Alex still not a hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:19 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Alex continues to slowly grow more organized as it heads towards the Texas/Mexico border. Satellite loops continue to show a slow increase in Alex's heavy thunderstorms and low level spiral bands. An impressive large thunderstorm with very cold tops has erupted near Alex's center in the past hour, and this may be a "hot tower" that presages the formation of an eye. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 6:29am CDT found a central pressure of 982 mb, which is a typical Category 1 hurricane pressure. However, as of 9am CDT, the Hurricane Hunters has still not found hurricane-force winds at the surface in Alex. The clockwise flow around an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex is bringing about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear to the storm, which is slowing intensification. Heavy thunderstorm activity is still limited on the storm's northwest side, thanks to the shear and some dry continental air flowing off the coast of North America. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29°C.

Impacts
Hurricane local statements with projections for how Alex will affect the coast are now being issued by the National Weather Service in Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Since Alex is a large storm, it will have a storm surge that will affect most of the South Texas coast. NHC is giving a 30% - 40% chance of a storm surge of at least 4 feet affecting the Brownsville area, and 10% - 20% chance the surge will exceed 5 feet. In theory, a Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph can bring a storm surge of up to 8 - 9 feet to the Southern Texas coast (Figure 1.) Of course, flooding damage from the expected 10 - 20 inches of rain from Alex will also be a major concern, as will wind damage. The combined wind, surge, and flooding damage from 2008's Hurricane Dolly, which hit near Brownsville, were about $1.05 billion. Dolly was a Category 2 hurricane offshore that weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds when it made landfall. I expect Alex will be similar in its impacts to Dolly, though Alex's storm surge damage is likely to be greater.


Figure 1. Maximum Water Depth (storm tide minus the elevation of the land it is passing over) computed using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. The "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of five feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is ten feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide, and thus shows the worst-case inundation scenarios for a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane moving WNW at 5 mph. For more information on storm surge, consult our detailed storm surge pages.

Track forecast for Alex
The latest 0 UTC and 6 UTC (1am CDT) runs of our most reliable computer models did a pretty poor job, in general, of capturing the north-northwest motion of Alex early this morning, and are thus probably too far south in their landfall predictions. The official NHC forecast is thus taking Alex farther north than the models are. The most northerly landfall location, near Port Mansfield, is now being predicted by the HWRF model. The most southerly landfall prediction comes from the ECMWF model, which predicts landfall more than 100 miles south of Brownsville.

To get the probability of receiving tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds for your location, I recommend the NHC wind probability forecasts. The 4am CDT (9 UTC) wind probability product predicted that Brownsville, Texas had the highest odds of getting a direct hit from Alex:

Brownsville, TX: 84% chance of tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph), 23% chance of hurricane force winds (74+ mph). This is the cumulative probability through Saturday morning. The wind probability forecasts also include separate probabilities for each 12-hour period between now and three days from now, and each 24 hours for the period 4 - 5 days from now.

Corpus Christi, TX: 44% tropical storm, 4% hurricane.

La Pesco, MX: 42% tropical storm, 3% hurricane.

Freeport, TX: 22% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Tampico, MX: 20% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Galveston, TX: 16% tropical storm, 0% hurricane.

Uncertainty in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty
A research project funded by NOAA known as the Joint Hurricane Testbed has produced a remarkable number of tools now in operational use at the National Hurricane Center to improve hurricane forecasts and warnings. One of these projects, called "Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts", was an effort by Dr. Jim Goerss at the Navy Research Lab to improve the accuracy of the NHC "cone of uncertainty" (AKA the "Cone of Death") showing where a storm is expected to track 2/3 of the time. The radius of the circles that make up the cone are based on error statistics of the official NHC forecast over the past five years. We can expect in certain situations, such as when the models are in substantial disagreement, a consensus forecast made using these models will have much greater than average errors. Since the NHC typically bases their forecast on a consensus forecast made using a combination of reliable hurricane forecasting models, it is instructive to view the "GPCE" (Goerss Prediction Consensus Error) circles to see if the uncertainty cone should be smaller or larger than usual. The consensus forecast I'll look at is called "TVCN", and is constructed by averaging the track forecasts made by most of (or all) of these models: GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and UKMET. In the case of this morning's 12 UTC (7am CDT) June 28 run of these models, here is what the radius of the "cone of uncertainty" should be, in nautical miles:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 59 nm
36 hours: 82 nm
48 hours: 119 nm

And here is the radius of NHC's "cone of uncertainty" for their official forecast, based on the average errors for the past five years:

12 hours: 36 nm
24 hours: 62 nm
36 hours: 85 nm
48 hours: 108 nm

So, the GPCE error estimates are showing that the latest forecasts for Alex out to 48 hours are are pretty close to average.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for Monday, June 28, 2010 at 7pm CDT, with the official NHC forecast track for Alex overlaid. Alex will be passing directly over the core of a warm Loop Current eddy that broke off from the Loop Current back in July 2009. Values of TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 commonly cause rapid intensification of hurricanes. Alex will be passing over waters with less TCHP than that. Image credit: NOAA RAMMB/Colorado State University.

Intensity forecast for Alex
Alex is approaching a region of ocean with with a warm, clockwise rotating Loop Current eddy that broke off from the Loop Current in July 2009 and moved west-southwest over the past 11 months. This eddy has moderately high total ocean heat content (Figure 2.) Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and is projected by the SHIPS model to decrease to the low range, below 10 knots, this afternoon and Wednesday. The combination of low wind shear and moderately high ocean heat content should allow Alex to intensify into a Category 2 hurricane. NHC is giving Alex a 79% chance of being a hurricane on Wednesday afternoon, and a 9% chance it will be a major hurricane at that time. Water vapor satellite images show the amount of dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico has decreased over the past day, though dry air may turn out to be a detriment to Alex on Wednesday as the storm approaches land. Another factor limiting Alex's intensification may be that the atmosphere is more stable than usual right now--temperatures at 200 mb are a rather warm -50°C, and are expected to warm an additional 1 - 2 degrees by Wednesday. I don't expect Alex to stall out again, so slow motion leading to upwelling of cold water will probably not be a problem for Alex. The main issue limiting intensification will be the fact that Alex is so large, and it takes more time for a large storm to organize. Thus, I think Alex has only a 20% chance of intensifying into a major hurricane before landfall.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The last two runs of the NOGAPS model has been predicting the formation of a tropical disturbance off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday or Saturday that will move northward towards Jamaica and Cuba. The GFS model, and the two models that use it for starting conditions, the GFDL and HWRF, are indicating the possibility that a weak extratropical storm may form along coastal Alabama late this week. It is unlikely that such a storm would be over water long enough to transition to a tropical storm.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
It currently appears that Alex's winds will not directly affect the oil slick location. However, because Alex is such a deep low pressure region, strong southeast to south winds of 10 - 20 knots will blow over the oil slick region today through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting currents should act to push oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Oil will also move westward along the central Louisiana coast towards the Texas border. Alex is expected to bring a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coast in the oil spill region, which will push oil deep into the marshlands in some locations. The long range forecast for the oil slick region is uncertain, due to the possibility a weak area of low pressure might develop late this week along the remains of a cold front draped across the region.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Alex
2) A look ahead at what may happen the rest of hurricane season

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Next post
I'll have an update between 2 - 3 pm CDT today, when the latest set of models runs will be available.

Jeff Masters

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1275. MiamiHurricanes09
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 20:10 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1274. hurricanejunky
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 20:10 (GMT)
Dr. Masters talking about Alex now on hurricane haven!
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1273. Daveg
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 20:08 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Water vapor not quite as impressive as rainbow but the movement does seem more WNW now. What do you all think? Still NW?


After staring at the loops for a bit, gotta go with still NW at the moment.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
1272. hurricanejunky
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 20:04 (GMT)
Water vapor not quite as impressive as rainbow but the movement does seem more WNW now. What do you all think? Still NW?
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1271. hurricanejunky
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 20:02 (GMT)
Banding and outflow on northwest and west side really starting to improve dramatically. The perceived SW movement is the optical illusion caused by the convection wrapping around the west and southwest side. Full eyewall forming?
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1270. Patrap
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 20:00 (GMT)
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125460
1269. Daveg
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:58 (GMT)
Quoting MrNatural:
What is going on with Alex?? The various water vapor loops I watch are showing that the SW redirection seems to be more than a little jog or wobble. Alex seems to be taking on a more SW component. I have also noticed that the north side of the storm is less concentric and flattening out a touch. Is anybody else seeing that?
Link


Negative on SW movement.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
1267. cctxshirl
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:52 (GMT)
http://www.sanbenito.k12.tx.us/Interesting_Facts/interesting_hurricane.html
some interesting facts from NOAA's archives
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 333
1265. MrNatural
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:51 (GMT)
What is going on with Alex?? The various water vapor loops I watch are showing that the SW redirection seems to be more than a little jog or wobble. Alex seems to be taking on a more SW component. I have also noticed that the north side of the storm is less concentric and flattening out a touch. Is anybody else seeing that?
Link
Member Since: 28.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 216
1264. Patrap
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:48 (GMT)
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125460
1263. Daveg
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:47 (GMT)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
NHC Might have to shift south, they are pretty far off the consensus now.




Except for the fact that its not yet moving the way that last run of models says it should be moving.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
1262. TarheelNMiami
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:47 (GMT)
Quoting Asta comment#1209:


Yet folks say "Alex shouldn't be a problem with the oil spill." BALONEY! Those swells are gonna push oil deeper into the marshes and make the 'oil line' wider on the beach. We even have steady winds here in MIA.
Member Since: 31.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
1261. hurricanejunky
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:46 (GMT)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
NHC Might have to shift south, they are pretty far off the consensus now.




That would be back to where it was from the start!
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1260. Daveg
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:46 (GMT)
Quoting RickWPB:


Brownsville NEXRAD


Thank you
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 426
1258. Patrap
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:44 (GMT)
pssst..


Look up in da entry.



Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami


Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125460
1257. Thunderfoot
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:42 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Lloyd Bentsen is dead. I don't using the name of a former Texas Senator and his picture is appropriate.


Yes because you are the authority on appropriate pictures and handles.

Wow this blog has really gone down hill. No wonder Drak and a few of the others aren't on here anymore. I just decided to jump back in for the '10 season to further learn about tropical systems and prepare for the upcoming season and all it is are people bickering about BP and 12000 other things that have nothing to do with the tropics. Get back on topic people.

Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
1256. RickWPB
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:41 (GMT)
Quoting Daveg:


Anyone got a good radar perspective from Brownsville?


Brownsville NEXRAD
Member Since: 26.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 340
1254. Patrap
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:41 (GMT)
I hope Oz dont spook any Cartel Members dressed in that suit.

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125460
1253. Asta
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:40 (GMT)
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1252. wunderkidcayman
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:40 (GMT)
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
1251. weatherboyfsu
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:40 (GMT)
Good afternoon,

All I can say is WOWWWWWWWWWWWWW....

Alex is really coming together. It will not be long before he gains hurricane status if he hasnt already. Beautiful visible loop of the storm. Looks like the northern mexico will be in for some nasty weather tomorrow night.

It would not surprise me if we wake tomorrow to a major hurricane!
Member Since: 17.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1250. Patrap
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:40 (GMT)
I aint wiping no troll..


Dats a fact.

They smelly and way to nasty.

Maybe we can get BP to handle that.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125460
1249. PcolaDan
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:39 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I don't know Dan. I don't see why they wouldn't but I don't run MEXICO.


Yeah Junkie, Oz messed up, but he'll still make it in time.


From experience I know it can be weird crossing into Mexico. Rules can change daily.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1248. mtyweatherfan90
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:38 (GMT)
Quoting Asta:
IR3-GOES- WATER VAPOR


I SEE A SMILEY FACE!!! AT THE CENTER
Member Since: 9.07.2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 334
1247. StormChaser81
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:37 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Interesting how many obs are showing calm winds around Alex. Wonder if they're accurate...checking now.


(click for full size)


I really think the winds havnt made it to the ground yet, its still in the stage where pressure is droping and winds are not catching up.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1246. xcool
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:37 (GMT)
new BLOG
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1245. nolesjeff
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:36 (GMT)
Link

NEW BLOG
Member Since: 20.06.2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
1244. Asta
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:36 (GMT)
Link
Member Since: 4.07.2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1243. atmoaggie
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:36 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


Oddly I was not aware that Hurricanes (or TS for that matter) draw significant amounts of surface water in; I had always thought they push water in front of themselves
Well, the pressure deficit can give that impression given that the eye's central pressure, in a substantial cane, results in water levels a foot higher than normal, exclusive of wind effects. Maybe that is the source of that opinion?
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1242. hcubed
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:36 (GMT)
"...Ignore - Having your blog removed from the directory, removing easy access to it. This is more like a warning and typically lasts 7 days, if there are no further problems.

Ban - This is strong action, as it removes your member handle from the blogs completely, blocking access to all entries. The length of a ban is dependent upon the severity of the violation.

IP Ban - People who repeatedly circumvent bans will be the recipients of an IP ban, which blocks access to the entire site.

Troll Wipe - This is the most extreme action an Admin can take, and it is reserved for flagrant, repetitive violations of the Terms of Service. This will remove the user completely, making it impossible for them to access that member handle again...."

So Admin, could we PLEASE see a troll wipe? I'm like others here, who depend on this website to get the "between-the-NHC-reports" data, so that informed choices can be made.

I use the site for advance warnings concerning safety of life and preservation of property.

end rant...
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1241. OracleDeAtlantis
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:35 (GMT)
Quoting illinichaser:
Its about to pass over the core of TCHP of 80 kJ/cm2, from 94W west to 96W at the 22.5N latitude going northeast up to 24N latitude 94W. The more westard the track the longer it sits over richer heat, the more northwestard cuts through it much quicker, either this in combination of the nocturnal maximum, less dry entrapment and an improved CDO, we can still see rapid intensification. Im still thinking no higher than a CAT 3.

I know the vastness of the system is hindering it to strengthen quickley, but this its' last chance to strengthen significantly if its going to make high end CAT 2 or Low CAT 3.


You should be a novelist.
Member Since: 27.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
1240. Floodman
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:35 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Chicory Coffee with Cream and Sugar Babies to snack on is not a Balanced meal.


Sure it is...define "balanced"
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1239. HurricaneSwirl
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:35 (GMT)
New blog
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1236. cg2916
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:35 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
1235. ecflweatherfan
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:34 (GMT)
no prob terrehaute... and to stsimons... x definitely does not mark the spot :-)
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
1234. Dakster
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:34 (GMT)
Good thing Alex didn't have time to really organize... We could have had another Ike / Katrina type storm.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9662
1233. HoustonTxGal
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:33 (GMT)
The water surge will push inland any oil that it touches.. being it in front of the storm or to the side of it... The flood watches and warnings off LA are bad news for the oil clean up efforts for sure.
Member Since: 18.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073
1232. xcool
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:33 (GMT)
weak low in gom next week
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1231. atmoaggie
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:33 (GMT)
This is a little better, but I would toss that ob from 42002. Only intermittent transmissions and the direction cannot be right...

Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1230. Patrap
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:33 (GMT)
Chicory Coffee with Cream and Sugar Babies to snack on is not a Balanced meal.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125460
1229. terrehaute
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:33 (GMT)
ecflweatherfan----Thanks for the help
1228. CyclonicVoyage
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:32 (GMT)
NHC Might have to shift south, they are pretty far off the consensus now.


Member Since: 30.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1226. atmoaggie
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:32 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Interesting how many obs are showing calm winds around Alex. Wonder if they're accurate...checking now.


(click for full size)
Ehh, something's rotten. A couple of the "calm" obs are reporting 15 and 20 knots...
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1225. angiest
29. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 19:32 (GMT)
Quoting LloydBentsen:


Awesome. If I give them a bit more time, I don't have to mow my lawn.


Watching the radar I see what looks to be a broken feeder from east of San Antonio back up towards Huntsville and beyond. Storm motions look right. Further north and west I don't see those kinds of motions. Closer to Houston there seems to be a broken band off to the southwest - Wharton county or so.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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