Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting CybrTeddy:


It was noted on a previous blog that the ECMWF has trouble picking up smaller storms due to lower resolution, this appears to be a smaller system so it could be stronger than what the ECMWF is indicating but the track and formation is completely probable and needs to be watched as this wave tracks over the Atlantic.

Thanks. Was wondering why it didn't see Bonnie and yet it looks like they had the end of the track and strength correct. Cmc didnt do bad either. Except of course over doing the strength. The gfs never seems to see anything this season.

18Z GFS shows cape verde hurricane situated north of puerto rico on august 8th. Begins developing the system about a week from now by the cape verde islands

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here's the tropical wave about to emerge on satellite imagery.

Interesting week ahead?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here's the tropical wave about to emerge on satellite imagery.

We defiantly needs to watch this wave over the next couple of days. I'm too lazy to check but are any other models predicting development? We Also need to watch the area around Bermuda as Levi mentioned earlier.

Quoting homelesswanderer:


:) Thanks. The old caveat about getting what you wish for hardly needs to be said.

"Well I believe you may get your headlines, Mr. Ismay"

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood.

+1 KOTG , I still think climatology, upper atmospheric conditions and SST rules the roost in terms of predicting and forcasting cyclones or developing ones, yet there is plenty that is unknown. It's Nature's secret!

Quoting ACEhigh:
I don't understand the thought process of all the posters claiming this season is some sort of bust, but I also don't understand why they continue to garner responses from our more knowledgeable and responsible contributors. Give these attention hounds a big fat -, or report them in extreme circumstances, then simply ignore them. My list is 200 strong and growing. In fact, the ability to ignore nuisance posters is the only real reason I set up an account... I think you will find that this method provides for a more sane and enjoyable WU experience, and drastically reduces the xanax and thorazine budget.

Most are just trying get under your skin by going against this season's thinking. I still expect an above average season but not 20 storms or more.

Quoting Twinkster:
18Z GFS shows cape verde hurricane situated north of puerto rico on august 8th. Begins developing the system about a week from now by the cape verde islands

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Lol. Nevermind my statement about the GFS.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Interesting week ahead?

It's always an interesting week during hurricane season.

Quoting ACEhigh:
I don't understand the thought process of all the posters claiming this season is some sort of bust, but I also don't understand why they continue to garner responses from our more knowledgeable and responsible contributors. Give these attention hounds a big fat -, or report them in extreme circumstances, then simply ignore them. My list is 200 strong and growing. In fact, the ability to ignore nuisance posters is the only real reason I set up an account... I think you will find that this method provides for a more sane and enjoyable WU experience, and drastically reduces the xanax and thorazine budget.

Good post!

I fell into that trap myself yesterday, responding to idiots that were clearly just trying to rile me up.

I probably even ended up on some ignore lists myself.

Quoting atmosweather:


"Well I believe you may get your headlines, Mr. Ismay"

Call me Bruce, really. :)

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's always an interesting week during hurricane season.

True dat!

Get to close to a Black Hole...and one can slip past the event horizon..

And just Poof.

Disappear..

Just Like Dat.

"Snap's finger's"..


Snap!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The sea is too dry, eh? Is the ice too hot? Is the air too heavy?

The beer is too cold,
The daquiris too fruitiful

Quoting Twinkster:
18Z GFS shows cape verde hurricane situated north of puerto rico on august 8th. Begins developing the system about a week from now by the cape verde islands

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

GFS naturally does better with CV systems, we'll have to watch this as well. VERY long range however.

if anyone is interested about the GFS's ability to see cape verde hurricanes in the long range. They nailed the formation of Hurricane Dean 2007 from about the same time out that this disturbance is supposed to form. The GFS has a very good reputation with regards to accurately developing cape verde storms

Quoting atmoaggie:
Okay. If that remains as is, what TCs form will favor the Atlantic. But, would you say we see an uptick in total ACE worldwide, or remaining low?



Given the more hostile conditions that simply exist in the Atlantic (land, dust, shear, etc.), relative to the Super typhoon-generating West Pac, my leaning is to stay on a generally low total ACE. Does that really equate to a 20 named storm season, or close? I don't think so.

For this season to jump to the Northern Hemisphere ACE values of '98, '05, etc. (lower dots) would be quite a leap from recent or current levels. Almost appears to be something at play we aren't considering. At no time in the last 30 years, according to that plot, has N Hemisphere ACE jump from the values it is now to those of the analogue years (at least the ones from the last 30 years), though '91 would be the steepest. Time will tell.

You don't need a global ACE that high to necessarily correspond to a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. The global ACE this year will remain generally low yes, because the Pacific basins will be below normal and the Indian looked about normal in its first season peak with 3 storms. The Atlantic contributes only a small amount to the global ACE, largely because of the west Pacific, which you mentioned, which is the ACE powerhouse of the world.

We're going into a very cold plunge right now globally with this La Nina and cold PDO lining up. 2005 had high ACE because the Pacific hurricane seasons were both near-normal along with the above-normal Atlantic because we were in a warm PDO with lots of heat to share. 1998 didn't go as cold as fast during the summer, and waited until later for the La Nina to really take over that winter. Look at where the ACE graph is by 1999....way down there.

The fact is that the overall global pattern is going to be different over the next couple decades than at any time during the graph you posted. A cold PDO like this can generate a really low global ACE because of the lack of heat, but what heat is available is all bundled up in the Atlantic, where tropical activity usually sees bursts. That is the place to go for global tropical activity this year. Atlantic is the focus-point.

Quoting IKE:


Bonnie and that ULL....never could get away from each other. A lot of experts were saying it probably would, but it never really did.

Ladies, this is just proof that not every relationship you get into is going to turn out right... sometimes they just take everything you got then rip you apart....

Well According to Sat imagery on the Rainbow loop we have a squall line moving into "The Caymans" tonight, should bring some rain and gusty winds , winds been out the of SSW, WSW and W all afternoon!

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thanks. Was wondering why it didn't see Bonnie and yet it looks like they had the end of the track and strength correct. Cmc didnt do bad either. Except of course over doing the strength. The gfs never seems to see anything this season.

It saw Bonnie's ULL pretty well if you ask me. It also saw the next one in line developing over Hispaniola.

:]

When you ignore someone can they read what you write on the blog?

Quoting Levi32:
New EUROSIP July forecasts for August-September-October still look bad for the Caribbean and United States. The forecast hasn't changed for months and it is verifying before our very eyes. The storms will come from this pattern. It is almost unavoidable.

Sea-level Pressure:



Precipitation:



2m Temperature:

Oh boy. Big Sigh.

Quoting stormpetrol:

+1 KOTG , I still think climatology, upper atmospheric conditions and SST rules the roost in terms of predicting and forcasting cyclones or developing ones, yet there is plenty that is unknown. It's Nature's secret!

and she's good at keeping it that way

Quoting Patrap:
Get to close to a Black Hole...and one can slip past the event horizon..

And just Poof.

Disappear..

Just Like Dat.

"Snap's finger's"..


Snap!

Black hole or the dreaded "Blog Hole"?

Quoting CybrTeddy:


We defiantly needs to watch this wave over the next couple of days. I'm too lazy to check but are any other models predicting development? We Also need to watch the area around Bermuda as Levi mentioned earlier.

CMC not showing development.
Parallel GFS not showing development.
Operational GFS is showing development, however it takes it over the northern Antilles as a sharply inverted tropical wave.
Operation GFS 144 hours.

NOGAPS showing weak development but it is very south.
NOGAPS 144 hours

Quoting BahaHurican:
Ladies, this is just proof that not every relationship you get into is going to turn out right... sometimes they just take everything you got then rip you apart....

LMAO!! +1 best post of the evening, need a little humor to lighten up the spirits along with the Coors light of course!

Quoting Twinkster:

A hint at things to come.

Quoting beell:


It saw Bonnie's ULL pretty well if you ask me. It also saw the next one in line developing over Hispaniola.

:]

I meant it didn't show a tropical storm. At least I don't think it did. But yes I was following pre-Bonnie for a while now. And the next one also. CMC been iffy about it but has been showing both for a while too. :)

Play request Tubular Bells I'm feeling possessed by the Internets. Thank You, GW

Quoting Levi32:
New EUROSIP July forecasts for August-September-October still look bad for the Caribbean and United States. The forecast hasn't changed for months and it is verifying before our very eyes. The storms will come from this pattern. It is almost unavoidable.

Sea-level Pressure:



Precipitation:



2m Temperature:

Huge amount of heat and not a lot of shear over the Atlantic Basin through the heart of the season...something always gives in that situation.

Quoting HouGalv08:
I have to agree TH. Late May gave us some strong tropical waves, June a bit of a lull, July we had Alex, almost Bonnie south of La., Bonnie, almost Collin in the BOC. Warnings, shots across the bow. Get yourselves ready for whats to come. We have been warned.

Word.

Watch the tracks. We've seen the two main ones for the season. IMHO

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
When you ignore someone can they read what you write on the blog?

Yes

Quoting SQUAWK:


Yes

So they might not know that you have them on ignore?? Unless you say Poof of course..

Quoting Twinkster:

I was going to post that XD
And I was going to say that is as real as the patience and harmony that characterizes this blog. XD

Quoting earthlydragonfly:


So they might not know that you have them on ignore?? Unless you say Poof of course..

That's how it works.

Earthquake Information (Earthquake Information)
Issued at 07:33 JST 24 Jul 2010

Occurred at (JST) Latitude
(degree) Longitude
(degree) Depth Magnitude Region Name
07:08 JST 24 Jul 2010 6.7N 123.5E 590km 7.1 Philippines and its Vicinity

Quoting Levi32:


A hint at things to come.

The sad part is, that's the day after my birthday. :(

Quoting MiamiWarnings:


thanks, twink. now, i know its a very long range froecast, but just for laughs, if you had to speculate on its track beyond PR, given' the pattern shown on the run, where would you think it would go? just out of curiosity. TIA, :).

Levi, you are also welcome to take a stab at this question, if you'd like.

the question is where do you want it to go

Magnitude 7.3 - MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
2010 July 23 22:08:11 UTC

Versión en Español

* Details
* Summary
* Maps
* Scientific & Technical
* Tsunami

Earthquake Details

* This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 7.3
Date-Time

* Friday, July 23, 2010 at 22:08:11 UTC
* Saturday, July 24, 2010 at 06:08:11 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 6.708°N, 123.479°E
Depth 604.5 km (375.6 miles)
Region MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
Distances 100 km (65 miles) SW of Cotabato, Mindanao, Philippines
120 km (75 miles) S of Pagadian, Mindanao, Philippines
155 km (95 miles) E of Zamboanga, Mindanao, Philippines
915 km (570 miles) SSE of MANILA, Philippines
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 4.5 km (2.8 miles); depth +/- 6.7 km (4.2 miles)
Parameters NST= 93, Nph= 93, Dmin=235.6 km, Rmss=0.83 sec, Gp= 22°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source

* USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2010zbbz

Keep in mind that the eastern Pacific is behind schedule so far with 4 named storms, and the west Pacific is having possibly the slowest start to their typhoon season in history. The Indian Ocean is near-normal I believe with the 3 storms they had in their first season peak. The Atlantic is ahead of schedule with 2.

What does this tell us? The heat pumped into the tropics by the El Nino this past winter is not just going to go away. With the Pacific shut down the heat has to be released somewhere else. It has been all bundled up in the Atlantic which is why we've been seeing the record SSTs and very low surface pressures, the lowest found on the globe right now relative to normal. That heat has to go somewhere to balance the earth's energy budget. The La Nina gives the atmosphere a mechanism with which to deal with that excess heat, and that mechanism is tropical cyclones.

Quoting Twinkster:
if anyone is interested about the GFS's ability to see cape verde hurricanes in the long range. They nailed the formation of Hurricane Dean 2007 from about the same time out that this disturbance is supposed to form. The GFS has a very good reputation with regards to accurately developing cape verde storms

Rita wasn't a Cape Verde but the GFS had the TX/LA coast landfall nailed 5 days out. Obviously not many people believed it, hence the TEXODUS. :) But no I'm not advocating basing your preps on any model 5 days out.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Play request Tubular Bells I'm feeling possessed by the Internets. Thank You, GW

Wowiee, now that's a blast from the past request.

While not heavy rain, Bonnie has brought steady drips to my area. It's been steady since about 11:30 am here.

000
WEPA42 PHEB 232301
TIBPAC

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2301Z 23 JUL 2010

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 2251Z 23 JUL 2010
COORDINATES - 6.5 NORTH 123.6 EAST
DEPTH - 581 KM
LOCATION - MINDANAO PHILIPPINES
MAGNITUDE - 7.3

EVALUATION

A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI WAS NOT GENERATED BASED ON EARTHQUAKE AND
HISTORICAL TSUNAMI DATA.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
...SP...

Quoting Levi32:


For the SW Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico -1.8mb is a pretty dang good 9-month average anomaly. What matters more is the shape and location of the below-normal pressures. It's entirely believable that 2010 could have lower pressures than the analog years....but the overall pattern is similar.

And I'll post this image again from the CPC, the typical positive NAO pattern in the summer is more of a tripole pattern that actually favors lower pressures over the tropics. The numerical index of the NAO is not a cut and dried indicator of the pattern in the Atlantic during the hurricane season. The pattern is much more flexible and the oscillation can take many forms.

Furthermore, I can't really see there being anything but lower than normal pressures in the tropical Atlantic with SSTs as warm as they are, can you? Pressures are already way above normal in the Pacific like they should be due to the cold water. That has to be balanced out in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans where the water is warm.

What ur saying is making me think we should see some hyperactivity in the NInd and SInd later this year into next year....

Quoting MiamiWarnings:


thanks, twink. now, i know its a very long range froecast, but just for laughs, if you had to speculate on its track beyond PR, given' the pattern shown on the run, where would you think it would go? just out of curiosity. TIA, :).

Levi, you are also welcome to take a stab at this question, if you'd like.

well it seems based on the pattern at the end of the model that the system would go on a more nw motion after last image. This will change frequently if this system even develops at all. This far out in 2007 it had what would become hurricane dean making landfall on the east coast and it ended up making landfall in i think guatemala or belize

Quoting Patrap:
Get to close to a Black Hole...and one can slip past the event horizon..

And just Poof.

Disappear..

Just Like Dat.

"Snap's finger's"..


Snap!

Isn't that call interaction with land?