Alex Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 02:57 (GMT)

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift.

430AM EDT Update
The 400AM EDT advisory package has hit the wires. Alex' center of circulation is located at 23.3N, 95.1W, which is 175 miles east of La Pesca, MX and 235 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. Alex is responding to a weakness in the ridge to it's north, the storm motion has shifted to WNW at 7 mph. The winds are unchanged from the 100AM advisory, they are still 80 mph. However, Alex continues to deepen it's pressure, the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Hurricane force winds now extend to 30 miles away from the center, and tropical force winds extend to 200 miles from the center. Alex is currently over warm ocean waters and under weak vertical shear, so the winds are forecast to increase. However, given the strength of Alex's central pressure, there is a small possibility of a rapid intensification of an additional 35 mph.

I haven't changed my risk assessment with this advisory. Flooding from rain still remains the greatest hazard posed by Alex. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the coast later this morning. People should plan on finishing their outdoor preparations by this time.

150 AM Update As of the 100AM EDT advisory, Alex is at 23.1N, 94.8W. The minimum central pressure is 972 mb, and the winds have increased to 80 mph. Alex is slowly moving westwards at 5 mph in an "erratic" fashion.

As of the 11PM EDT advisory, NHC has upgraded Alex to a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 973 mb. Alex's center is at 23.1N, 94.8W, which is 255 miles south of Brownsville, TX and 195 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, MX. Alex is moving westwards at 9 mph. Alex is expected to slightly alter it's course to the WNW before making landfall south of the Rio Grande. The winds are also forecast to pick up to 90 mph before landfall. In any event, mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for recreational vehicles and other high-profile vehicles in county parks on South Padre Island. A voluntary evacuation is in place for residents of South Padre Island and Port Isabel.

Threat from storm surge
NHC is forecasting a 3-5 foot storm surge north of the eye as Alex makes landfall.

Threat from wind
NWS forecasters expect that damage from Alex's winds will be limited to the southern counties of Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo. Hurricane force winds extend 15 miles from the storm center, but tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. This is a rather large circulation. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring southern Texas for the threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as Alex makes landfall. I'd expect a tornado watch to be issued around noon CDT.

Threat from rain
This is the most significant impact from Alex. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected over northern Mexico/southern Texas with 20 inches possible in some locations. There will be flooding from this storm. If more than 5 inches fall in 6 hours, there will likely be flash flooding. The NWS office in Brownsville is advising people who were flooded out by Dolly in 2008 to evacuate to higher ground now.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for Alex's passage over the Yucatan peninsula on June 28, 2010. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center.

Alex is the first Atlantic June hurricane since 1995's Allison. The storm tally for that season was 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. It will be interesting to see how this season compares to 1995.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday evening/night. Jeff will have an update sometime tomorrow morning.

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1591. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 21:32 (GMT)
01L/H/A/C2
MARK(APPROACHING LANDFALL)
24.6N/97.1W
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
1590. redwagon
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 21:29 (GMT)
Saved as favorite - Thank You!
Member Since: 4.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2804
1589. NortheastGuy
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 18:04 (GMT)
To follow the NHC forecast path Alex is going to have to slam on it's brakes and make a sharp left, after speeding up a little to the NW.
Member Since: 26.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 86
1588. StormChaser81
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 16:39 (GMT)
Quoting watchingnva:


definitely a shift...still going to Mexico...


Probably a decent wobble. It;s going to continue to wobble too.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1587. Asta
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1586. ShenValleyFlyFish
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Quoting watchingnva:


definitely a shift...still going to Mexico...


You'd best be putting up a big disclaimer and cropping out their logo you go coloring on government maps.
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1585. snotly
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 15:00 (GMT)
I wonder if the storm can wobble if most of the convection gets forced to one side because of dry air.
Member Since: 27.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
1584. WindNoise
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Quoting mcluvincane:



That should put a kinck in the NHC projected path This could get real interesting.

If that is true should New Orleans Start Evac? Way to soon to say east movement.
Member Since: 19.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
1583. blueyedhrlyridr
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
With the steering bieng so weak, is there a chance this storm could possibly ride up the coast. Just curious
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 76
1582. Asta
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:42 (GMT)
GOM GOES Funktop
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1581. Asta
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:40 (GMT)
CIMSS MIMIC LINK
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1580. Asta
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:36 (GMT)
GOES FULL DISC
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1579. Asta
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:34 (GMT)
IR
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1578. Asta
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:33 (GMT)
WATER VAPOR
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1577. LaCoast
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:31 (GMT)
Hey STORMW
Could you give us your thoughts on this supposed weakness in the ridge. Even if it exists does it really have a major influence on the steering of Alex. I don't see a stall and I don't see a true NW. I still see a WNW. Just a reminder to all picking apart the SAT's frame by frame is very deceiving. The earth is round and huge.
1576. txalwaysprepared
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:30 (GMT)
No northwishing here... Some would just like to know how much weather we will get from this storm. The further north it goes the more severe/weather some of us will get. 100 miles can make a difference
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1575. watchingnva
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)


definitely a shift...still going to Mexico...
Member Since: 7.09.2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1475
1574. MiamiHurricanes09
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1573. HurricaneNewbie
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
new blog
Member Since: 11.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
1571. MiamiHurricanes09
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting Max1023:
1556 - No, it is still moving NW-NNW, the intermediate position was based on satellite estimates and was off a couple tenths of a degree. It is moving slowly however.
Just pointing out the coordinates between center fixes, and I believe that the 8AM advisory position was from Recon and not satellite. Either way Alex seems to be moving very slowly.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1570. jpsb
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
958.3mb pressure reading was located at: 23.4°N 95.2°W. The 8AM intermediate advisory center fix was at: 23.4°N 95.3°W.

Alex is obviously stationary, and believe it or not drifting slowly eastward.
Looking at Pat's radar, motion appears to be NW. Are you seeing something different?
Member Since: 30.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
1569. RitaEvac
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
from radar view, the eye from an Xtrap point of view would take it north of Brownsville
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
1568. reedzone
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Just woke up, pointed my curser at the center of the storm of the floater from last night, refreshed it, and it has moved an inch! Not just that, but a NW movement, Amazing storm.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1567. nrtiwlnvragn
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
1566. mcluvincane
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
958.3mb pressure reading was located at: 23.4°N 95.2°W. The 8AM intermediate advisory center fix was at: 23.4°N 95.3°W.

Alex is obviously stationary, and believe it or not drifting slowly eastward.



That should put a kinck in the NHC projected path. This could get real interesting.
Member Since: 2.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
1565. mtyweatherfan90
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting FLdewey:
Geez the Northwishing won't stop until landfall in Mexico... heck maybe even after landfall.


LOL! True! ;)
Member Since: 9.07.2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 334
1564. NewYork4Life
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


if we get into 930's that usually is equal to cat 4/5 right


900mb is not out of the question..
Member Since: 11.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
1562. Max1023
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)
1556 - No, it is still moving NW-NNW, the intermediate position was based on satellite estimates and was off a couple tenths of a degree. It is moving slowly however.
Member Since: 22.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 286
1561. weathermanwannabe
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Always good to remember that a few degrees of variation or wobble, as a storm is approching landfall, can mean a difference of a few hundred miles in terms of the eyewall...But, to my eyes, the current "drift" appears to be towards the North a bit but still within the cone.....Agree with Storm that we might see a general "border" area landfall give or take a hundred miles on either side (more impacts felt in Texas).
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
1559. cyclonekid
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)
7am CDT Intermediate Advisory
Information via the National Hurricane Center







Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1715
1558. Orcasystems
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:23 (GMT)
If I lived close to Brownsville Texas.. this northern shift would bother me... a lot



AOI
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1557. powerlineman2
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
its goin to mexico accept it and move on
Member Since: 24.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1556. MiamiHurricanes09
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
958.3mb pressure reading was located at: 23.4°N 95.2°W. The 8AM intermediate advisory center fix was at: 23.4°N 95.3°W.

Alex is obviously stationary, and believe it or not drifting slowly eastward.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1555. Patrap
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 14:15Z
Date: June 30, 2010
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 49



14:15:00Z 23.933N 95.367W 844.0 mb

(~ 24.92 inHg) 1,158 meters

(~ 3,799 feet) 962.5 mb

(~ 28.42 inHg) - From 122° at 62 knots

(From the ESE at ~ 71.3 mph)
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
1554. Thundercloud01221991
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
turned into NE quadrant meaning we will see how high these winds are... before 11 AM
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1553. Skyepony (Mod)
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:20 (GMT)
958.3 mb
(~ 28.30 inHg)

23.817N 95.417W


That's more N than W of the last fix
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
1552. Thundercloud01221991
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
When it peaks prior to landfall you will likely see some 949-940mb readings, you might even see some 930s.


if we get into 930's that usually is equal to cat 4/5 right
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1550. MiamiHurricanes09
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



Im sorry I was referring to peak strength
When it peaks prior to landfall you will likely see some 949-940mb readings, you might even see some 930s.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1549. Patrap
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)




Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
1548. HurricaneSwirl
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)
000
URNT15 KNHC 301415
AF306 1101A ALEX HDOB 49 20100630
140530 2350N 09526W 8432 01134 9589 +216 +216 036005 011 002 004 03
140600 2349N 09525W 8426 01137 9583 +224 +218 229006 009 999 999 03
140630 2350N 09523W 8436 01131 9588 +219 +219 163012 015 004 004 03
140700 2350N 09522W 8429 01138 9588 +217 +217 180019 021 999 999 03
140730 2349N 09520W 8436 01142 9601 +212 +212 190036 047 038 007 03
140800 2348N 09519W 8430 01161 9619 +209 +209 195059 061 052 008 03
140830 2348N 09517W 8436 01178 9644 +209 +209 196064 066 055 010 03
140900 2347N 09516W 8425 01201 9655 +209 +209 198064 065 999 999 03
140930 2347N 09516W 8425 01201 9650 +207 +207 203059 060 053 013 03
141000 2347N 09519W 8420 01184 9631 +208 +208 208054 059 052 010 03
141030 2347N 09521W 8428 01161 9616 +210 +210 216037 041 044 010 03
141100 2348N 09522W 8430 01151 9607 +211 +211 216024 027 029 005 03
141130 2349N 09524W 8428 01148 9600 +213 +213 196012 016 012 005 03
141200 2349N 09526W 8438 01137 9601 +211 +211 052003 007 010 005 03
141230 2350N 09527W 8425 01151 9599 +216 +215 025013 014 999 999 03
141300 2351N 09527W 8425 01153 9600 +220 +217 053012 013 007 005 03
141330 2352N 09526W 8435 01141 9600 +215 +215 095018 020 013 005 00
141400 2353N 09525W 8424 01153 9601 +214 +214 116030 039 030 006 00
141430 2355N 09524W 8434 01150 9608 +217 +217 119051 055 047 006 00
141500 2356N 09522W 8440 01158 9625 +213 +213 122062 065 056 008 00
$$
;


958.3 I was close
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1547. primadonnagirl
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)
i doubt this is going to mexico, either lousianna or texas.
1546. beell
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)
12Z NAM would suggest that the general track forecast for Alex is still valid as ridging slowly builds to the S over TX.

2 frames from the 500mb 12Z NAM. Note the position of the 588 isohyte at 12Z (7AM CDT) and 00Z Thur (7PM tonight CDT). Certainly not a killer ridge but enough to suggest Alex will take a very gentle curve towards the beach. I'll guess landfall approx 50 miles S of Brownsville.

12Z soundings across the TX coast (and inland some) place the current weakness along the Rio Grand Valley.


Link


Link
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15324
1545. Skyepony (Mod)
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting hercj:

Sky, have you noticed the last two fixes have been NW and if im looking at the flight path right this one is going to be NW as well?


This next one may show a little wobble south..they are already south of the last fix..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
1544. jpsb
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanehanna:
One thing I have learned on here - these systems will wobble back and forth before landfall. A wobble to the north does not mean it's moving to the north...you'de have to wait a while to see a change in it's direction.
Very true, a wobble or two does not mean a change in direction. (I hope)
Member Since: 30.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
1543. Thundercloud01221991
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Unlikely. They are only a couple miles from the eye. I'm thinking more towards 953mb-958mb.



Im sorry I was referring to peak strength
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1542. HurricaneSwirl
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Unlikely. They are only a couple miles from the eye. I'm thinking more towards 953mb-958mb.


I'm thinking 957. just a guess :)
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1541. txalwaysprepared
30. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Galveston/Clear Lake area will be pounded soon by some of Alex. (not sure I know how to post radar)
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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