El Niño is done; Haiti at risk of heavy rains next week; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 19. toukokuuta 2010 klo 20:09 (GMT)

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El Niño rapidly weakened during late April and early May, with sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling a significant 0.65°C in just one month. Temperatures in the region are now in the "neutral" range, just 0.18°C above average, and well below the 0.5°C threshold to be considered an El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer. This is what happened during the last strong El Niño event, in 1998--El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. Six of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season, and I expect more models will jump on the La Niña bandwagon when the May data updates later this week. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a significantly above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the full 160-year period we have records of Atlantic hurricanes, La Niña years have typically had more hurricanes, and more strong hurricanes, compared to neutral years. However, since 1995, there hasn't been any difference between neutral and La Niña years in terms of hurricane activity. La Niña conditions typically cause cool and wet conditions over the Caribbean in summer, but do not have much of an impact on U.S. temperatures or precipitation.


Figure 1. Oil spill edge over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, May 19, as seen from NASA's M ODIS instrument. Note that a band of cumulus clouds formed along the edge of the oil spill. I theorize this is because the low level wind flow out of the southeast moves faster over the oil, since the oil suppresses wave action. As the winds cross the spill boundary into rougher, clean water, they slow down, forcing the air to pile up and create updrafts that then spawn cumulus clouds. See my post on what oil might do to a hurricane for more information on how oil reduces wave action.

Oil spill update
Clouds over the Gulf of Mexico have again foiled satellite imaging of the extent of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, though through breaks in the clouds it appears that a significant amount of the oil that was pulled southwards towards the Loop Current is now caught in a counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to the north of the Loop Current. However, some oil has escaped this eddy and is on its way south towards the Florida Keys. According to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA, the tongue of oil flowing southwards has at most "light" concentrations. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the oil may do to the fragile Keys ecosystem. See my post yesterday for answers to many of the common questions I get about the spill.

Oil spill resources
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU


Figure 2. Precipitation forecast from today's 8am EDT run of the NAVY NOGAPS model, valid 7 days from now. Precipitation amounts in excess of 70 mm (2.8") in 12 hours are predicted over Haiti, due to a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

Potential serious rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the GFS and NOGAPS models over the past few days have consistently been predicting an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 5 - 7 days from now, and I expect that a tropical disturbance with heavy rains will develop in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the NOGAPS model shows heavy rains in excess of six inches impacting Haiti Wednesday through Thursday of next week. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing a serious emergency with high loss of life in earthquake-shattered Haiti, and all interests in that nation should closely monitor the situation over the coming week. It is too early to speculate on the possibility of the disturbance becoming a tropical depression. The wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456, who are now featured bloggers for the coming hurricane season, have more information on this potential development, plus the possible development of a subtropical storm between Florida and Bermuda next week.

Major severe weather outbreak over Oklahoma expected tonight
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put much of Oklahoma in its High Risk region for severe weather today, warning that "The setup appears most favorable for large, relatively slow moving intense storms with large hail. A couple strong tornadoes also may occur."

I'll be back with a new post Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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861. ElConando
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 18:25 (GMT)


Quoting Floodman:


Agreed...now is the time to get this mess stopped and at least starting on a viable clean up (what has happened so far by way of clean up has been a hippo ballet).

When all is said and done, though, the majority of the cost for this needs to come from the companies involved; despite appearances, the government agencies involved had to operate under the idea that the oil companies were working in good faith, an idea that has proven to be untrue


Now is not how corporations and government work. Please remember that.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
860. NCRusty
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 17:10 (GMT)
From latest Raleigh, NC Forecast Discussion:

... EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY... AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MONDAY WILL THEN BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE APPROACH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC GYRE AND INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
ONWARD. HOWEVER... IF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GYRE EVOLVES INTO MORE OF
A WARM CORE SYSTEM... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GRADUALLY
CONSTRICT TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND LEAVE A DRIER SUBSIDENT
REGION ON IT/S NORTHWEST PERIPHERY (OVER A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS)
LATER IN THE PERIOD (TUE-WED).
859. Floodman
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 16:42 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
Regarding dispersants, dead sea turtles were turning up on the beaches right away, with no signs of oil. That should have been a red flag right away. Last I heard there were 174 dead sea turtles found. I believe that is an endangered species isn't it? The EPA gave the green light on permitting in the first place; so like it or not, the government is responsible as well for both this mess and the clean up. What is especially hard to believe is given the environment, proximity to shore, there were not more safeguards in place and very little planning for the worst-case scenario which is where we are now.

It's never good when government agencies are not working for the public benefit and interest.
We have lost our way.
Our Islands in the Stream are Islands in Distress.


Agreed...now is the time to get this mess stopped and at least starting on a viable clean up (what has happened so far by way of clean up has been a hippo ballet).

When all is said and done, though, the majority of the cost for this needs to come from the companies involved; despite appearances, the government agencies involved had to operate under the idea that the oil companies were working in good faith, an idea that has proven to be untrue
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
858. Floodman
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 16:35 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

Obviously, no lessons were learned from the Katrina debacle.
I wonder if anything will be learned from this?
Is there a Disaster Response agency of some kind in the US?
I don't mean the ability to send troops in. I mean an Authority that has a mandate to react to ALL and ANY disasters, with people involved who are Independent of other agencies?
Crap happens, all the time. And when it does it matters not who did what.
Quick, meaningful reaction is all that matters.


There used to be; FEMA was, at one time, a free standing Federal Agency...in 2003 it was put under the auspices of Homeland Security and by all accounts, their performance has been abysmal ever since
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
857. mikatnight
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 16:19 (GMT)
I find it hard to believe that anyone in the government doesn't want this catastrophe to be repaired. That they (as in everyone) were betting on never having to deal with a disaster of this type is another story. It seems to me that whatever assets are needed to deal with this are still being realized.
The EPA has given BP 24 hrs to come up with a less toxic dispersant. People are trying. Just because they make mistakes, doesn't mean they're evil.

Statements such as, "It's never good when government agencies are not working for the public benefit and interest" is true, but suggests that which is untrue. Or highly debatable at the very least. Citizens of this country who comprise the members of our government - despite occasional policies that might suggest otherwise - are not out to destroy the USA. Even the Bush/Cheney administrations (whom I loathed) weren't out to hurt the country, despite some policies and decisions that achieved exactly that.
And saying, "We have lost our way" is just plain discouraging and is not helpful.
Help with the solution Chicklet.
Everybody.
Help.
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
856. Chicklit
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 16:03 (GMT)
With all due respect, focus needs to be steadfast on prevention and cure at this point. We all know what got us here.
What's done is done. Dead is dead.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
855. MahFL
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:45 (GMT)
Blame the Oil Lobbyists and the American political system.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
854. Chicklit
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:41 (GMT)
Regarding dispersants, dead sea turtles were turning up on the beaches right away, with no signs of oil. That should have been a red flag right away. Last I heard there were 174 dead sea turtles found. I believe that is an endangered species isn't it? The EPA gave the green light on permitting in the first place; so like it or not, the government is responsible as well for both this mess and the clean up. What is especially hard to believe is given the environment, proximity to shore, there were not more safeguards in place and very little planning for the worst-case scenario which is where we are now.

It's never good when government agencies are not working for the public benefit and interest.
We have lost our way.
Our Islands in the Stream are Islands in Distress.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
853. mikatnight
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:39 (GMT)
Quoting MahFL:


And fall/early winter....lol.
And no I don't want people to lose their houses, but nature will do what it wants, and it can be terrifingly exciting.


I do believe you've just created the catch-phrase for the Blog. At least during an active part of a season:

Terrifyingly Exciting
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
852. MahFL
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:32 (GMT)
Quoting NCRusty:
Hi all, I've been a lurker here for a couple of years and figured it was probably time to actually register.

Look forward to an exciting summer!


And fall/early winter....lol.
And no I don't want people to lose their houses, but nature will do what it wants, and it can be terrifingly exciting.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2905
851. mikatnight
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:30 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
Anyway, I suppose the Fed policy has been, "It's your mess, clean it up." Unfortunately, that strategy isn't working.


Hi Chicklet,
What should be being done that's not being done, and what's needed that isn't being supplied? TIA
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
850. Unfriendly
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:29 (GMT)
Quoting JamesSA:





So haven't seen the loop current recently- I knew about the eddy to the NE of the loop currrent, but not the one further south.

Question - It appears that the 2nd, newer eddy may be doing two things:
A) returning some (50% ?)of the flow of the loop current back towards the southwest, and;
B) Increasing the speed at which the current flows towards the southwest, due to two "gears" flowing in opposite directions, thus compressing the current and speeding it up.

My questions are:

Because some of the warm water is being re-routed back into the loop, is it possible that this will increase the overall temperature of the loop current itself? If the base temperature of the surrounding water is warmer, does this not mean that the temperature of the loop current will be higher as well?

Also - Because there appears to be a very quick current from approx 26N moving southwesterly, and at near purpendicular(sp*) to the northward flowing side, is there any possibility that the entire northern half of the loop current can be "sliced" off? In other words, if the 2nd eddy has enough water moving at 90 degrees (angle, not temp) to the other current, can that current force the loop current to take a track that goes from west to east, and (temporarily) skips the "loop"? If so, what would happen to the massive loop that was sliced off? Would it be the equivalent of a super-sized eddy?

I'd like to see what you guys think on this - I intentionally left out the oil spill, as that is a whole new ballgame if any of what I said is possible. Feel free to post on that if ya like.

Dr. M, StormW, 456, Levi - thanks in advance for your responses if you get the chance.

Member Since: 21.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
849. Floodman
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:28 (GMT)
Quoting SouthDadeFish:


In 24 hours it has the low at 1013 mb, then at 48 hours 1011 mb, and at 72 hours 1009 mb with a possible gale.


And so it begins
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
848. Chicklit
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:24 (GMT)
Anyway, I suppose the Fed policy has been, "It's your mess, clean it up." Unfortunately, that strategy isn't working.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
847. NCRusty
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Hi all, I've been a lurker here for a couple of years and figured it was probably time to actually register.

Look forward to an exciting summer!
846. mikatnight
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:19 (GMT)
1 Month Later, Numbers Just Get Worse for Gulf

Scope of Oil Spill Crisis Grows as Efforts to Contain it Become More Desperate

(CBS/AP) One month after an explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caused a massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, officials from both the government and oil company British Petroleum continue to struggle to manage the crisis.

Heavy, sticky oil was starting to clog Louisiana marshes on the Gulf of Mexico as another edge of the partly submerged crude reached a powerful current that could take it to Florida and beyond.

BP is successfully siphoning off at least a portion of the oil spewing into the Gulf after hooking up a mile-long tube that connects the blown-out well to a tanker. Officials also are preparing an attempt to "kill" the well shooting a mixture known as drilling mud into it. Those efforts are expected to take place this weekend.

But one of the persistent storylines is the huge discrepancy between BP's estimate of the amount of oil flowing into the Gulf and those of independent scientists. Since the April 20 explosion, BP officials placed the flow rate at 5,000 barrels a day, or 210,000 gallons - a figure accepted by the government and widely reported as accurate. Those estimates put the total amount of oil spilt into the Gulf at around 6 million gallons.

However, after BP succumbed to pressure to release video footage of the blown-out well, those numbers have fallen under intense scrutiny. Steve Wereley, a mechanical engineer at Purdue University in Indiana, told The Associated Press that he is sticking with his estimate that 3.9 million gallons a day is spewing from two leaks.

"I don't see any scenario where (BP's) numbers would be accurate," he said at a congressional hearing Wednesday.

His estimate of the amount leaked to date, which he calls conservative and says has a margin of error of plus or minus 20 percent, is 126 million gallons - or more than 11 times the total leaked from the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989.
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
845. weathermanwannabe
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:13 (GMT)
The current CIMMS sheer tendency chart is forcasting a drop over the Bahamas over the next 24 hours.....Issue is whether there will be enough energy there for something to actually form.......Can't beleive we are having this discussion in late-May when the normal time-period for this region, climatologically, is not until July.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8262
844. Chicklit
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:12 (GMT)
Hi Potts. These are what is called in the public administration lingo "wicked problems." Unfortunately, under these circumstances, our agencies appear inept and uncoordinated. This is a problem most obviously brought to light during Katrina. Since that time, the academians are pushing efforts for public bureacratic boundaries to become more porous and flexible and mid-managers be more empowered so that appropriate action can be quickly applied from a variety of sources all best equipped to handle an emerging crisis situation.
The "top down" approach is the worst management to use in public administration because it takes so long for information to flow in either direction.
It appears the "flat" theories of management and organizing numerous crisis teams of a triage nature trained to handle wicked problems are still mainly studied in the classroom. Not long ago, we had a local environmental professional, think it was an inspector of sorts, jumping up and down on the blog over the spill, tearing hair out over why this was not being treated as an emergency. These are the sorts of people who need to be in charge of these kinds of matters and have all of the resources they need at their disposal. The professionals who are closest to the problem understand it the best. Not the BP executives who have been given free reign to control the situation.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
843. pottery
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:10 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It appears when EPA gave the original approval they required monitoring, which is showing lower levels of oxygen at certain depths, which may be the reason they are requiring the switch.

OK. But I imagine that ANY dispersant is going to change the chemistry of the water. Because, the oil is still there, for one thing. It only "disperses". ie, the plan is to have the particles release one from the other.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
842. pottery
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:07 (GMT)

Obviously, no lessons were learned from the Katrina debacle.
I wonder if anything will be learned from this?
Is there a Disaster Response agency of some kind in the US?
I dont mean the ability to send troops in. I mean an Authority that has a mandate to react to ALL and ANY disasters, with people involved who are Independent of other agencies?
Crap happens, all the time. And when it does it matters not who did what.
Quick, meaningfull reaction is all that matters.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
841. nrtiwlnvragn
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:07 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10458
840. nrtiwlnvragn
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......


It appears when EPA gave the original approval they required monitoring, which is showing lower levels of oxygen at certain depths, which may be the reason they are requiring the switch.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10458
838. sarahjola
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, from the 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:

EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W WITH CONVECTION.


where will it go?
Member Since: 10.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
837. hydrus
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......
If the do not close off that well, imagine how much more money it will cost our country as we try to contain this spill. And money is tight right now.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19497
836. Stormchaser2007
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
835. Bonedog
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:00 (GMT)
awsome shot of "E"

Member Since: 14.07.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
834. Chicklit
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......


...especially because it is obvious that neither the left nor right hand know what the other is doing.... or more likely, the EPA is so used to rubberstamping whatever the oil industry wants, there is no process of discernment in place.
Dismal fo sho.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
833. SomeRandomTexan
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:

But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......


I agree!

All of these administrators are acting like fools.

Yes you can one day, No you can't the next. Makes no sense at all!
Member Since: 30.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
832. SouthDadeFish
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:57 (GMT)


In 24 hours it has the low at 1013 mb, then at 48 hours 1011 mb, and at 72 hours 1009 mb with a possible gale.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
831. pottery
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
EPA informs BP to use less toxic chemicals to break up oil spill

Excerpt:

The Environmental Protection Agency informed BP officials late Wednesday that the company has 24 hours to choose a less toxic form of chemical dispersants to break up its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to government sources familiar with the decision, and must apply the new form of dispersants within 72 hours of submitting the list of alternatives.


But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
830. Cavin Rawlins
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


From the article:

BP has been using two forms of dispersants, Corexit 9500A and Corexit 9527A, and so far has applied 600,000 gallons on the surface and 55,000 underwater.

On Monday, Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) sent a letter to EPA administrator Lisa P. Jackson questioning the approach, given that Britain banned more than a decade ago some formulations of the dispersant, Corexit, that is now being used


As someone who studied environmental sciences and is a big fan of the environment I am more than upset with this oil, but have kept the anger to myself.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
829. hydrus
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:55 (GMT)
Quoting NttyGrtty:
816. Patrick, in your best educated guess, does this "top kill method" have shot at working?
I hope so. What happens if they can,t stop it? I cannot imagine the hellish scenario.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19497
828. Chicklit
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Good morning, from the 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:

EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W WITH CONVECTION.

In an article published online this morning someone spoke about the BP situation same as if the perpetrators of a crime were being permitted to control access to the crime scene.

Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
827. Patrap
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:53 (GMT)
This aint happened yet...


Markey to Get Live Feed of BP Oil Spill on Website

BP Acquiesces to Markey’s Request, Will Release Video Stream Tonight to Chairman

May 19, 2010 – Following a demand from Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) for a live feed of the BP oil spill to be made publicly available on the web, BP said they would release the feed and it will be shown on Rep. Markey’s committee website at www.globalwarming.house.gov. The release of the live link to Rep. Markey is expected tonight.

“This may be BP’s footage, but it’s America’s ocean. Now anyone will be able to see the real-time effects the BP spill is having on our ocean,” said Rep. Markey, who conducted a briefing today with independent scientists where he reiterated the call for a video feed. “This footage will aid analysis by independent scientists blocked by BP from coming to see the spill.”

Markey sent letters earlier today to BP America’s CEO Lamar McKay asking for the footage to be made public on BP’s website. If BP could not host the footage, Rep. Markey offered to host it on his website free of charge.

“BP is going to have to pay for the cleanup of this spill and the long-term damage. Hosting this video on our website is the only freebie they’re going to get,” Rep. Markey said.

The letter sent to McKay today can be found here.

Rep. Markey has frequently queried BP for more information on the exact size of the spill and on their refusal to engage with outside scientists. Independent scientists have examined video, satellite photos and other aspects of the spill and determined that it may be much bigger than estimated. Today at a briefing Rep. Markey held in his Energy and Environment Subcommittee, independent scientists from Purdue University and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said that the estimate of a 5,000 barrel per day leak was an underestimation of the flow. The scientists said with more data, they could better calculate the flow of oil from the sea floor.

"This is 4th grade math. We know the numerator here—the couple thousand barrels a day BP is siphoning out of the sunken pipe. But we still don’t know the denominator," said Rep. Markey. "BP is capturing a fraction of the oil, but they don’t know what that fraction is. By releasing this video, we’ve taken the first step towards allowing better access to the information BP has about this spill."
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125448
826. IKE
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


From the article:

BP has been using two forms of dispersants, Corexit 9500A and Corexit 9527A, and so far has applied 600,000 gallons on the surface and 55,000 underwater.

On Monday, Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) sent a letter to EPA administrator Lisa P. Jackson questioning the approach, given that Britain banned more than a decade ago some formulations of the dispersant, Corexit, that is now being used


What a mess this all is^^^


.............

12Z NAM @ 84 hours...moisture headed for the mid-Atlantic coast..

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
825. Stormchaser2007
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:49 (GMT)
WW3 has the storm as well.

Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
824. nrtiwlnvragn
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


What chemicals were they using at first?


From the article:

BP has been using two forms of dispersants, Corexit 9500A and Corexit 9527A, and so far has applied 600,000 gallons on the surface and 55,000 underwater.

On Monday, Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) sent a letter to EPA administrator Lisa P. Jackson questioning the approach, given that Britain banned more than a decade ago some formulations of the dispersant, Corexit, that is now being used
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10458
823. NttyGrtty
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:47 (GMT)
816. Patrick, in your best educated guess, does this "top kill method" have shot at working?
Member Since: 11.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 786
822. Cavin Rawlins
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:46 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
EPA informs BP to use less toxic chemicals to break up oil spill

Excerpt:

The Environmental Protection Agency informed BP officials late Wednesday that the company has 24 hours to choose a less toxic form of chemical dispersants to break up its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to government sources familiar with the decision, and must apply the new form of dispersants within 72hours of submitting the list of alternatives.



What chemicals were they using at first?
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
821. Stormchaser2007
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
May 2005: We did not know what record SSTs could do.

Summer 2005: We found out

May 2010: We now know what record SSTs can do.

Summer 2010: We will find out.


I like that.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
820. nrtiwlnvragn
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:42 (GMT)
EPA informs BP to use less toxic chemicals to break up oil spill

Excerpt:

The Environmental Protection Agency informed BP officials late Wednesday that the company has 24 hours to choose a less toxic form of chemical dispersants to break up its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to government sources familiar with the decision, and must apply the new form of dispersants within 72 hours of submitting the list of alternatives.

Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10458
819. Patrap
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Oil in Pass a Loutre


Oil in Pass a Loutre
Added by Ted Jackson, The Times-Picayune on May 19, 2010 at 5:21 PM

PHOTO BY TED JACKSON / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE An oily mess inundates the Roseau Grasses that mark the coastline of Southeast Louisiana at Pass a Loutre at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser and La. Gov. Bobby Jindal tour Pass a Loutre where oil has washed ashore, especially on the western side of South Pass, Wednesday, May 19, 2010.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125448
818. CaneWarning
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:37 (GMT)
I can't believe some people out there are still advocating for the expansion of drilling in the gulf. It just amazes me that there is such a lack of caring about the environment. I guess the entire gulf has to be full of oil and dead sea life before some people care.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
817. JamesSA
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
DATE: May 19, 2010 19:42:39 CST
BP:Simultaneous Operations Overview Graphic - May 19, 2010


The Marsh is the nursery for 70% of all Marine Life in the GOM..











BP's Chernobyl. :-(
Member Since: 17.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
816. Patrap
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Oil arrives on shore; 'top kill' method to stop leak planned for Sunday

by Michael Kunzelman and Greg Bluestein / Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on May 20, 2010 at 7:16 AM

Updated today at 8:49 AM
Gallery



NEW ORLEANS -- Heavy, sticky oil from a massive monthlong spill was starting to clog Louisiana marshes on the Gulf of Mexico as another edge of the partly submerged crude reached a powerful current that could take it to Florida and beyond.

Brown ooze that coated marsh grasses and hung in the shallow water of a wetland at Louisiana's southeastern tip was the first heavy oil seen on shore since a BP seafloor well blew out following an April 20 rig explosion. Gov. Bobby Jindal declared Wednesday it was just the outer edge of the real spill, much heavier than the
oily sheen seen before.

"This is the heavy oil that everyone's been fearing that is here now," Jindal said during a boat tour. The wetlands at the mouth of the Mississippi are home to rare birds, mammals and a wide variety of marine life.

BP PLC was marshaling equipment and conducting tests Thursday ahead of a new effort to choke off the oil's flow. Crews hoped that by Sunday they can start the "top kill," which involves pumping heavy mud into the crippled equipment on top of the well, then permanently sealing it with cement.

The procedure has been used before to halt gushing oil above ground, but like other methods BP is exploring it has never been used 5,000 feet below the sea. That's why scientists and engineers have spent much of the last week preparing for the complex operation and taking a series of measurements to make sure that the
mission doesn't backfire.

"The philosophy from the beginning is not to take any action which could make the situation worse, and those are the final steps we're doing," said Doug Suttles, BP's chief operating officer.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Wednesday that a small portion of the slick had entered the so-called loop current, a stream of faster moving water that circulates around the Gulf before bending around Florida and up the Atlantic coast. Its arrival may portend a wider environmental catastrophe affecting the Florida Keys and tourist-dotted beaches along that state's east coast.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125448
815. Patrap
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:34 (GMT)
DATE: May 19, 2010 19:42:39 CST
BP:Simultaneous Operations Overview Graphic - May 19, 2010


The Marsh is the nursery for 70% of all Marine Life in the GOM..









Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125448
814. Cavin Rawlins
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:31 (GMT)
May 2005: We did not know what record SSTs could do.

Summer 2005: We found out

May 2010: We now know what record SSTs can do.

Summer 2010: We will find out.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
813. JamesSA
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

The months part isn't; that is how long it takes those eddies to move across the Gulf. Prolly will be there through September to help out any TC that passes over it (yay).

Oil is biodegradable, breaking down the entire time it is in the ocean. Sure, it is an assumption that there will be nothing left to effect the TX coast, but some reasoning behind it.

No, I meant the big assumption is that they will get the leak stopped soon.

I watched the oil from the Ixtoc blowout slowly biodegrade over a period of a couple of decades. The lighter components of the oil do indeed dissipate or evaporate fairly rapidly. What was left was black gooey tarballs and larger slabs that floated around in the gulf for 10 to 20 years. The gradually became harder and more dried out, until finally barnacles and such would attach to them. It takes a very long time for the tar like stuff to truly go away.

The kind of 'dissipation' they are talking about now is really just 'dilution'.
Member Since: 17.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
812. CaicosRetiredSailor
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Plenty of rain all morning here in Turks & Caicos, lightning increasing... just struck about 1/2 mile away...

time to unplug...

cul

CRS
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
811. weathersp
20. toukokuuta 2010 klo 14:24 (GMT)
7 AM Tomorrow: 12z NAM

Member Since: 14.01.2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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