Category 2 Alex Makes Landfall on the Mexican Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 01:27 (GMT)

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

1AM CDT Update
Alex is weakening as it moves inland As of the 1AM advisory, Alex's winds have slowed to 85 mph. Alex is at 24.1N, 98.2W which is 35 miles northwest of La Pesca, MX and 135 miles south-southwest of Brownsville, TX. Alex is moving west-southwest at 10 mph. Alex may be slowing down, but it's still producing a lot of rain. Radar-derived rainfall estimates shows that Alex is covering widespread areas with 0.5-0.8 inches of rain in the last hour. Over the past 24 hours, the Rio Grande at Brownsville has risen 10 feet, but it's still about 14 feet away from the flood stage of 27 feet.

9PM CDT
The center of Alex's eye has made landfall according to NHC. They state that 9PM CDT, Alex's center crossed the shoreline in the municipality of Soto La Marina, MX, which is 110 miles south of Brownsville. At the time of landfall, Alex had wind speeds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale

With wind speeds near 100 mph, Alex is nearing landfall on the Mexican coast. As of 8PM CDT, Alex is at 24.3N, 97.5W, 40 miles northeast of La Pesca, MX and 110 miles south of Brownsville. It is moving west at 10 mph, and the center of the eye should arrive onshore around 9PM CDT. Alex has a very large circulation, hurricane force winds extend 70 miles away from the the center, and tropical storm force winds are 205 miles away. A MADIS station located in South Padre Island, TX has reported wind gusts of 60 mph and sustained winds of 35-40 mph. We have a plot of that station's data here, and it looks like the wind speed sensor failed around 733PM CDT. Unfortunately, that's a common fate for weather stations near a landfalling storm.

One of the last eye penetrations of Alex occured at 640PM CDT, and they found an partially complete eye with a 12 mile radius. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb, a 2 mb drop since the 6PM update, and the maximum wind estimate was 94 mph using the microwave radiometer.


Fig. 1Base reflectivity from KBRO showing Alex's eye at 721PM CDT.

Threat from winds
Hurricane force winds are likely taking place along the northeast Mexican coast right now. 25 mph winds with stronger gusts are being reported in the Brownsville area. A tornado watch is currently in place for the south Texas coast. SPC shows there have been 5 tornado reports so far.

Threat from rain
Radar-derived rainfall estimates suggest that up to 9 inches of rain have fallen in some locations near Brownsville, TX. 5+ inches of rain has fallen over a widespread area in the Rio Grande valley. The NWS office in Brownsville is forecasting a total of 6-12 inches rain across the Valley, with 12-15 inch totals possible in isolated locations. Flooding similar to that caused by Dolly in 2008 is expected across south Texas.

Threat from coastal flooding
The NWS is predicting a 3-4 foot storm surge for the coast from Brownsville to Port Isabel, TX. They think the coastal flooding will be limited and not cause significant damage to property along the coast.

Next update
I'll try to edit this blog with updates as more information comes in tonight. Jeff should have a full posting tomorrow morning, and I'll likely have a post describing the flooding at my blog Thursday night.

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840. Relix
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 19:39 (GMT)
Quoting BaltOCane:


settle down now, let's all just notice this time when a CONUS hit/disaster was averted and breath. In. and Out.

Nice bright whites coming off of those. very nice... can't say they'll last. But maybe they will.

Waffles


And Mexico gets the hit. Darn am I breathing relief!!
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
839. stormwatcherCI
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
StormW, Your wisdom is needed to get a decent discussion started. I am clueless on hurricanes so during this quiet period how about some hurricane 101 for we trolls.
Not trolls. Lurkers.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
838. mtyweatherfan90
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:34 (GMT)
Quoting gator23:

YOUR RIDCULOUS! the link goes to a FAKE NEWS STORY that tries to make the point that MEXICO IS NOT just a lump of dirt, and that why are Americans relived when a Hurricane misses Texas and hit there. Read before you talk


Taking pics from Local Rivers, sorry about this. I was kind of hyperactive during daybreak and didn't press f5 while typing. My Apologies. :)
Member Since: 9.07.2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 334
837. IKE
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:32 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
836. ShenValleyFlyFish
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:30 (GMT)
Quoting gingerbabe:
The new word of the 2010 Hurricane Season. Everyone that posts a comment must use it at least once this year!



Apocryphal. Says who?
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
835. alaina1085
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Good Morning everyone!

Just wanted to say to those being affected by Alex, hope all is well and keep us posted.

The models handled Alex better then I expected. It took a few days but they finally got it right.

Caribbean has a whooole lot of moisture goin on.
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
834. AussieStorm
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
833. belizeit
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:19 (GMT)
Surprized to see alex still has a eye
Member Since: 10.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
831. AussieStorm
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Good Morning to most and Good Afternoon to some!!

It is getting very very blobby in the Central Atlantic...

Good Evening :-)
Has there been any news on damage and possible lose of life in MX/TX?
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
830. HurricaneSwirl
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Was looking back at the 2005 blogs and found this picture of Emily in Jeff's blog:



Very similar appearance and location.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
829. AlexEmmett
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting gingerbabe:

OZ is Sparious Crazy standing under powerlines
828. BFG308
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Steve Spurious is pretending to coach for S.C. but he's really just helping Florida still...
Member Since: 17.06.2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 35
826. Crawls
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Wasn't Steve Spurious a SF QB in the 70's ?


ROFLMAO
Member Since: 17.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
825. Patrap
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Wasn't Steve Spurious a SF QB in the 70's ?
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
824. CybrTeddy
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
SO GUYS ANY MODELS ARE SHOWING ANY NEW STORMS OR INVEST



Yes.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
823. BFG308
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:09 (GMT)
What worries me is that, people are expecting an over-active year, and I think that will hold true. But if the danger seems spurious then people aren't going to take the proper steps to avoid danger, and next thing you know there's another hurricane disaster...
Member Since: 17.06.2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 35
822. lilElla
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:07 (GMT)
#808 Morning IMA - I think the discussion was that Alex was the first Cat 2 in 40 years. Clear skies and 65 in S Wisc.
Member Since: 5.12.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
821. wunderkidcayman
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)
oops sorry for the caps
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9565
820. CyclonicVoyage
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting BFG308:
There was some discussion on this year having more storms similar to Alex. 456 and Levi chimed in with some good stuff, but I have a question.

If these storms are going to be more "typhoon" or monsoon-like in nature, does that mean wind speeds are going to be lower for all the storms that are like Alex? Maybe fewer Major hurricanes, but still large, dangerous storms, I would think that means the Saffir-simpson scale is *less* indicative of the danger of that kind of storm.

Opinions?


Maybe for those storms closer to land like Alex but, those Cape Verde types that have abundant time & ocean to work with are rather troubling to me if in fact we will be looking at more typhoon type storms.
Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
819. HurricaneNewbie
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)
There was a hurricane that approached the east coast of Fla during the late 60's or very early 70's. I was just a young kid at the time living in Satellite Beach (20 miles south of Kennedy Space Center.

Anyone have any idea which one it was. This was a large storm that did not hit Fla but stayed close to the shore. I had a blast flying kites and watching the spray fly over the house.
Member Since: 11.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
818. wunderkidcayman
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:04 (GMT)
SO GUYS ANY MODELS ARE SHOWING ANY NEW STORMS OR INVEST
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9565
817. weatherguy03
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:03 (GMT)
New Video Blog
Member Since: 5.07.2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
816. BFG308
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:03 (GMT)
There was some discussion on this year having more storms similar to Alex. 456 and Levi chimed in with some good stuff, but I have a question.

If these storms are going to be more "typhoon" or monsoon-like in nature, does that mean wind speeds are going to be lower for all the storms that are like Alex? Maybe fewer Major hurricanes, but still large, dangerous storms, I would think that means the Saffir-simpson scale is *less* indicative of the danger of that kind of storm.

Opinions?
Member Since: 17.06.2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 35
815. CyclonicVoyage
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Was noticing this morning that Alex runs of the GFDL & HWRF bring a weak disturbance up out of the Caribbean, similar to the Nogaps. Albeit much weaker but, they are not focused on the area ATM.
Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
814. earthlydragonfly
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:01 (GMT)
Good Morning to most and Good Afternoon to some!!

It is getting very very blobby in the Central Atlantic...
Member Since: 1.07.2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1681
813. Orcasystems
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 14:01 (GMT)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
812. hurricanehanna
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Quoting smmcdavid:
Yes, hurricane Allison in June 1995 was a cat 1.


okay - I must have heard something wrong this AM then, listening to the news. It did sound odd
Member Since: 5.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
811. texascoastres
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:52 (GMT)
Thanks IMA was checking that last night
Member Since: 28.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
810. BenBIogger
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:


Most global models currently have a strong ridge over the Northeast, US and eastern Canada developing around July 5-7 and persisting for a while. That is a very ripe pattern for US hits.. especially FL and the Southeast coast.



Yup,Should be interesting if that pattern continues through August and September.

Wonder if the -NAO will continue on through the season.
Member Since: 19.03.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
809. smmcdavid
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Yes, hurricane Allison in June 1995 was a cat 1.
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
808. smmcdavid
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanehanna:
morning all....I see the blog is suffering from....something....not sure what to call it. Glad and sorry at the same time Alex made it inland. I feel sorry for those in it's path that may have had no clue it was coming. NHC did a great job of calling it. Had it really been 40 years since we had a hurricane in June???


I thought there was a June hurricane in 1995...
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
807. guygee
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
Media are comparing Alex damages and power with Hurricane Gilbert. Expecting even double its rainfall. :S
Most of us are watching your area and hoping for your safety. Please keep us updated on conditions and let us know you are OK.

A lot of people here have experienced a hurricane and come here to keep an eye out for their own area. Some of the people here just think they want to watch a hurricane blow off their roof, others are fascinated about the power of the tropical cyclones from a theory standpoint but don't care what happens after the storm peaks and hits land. (Not all exclusive). Sorry if I missed someone.
Member Since: 16.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
806. beell
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Re: Post 799
3 days later.

TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...RAWINSONDE DATA THIS MORNING SHOW HEIGHT RISES FROM
850-500 MB OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...INDICATING THE LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IN THIS AREA IS STRENGTHENING...

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
805. IMA
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Good morning! For those who were concerned about the NFIP (National Flood Insurance Program), here is something hot of the press:
"...the NFIP should now return to normal operations and, since the extension is also retroactive, any new policy applications or renewals that were signed and submitted during the hiatus will be effective from the date of application (or in the case of waiting periods, the waiting period will start from the date of application)."
Full story here
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1261
803. HurricaneNewbie
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
StormW, Your wisdom is needed to get a decent discussion started. I am clueless on hurricanes so during this quiet period how about some hurricane 101 for we trolls.
Member Since: 11.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
802. gingerbabe
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting Crawls:
Spurious
spu·ri·ous   /ˈspyʊəriəs/ Show Spelled[spyoor-ee-uhs] Show IPA
–adjective
1. not genuine, authentic, or true; not from the claimed, pretended, or proper source; counterfeit.
2. Biology . (of two or more parts, plants, etc.) having a similar appearance but a different structure.
3. of illegitimate birth; bastard.


The new word of the 2010 Hurricane Season. Everyone that posts a comment must use it at least once this year!
Member Since: 27.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
801. Patrap
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:39 (GMT)
NOAA Gulf of Mexico oil spill trajectory forecasts for Thursday through Saturday
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
800. pcola57
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:39 (GMT)
Decent Supplamental Link...(Road Less Traveled...Always up...never dissapoints...overlays and features.. Link
Member Since: 13.08.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6650
799. beell
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:39 (GMT)
But in all fairness to the NHC forecaster-he was right. The ridge did not erode. In fact it built back in stronger across the northern gulf coast. His interpretation of the GFS was non-spurious.

TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THESE MODELS TAKE ALEX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.

GIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
798. hurricane23
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Quoting BenBIogger:
FIM develops a small system in the GOM.
120 Hr



A very scary A/B High setup. (Long Range)
240 Hr


Most global models currently have a strong ridge over the Northeast, US and eastern Canada developing around July 5-7 and persisting for a while. That is a very ripe pattern for US hits.. especially FL and the Southeast coast.

Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
797. Crawls
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:36 (GMT)
#791 and #793

You have met the requirement for the year!!! LOL
Member Since: 17.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
796. hurricanehanna
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:35 (GMT)
morning all....I see the blog is suffering from....something....not sure what to call it. Glad and sorry at the same time Alex made it inland. I feel sorry for those in it's path that may have had no clue it was coming. NHC did a great job of calling it. Had it really been 40 years since we had a hurricane in June???
Member Since: 5.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
795. mfaria101
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Wow, what a difference, its nice to see the blog slow down to a pace I can keep up with (and keep my job)
Member Since: 29.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
794. guygee
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Quoting skkippboo:
The link above in the blog post for the radar derived rainfall estimates has already reset to July 1 showing no rainfall for S. Tex. Does anyone know how to find yesterday's image, or maybe could post it on here? I live in S. Texas and wanted to see/save the final image after most of the rain had passed, but poof, its gone already.
Good morning all.

Here is my favorite source for precipitation estimates over the US: NOAA Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service (AHPS). Multi-sensor corrected by observations, with a lot of time and location options. Here is another link for RFC precipitation where you can go back 120 hr.
Member Since: 16.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
793. HurricaneNewbie
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:32 (GMT)
Quoting Crawls:
Spurious
spu·ri·ous   /ˈspyʊəriəs/ Show Spelled[spyoor-ee-uhs] Show IPA
–adjective
1
3. of illegitimate birth; bastard.


The new word of the 2010 Hurricane Season. Everyone that posts a comment must use it at least once this year!


The single mother had a spurious child that was curious.
Member Since: 11.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
792. HurricaneNewbie
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:29 (GMT)
If you are bored we can always go back to the infamous Climate Change topic that is worn out during the winter. j/k
Please don't.
Member Since: 11.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
790. Crawls
1. heinäkuuta 2010 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Spurious
spu·ri·ous   /ˈspyʊəriəs/ Show Spelled[spyoor-ee-uhs] Show IPA
–adjective
1. not genuine, authentic, or true; not from the claimed, pretended, or proper source; counterfeit.
2. Biology . (of two or more parts, plants, etc.) having a similar appearance but a different structure.
3. of illegitimate birth; bastard.


The new word of the 2010 Hurricane Season. Everyone that posts a comment must use it at least once this year!
Member Since: 17.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 272

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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