Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana
Tropical Depression Alex has held together fairly well during its passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and stands poised to re-intensify back into a tropical storm once it emerges from the coast tonight. Alex brought heavy rains to northern Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize over the weekend. It was not a good beach day in Cozumel yesterday, as 9.25" of rain fell. Cancun received 2.05" over the weekend, and Belize City received 4.57". Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms are mostly gone near the center, though there are some impressive bands of precipitation well away from the center. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 5 knots over the storm, contributing to the 5 knots of wind shear observed in this afternoon's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is currently not a problem for Alex.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.
Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.
Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.
Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts for Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has been pretty much torn apart, and is no longer a threat to develop.
Next post
Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting an update on Alex late tonight. My next update will be Monday by 10am EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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has a strong circulation, and it's almost july, definately should be watched
You might be thinking of Lili, which was in 2002.
Taco :o)
actually I think Isidore in 2002
Alex is pushing Darby eastward.
earlier this evening, we had rain come into Baton Rouge, from just slightly southeast...moving northwest (it was more south to north). tonight, in this, it is showing the clouds going from west to east. does that mean anything?
cajun was referring to a female storm.
You think that's bad....I live in the arctic and I'm hopelessly attached to this screen when there's a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin...lol.
ah my bad, well I dont think Lili disappeared though, made landfall as a CAT 2
LMAO!! Ok, you win!
yes. that's it, it was 2002. what happened to her. that was before i blogged. did they see her "dissipation" coming? i remember waking in the morn and everyone being so glad, yet totally perplexed.
Upper level winds off the coast of Africa are not conducive for development but shear amy relax some as suggested by the GFS. Wait a few days and see.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Gorty/comment.html?entrynum=8
I admit, I'm a little puzzled there, as well. Perhaps he/she can shed some light via elaboration?
I'm trying really hard to find a storm in 2001 that was forecast to hit New Iberia, and just fizzled... Barry would be the closest, and that didn't fizzle. He/she has to be referencing Lili.
Also, I assume by "disappear" cajun meant that a rapid weakening ensued. Which it did.
maybe it just weakened significantly? it was supposed ot be a cat 5 then it wimped out
Lili didnt dissipate, she made landfall in Western LA as a CAT 1/2 storm, but she did weaken before landfall
Has alot of dust in the way. Link it's going to be interesting to watch.
Not a chaser... but my suggestion is "Drive a Hearse". Have a coffin and some body bags in the back. You can stow all your camera gear and recording equipment in the coffin. The local law enforcement probably won't look in the coffin or ask too many questions. :>)
Link
The NHC admitted that they did not foresee the rapid weakening that took place with Lili. Likely causes though, were southwesterly shear associated with an approaching upper-level trough, dry air punching into the system because of that flow, and also cooler, possibly sub-26C SSTs, near the coast, owing to upwelling from Isidore, which hit just a week earlier.
Lili is actually very good study material. Its inner core was strengthening, despite heavy southwesterly shear and dry air hammering the outer core, slowly making their way inward.
new cmc
link please...
wow. very creative.
The last ob i have is 04:43:30Z 19.100N 92.333W 925.0 mb
(~ 27.32 inHg) 680 meters
(~ 2,231 feet) 999.6 mb
(~ 29.52 inHg)
The forecast from late Monday into late week is very uncertain, all thanks to a cold front and Alex. A cold front moves south and into our area by Tuesday. The front will interact with added gulf moisture and energy from Alex. We're putting rain chances at 50% for mid week. However, both our weather and the track of Alex will vary greatly on how far south the cold front moves and how strong the high pressure behind the front will be. If it moves farther south, it should throw Alex west and reduce our rain chances by late week. If the front stays farther north, we may see more of an influence from Alex, including some rain bands possibly by mid to late week. This scenario would bump up our rain chances to high. Until the models give us a clearer picture, we're forecasting average temperatures and slightly increased rain chances for mid and late week.
ANY thoughts???
~~~~~~~~
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
A VERY INTERESTING EVENT OCCURRED WITH LILI IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IT INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY TO A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND
WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO AS FAST AS IT STRENGTHENED. THERE WILL
BE MANY EXPLANATIONS AFTER THE FACT...AND PERHAPS MANY PHD
DISSERTATIONS. I AM GLAD THERE WILL BE SOME. THE TRUTH IS THAT
NOBODY WAS ABLE TO PREDICT THESE SUDDEN CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE ONGOING RESEARCH PROJECTS ON INTENSITY CHANGE.
INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAM...USWRP.
HOPEFULLY THESE EFFORTS WILL HELP US PREDICT SUCH EVENTS IN THE
FUTURE.
FOR WHATEVER REASON...LILI WEAKENED...AND MADE LANDFALL ON THE
RAINEY REFUGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF VERMILLION BAY AROUND 1400 UTC
WITH 85 KNOT WINDS...A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. INITIAL INTENSITY AT
THE ADVISORY TIME IS 80 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA JUST TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY INLAND. THE EYE IS ON THE COAST JUST SOUTHWEST OF NEW
IBERIA AND BOTH RADAR AND AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EYEWALL IS NO
LONGER WELL DEFINED. A RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. LILI
SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 29.8N 92.2W 80 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT 04/0000Z 32.1N 92.4W 35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 04/1200Z 35.0N 90.5W 30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0000Z 40.0N 85.0W 25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1200Z...ABSORBED
AOI
The L storm in 2001 was Lorenzo
Viewing: 3201 - 3251
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