Bonnie makes landfall in South Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Bonnie is making landfall in South Florida south of Miami as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Miami radar shows that Bonnie is a relatively dry storm--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm have been just 2 - 3 inches over the waters to the east of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. Over the past twelve hours, Bonnie has sped up, and this has brought the storm closer to the upper level low. The upper level low is now bringing high levels of wind shear--about 20 knots--to the tropical storm. Satellite images of Bonnie show that the storm is being stretched into an oval shape by the strong steering flow, and this distortion is inhibiting intensification. Bonnie is a small storm, and is only affecting a limited area of South Florida with strong winds and heavy rain. Surface observations in the Bahamas and South Florida showed a number of stations with winds in the 30 - 46 mph range this morning, including Fowey Rocks, which had sustatined winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.


Figure 1. Radar image of Bonnie at landfall from the Miami radar.

Track Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has sped up more than the models expected, but they are in pretty good agreement about a continued track to the west-northwest to northwest with a landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) are very similar to the two previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. These winds, coupled with a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will result in a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands getting oiled. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predict potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday. Given Bonnie's rapid forward speed, small size, and expected landfall intensity of 50 mph or less, oil impacts on the Louisiana coast will be similar to or less than what was experienced during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days.


Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.

Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
The primary detriment to development of Bonnie will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, and Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. This is the solution of the major global models such as the GFDL, HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS. However, if the upper-level low weakens or pulls away from Bonnie, less shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially allowing Bonnie to intensify to a strong tropical storm with 60 - 65 mph winds. The more statistically based intensity models--SHIPS and LGEM--foresee this sort of scenario. I'll go with the lower intensity scenario, since Bonnie is such a small storm and will be more sensitive than usual to hostile wind shear and dry air. I give Bonnie a 10% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 8 pm Saturday at 9% (11am advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 11am EDT advisory :

Buras, LA 41%
New Orleans 32%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 31%

Moscow records its hottest temperature in history
The temperature in Moscow, Russia reached 37°C (98.6°F) today, the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city. According to Wikipedia, Moscow's previous highest temperature ever recorded was 36.8°C (98.2°F) in August 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for continued temperatures in the mid to upper nineties for the next week, Moscow should easily be able break its record for warmest July since record keeping began in 1879.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1478. cirrocumulus
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 21:34 (GMT)
Is it just me, or does it look like development starting again around the Dominican Republic. Since Bonnie is gone, the waters are going to warm rapidly again. She didn't even cause clouds or flooding.
Member Since: 30.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
1477. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 21:17 (GMT)
x
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52260
1476. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 21:14 (GMT)
its done safe to say
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52260
1475. sailingallover
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:56 (GMT)
Quoting Tazmanian:
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.


i think its a open trough right now

Look at the vis sat loop. there is an obvious but naked LLC at 26N 81.7W or right about over FT Myers..
Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
1474. centex
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:54 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL :D
We should be more sensitive to tropical waves moving west through Caribbean. I think it's supose to eventually move into bay of Campeche before turning N into S Texas. Local NWS mets watching it for rain mid/late next week.
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3217
1473. ElConando
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Had the fish creole a few weeks back. Was among the best dishes I've ever had.

Right up there with a Napoleon House Muffaletta.


Had fish creole once and it was good stuff. Too bad I got heartburn after.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1472. IKE
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:52 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1471. atmoaggie
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Bonnie's Core is currently a bunch of light rain showers.

Bonnie is currently a Td. but wait till it hits that 40KT SHEAR. THAT WILL BE ITS GRAVE.
Ummm, I could be wrong, but I think that 40knot area of shear is moving along as fast as Bonnie's core and will remain ahead of her. But, still think she'll not be intensifying...
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1470. WeatherNerdPR
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Quoting Tazmanian:
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.


i think its a open trough right now

When's the funeral? Tomorrow?
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1469. catastropheadjuster
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
1468. Prgal
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What's that South of Hispaniola?


I don't remember which model was it, but a couple of days ago it hinted about the possibility of development south of the DR. I honestly see a circulation north of the DR but I am not an expert so...who knows.
Member Since: 7.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
1467. ElConando
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Quoting sailingallover:

I looked in some depth
ULL down to 700MB
but surface pressures are high
PR radar show linear rain/squalls movement
good low level convergence and high level divergence
very high shear forcast to the west as the ULL track west
not analyzed as a trough or wave
lots of vorticity on last nights WINDSAT..
Visibel loop showing upper circulation from ULL and low level NE SE windshift.
So... nothing to soon but watch.



Shear could more favorable in around 72 hours.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1466. seflagamma
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:50 (GMT)
Quoting sailingallover:

I looked in some depth
ULL down to 700MB
but surface pressures are high
PR radar show linear rain/squalls movement
good low level convergence and high level divergence
very high shear forcast to the west as the ULL track west
not analyzed as a trough or wave
lots of vorticity on last nights WINDSAT..
Visibel loop showing upper circulation from ULL and low level NE SE windshift.
So... nothing to soon but watch.



thanks for the info!
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
1463. WeatherNerdPR
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:49 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
South America.....HHHHHAAAAAAAAAA!!!...jk ...really...jk.:)

LOL :D
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1462. angiest
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:49 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


But then see how easy it is to hide behind a 30% chance? One must ask, what is his forecast? If we're gonna use statistics we should consider the scenario that he finds most likely to occur, the 70% one, to be his forecast. Otherwise, he's not forecasting. His percent chances can be used as a guide to his uncertainty in the forecast, but as a forecaster he's going to have to make the call, one way or the other.


I draw a distinction between forecasting and prediction that apparently the people in the federal government do not (Storm Prediction Center, Tropical Prediction Center). Dr. Masters' analysis indicates a higher likelihood of some strengthening than no strengthening or even weakening. Thus his forecast is that the storm is likely to strengthen, but may not. That is a forecast. If he said, however, that it *will* strengthen and there are no other options, then he is making a prediction.

That is, at least, where I am coming from.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1461. atmoaggie
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:48 (GMT)
Quoting tvengineer8:


RIght.. the Gumbo Shop is the best... .
Had the fish creole a few weeks back. Was among the best dishes I've ever had.

Right up there with a Napoleon House Muffaletta.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1460. hydrus
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:48 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What's that South of Hispaniola?
South America.....HHHHHAAAAAAAAAA!!!...jk ...really...jk.:)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19533
1459. sailingallover
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:47 (GMT)
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
What do we think of the area over the Dominican Republic? Could there be any chance with that?

I looked in some depth
ULL down to 700MB
but surface pressures are high
PR radar show linear rain/squalls movement
good low level convergence and high level divergence
very high shear forcast to the west as the ULL track west
not analyzed as a trough or wave
lots of vorticity on last nights WINDSAT..
Visibel loop showing upper circulation from ULL and low level NE SE windshift.
So... nothing to soon but watch.

Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
1458. sflawavedude
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:46 (GMT)
yeah the season will be quiet for a while longer now bonnie was a bust just like I called it just rain with a breeze.next! :)
Member Since: 3.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 131
1457. centex
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:46 (GMT)
Quoting seflagamma:


Hi Taz, yes it does...of all the years to have all the storms in the GOM....this is the year we wish they would go elsewhere...
Early season is west or GOM, that part is normal.
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3217
1456. WeatherNerdPR
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:45 (GMT)
What's that South of Hispaniola?
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1455. 7544
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:45 (GMT)
gfs asnd ngp try to develope the pr wave but drops it but brings the remains right to so fla also more rain a coming next week
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
1454. atmoaggie
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:44 (GMT)
Is it really at all likely that the dynamical models are all collectively wrong about no strengthening? Really? Even hyper-WRF? I can understand forgetting about the 12 Z GFDL given how badly it handled Bonnie's first 6 hours after initialization...

I think Bonnie will remain a wet-spot. Nothingmore.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1453. hydrus
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:44 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Aye...peoples is forgettin...October should be above the norm.
Historically, October is our worst month in S.W. Florida. More tropical cyclones have hit us during that month than any other.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19533
1452. Tazmanian
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:43 (GMT)
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.


i think its a open trough right now
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
1451. MSInland05
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:43 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop


Pat, under the white clouds, appear yellowish, is that what you are showing with this? If so I still see a circulation correct? learning here. Thanks
Member Since: 23.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 70
1450. 10Speed
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:43 (GMT)
Quoting robert88:


I think they should of never started with these preseason forecasts. It stirs up too much hype


I agree but don't expect much empathy on this blog.

Until we accumulate a more advanced understanding of weather I personally wish hurricane predicting that's made public would be limited to one month increments. Obviously, we are not knowledgeable to the point of going beyond that yet.

Making full season predictions and then having to "adjust" those predictions more often than not seems a bit ludicrous to me.

Predicting weather events over such a long range is like predicting the NFL standings for Week 16 during the pre-season. Sooooooooooo many unexpected, uncontrollable events can transpire between pre-season and Week 16 that will affect the pre-season predictions. It happens every year.
Member Since: 14.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
1449. seflagamma
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:43 (GMT)
Quoting Tazmanian:
it seem like its a gulf year this year


Hi Taz, yes it does...of all the years to have all the storms in the GOM....this is the year we wish they would go elsewhere...
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
1448. tvengineer8
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:43 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Best food for the money, IMO, in tourist areas, is the Gumbo Shop on Saint Peter.


RIght.. the Gumbo Shop is the best... .
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1447. centex
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:43 (GMT)
It's been a fairly active early season, normally June is a bust and we get a little in July.
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3217
1445. SWFLgazer
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:42 (GMT)
That was it? I'll join with my neighbors in saying that the standard summer day has more rain, more wind, and more lightning.

Boring is good.
Member Since: 14.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
1444. Levi32
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:41 (GMT)
Quoting angiest:


And if she doesn't strengthen people will call the forecast a bust, when of course there was a 30% chance of no strengthening. Some people don't (or refuse to) understand how statistics work.


But then see how easy it is to hide behind a 30% chance? One must ask, what is his forecast? If we're gonna use statistics we should consider the scenario that he finds most likely to occur, the 70% one, to be his forecast. Otherwise, he's not forecasting. His percent chances can be used as a guide to his uncertainty in the forecast, but as a forecaster he's going to have to make the call, one way or the other.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1443. atmoaggie
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:41 (GMT)
Quoting tvengineer8:


Mother's is still open.. but the food is not good.. tourist trap really.. much better po-boys at other places :-)
Best food for the money, IMO, in tourist areas, is the Gumbo Shop on Saint Peter.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1442. sailingallover
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:41 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Aye...peoples is forgettin...October should be above the norm.
Yes the season is ahead at this point not where I expected from the early very high above normal SST's I was looking for an early ITCZ or MDR storm. 92L was the best but but didn't make it and due to dust and/or shear everything else didn't either. And we are slowly closing in to more normal SST's. Around the islands here we are now pretty much normal and inshore waters probably below normal.. After all the rain the water is "cold" when you get into it. So while I agree we will be above for the year I am thinking it will not be the very active season that was expected.
Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1005
1441. StormGoddess
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:41 (GMT)
Quoting tvengineer8:


Mother's is still open.. but the food is not good.. tourist trap really.. much better po-boys at other places :-)

Oh Lord, fine, I have to go eat now. Be back later. lol
Member Since: 10.06.2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 570
1440. Tazmanian
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:41 (GMT)
it seem like its a gulf year this year
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
1439. seflagamma
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:40 (GMT)
{{{Oakland}}} good to see you here too.. another one of the old timers back when a storm is near by!
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40839
1437. angiest
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:40 (GMT)
Quoting sporteguy03:


I have learned that simply because my house and family is not effected does not mean someone else is not effected, I won't downplay effects of any weather or mock a system especially when I have been through miserable weather experiences myself.


For the same reasons I will caution people supposedly not under the gun to keep an eye on a developing system, whereas others will state categorically it will not go to such and such place.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1436. StadiumEffect
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:40 (GMT)
1434. Hurricanes101
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:40 (GMT)
Quoting oakland:


On average about 60% of the active season happens in August and September. I'm not writing this season off just yet.


actually I would say that percentage is higher
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1433. tvengineer8
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:39 (GMT)
Quoting Baybuddy:
Patrap, is Mothers still open? My wife says it's closed.


Mother's is still open.. but the food is not good.. tourist trap really.. much better po-boys at other places :-)
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1432. Patrap
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:39 (GMT)
They moved the track from Uptown to The French Quarter..

or 7 miles east
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125600
1430. oakland
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:38 (GMT)
Quoting charlottefl:
Not saying this is gonna be a year like 2004. But the first storm didn't form then till Aug 31st, and they had 15 that season I believe. We're still a little ahead of the game, and not quite in the heart of the season.


I agree with you. On average about 60% of the active season happens in August and September. I'm not writing this season off just yet.
Member Since: 4.09.2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7525
1428. StonedCrab
23. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 20:37 (GMT)
Its Beer-30
I'm heading home.
Behave yourselves!
Member Since: 30.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 270

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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