Warmest April on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 12:13 (GMT)

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The globe recorded its warmest April since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The April temperature anomaly of 0.76°C (1.37°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.05°C. The is the second consecutive warmest month on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated April 2010 as the warmest April on record. The year-to-date period, January - April, is the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. NASA also rated the last 12-month period (May 2009 - April 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. April 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record for the 2nd month in a row, while land temperatures were the 3rd warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in April, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from April 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2010. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A very warm April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest April in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. California was the coldest state, relative to average, with its 12th coldest April. No state had a top-ten coldest April. Five states had their warmest April on record--Illinois, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey. Sixteen other states had top-ten warmest Aprils.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., April 2010 ranked as the 36th driest in the 116-year record. Louisiana, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut, and Massachusetts all had top-ten driest Aprils. Only Oregon had a top-ten wet April. At the end of April, 2% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest April drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.

El Niño is over
El Niño rapidly weakened during late April and early May, with sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling 0.65°C in just one month. This brought SSTs into "neutral" conditions, at 0.18°C above average, which is well below the 0.5°C above average threshold to be considered an El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer. This is what happened during the last strong El Niño event in 1998--El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a significantly above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the full 160-year period we have records of Atlantic hurricanes, La Niña years have typically had more hurricanes, and more strong hurricanes, compared to neutral years. However, since 1995, there hasn't been any difference between neutral and La Niña years in terms of hurricane activity.

April sea ice extent in the Arctic near average in April
April 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 15th lowest (or 18th greatest) since satellite measurements began in 1979, so was near average. However, the ice volume anomaly was at a record low at the end of April, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Wind patterns this spring have pushed a great deal of the oldest ice out of the Arctic, leaving mostly thin ice that is vulnerable to rapid melting. The first two weeks of May have seen unusual warmth in the Arctic, leading to rapid melting, and ice extent as of May 20 was the 2nd lowest on record, behind 2006, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

I'll be back this afternoon to talk about the oil spill and the tropics. I'm working on a post about how a hurricane passing over the spill might affect the oil. I'll post it if I have time to finish it.

Jeff Masters

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671. hydrus
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 23:30 (GMT)
Quoting ElConando:


I'll tell what I'm not at all confident with, QUIKSCAT. Its been missing everything for months.
Seesh.
If that new low becomes the dominate feature, the forecast will probably put the low over N,E.Florida late next week. Just a guess, I will have my crow pot ready.:)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
670. laflastormtracker
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 21:06 (GMT)
Quoting xcool:
NEW BLOGGGGGGGGGG


Hey X just noticed your avatar. Interesting. Seems like landfalls are around major metro areas, from west to east, Brownsville to Corpus Christi TX, Houston TX, New Orleans, Mobile, Tallahassee FL, Miami, Jacksonville...

This deserves a 'wow'.
669. xcool
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:55 (GMT)
NEW BLOGGGGGGGGGG
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
668. hydrus
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:51 (GMT)
Quoting xcool:
Sorry for no update yesterday, updates will likely be sporadic the next week or two, as my beautiful wife gave birth to our third child yesterday. Her name, Camille. No she wasn’t named after the infamous cat 5 storm that slammed the Gulf Coast in 1969, but it certainly didn’t decrease the attractiveness of the name for me.

An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the state starting today in the west and across most of the state the next several days as a cold front stalls out across the area and we may even see some moisture intrusion from a developing storm system off the coast which could eventually become a named subtropical storm. It certainly would likely not be a purely tropical system, as we see a 500mb trough drop in and baroclinically enhance this system. But it could acquire enough tropical characteristics to be a subtropical system. It looks like it will head west and possibly do a loop off the Carolina coast. This could lead to some windy and squally weather across the coast early next week and an increased chance of rain and clouds along with cooler temps inland. I will keep an eye on this over the weekend.

Hope everyone has a good weekend.

Allan Huffman
by^
Congratulations Xcool and God Bless.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19606
667. MiamiHurricanes09
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:45 (GMT)
IMPORTANT NEWS

18z Surface Analysis shows that the low that we were previously following has dissipated and a new low has formed with a pressure of 1012 MB. This new low's location is yet to be released but I'm assuming it is where Weather456, Levi, and all those people were saying.

Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
666. wxmobilejim
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:42 (GMT)





Member Since: 11.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
664. masonsnana
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:41 (GMT)
Quoting Acemmett90:


well its may 21 and we allready have 90L we may all be in need for a cattle prod to keep thing from getting out of hand

An early start??!! yeah, we could need the good stuff.....
Member Since: 14.02.2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 661
662. kuppenskup
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:39 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Is Recon planning to go into 90L anytime soon?


No missions scheduled as of yet
Member Since: 26.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 411
661. MiamiHurricanes09
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:38 (GMT)
Is Recon planning to go into 90L anytime soon?
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
660. xcool
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:38 (GMT)
ok thanks
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
659. masonsnana
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:37 (GMT)
Quoting Acemmett90:
I willmake an order for next month i think will need like 1,000000 grams cuz its gonna be insane jk lol

OMG thats great!! LMAO
Member Since: 14.02.2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 661
657. MiamiHurricanes09
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:36 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Current intensity guidance keeps 90L below TS strength

That's normal on the couple first model runs. When we get to tomorrow is when the intensity models begin to well normalize.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
656. Levi32
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:36 (GMT)
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26460
655. xcool
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:35 (GMT)
Acemmett90:lmao
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
654. txjac
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:35 (GMT)
Third child ....wasnt that you that posted that? I was congratulating you on the arrival of the baby?
Member Since: 24.04.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2357
653. masonsnana
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:35 (GMT)
Quoting Acemmett90:
we need to give thses people pot maybe that will calm them down

LOL
Member Since: 14.02.2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 661
652. xcool
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:34 (GMT)
txjac ?? on
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
651. xcool
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:34 (GMT)
any one got models data ???
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
649. MiamiHurricanes09
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:34 (GMT)
Convection beginning to rise again.

Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
648. kuppenskup
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:33 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
This blog is starting to remind me what it usually is like in the summertime.


We've only just begun to blog. Satellite Pictures and Air Force Recon, We'll find a place where there's room to type. And yet we've just begun. Before the rising sun we smile, so many words to type. We'll start off typing then learn to post. And yet we've just begun. Talking bout storms that have yet to come, watching Satellite pictures along the way. Talking it over, all of us. Prediciting landfalls day by day. Together, Together!
Member Since: 26.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 411
647. txjac
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:32 (GMT)
Congratulation xcool!
Member Since: 24.04.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2357
645. Cavin Rawlins
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:31 (GMT)
Current intensity guidance keeps 90L below TS strength

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
644. xcool
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:31 (GMT)
lol
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
642. stormwatcherCI
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:30 (GMT)
Quoting ElConando:


I'll tell what I'm not at all confident with, QUIKSCAT. Its been missing everything for months.
Seesh.
LOL.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
641. MiamiHurricanes09
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:30 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
This blog is starting to remind me what it usually is like in the summertime.
Yesterday it was so mello and calm and today because we got an invest BOOM! And it's just the beginning.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
640. atmoaggie
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:30 (GMT)
Quoting ElConando:


You need to recalibrate you humor meter ;)

And we should prolly call it by it's formal name, the humorometer...
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
639. xcool
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:29 (GMT)
Sorry for no update yesterday, updates will likely be sporadic the next week or two, as my beautiful wife gave birth to our third child yesterday. Her name, Camille. No she wasn’t named after the infamous cat 5 storm that slammed the Gulf Coast in 1969, but it certainly didn’t decrease the attractiveness of the name for me.

An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the state starting today in the west and across most of the state the next several days as a cold front stalls out across the area and we may even see some moisture intrusion from a developing storm system off the coast which could eventually become a named subtropical storm. It certainly would likely not be a purely tropical system, as we see a 500mb trough drop in and baroclinically enhance this system. But it could acquire enough tropical characteristics to be a subtropical system. It looks like it will head west and possibly do a loop off the Carolina coast. This could lead to some windy and squally weather across the coast early next week and an increased chance of rain and clouds along with cooler temps inland. I will keep an eye on this over the weekend.

Hope everyone has a good weekend.

Allan Huffman
by^
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
638. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:28 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:
This blog is starting to remind me what it usually is like in the summertime.
and the best part is its just the beginning
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
636. xcool
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:27 (GMT)
move to SW.hmmm
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
635. Levi32
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:27 (GMT)
This blog is starting to remind me what it usually is like in the summertime.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26460
634. MiamiHurricanes09
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:25 (GMT)
Quoting doabarrelroll:


This is JFV its gotta be
LMAO
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
633. Hurricanes101
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:25 (GMT)
Quoting doabarrelroll:


This is JFV its gotta be


the guy/girl doesn't seem to realize that 4 or 5 people answered his/her question before I did, which is why I answered it with a simple no, because it had already been explained why
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
632. ElConando
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:24 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

(hmm, humor meter didn't go off)

You do know it is d-e-a-d, dead, right?


You need to recalibrate you humor meter ;)
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
631. doabarrelroll
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:24 (GMT)
Quoting kuppenskup:


Exactly!


This is JFV its gotta be
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 486
630. kuppenskup
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:23 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


Yes. It is common for weak systems to relocate their centers. If the old center dies and a new one forms associated with the same disturbance, they will simply re-analyze the position of 90L at the new center location.


Exactly!
Member Since: 26.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 411
629. Hurricanes101
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:22 (GMT)
shear is dropping east of the Bahamas
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
628. atmoaggie
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:22 (GMT)
Quoting ElConando:


I'll tell what I'm not at all confident with, QUIKSCAT. Its been missing everything for months.
Seesh.

(hmm, humor meter didn't go off)

You do know it is d-e-a-d, dead, right?
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
627. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:21 (GMT)
Quoting ElConando:


I'll tell what I'm not at all confident with, QUIKSCAT. Its been missing everything for months.
Seesh.
AND TILL 2015
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
626. atmoaggie
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:20 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm not too confident in the ASCAT, I'm thinking WINDSAT better.

A little birdie told me that the scatterometer on OceanSat2 (launched Sept 23) is still being calibrated...

(WTH is the holdup?)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
625. Levi32
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:19 (GMT)
Quoting Motttt:


will it still be called 90l?


Yes. It is common for weak systems to relocate their centers. If the old center dies and a new one forms associated with the same disturbance, they will simply re-analyze the position of 90L at the new center location.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26460
624. Motttt
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:18 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
The old center is enveploed in strong northeast flow, so that likely cause it to dilute...a new center is appearing further southeast which is supporting Drak and I observations.





will it still be called 90l?
Member Since: 10.09.2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
623. Hurricanes101
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:17 (GMT)
Model consensus continues to show that 90L whatever it may become will not come far south enough to affect Central Florida before it turns back east

Just doesn't seem very likely
Member Since: 10.03.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
622. xcool
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:17 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
621. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
21. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:16 (GMT)


XX/XX/XE
MARK
8.5N/95.8W
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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