Late-night Alex Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 08:02 (GMT)

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on the late shift again.
As of the 11PM EDT advisory, Alex is once more a tropical storm moving to the W-NW at 6 knots. According to the CIMMS wind shear estimates Alex is experiencing less than 20 knots of shear, so it's in a favorable location for intensification. The NHC forecast track has Alex moving to the W-NW and making landfall in northern Mexico.

Disagreement between the forecast models
As of 300EDT, there are roughly three different sets of forecast solutions for the forecast models. CMC/GFS have Alex making landfall along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, but south of Houston. GFDL/HWRF have Alex coming ashore near Brownsville. UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NGFDL show Alex coming ashore well south of the Rio Grande. As was the case yesterday, the difference between the CMC/GFS and UKMET/ECMWF forecast lies in the interaction of the trough with the area of high pressure in the Gulf that's currently steering Alex. Upper-air data from the Gulfstream IV should help refine model forecasts.

What does it mean?
The CMC/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all very good global models so it's hard to discount one model in favor for another. If you live along the Gulf coast from Tampico, MX to the Texas/Louisiana border, it would be very prudent to review your hurricane planning and preparations. I still think the chances of Alex directly interfering with oil spill recovery efforts are low.

Rain from Alex
The first satellite-derived rainfall estimates are available for June 26. They show that as Alex was making landfall, it was producing 3-7 inches of rain over the Caribbean Sea.


Satellite-derived rainfall estimates for June 26, 2010 from the Climate Prediction Center

Invest 94L
Invest 94L is no more.

East Asian heat wave continues
The heat wave continues in the Amur river valley between Russia and China. Analysis of gridded data shows that the daily high temperature in that region is 10-14 degrees Celsius above normal.

Plot of daily maximum temperature anomaly in degrees C for June 27, 2010.


Next blog update
Jeff plans on having an entry up by 10AM EDT. I should have another entry up late Monday night.

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697. CaneHunter031472
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 18:58 (GMT)
When Alex finishes consolidating it will be a monster.
Member Since: 1.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 163
696. DebunkerOfIdiots
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 16:15 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:



That might be one of the most intelligent statements Ive seen, I'm so dang sick of the school system and its worship of education.

There is so much unnecessary crap needed for a lot of degrees, and meteorology seems like it has one of the biggest unnecessary loads I've ever seen.

Man I love weather, but the schooling I'm having to go through to have it as my profession is down right absurd!


You're definitely from south of The Mason-Dixon line. All Hail The Ignorant and Uninformed and Unschooled !!! Let Mediocrity Reign Supreme !!! Geeeeeez.
Member Since: 5.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
695. MrNatural
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 15:53 (GMT)
Good morning all. Alex is not having a good morning. Seems that its' collective efforts to reorganize is being undone for the time being. I see two problems for Alex at the current time. Most of the convection is still over the Yucatan. Alex is still drawing energy from the land based convection. Until it can find a away to develop that convection over the balance of the storm, it will continue to dawdle and befuddle everyone. The reason I see for the lack of convection over the water seems to be the strength of the upper ridge between the trough and Alex. Not only is this ridge controlling direction, but it also seems to be capping the convection over water. NWS discussion out of Austin/San Antonio is also reporting that the upper ridge is not moving much at this time. This raises an important question, will the trough wash out before it can impact Alex. At this time, I do not see any significant reason to track Alex beyond the BOC for the next 6 - 12 hours.
Member Since: 28.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
694. Jedkins01
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Well, kinda...but a hurricane doesn't care if ya know Calculus, differential equations, E=Mc2 or what.

While a lot of folks are busy figuring out the equations...I'm busy forecasting.



That might be one of the most intelligent statements Ive seen, I'm so dang sick of the school system and its worship of education.

There is so much unnecessary crap needed for a lot of degrees, and meteorology seems like it has one of the biggest unnecessary loads I've ever seen.

Man I love weather, but the schooling I'm having to go through to have it as my profession is down right absurd!
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6895
693. TarheelNMiami
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)

Not pleasant weather for the cleanup folks. At least we're getting some rain here in SoFla and a break from the heat.
Member Since: 31.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
692. cg2916
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:36 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
691. bassis
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:

ummm kid what kid im 20 u _____ and im not evacuating and i wasnt freakin wanting the storm so u better keep ur mouth shut


I don't think he meant you. It was one of the wishcaster from a few weeks ago. Be Nice, Play Kind
Member Since: 8.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
690. jpsb
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:33 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Well, kinda...but a hurricane doesn't care if ya know Calculus, differential equations, E=Mc2 or what.

While a lot of folks are busy figuring out the equations...I'm busy forecasting.
I am having a hard time figuring out where one would use the Calculus in making a forecast. No doubt Calculus is used in met theories and proofs since both would be based on fluid dynamics. But I'd think forecasts would be more numerical analisses and getting an accurate mental picture of just what the atmosphere is doing.
Member Since: 30.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1021
689. jpsb
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting SeALWx:

Yes, real mets know how to show their work.
Paints the met degree in a whole new light, doesn't it?
Back in my day a Bachelor of Science degree require math thru DQ, plus some linear algebra. Linear Algebra is another fun math subject (once you write a little program to reduce the matrixes).
Member Since: 30.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1021
688. 7544
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
thanks jeff yeap that ull looks strong just east of fla looks like its trying to work its way down to the surface as it moves west so could it transition in time thats the way / sometimes they do .
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
687. cg2916
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:21 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
686. hurricanejunky
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


starts around 2 and is done around 3 pm


Isn't it the 18z that comes out at 2pm? I thought the 12z was at 8am?
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
685. smmcdavid
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:19 (GMT)
666... That about sums it up! And I gotta say, not real shocked about any of it.
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
683. pipelines
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
The remnants of ex94l that combined with that ULL has moved much further west than it was forecasted. That high was supposed to recurve this system and push Alex west, neither of which is happening.

Anyone else notice the modest amount of convection the ULL at 70 degrees is generating? A bit more than a usual ULL, they don't usually ever work themselves down to the surface but it has combined with a tropical wave and it is not unheard of.
Member Since: 10.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 225
682. Squid28
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Sorry for asking this if it has already been answered, but I was disconnected from the world for several days while in Matagorda. All I could watch for updates was TWC, and gave up doing so in frustration after just a couple of tropical update segments.

Do the current model runs include the most recent G IV data, or is it incorporated in an upcoming set of model runs and if so what time will those runs be out?

Thanks....
Member Since: 23.05.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
681. smmcdavid
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Thanks StormW... :)
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
680. WatchingThisOne
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting RCThunder:
How much has Alex moved in in the past 6 hours?


Since last night's (23:45Z 27th) HH fix just off the coast until the HH fix at 13:15Z today (28th, one hour ago), Alex moved 79 miles on a heading of 331. That works out to something like 5.4 mph.

It's now 70 miles from the nearest coastline, so it should be hitting much deeper 26 degree isotherms soon.
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
679. TankHead93
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Wow the official forecast is at the very top of the intensity forecasts. The general consensus is for this thing to begin gradually weakening as soon as today? Expect the 11AM advisory to only show an 80mph system or so opposed to 110 mph.
HUH?
Member Since: 12.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
676. nrtiwlnvragn
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:16 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
674. cg2916
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:16 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
673. muddertracker
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting SeALWx:

Yes, real mets know how to show their work.
Paints the met degree in a whole new light, doesn't it?
For sure. Math is the reason I double majored in Brit Lit and Com...lol
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2316
672. Snowlover123
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Tracks trend eastward, intensity trends downward.


You got that right.
Member Since: 1.04.2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
671. Bordonaro
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
IKE--

ya I agree it does look ragged...

Between the land and the trof... it pretty messed up...

May be forming a tighter inner core tho

About 2/3 rds of Alex is over land, or being affected by land at the moment. As soon as Alex moves further into the GOM it should intensify and re-organize gradually over the next 4 days.
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
670. HurricaneSwirl
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting Snowlover123:


Ah, models continue to trek to the East. I think everyone can agree that we can discard the model on the bottom of the forecast guidance for the dynamical models.


Tracks trend eastward, intensity trends downward.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
669. GBguy88
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:14 (GMT)
I bet that kid from Brownsville that's been dying for a hurricane is about to wet his pants. I wonder if his parents will make him evacuate. That'd be a cherry on one very bittersweet cake.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
668. HurricaneSwirl
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Wow the official forecast is at the very top of the intensity forecasts. The general consensus is for this thing to begin gradually weakening as soon as today? Expect the 11AM advisory to only show an 80mph system or so opposed to 110 mph.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
667. Snowlover123
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Ah, models continue to trek to the East. I think everyone can agree that we can discard the model on the bottom of the forecast guidance for the dynamical models.
Member Since: 1.04.2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
666. tkeith
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all! Who thinks what? Lol...
mornin :)

well let's see...Ike thinks it looks a little ragged, Storm thinks it's tracking as expected, Pat thinks he needs another cup of coffee and I think when Levi wakes up his eyes are gonna pretty red (he was up kinda late)...lol
Member Since: 1.11.2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8912
665. guygee
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Thanks for the visuals Patrap. I just logged in and kept reading the word "North" a lot.
Member Since: 16.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3060
664. RitaEvac
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting smmcdavid:
Good morning all! Who thinks what? Lol...


Rough weather for TX?
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
663. Patrap
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:


Funny Patrap... By definition that would be impossible...


Seems quotable to some though.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
661. SeALWx
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting muddertracker:
So they made you actually learn how to do all of the math on paper that the computers do for you once you become a met? Just curious.

Yes, real mets know how to show their work.
Paints the met degree in a whole new light, doesn't it?
Member Since: 2.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 196
660. jpsb
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting FortBendTX:


Once I got past Calculus III and into Differential Equations, I could not handle anymore and changed majors, although my love for studying the weather never went away. :)
Yeah Diffy Q is not easy, only time I ever got a B in a math class, Diffy Q separates the men from the boys in math. I got thru it, did not really understand it but I could solve the equations most of the time. Diffy Q also ended my "carreer" in math. Now Calculus was easy and fun! I liked that.
Member Since: 30.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1021
659. Dakster
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:


No guidance takes ALEX to the Right of the present guidance.


Funny Patrap... By definition that would be impossible...
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9765
658. 7544
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:12 (GMT)
hey jeff got a ? for ya if you notice the out flow from alex to the west of fla is nudging ne will the trof push not alex but the convection from there more ne over fla or will that conv just fizzle out thanks
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
657. Hurricanes101
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Alex would like to apologize for not looking absolutely perfect like he has the last few days

*rolls eyes*
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
656. HurricaneSwirl
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:12 (GMT)
I dont think the ragged appearance was land, I think it's the near 20 knots of NW-NNWerly shear, and the ULL is getting closer.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
654. Patrap
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:11 (GMT)
12z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
Alex
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
653. fsumet
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Don't be surprised to see a watch go up for Brownsville next advisory.
Member Since: 23.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
652. SomeRandomTexan
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:10 (GMT)
IKE--

ya I agree it does look ragged...

Between the land and the trof... it pretty messed up...

May be forming a tighter inner core tho
Member Since: 30.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
651. Grothar
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
The storm is also forecast to expand in size over the western Gulf with tropical storm force winds extending outward upwards of 200 miles from the center so Alex will become an above average size hurricane. As seen with Ike, Rita, and Katrina such storms are capable of large storm surges over a large area.


Those storms had much more water to work with and came from different directions. But I have not doubt it has the potential to be very large and powerful system, hight Cat 2 or even low Cat 3. Because of its proximity to land, this sometimes inhibits the expansion. If will be interesting to see how big it gets. Wind field is quite small now.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23749
650. guygee
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:


No guidance takes ALEX to the Right of the present guidance.
Hallelujah and good day, kind sir!
Member Since: 16.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3060
649. muddertracker
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Quoting NewYork4Life:


That sounds exactly like how my meteorology aspirations went. However, I didn't get past Calc. III. Also, falling asleep in Physics while pledging didn't help either. :)
So they made you actually learn how to do all of the math on paper that the computers do for you once you become a met? Just curious.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2316
648. smmcdavid
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Good morning all! Who thinks what? Lol...
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
647. Snowlover123
28. kesäkuuta 2010 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Looking a little ragged...sorry it's off-centered....




It is still interacting with land, keep that in mind.
Member Since: 1.04.2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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