Alex may head north to Texas or Louisiana
Tropical Depression Alex has held together fairly well during its passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and stands poised to re-intensify back into a tropical storm once it emerges from the coast tonight. Alex brought heavy rains to northern Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize over the weekend. It was not a good beach day in Cozumel yesterday, as 9.25" of rain fell. Cancun received 2.05" over the weekend, and Belize City received 4.57". Satellite loops show that Alex's heavy thunderstorms are mostly gone near the center, though there are some impressive bands of precipitation well away from the center. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of Alex, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 5 knots over the storm, contributing to the 5 knots of wind shear observed in this afternoon's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and dry air is currently not a problem for Alex.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Alex.
Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am runs of the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, for example, take Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 day forecast range were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate that Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity. Residents of the Mexican coast south of Brownsville should make similar plans, as Alex could just as easily hit there.
Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.
Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts for Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has been pretty much torn apart, and is no longer a threat to develop.
Next post
Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting an update on Alex late tonight. My next update will be Monday by 10am EDT.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tomorrow morning....my best guess..:)
Okay, just trying to find something to correct lol
CMC has been the most accurate the last 2 years...
Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-027 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1730Z..........CORRECTED
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
Nice isn't it....they're supposed to continue 6-hourly flights from that point on in order to input accurate data into every model run. Apparently the NHC wants this nailed.
you can see it come back
The size of the cone is set at 2/3 of the past 5 years average forecast errors, so it does not change storm to storm or based on forecast uncertainty.
Sweet, got to get Google Earth back on.
Some of them are embedded in pages of links.
The WU tropical page (scroll down): http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
stormjunkie.com
http://adriansweather.com/
My personal favorites (somewhat needs updating): http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/comment.html?entrynum=2
Trying to nail down the track forecast. They must be concerned about Alex to be tasking the G-IV this soon.
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUN 2010 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 19:26:32 N Lon : 91:09:22 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 999.1mb/ 49.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.9 2.9
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb
Center Temp : -39.1C Cloud Region Temp : -45.6C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 19:02:24 N Lon: 91:20:59 W
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALEX
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 29/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0601A ALEX
C. 28/1730Z..........CORRECTED
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 70
A. 29/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0701A ALEX
C. 28/2030Z
D. 21.1N 93.4W
E. 28/2300Z TO 29/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 29/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0801A ALEX
C. 29/0845Z
D. 21.8N 94.2W
E. 29/1100Z TO 29/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV FLIGHT FOR 30/0000Z.
3. REMARKS: NOAA 42 WILL BE DOING RESEARCH FLIGHTS INTO
ALEX WITH TAKEOFFS EVERY 12 HRS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
(28/0800Z, 28/2000Z ETC.) OPERATING ALTITUDE 12,000 FT.
That will help with the Tuesday Solutions Kman..big time
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.9 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 75 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.65 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 94.8 °F
yup
PINHOLE EYE?!
is that a start of a small eye
Who does? But, that's the way of the world, and you can bet all you have that we've been lied to from the very beginning on this oil gusher deal.
000
URNT15 KNHC 280103
AF304 0401A ALEX HDOB 27 20100628
005400 1853N 09205W 9253 00665 9988 202 171 335026 027 036 009 00
005430 1854N 09204W 9247 00670 9985 209 167 338028 029 033 009 00
005500 1854N 09202W 9250 00667 9985 207 163 348023 024 034 008 00
005530 1855N 09201W 9248 00668 9983 211 159 349023 024 033 005 00
005600 1856N 09159W 9249 00666 9983 208 158 348022 023 032 005 00
005630 1856N 09158W 9249 00666 9983 207 157 348021 022 033 009 00
005700 1857N 09156W 9248 00665 9982 206 155 348021 021 033 009 00
005730 1858N 09155W 9249 00663 9982 208 155 352022 022 035 008 00
005800 1858N 09153W 9248 00663 9980 210 154 352023 024 033 007 00
005830 1859N 09152W 9249 00661 9978 210 154 351024 025 031 008 00
005900 1900N 09151W 9248 00661 9978 210 154 349025 026 029 008 00
005930 1900N 09149W 9249 00659 9977 210 154 345029 031 031 005 00
010000 1901N 09148W 9248 00661 9977 201 154 344024 026 032 006 00
010030 1902N 09146W 9249 00658 9975 211 154 350022 022 029 003 00
010100 1902N 09145W 9248 00660 9975 209 154 350022 022 028 005 00
010130 1903N 09143W 9248 00658 9978 188 156 348022 023 037 012 03
010200 1904N 09142W 9257 00649 9974 205 156 359024 024 028 002 00
010230 1904N 09140W 9247 00659 9973 208 155 354024 025 026 000 03
010300 1904N 09139W 9243 00660 9971 208 157 352025 026 028 002 00
010330 1905N 09137W 9252 00652 9969 207 160 355025 025 026 003 00
$$
You guys answered alot of my questioms b4 Ike landfall... so im hearing that Alex may come to the upper TX coast, What are yall thoughts on that?
Thanks atmoaggie!
Right-o.
Jui---cy
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.6 °F
LOL!!!!!!!
yes is about the best anyone can answer you for the moment.
Its a shame were are losing the visible satellite images, hopefully ir can makeup the difference..
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