An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S., warmest on record in Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 15:26 (GMT)

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The U.S. just experienced its coldest winter in 25 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The winter period December - February was the 18th coldest winter in the contiguous U.S. over the past 115 years, and the coldest since 1984 - 1985. It was also a wet winter, ranking 19th wettest. The states experiencing the coldest winters, relative to average, were Texas and Louisiana, which had their 5th coldest winters on record. Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina also had a top-ten coldest winter. The only state much above average was Maine, which had its 3rd warmest winter. As I discussed earlier this week, this winter's cold weather over the U.S. is largely due to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, which assumed its most extreme negative configuration since record keeping began in 1950. El Niño helped keep things cool from Texas to the Southeastern U.S., as well.


Figure 1. Winter temperatures for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold February in the U.S.
February temperatures were 2.2°F below average across the contiguous U.S., making it the 29th coldest February in the 115-year record. For the second month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. Florida had its 4th coldest February on record. Seven other states had February temperatures between 5th and 8th coldest on record: Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Maine had its 3rd warmest February, New Hampshire its 5th, and Washington its 6th. Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in February.

Warmest and driest winter on record in Canada
Canada had its warmest winter on record, 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average, according to Environment Canada. The previous record was 3.9°C above average, set in 2005-2006. Canada also experienced its driest winter on record this year, with precipitation 22.0% below normal. The previous driest winter was 1977-1978 (20.1% below normal). Canadian weather records go back 63 years, to 1948. David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, warned of potential "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations, and wildfires this summer due to the warm, dry winter. Phillips blamed the warm winter weather on El Niño and the severe loss of arctic sea ice last fall. The winter season in Canada has warmed, on average, by 2.5°C (4.5°F) over the past 63 years.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average in Canada for the winter of 2009 - 2010. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Brazilian tropical/subtropical storm named "Anita"
The South Atlantic tropical/subtropical storm we've been tracking this week has moved over colder waters and has now transitioned to a regular extratropical storm. Earlier this week, the storm became just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic. According to a statement put out by MetSul Meteorologia, a Brazilian weather company, this storm is now named "Tropical Storm Anita:"

The regional weather centers and the private weather enterprises of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, southernmost Brazilian states, in a joint decision, named Anita the rare tropical storm of March 9th and 10th in the coastal areas of the region. The name was chosen considering a historic figure of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, both states affected by the tropical cyclone. Anita Garibaldi (1821-1849) was a heroine of the Farroupilha Revolution (1835-1845), one of the most important events in the Brazilian history that took place in the Southern part of the country. Anita was used in the past to designate tropical cyclones in other basins: North Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Next week, we need to keep an eye on northeastern Australia, where Tropical Cyclone 20 may pay a visit. The storm is under light shear and warm waters, and is forecast to increase to Category 4 strength by Monday. Also of concern is Tropical Cyclone 19, which is expected to hit Fiji as a Category 2 storm early next week.

First tornado death of the year for the U.S
A tornado that hit Cleburne, Arkansas on Wednesday caused three serious injuries and the tornado season's first fatality, a 79-year old man sheltering in his single story wood-frame home. Yesterday, a suspected tornado ripped through Haines City, Florida destroying four condos and damaging fifteen others. One person was injured. Two other tornadoes caused minor damage in central Florida. The severe weather outbreak continues today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather over portions of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. After today, the severe weather action should diminish for at least five days over the U.S. The major U.S. weather story this weekend will be flooding in the Mid-Atlantic, where heavy rains of up to four inches are expected. Soils are already saturated and the heavy snows from this winter's major snowstorms will also melt, likely creating moderate flooding problems over much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Links to follow:
Interactive tornado map
Severe weather page


Figure 3. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Tornado, Saline County, AR (waltdsgirl)
Tornado, Saline County, AR
deluge of rain... (happytobealive)
We drove west on I-10 today and this is what we encountered near Live Oak, Florida. We pulled to the side of the road for a time because the rain was more than the wipers could clear for safe driving.
deluge of rain...
wind damage (Openmike)
Wind tore the awning from a business on U.S. 19 between Crystal River and Homassaa Springs, Fl., Thursday afternoon. Severe stroms hammered the area, causing wind damage and flooding. A tornado was reported, by a trained spotter, about ten miles South of this location. Check the series for more storm and flood pictures.
wind damage

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788. AussieStorm
16. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 02:41 (GMT)
Evacuations, state of disaster declared after Cyclone Tomas slams into Fiji

* From correspondents in Suva
* From: AFP
* March 16, 2010 12:56PM




FIJI has declared a state of disaster in the cyclone-hit north and east as damage reports from the storm have risen sharply.

"The national disaster council has declared a state of disaster in the northern division and eastern division," National Disaster Management Office operations officer Anthony Blake said.

The powerful cyclone left a trail of damage through Fiji as winds averaging 175km an hour smashed into the Pacific island group today, forcing the evacuation of 10,000 people.

The main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu had been spared the worst of Cyclone Tomas's devastation since it slammed into the country yesterday but there were reports of extensive damage from some of the outlying islands.

There were no new reports of casualties after a woman drowned in rough seas at the weekend as the cyclone approached.

More than 10,000 people have fled to evacuation centres - mostly in the north of the country - as the storm damaged buildings and crops and brought down communications and power, while many low-lying areas were flooded.

By this morning, Tomas was over the Northern Lau group, to the east of the main islands, Fiji Meteorological Services director Rajendra Prasad said.

He said the average wind speed had increased slightly overnight to 175km an hour overnight but had peaked in intensity.

"The cyclone is expected to maintain its peak intensity for 12 hours or so before commencing a gradual weakening trend," Mr Prasad said.

Fiji Tropical Cyclone Centre senior forecaster Matt Boterhoven said there had been further reports of damage today.

"We had a report this morning from Lakeba, one of the larger islands in the Lau group, that two villages were flooded and some people had to be moved to higher ground," he told Radio New Zealand.

A sea wall also collapsed on another island in the group, he said.

"A lot of sea flooding is occurring and it's causing a significant impact in the northern and eastern parts of the Fiji group this morning," he said.

The impact of Cyclone Tomas is expected to lessen this evening as it moves south of Fiji.

Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
787. AllyBama
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 23:17 (GMT)
Good afternoon everyone..

Just returned from a 7 day cruise from Mexico and western Caribbean and hate that I didn't have access to the WU on Friday night/Saturday!...we rocked and rolled from Cozumel back to New Orleans..sure glad that I had some Bonine and my sea legs with me - lol.
I know that winds were gusting over 60 MPH and now sure of the wave height..does anyone know the best place to get weather history for the GOM?
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20614
786. AussieStorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 16:07 (GMT)
MAJOR flooding is expected across northern NSW in coming days, leading to predictions of scenes not witnessed since the great floods of 1990.

An evacuation order was issued for the Weilmoringle and Goodooga communities, in Brewarrina Shire, on Friday.

The State Emergency Service (SES) has warned residents to leave the area no later than tomorrow due to the risk of property damage.

An SES spokeswoman said today that residents were in the process of leaving their homes, with most organising alternative accommodation with family and friends.

It comes after heavy rain deluged southern parts of Queensland, causing the biggest floods in 100 years, some of which is now flowing across the border into NSW.

SES operations controller Tony Casey predicts the Weilmoringle and Goodooga flooding will cause "significant damage'' within the week.
"The forecast flooding is likely to cause significant damage to homes and will pose a direct threat to the residents if they wait too long before they evacuate,'' he said in a statement.

The Bureau of Meteorology says major flooding is also expected on the Culgoa, Bokhara, Birrie, Paroo, Barwon and Narran river systems, all in the state's north.

Flood levels are expected to exceed those of April 1990, when vast areas of land in northern NSW and southern Queensland were submerged and hundreds of homes damaged, the bureau added.
Other evacuation orders will be made if or when they are necessary, the SES says.

River levels in the north of the state are already high following heavy rain since Christmas.

They are now being increased further by heavy rain in Queensland, which is filtering into NSW.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
785. AussieStorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 15:44 (GMT)
Goodnight all.
Stay safe
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
784. AussieStorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting severstorm:

Thanks Aussie, I'm talking from Mother N.

It was a beautiful blue day here in Sydney today. Overnight low was 57 daytime high was 81 and currently it's 66.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
783. severstorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

less wind from you or from mother nature. j/ks

Thanks Aussie, I'm talking from Mother N.
Member Since: 25.11.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
782. AussieStorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Models have ULUI missing Australia but going extremely close to the North Island of New Zealand.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
781. AussieStorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting severstorm:
Good Morning StormW Good Evening Aussie,Great day on tap temps to 70 and less wind.

less wind from you or from mother nature. j/ks
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
780. severstorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Good Morning StormW Good Evening Aussie,Great day on tap temps to 70 and less wind.
Member Since: 25.11.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
779. AussieStorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Thousands flee as cyclone slams into Fiji
Pacific correspondent Campbell Cooney and wires, Monday March 15, 2010

A powerful cyclone has hit Fiji, damaging homes and crops and prompting thousands of evacuations.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas is now rated at Category Four and has made landfall over Fiji's northern islands.

There are no early reports of casualties, although reports said one woman drowned over the weekend in stormy seas.

The director of Fiji's Disaster Management Authority, Pajiliai Dobui, says many who lived in its path have been evacuated.

"About 5,000 are already taking shelter in most of the shelters of the northern division," he said.

Fiji's Meteorological Service says the cyclone is packing winds averaging up to 175 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify later today and into early Tuesday, with average wind speeds rising to 200kph, and gusts of up to 270kph.

Inia Seruiratu, the head official in the northern region, says weather conditions have worsened dramatically during the day.

"You can see trees swaying and likewise the electrical wires and cables that are running between the poles," he told state radio, adding that conditions would be worse in other areas.

Officials say communications have been lost with smaller islands closer to the eye of the cyclone.

There are reports of damage to homes, other buildings and crops, and Vanua Levu is without power today.

One resident, Alifereti Fisaitu, says his town has escaped damage, but others were not so lucky.

"We have got news from some of our relatives that entire villages, called Wainiika, Nuku and Vatu, are all under seawater and the villagers have fled to an evacuation centre," he said.

On its present track, the eye of Cylone Tomas is expected to pass to the east of Vanua Levu and the largest island Viti Levu, although many smaller islands will be close to its path.

Fiji's main centres were put under curfew overnight on Sunday. This was lifted during the day, except in the northern region, but is set to be reimposed nationwide tonight.

Schools have been closed and most public services suspended throughout the country.

Meanwhile, emergency officials in Solomon Islands are keeping watch on Tropical Cyclone Ului, which hit its southern provinces overnight.

There have been few reports of major damage and no reports of any lives lost.

The cyclone is in the Coral Sea, more than 1,400 kilometres north-east of Mackay in north Queensland, and is moving slowly west-south-west.

The weather bureau says it is unlikely to pose a threat to the Queensland coast.

- ABC/AFP
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
778. AussieStorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Quoting msgambler:
Good Morning Storm, Levi, and everyone else. Hope ya'lls mornin' is as beautiful as mine. Went on a emergency call this morning and saw an awesome sunrise over the river, 50 degrees. Wow, wish they could all be that pretty.

Good morning.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
776. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 12:57 (GMT)


latet GFS-MRF shows the cold shot coming
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
775. weathermanwannabe
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 12:54 (GMT)
Good Morning. Possible "cold shot" aside, looks like very nice weather this week for the SE Conus and no severe weather over the next several days.....A nice start to Spring.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8308
774. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 12:33 (GMT)
60'S for highs all week till sat then back to winter for 3 or 4 days with some snow possible
looks like winters last blast hopefully
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
772. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 12:11 (GMT)
<
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
771. msgambler
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 11:55 (GMT)
Good Morning Storm, Levi, and everyone else. Hope ya'lls mornin' is as beautiful as mine. Went on a emergency call this morning and saw an awesome sunrise over the river, 50 degrees. Wow, wish they could all be that pretty.
Member Since: 27.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
769. CybrTeddy
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 09:53 (GMT)
Quoting altesticstorm10:
5-10 knots above average in the Gulf and below average in the EPAC?

El Nino all over again!


Shear is much below average for an El Nino year across most of the Atlantic ocean.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
768. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 09:25 (GMT)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
18:00 PM FST March 15 2010
======================================

For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

For Fiji and Rotuma
====================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, EASTERN TIP OF VANUA LEVU, RABI, KIOA, TAVEUNI, QAMEA, LAUCALA, NAITAUBA, YACATA, KANACEA, MAGO, CICIA, BATIKI, MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, KORO, MAKOGAI, GAU, VANUA BALAVU, NAYAU, LAKEBA, KABARA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, BEQA, KADAVU AND THE REST OF THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUPS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.


At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas (930 hPa) located at 16.1S 179.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. Position GOOD based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Cyclone has intensified slightly over the last 6 hours. Cyclone lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Outflow good in all sectors. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered southerly by the deep northerly layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on OW eye and LG surround yielding DT 5.5

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

Consensus of the global models agree on southerly track and intensification, but the cyclone is expected to move into a increasingly sheared environment and weaken south of 20S.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.3S 179.6W - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 19.1S 179.5W - 105 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 24.9S 176.2W - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 14:30 PM UTC...
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
767. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 07:22 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, CAT 4
5:00 PM EST March 15 2010
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 4 (925 hPa) located at 13.0S 158.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/S/24hrs

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.3S 158.0E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS: 13.5S 157.5E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS: 14.3S 158.2E - 125 knots (CAT 5)
72 HRS: 16.4S 159.2E - 125 knots (CAT 5)

Additional Information
==========================
Analysis based on Vis pic with embedded centre.

DT is 6.0, MET is 6.0 also, Final T 6.0. CI is 6.0

System has reintensified during the past 6 hours with a better defined eye. Outflow to south remains very strong.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
766. ycd0108
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 05:43 (GMT)
Good on you Atmoaggie!
Had a "snow crash" a couple of weeks ago and actually did other things. My nieces, nephews and grandkids come around here sometimes and sort of acknowledge Grandpa but they are still'Talking to their pockets'
Their wi/fi thingys screw up my router.
Member Since: 1.01.2008 Posts: 171 Comments: 4414
765. Tazmanian
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 04:12 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


Well I'm not a solar scientist, but geomagnetic storms are where strong solar radiation, such as from a solar flare or CME, bombards the earth's atmosphere, resulting in strong auroral displays and sometimes disruptions in communication and electrical networks due to the electro-magnetic properties of the radiation.



nic
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
764. PcolaDan
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 04:11 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:
last 48hrs of Cyclone Ului, with EWRC at the end.


Here is Tomas

Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
763. Levi32
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 04:04 (GMT)
Quoting Tazmanian:
what are geomagnetic storms????
Quoting Tazmanian:
what kind of radiation could we see?


Well I'm not a solar scientist, but geomagnetic storms are where strong solar radiation, such as from a solar flare or CME, bombards the earth's atmosphere, resulting in strong auroral displays and sometimes disruptions in communication and electrical networks due to the electro-magnetic properties of the radiation.

This particular event is quite minor.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26460
761. Tazmanian
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:59 (GMT)
what kind of radiation could we see?
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
760. Tazmanian
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:55 (GMT)
what are geomagnetic storms????
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
759. Tazmanian
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:55 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


Like they said it could cause some geomagnetic storms and aurora, but the only reason it's a big deal is because we just went through the solar minimum and haven't seen any C-class or higher flares in a very long time. In a few years when we're near the solar maximum C-class flares will be an almost daily occurrence. Only M-class and X-class flares are really considered major events.



how bad is M Class and X Class???
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
758. Levi32
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:48 (GMT)
Quoting Tazmanian:



but still thats strong right ??? and its comeing are way


Like they said it could cause some geomagnetic storms and aurora, but the only reason it's a big deal is because we just went through the solar minimum and haven't seen any C-class or higher flares in a very long time. In a few years when we're near the solar maximum C-class flares will be an almost daily occurrence. Only M-class and X-class flares are really considered major events.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26460
757. Tazmanian
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:47 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


It's not too bad....this sunspot is only producing C-class flares.




but still thats strong right ??? and its comeing are way
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
756. Levi32
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:45 (GMT)
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is not goood this is not good


INCOMING: This morning, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded a halo CME emerging from the vicinity of sunspot 1054: movie. The cloud appears to be heading toward Earth and it could spark geomagnetic storms when it arrives on or about March 17th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.


Link





It's not too bad....this sunspot is only producing C-class flares.

Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26460
755. Tazmanian
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:43 (GMT)
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is not goood this is not good


INCOMING: This morning, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded a halo CME emerging from the vicinity of sunspot 1054: movie. The cloud appears to be heading toward Earth and it could spark geomagnetic storms when it arrives on or about March 17th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.


Link



Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
754. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:41 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
753. AussieStorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:40 (GMT)
last 48hrs of Cyclone Ului, with EWRC at the end.


Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
751. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:35 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
KOG..why post in red?
its a warning
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
750. Levi32
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:35 (GMT)
Quoting altesticstorm10:
5-10 knots above average in the Gulf and below average in the EPAC?

El Nino all over again!


The gulf doesn't really matter in terms of shear this time of year, as the subtropical jet regularly flows directly above it during the winter. Lower-than-normal shear values in the Caribbean and the deep tropical Atlantic are what bring attention at this time of the year.

Edit: if you were talking about the CFS forecast instead of the current conditions, then disregard this comment lol.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26460
749. PcolaDan
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:33 (GMT)
Quoting gordydunnot:
Gotcha Pcola you know how tourist towns are a like. Since if you are in Florida for the last 40 to 50 yrs. you are from one.


I grew up in Pensacola and remember the quadricentennial celebration in 1959. Last year we had a 450 year celebration and had a visit from King Juan Carlos and Queen Sophia from Spain. As a side note, I don't believe we got our name from any "Panzacola" Indians, but that's a whole other dissertation.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
748. Tazmanian
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:32 (GMT)
this is not goood this is not good


INCOMING: This morning, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded a halo CME emerging from the vicinity of sunspot 1054: movie. The cloud appears to be heading toward Earth and it could spark geomagnetic storms when it arrives on or about March 17th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.


Link



Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
746. AussieStorm
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:29 (GMT)
Tomas may be 'worst cyclone ever'



* From correspondents in Auckland
* From: AAP
* March 15, 2010 11:39AM
A TROPICAL cyclone heading for Fiji may be the worst cyclone to ever strike the South Pacific nation.

Fiji Meteorological Service senior forecaster, Matt Boterhoven, said Cyclone Tomas had intensified overnight and was now a category four storm.

Mr Boterhoven said the northern island of Vanua Levu was most at risk, with winds likely to peak at over 200km/h in the next 24 hours.

"There's going to be a whole lot of flooding," he said late this morning.

"(It's a) very destructive hurricane force area so they'll be getting quiet a battering over the next 12 hours."

According to local media reports, Cyclone Tomas claimed its first victim yesterday, when 31-year-old Fijian woman was killed trying to save her family from being washed away in huge waves that crashed into the coast of Vanua Levu.
A spokeswoman for Fiji Police, Ema Mua, said the nation was undertaking last minute preparations for a "disastrous" thrashing.

"We were looking at the difference between the forces of all the cyclones that have happened in Fiji," said Mua, as her colleagues hammered boards to windows.

"It's moving very, very slowly but at the same time it's picking up a lot, a lot, of force.

"That is why the categories have been proceeding.

"If it doesn't lessen down then it could be the worst to ever hit the country."

Australian tourist, Clare Melvin, said she was evacuated from her accommodation at Plantation Island yesterday afternoon.

"They basically said to us, 'If you've got kids, you should go'," Ms Melvin said.

She had been holidaying in Fiji with her husband and two small children for a week.

"Everybody just jumped on this big boat and came back (to the mainland) and they just threw our luggage on the ground and we just all had to scramble for it," she said.

"It was ridiculous."

She said women were crying in the hotel lobby and everyone was "pretty scared".

"All the Fijians are kind of freaking out themselves, you can tell, cause there's no animals around," the Sydneysider said.

"It's unusually still. It's really weird.

"It's just overcast and kind of dark, but yesterday afternoon the sky was a really strange colour, it was like dark orange and black."

Tourism Fiji said Air New Zealand and V-Australia had cancelled all Fiji services until further notice and Air Pacific said it would postpone flights to Fiji ex-Auckland, Brisbane and Sydney until tomorrow.


Cyclone Ului is moving west while Cyclone Tomas threatens Fiji

Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
745. gordydunnot
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:24 (GMT)
Gotcha Pcola you know how tourist towns are a like. Since if you are in Florida for the last 40 to 50 yrs. you are from one.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
744. atmoaggie
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:22 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Good for you Aggie! Family always comes first!

When the 5-year-old knows the nuances of the DVR better than he knows (generally) how to play soccer...well, there's a sign. Unplug.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
743. atmoaggie
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:19 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:


..Ask presslord,never

..why we shared a Meal Tuesday next to St. Louis Cathedral in New Orleans,..I had the Shrimp Creole and Press had,..Jambalaya I think


We ate here

Menu,

Ohhh, the tomato-y creole-style jambalaya there is great! I usually prefer the other style, myself...unless I am there.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
742. GeoffreyWPB
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:18 (GMT)
Good for you Aggie! Family always comes first!
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
741. PcolaDan
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:18 (GMT)
Quoting gordydunnot:
I thought Saint Augustine was the earliest city in the U.S. 1516. Somebody named Ponce De Leon. Am I off buy a century I hope not.


St Augustine is the oldest continuous city. Was established a few years later by the Spanish. Pensacola was the first attempt in 1559, but abandoned because of the hurricane. St Augustine was deemed more politically and militarily necessary when Spain decided to try again in the early 1560s. Ponce de Leon was actually a few years earlier than either settlement, the first to explore Florida.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
740. atmoaggie
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:15 (GMT)
Quoting EnergyMoron:
So what is everybody doing?

Plugging things back in...had an electrical distraction-free weekend with the family.

Saturday morning I went around unplugging everything and collecting batteries from various devices. No TV, no internet, no computer, no Nintendo, no Pod, no cell phones. Power wires and batteries in a sack in the closet...bored? Go outside, or something. Was a very fun and productive weekend with the family. I think we are going to do that at least once a month...possibly more often in the future.

Unplugged is quite nice, sometimes.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
739. GeoffreyWPB
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:14 (GMT)
KOG..why post in red?
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
738. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. maaliskuuta 2010 klo 03:14 (GMT)

150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 159.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH A 25 NM EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 130 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 20P HAS SUSTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT THAT
ENHANCING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 20P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
IN AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU
24. TC ULUI WILL THEN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR)WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS. BY TAU 72, THE
STR WILL BUILD BACK IN AND TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WILL PREVAIL WITH THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE
BUT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THROUGH
TAU 36. MODEL SPREAD THEN INCREASES WITH THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE
TURN SOUTHWARD. GFDN, GFS, AND NOGAPS FAVOR AN EARLIER AND SHARPER
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST PRESUMABLY DUE TO A STRONGER NER. THIS FORECAST
IS TO THE WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A LESS SHARP POLEWARD
PROGRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P
(TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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