93L slow to develop, but bringing heavy rains to Haiti
A modest region of intense thunderstorms (Invest 93L) is over the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola. This disturbance has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. We don't have any buoys near 93L, but pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm are not falling. A pass of the ASCAT satellite over the Central Caribbean at 9:45 pm EDT last night revealed a modest wind shift associated with 93L, but nothing at all close to a surface circulation. Top surface winds seen by ASCAT were 15 - 20 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. The atmosphere over the Caribbean has moistened over the past day, which should aid development of 93L. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The main negative for 93L continues to be lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. I speculate that it is this lack of spin that contributed to the loss of much of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity last night. The storm is now going through a cycle where it is building another respectable mass of heavy thunderstorms, and the increased inflow of low-level air that will feed these thunderstorms will likely enhance 93L's spin today. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L on Wednesday afternoon.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.
Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Wednesday afternoon, with Thursday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air absent, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Thursday, and it is a bit of a surprise to me that the computer models have been reluctant to develop 93L. The GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not develop 93L, and the ECMWF model doesn't develop 93L until after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico in a about a week. The current (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicts 93L will be a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in five days; its previous run had 93L as a major hurricane in the Gulf. Given all this model reluctance and the current disorganization of 93L, I give the storm a low (less than 20% chance) of becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 6 knots (7 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. early next week. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in the oil spill region. This is the solution of the Canadian GEM model. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF model. The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and some of the models predict this shear will remain over the Gulf over the next 7 - 10 days. However, other models predict that this band of high shear will retreat northwards and leave the Gulf nearly shear-free. The long-term fate of 93L remains very murky. My main concerns at this point are the potential for 3 - 6 inches of rain in Haiti over the next two days, and the possibility 93L could become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation elsewhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
Floods in China and Burma kill over 250
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 250 lives. The heavy rains and floods ravaging 10 southern Chinese provinces had killed 199 and left 123 missing as of 11:00 a.m. Tuesday, a Ministry of Civil Affairs statement said. Damage is estimated at $6.2 billion. Floods and landslides in neighboring areas of Myanmar (Burma) have claimed at least 63 lives in the past week.
Figure 2. Paramilitary policemen help evacuate residents from Wanjia village of Fuzhou City, East China's Jiangxi province, June 22, 2010. Days of heavy rain burst the Changkai Dike of Fu River on June 21, threatening the lives of 145,000 local people. Local authorities have ordered immediate evacuation, and the army and paramilitary police have begun conducting rescue operations. Image credit: Xinhua.
Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.
Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:
1) The latest on 93L
2) Which model is the most reliable?
Today's show will be 30 - 40 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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In the last few frames of the loop, it looks like there are two COCs here but that the one SW of PR is proving the stronger one and sapping the strength of the one SW of Haiti - although that did not seem to be the case last night.
This is why I've been wondering if anyone had a link w/isobars for the carib. If so, we could solve this problem in a second. Just look for the lowest area of pressure.
* From: NewsCore
* June 23, 2010 11:10PM
A BOAT captain working to rescue sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico said he saw BP ships burning sea turtles and other wildlife alive.
Captain Mike Ellis said in an interview posted on YouTube that the boats were conducting controlled burns to get rid of the oil, myFOXtampabay.com reported.
"They drag a boom between two shrimp boats, and whatever gets caught between the two boats, they circle it up and catch it on fire. Once the turtles are in there, they can%u2019t get out," Mr Ellis said.
Mr Ellis said he had to cut short his three-week trip rescuing the turtles because BP quit allowing him access to rescue turtles before the burns.
"They're pretty much keeping us from doing what we need to do out there," he said.
Other reports corroborate Captain Ellis' claims. A report in the Los Angeles Times described "burn fields" of 500 square miles in which 16 controlled burns will take place in one day.
"When the weather is calm and the sea is placid, ships trailing fireproof booms corral the black oil, the coated seaweed and whatever may be caught in it, and torch it ... " the report said.
Mr Ellis said most of the turtles he saw were Kemps Ridley turtles, a critically endangered species. Harming or killing one would bring stiff civil and criminal penalties and fines of up to $50,000 against BP.
Read more about BP burning sea turtles alive at myFOXtampabay.com
Senior I would expect both actually. The launch times for Keesler are 830am edt and 1000pm eastern. I don't think the 53rd has an aircraft in St Croix. NOAA research may want this. What I am expecting is a GIV mission which I do not see on the flight schedule yet. This comes more out of forecasting than Frank Marks HRD.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
For NOAA nor the AF.
Last year those budgets were combined. However, I am sure that the reason they were called off this morning is because the season forecast for hyperactivity. They are not going to waste resources this early in the season. What does surprise me though is no synoptic mission from the GIV. They should be the first out of the barn on this. Who knows.
While 93l certainly has a vast amount of energy it does not have much in the way of organization.
only a slight mid level circulation is present and frankly it is not very impressive looking.
I am thinking actually now - it may not even develop at all. Sad it is already 23 days into the season with record SST's and low shear and because of weather modification we cannot even get a wimpy Invest to develop now. Looks like Bill Gate's patents might be paying off. even though it is fairly early in the season given the massive weather modification efforts underway I like many who know am no longer expecting a hyper active season. and my guess is 93L will never amount to much.
GFS has nailed this again up to this point IMO, it never really developed 93L because it felt the energy was too spread out; which as of now is the case. Now it appears the anticyclone is outrunning 93L; which certainly won't help with development
There are no reliable computer models when it comes to genesis of a tropical cyclone. In my personal take models work much better after TC genesis. satellite imagery shows an improving look to the overall appearance of the area in the upper levels but convection still remains ill defined. There is some shear there 15-20kts but nothing to prohibitive. Still ways away from being anything to worry about.
It won't be today.
No, the navy has nothing to do with this operation.
A million barrels would be 15,000barrels per day over nearly 67days.
The cap collection only meaningfully started on 7Jun2010, only 16days ago.
As far as I know, the operation has never collected more than 15,000barrels per day when averaged over the cap collection period.
Which would make the total collected directly from the leak to be less than 250thousand barrels.
That's what I said yestrday, and I got shunned. :(
NOAA's new G-IV SP, N49RF, has a certified ceiling of 45000 feet, a range of 4075 nm, and a cruising true air speed of 440 knots. The aircraft is instrumented to measure 1-Hz flight-level data, including GPS position, radar altitude, pressure, all three wind components, temperature, and humidity. The primary instrument systems are the GPS dropwindsonde system, a main aircraft data system and local area network capable of handling specialized sensors, and a workstation (HAPS) for processing and coding the data from the GPS sondes for direct transmission to NHC and NMC via a 9600 baud (2400 bd initially) satellite communications link.
It has no surface circulation at all, whatsoever, and the cloud tops are warming significantly.
-Snowy
My baby
All the intensity Guidance has shown that since Monday morning.
Climo dosnt favor the area till it gets past Jamaica as History shows.
This
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78397.html
would be falling if 93L was developing
Check your pressure
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Aren't I a buzzkill...sorry everyone go to work now come back later
Yes that was my original point. Nothing to look at. Don't waste missions
If it has a circulation a 850 mb Velocity, then it is a mid-level circulation... I think.
-Snowlover123
Yes that was my original point. Nothing to look at. Don't waste missions
850MB is around 5000 feet which is low level
around 500MB is mid level 300-200 upper
GFS and all the others run on numbers not emotions.
That's a pretty plane. Who makes it. I might get one for the corporation. LMAO
it does not just go into back yards when it goes inland. it goes into wetlands and bays and bayous and streams. wetlands are the nurseries of most everything there is, fish and birds.
he's gotta be in management, he doesnt know how to spell "paid"
It's sad that they're not taking the extra time to save some of the wildlife. Perhaps the best thing would be if BP were blown away by a big hurricane, never to return.
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