significant trough that comes through and would sweep 93L out to sea 5-7 days from now even if it doesnt slip in what the models are showing a ridge weakness?
Member Since: 12.02.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 479
2691. pottery
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Quoting KennyNebraska:


I agree. I think we will see many recurvatures, out to sea with no threat to land with the majority of CVs this year.

However, there's still the hot Gulf to worry about. Any stalled trough that digs down low enough could spawn off a system that winds up being a killer blow!

I hope you are correct.
But it is not possible to accurately predict how CV systems will track next week, far less beyond that....
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
2690. TampaSpin
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:36 (GMT)
In the position of 93L most systems do not recurve at that position. The recurve is usually further West as the Azores High is usually strong enough to push any system further West and then recurve. I am beginning to doubt the recurve will happen with 93L before the Bermuda High builds back in. Could be that open Slot between the two highs for 93L to go......but, it won't move there if it is not strong enough. If 93L stays weak, West 93L will move further!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2689. Jax82
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:36 (GMT)
I wonder how good many on here would be at forecasting without the help of a computer model? Probably not many, because you wouldnt have models to jump on the bandwagon with. A better way to learn about forecasting is to look at the components that goes into the models. I'll be honest, I have no idea how some of these models work, i just see what they produce!! Is there any online literature about the different models and the formulas they use to determine a storm track?
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
2687. KennyNebraska
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:34 (GMT)
Quoting Eugeniopr:
Ladies and Gents:

Get your reels and rods, instead of the computer models, to have fun with this fish season.


I agree. I think we will see many recurvatures, out to sea with no threat to land with the majority of CVs this year.

However, there's still the hot Gulf to worry about. Any stalled trough that digs down low enough could spawn off a system that winds up being a killer blow!
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
2686. JBirdFireMedic
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:32 (GMT)
I have to thank the Senior Chief again for all his experience and analysis, and patience in sharing all that with us.
Thanks StormW!
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
2685. TampaSpin
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:30 (GMT)
I'm not sure 93L will make that big turn as it seems the Models have somewhat backed off some. The A/B High could build back in and put the breaks on!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2684. hercj
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:30 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Yes. I'm gonna post on that stuff...I've sort of noticed things when the season transitions from a negative to positive and vice versa NAO. Right now, we are seeing increased re-curvature, as we have just peaked in a positive NAO.



Senior, here is a question for you. Given NASA's new found interest in tropical cyclone genesis and recon, if you were advising them would 93L be a system to try and fly?
Member Since: 5.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
2683. Eugeniopr
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Ladies and Gents:

Get your reels and rods, instead of the computer models, to have fun with this fish season.
Member Since: 1.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 251
2682. divdog
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't the only one predicting it to affect the USA, I really wish you people would leave me alone and go bother other people that predicted the same thing, even Levi messed up on this one.
If you are going to forecast you need thick skin around here.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
2681. weathermanwannabe
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Now, look at this surface map from the NWS:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

Keep in mind when looking at the surface map the ULL is centered over the southern Hudson Bay right now. The ULL is supporting a surface low with a front extending along the east coast of New England. There are westerlies along the frontal zone. So, the south side of the ULL and surface front are producing mass deep-layered westerlies poleward to Colin. I believe Colin will meet those westerlies and bend eastward with time, passing south of Newfoundland.

Now, if Colin was much further north than it is now, it would end up meeting deep-layered southwesterlies southeast of the ULL and surface fronts, taking it more NE. But it seems the ULL and front are going to be more toward the north of Colin, not to the NW of Colin. Especially this morning, Colin is taking longer to go north as it moves erratically.


It's all relative for the moment; there is a TUTT cell pretty much centered over Bermuda right now and Colin is approaching the southern edge of that cell (hence the decoupling this morning). When Colin (or ex-Colin) gets close or very near to Bermuda, the TUTT flow will shart shifting to the East (assuming is it still centered in that location) but I don't know that it will take Colin "that" far to the NE.....Just my opinon/thought.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
2680. breald
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


I was not attacking you!


You might not have been attacking him but many other bloggers are relentless in their unwarranted criticism.
Member Since: 28.05.2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
2679. BDAwx
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)
the Bermuda weather service didn't initially think it would have an impact on Bermuda.
Member Since: 3.08.2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 525
2678. NCHurricane2009
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
2003, Fabian went to Bermuda, Isabel hit the Carolinas.. again, a pattern systems like to have.


Aye, yaye, yaah... I hope that 93L and Colin aren't going to end up like your examples. A lot of those examples (Floyd and Gert, Isabel and Fabian, Fran and Edouard) have one of those storm hitting NC where I live.

Anyway, I think its a little early to know what the long-term threat of 93L would be.
Member Since: 15.09.2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
2677. TampaSpin
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't the only one predicting it to affect the USA, I really wish you people would leave me alone and go bother other people that predicted the same thing, even Levi messed up on this one.


I was not attacking you!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2676. KennyNebraska
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:22 (GMT)
I was one of the ones who had this system figured out from the get go. LOL! In the scheme of things that doesn't amount to a hill-o-beans, but what the HEY! I got it right!
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
2674. CybrTeddy
6. elokuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting stormhank:
Did anyone notice the ECMWF tryin to form some type system in GOM?? Link


Yup, StormW mentioned it in his update. Might happen.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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