Clouds, unstable Loop Current making oil spill prediction difficult
It's cloudy over the Gulf of Mexico today, so it is difficult to tell how far into the Loop Current the Deepwater Horizon oil has penetrated using visible satellite imagery. Satellite imagery yesterday from NASA's MODIS instrument confirmed that a tongue of oil moved southeast from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and entered the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current. However, Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery from the European Envisat satellite posted at ROFFS Ocean Forecasting Service shows that while some of the tongue of oil that entered the Loop Current appears to be circulating southwards towards the Florida Keys, perhaps 80% of the oil in this tongue is caught in a counter-clockwise circulating eddy along the north side of the Loop Current. This oil may eventually circulate around and enter the Loop Current, but not for at least three days.
Figure 1. Oil spill forecast for this Thursday night as simulated by the 6pm EDT Monday May 17 runs of the Navy Gulf of Mexico HYCOM nowcast/forecast system and the Global HYCOM + NCODA Analysis from the HYCOM Consortium. See the University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group website for more information. There are considerable differences between the two models, due in part to the fact that they have much different depictions of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean currents at the beginning of their runs. The warm Loop Current is visible as the red colors of the SST field that form a heart-shaped area in the Gulf.
How long will it be until oil reaches the Keys?
Once oil gets into the Loop Current, the 1 - 2 mph speed of the current should allow the oil to travel the 500 miles to the Florida Keys in 5 - 10 days. Portions of the Loop Current flow at speed up to 4 mph, so the fastest transport could be 4 - 5 days.
How much oil has made it into the Loop Current?
According to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA, the tongue of oil flowing southwards has, at most, "light" concentrations. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys, and most of the oil appears to be caught in a smaller counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the north side of the Loop Current. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding how much oil will get to the Keys, and we cannot rule out the possibility of an ecological disaster in the fragile Keys ecosystem.
How is the Loop Current changing?
The Loop Current has been highly chaotic and unstable over the past week, making it difficult to predict how the ocean currents near the spill will behave. According to ROFFS Ocean Fishing Service, which has done a tremendous job tracking the spill, the Loop Current surged 7 - 10 miles northward Sunday and Monday. The Loop Current has gotten more contorted since Friday, and may be ready to cut off into a clockwise-rotating Loop Current Eddy. This process occurs every 6 - 11 months, with the clockwise-rotating ring of water slowly drifting west-southwest towards Texas. The last eddy broke off ten months ago, so the Loop Current is due to shed another eddy in the next few months. The latest 1-month forecast from the U.S. Navy does not predict an eddy forming, but these forecasts are not very reliable. If a Loop Current Eddy does break off, oil getting entrained into it might orbit the center of the Gulf of Mexico for many months inside the eddy. However, this eddy will probably reattach and detach from the main Loop Current flow for at least a month following when it breaks off, so oil will continue to flow through the Keys during this initial month.
When will the flow of oil into the Loop Current shut off?
Winds over the oil spill location are expected to be light and onshore at 5 - 10 knots through Saturday. This means that the chaotic contortions of the Loop Current will primarily control how much oil gets into it, making it difficult to predict when the flow will shut off. The long range (and thus unreliable) forecast for next week from the GFS model calls for a continuation of light winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the flow of oil into the Loop Current could occur intermittently for several weeks.
Who besides the Keys are at risk next week from the Loop Current oil?
As I discussed in an earlier post, the coast of Southwest Florida from Tampa Bay to the Everglades is a "Forbidden Zone" for surface-based transport of ocean water to the coast, and is probably not at risk from this week's Loop Current oil. The northwest coast of Cuba east of Havana and the coast of Southeast Florida from the Keys to West Palm Beach are at the most risk. The western shores of the western-most Bahama Islands and the U.S. coast north of West Palm Beach northwards to Cape Hatteras are at slight risk. It would likely take ocean eddies 2 - 9 weeks to transport the oil to these locations, and the oil would probably be so dilute that ecosystem damage would probably be minor, at most. At this point, I see no reason for cancellation of vacation plans to any of the beach areas that may potentially be affected by the oil.
What is happening to the plumes of oil at depth?
Two research missions over the past week have detected substantial plumes of oil at depth, moving to the southwest. The deepest of the these plumes, near the site of the blowout at 5,000 feet depth, is in a region of slow ocean currents and has not moved much. At depths closer to the surface, the currents get stronger, and oil within a few hundred feet of the surface--if there is any--could potentially have been dragged into the Loop Current. At this point, we don't have a very good picture of how much oil is at depth and where it might be headed.
Oil spill resources
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU
The tropics
For those of you interested in a detailed look at the early season tropical weather outlook, consult the excellent wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456, who are now featured bloggers for the coming hurricane season. We have some models predicting a possible subtropical storm off the U.S. East coast next week, but this does not appear to be a significant concern for land areas at this time. More concerning is the possibility that an area of disturbed weather will develop across the Western Caribbean late next week. While wind shear will likely keep anything in the Western Caribbean from developing, several models are predicting that this disturbance may bring major flooding rains to earthquake-ravaged Haiti late next week.
I'll be back with a new post Wednesday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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WOW!! I had not seen that before. The shot of the leak above the BOP is flowing much more than the other leak that the tube was inserted into. It shows much faster flow as well (more pressure).
Amazing! Scary! Bad Crap there....
No? The models have been latching onto possible subtropical development with this area for several days now, and have not changed since.
I realize that the primary area of concern is the possible Bahamian low in about a week or so, but there is also a chance we could get something out of the Hatteras low, as well.
Seems so! I should have been a Lawyer.
They did a good job back on May 1, better than here as we saw squat
Not gonna happen, even in 2010.
You know, we have to have a talk about our Cultural differences.
Husbands here (even non-ones), have no problem cooking occasionally.
But I fear that this relationship is doomed to failure. Conditions apply. And competence in the galley, well......you know....
heheheh
For sure! Pictures dont lie. This is bad stuff. I feel for you all.
I think the 2 more named storms the rest of the season would lead to more committing suicide lol
Joint Public Affairs Support Element More Videos from Joint Public Affairs Support Element RSS
Video by Lt. Scott Sagisi
1
Date Taken: 05.17.2010
Posted: 05.18.2010 16:38
VIRIN: 100517-N-7540C-001
Video Location: LA, US
Over flight of the Deep Water Horizon Oil Spill Source, footage of skimming oil on the surface of the water, booming and drilling operations. The U.S. Coast Guard working in partnership with BP PLC, local residents and other federal agencies to prevent the spread of oil following the April 20 explosion on Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit Deep Water Horizon. (Official Navy Video by Mass Communication Specialist First Class David G. Crawford/ Released) Oilspill10
30 years ago already???
Man. I'm getting younger...er, I mean, well, geeze! 30 years?
1008 lowCARIBBEAN
The comparisons to 2005 are very valid ones.
Cold-core:
I have not been seeing any threat for subtropical development of this. It's taking off right up the east coast. Completely baroclinic.
How about the 25 year anniversary of Hurricane Gloria this season as well
and in 2012 it will be 20 years since Hurricane Andrew
That is so hard to comprehend how time goes so fast
it is everything that happens in the next 4-5 days that will help spark these 2 systems
Like I said earlier, this is an intriguing start to the 2010 season, even if we dont get a storm. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out
The Emergency Management people here have advised that continuing heavy rains on the mountains could result in mudslides, flooding and life-threatening conditions. More rain has fallen in the mountains than here for sure, over the past few days.
6" in some areas confirmed, likely more in other areas.
Wow, you're exactly right...
Yeah. I suspected the other day that we might see Alex out of this, and even StormW was mentioning at least the possibility of such (though he didn't feel that it was very high, either) the other day.
Looking at it now though, it is indeed solidly baroclinic, completely attached to the trough. I doubt we'll see any development from this area now, but we definitely had a chance.
The comparisons to 2005 will never end at the current rate of conditions.
Current Convective Watches
Updated: Tue May 18 22:00:14 UTC 2010
What's your take on the Central Atl now? That large area of heavy weather in the ITCZ. Something to watch?
If the disturbance is small enough. To me significant development would be possible if the upper ridge can expand at least up to Jamaica, which means getting the 30-knot wind shear isotach up to Jamaica's latitude.
Boom, boom, boom, (oil) boom.
I read StormW's blog on this earlier today..any changes?
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