Heavy snow, high winds, flooding for the Northeast; destructive Winter Storm Xynthia nears Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 26. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:12 (GMT)

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A major winter storm continues to pound the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. today, as a powerful 979 mb low pressure system stalled out over Long Island Sound brings heavy snow, flooding rains, and high winds to the region. The storm dropped more than two feet of snow over Eastern New York near Albany, and surrounding regions of Western Massachusetts and Southern Vermont. One location in Vermont, West Halifax, received over three feet of snow--38.5". Heavy rains in excess of three inches has fallen over large sections of Northeast, including 8.38" at Scarborough, Maine. Rivers have spilled out of their banks over sections of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and southwestern Maine, resulting in many road closures. Sustained winds of 25 - 40 mph have been common all along the coast, with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph common in the Appalachian Mountains. The prize for most extreme weather goes to New Hampshire's Mount Washington. At midnight, the Mount Washington Observatory reported sustained winds of 104 mph, gusting to 123, visibility zero in moderate snow, and a temperature of 21°F.

Fourth greatest snow for New York City, and still accumulating
The storm has dumped 20.8" of snow on New York City's Central Park as of 1pm EST today, making it the 4th largest snowstorm for the city in recorded history. With another 1 - 3 inches likely for the city today, the storm should rank as the 3rd largest snowfall on record before it's over. According to the National Weather Service, the top ten snowstorms on record for New York City's Central Park should now read:

26.9" Feb 11-12, 2006
26.4" Dec 26-27, 1947
21.0" Mar 12-14, 1888
20.8" Feb 25-26, 2010
20.2" Jan 7-8, 1996
19.8" Feb 16-17, 2003
18.1" Mar 7-8, 1941
17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978
17.6" Feb 11-12, 1983
17.5" Feb 4-7, 1920


Figure 1. Total radar-estimated precipitation from this week's storm over Maine. A large swath of 4+ inches of precipitation has fallen on a wet snowpack, creating flooding problems.

Today's storm will linger and slowly weaken through Saturday, bringing an additional 6+ inches of snow over portions of southeast New York, western Connecticut, and western Massachusetts. The strong winds will die down by tonight, aiding the efforts of utility repair crews struggling to keep up with all the power outages created by combination of high winds and wet, heavy snow.

Next storm
The active storm pattern isn't going to change over the few weeks for the Eastern U.S. The next potential snowstorm will be Tuesday, and will affect the Southeast U.S. Although it is too early to be confident of the amount or type of precipitation this storm will bring, snow will be a possibility for northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and portions of North and South Carolina.

Destructive Winter Storm Xynthia headed for Europe
A large 1000 mb low pressure system named "Xynthia" is over the eastern Atlantic, and is expected to rapidly intensify Saturday morning into a meteorological "bomb" that will bring high winds and flooding rains to Portugal, northern Spain, and western France. The models are coming into better agreement now, and have shifted their position for the storm's maximum intensity eastwards. France is now in the bullseye, and the storm is predicted to be at maximum intensity on Sunday morning when it will be positioned over northwestern France. The storm's powerful cold front will sweep ashore south of the low, bringing sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph (80 - 95 km/hr) to the coast of France's Bay of Biscay, with gusts over hurricane force (120 km/hr). The central pressure at that time will range from 966 mb to 972 mb, according to two of our top computer models, the ECMWF and GFS. This is about the same intensify as last year's Winter Storm Klaus. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra. Meteo-France has put out a bulletin warning of the possibility of hurricane-force wind gusts on Sunday, and is recommending that residents limit travel and avoid the threatened areas if the forecasts remains on track. While the storm is not expected to be as intense when it moves over Portugal and northern Spain on Saturday, these regions will still receive tropical storm-force wind with gusts to hurricane force. The Spanish Meteorological Agency is warning of the possibility of 100 mph (160 km/hr) wind gusts over northern Spain on Saturday. The damage total from this weekend's storm over all of Europe will probably exceed $1 billion, making it the globe's second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2010. The first was the back-to-back blizzards over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region earlier this month, which are being blamed for over $2 billion in insured losses, according to Eqecat, a risk management firm.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Xynthia.


Figure 3. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/26/10 run of the GFS model for 00 GMT Sunday for surface winds. The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure of 972 mb. Sustained winds just below hurricane force of 60 - 75 mph (green colors) are expected offshore from France. Image was generated using our wundermap for France with the "model" layer turned on.

Links to follow:
La Palma, Canary Islands was reporting sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 45 mph today.
Wundermap for Northwest Spain
Spanish radar
Meteo-France
Portugese radar
Meteored.com Spanish weather forum
Portugese weather forum
French weather forum

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
The damage from last month's catastrophic earthquake in Haiti has now been estimated at $7.2 billion to $13.2 billion, according to a study released last week by the Inter-American Development Bank. This figure is 1 - 2 times the $7 billion GDP of Haiti estimated by the World Bank. In the face of such a massive disaster, every little bit of help is needed, and Portlight.org has been doing a fantastic job getting relief into Haiti for those who need it most. Below is a link to a 3-minute long piece E News did on Portlight's efforts in Haiti:



Other press:
Much-Needed Rehab Equipment Obtained through Portlight.org, from the Real Medicine Foundation Blog.

Bill Ranic's Blog

The Portlight disaster-relief effort continues in Haiti, and please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate.

Next post
I'll have a post this weekend.

Jeff Masters

NYC snowstorm (grach)
Third avenue
NYC snowstorm
Tree Collapse - Beech Court (thesspa)
Tree Collapse - Beech Court

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572. taco2me61
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:39 (GMT)
Hey is there a web cam that could pulled up from the Hawaii Islands?

I can't find a link to it if there is.....

Thanks Taco :0)
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3179
571. taco2me61
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:33 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
In the last 12 hours there has been 40 aftershocks in Central Chile. The weakest one being a 4.9 and the most intense being a 6.9.


Some of those were with-in the last 2 hours....
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3179
570. AwakeInMaryland
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:31 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What time for Hawaii? Also, what is the offset from CST? Thanx in advance.


Hi, Doug...about 4pm east coast time...read backaways...Levi posted...sorry, I'm on the webbernets run...
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
569. CybrTeddy
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:30 (GMT)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Looking at the map above the tsunami is just before the 12 hour period, thus putting the center of the wave at: 13.24S 133.95W (My Estimate).


Thats about here;

Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
568. MiamiHurricanes09
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:29 (GMT)
In the last 12 hours there has been 40 aftershocks in Central Chile. The weakest one being a 4.9 and the most intense being a 6.9.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
567. PensacolaDoug
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:27 (GMT)
What time for Hawaii? Also, what is the offset from CST? Thanx in advance.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
566. Skyepony (Mod)
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:27 (GMT)
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 11
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
904 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON - BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO
ATTU ALASKA...

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH COULD IMPACT THE ADVISORY
REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE. PERSONS IN LOW-LYING COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE
AGENCIES.
- PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

THIS MESSAGE IS BASED ON EARTHQUAKE DATA... OBSERVED TSUNAMI
AMPLITUDES... HISTORICAL INFORMATION AND FORECAST MODELS.

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES

LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL
------------------------ ----- ------ ------- -----------
IQUIQUE CHILE 20.2S 70.2W 0851UTC 0.30M/1.0FT
ANTOFAGASTA CHILE 23.3S 70.4W 0956UTC 0.46M/1.4FT
ANCUD CHILE 41.9S 74.3W 0943UTC 0.34M/1.1FT
CORRAL CHILE 39.9S 73.4W 1012UTC 1.54M/5.2FT
CALLAO LA PUNTA PERU 12.1S 77.2W 1029UTC 0.66M/2.2FT
BALTRA ECUADOR 0.4S 90.3W 1430UTC 0.45M/1.5FT
QUEPO COSTA RICA 9.4N 84.2W 1417UTC 0.27M/0.9FT
ACAPULCO MEXICO 16.8N 99.9W 1549UTC 0.34M/1.1FT
SANTA CRUZ GALAPAGOS E 0.5S 90.2W 1241UTC 1.07M/3.5FT
MANZANILLO MEXICO 19.0N 104.2W 1636UTC 0.23M/0.7FT
TSUNAMI FORECASTS AT SELECTED POINTS -
LA JOLLA CA 0.8M/2.6 FT LOS ANGELES CA 0.8M/2.6 FT
MAILBU CA 1.0M/3.3 FT PISMO BEACH CA 1.4M/4.6 FT
HALF MOON BAY CA 1.0M/3.3 FT SAN FRANCISCO CA 0.2M/0.7 FT
HUMBOLDT BAY CA 0.4M/1.3FT CRESCENT CITY CA 0.6M/2.0 FT
PORT ORFORD OR 0.3M/1.0 FT MOCLIPS WA 0.4M/1.3 FT
TOFINO BC 0.5M/1.7 FT SITKA AK 0.4M/1.3 FT
SEWARD AK 0.4M/1.3 FT KODIAK AK 0.7M/2.3 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK APPROXIMATELY TWO HOURS
AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL.

TIME - TIME OF MEASUREMENT
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 8.8
TIME - 2134 AKST FEB 26 2010
2234 PST FEB 26 2010
0634 UTC FEB 27 2010
LOCATION - 36.1 SOUTH 72.6 WEST
- NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
DEPTH - 19 MILES/31 KM

THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII WILL
ISSUE MESSAGES FOR HAWAII AND OTHER AREAS OF THE PACIFIC
OUTSIDE THE STATES AND PROVINCES PREVIOUSLY LISTED.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR THE
WATER IS IMMINENT OR EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS UNDER AN ADVISORY. CURRENTS MAY BE
HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS... BOATS... AND COASTAL STRUCTURES AND MAY
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 60 MINUTES OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

PZZ650-655-673-750-775-565-670-530-535-545-560-455-540-450-
356-255-310-350-210-250-110-130>135-150-153-156-170-PKZ310-
031>036-041-042-011>013-021-022-043-051-052-053-120-121-125>129-
130-140-141-132-136>138-150-155-170-171-172-175-176-CAZ039>043-
087-034-035-530-006-506-508-509-529-002-505-001-ORZ022-002-
021-001-WAZ001-021-503-506>511-514>517-AKZ023-024-026>029-
018>022-025-017-131-135-121-125-145-171-181-185-187-191-271834-
/O.CON.PAAQ.TS.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO
BORDER TO ATTU ALASKA
904 AM PST SAT FEB 27 2010

...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON - BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO
ATTU ALASKA...

PERSONS IN TSUNAMI ADVISORY AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.

TSUNAMI ADVISORIES MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PERSONS IN OR VERY NEAR
WATER IS IMMINENT OF EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS IN AN ADVISORY. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF
WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL
TIME. ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED
SITES IN THE ADVISORY ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

LA JOLLA-CA 1202 PST FEB 27 YAKUTAT-AK 1619 AKST FEB 27
SANTA BARBARA-CA 1231 PST FEB 27 KODIAK-AK 1628 AKST FEB 27
SAN FRANCISCO-CA 1326 PST FEB 27 SAND PT.-AK 1629 AKST FEB 27
CRESCENT CITY-CA 1346 PST FEB 27 JUNEAU-AK 1635 AKST FEB 27
CHARLESTON-OR 1402 PST FEB 27 DUTCH HARBOR-AK 1638 AKST FEB 27
SEASIDE-OR 1446 PST FEB 27 SEWARD-AK 1639 AKST FEB 27
WESTPORT-WA 1457 PST FEB 27 ADAK-AK 1642 AKST FEB 27
NEAH BAY-WA 1507 PST FEB 27 VALDEZ-AK 1657 AKST FEB 27
TOFINO-BC 1515 PST FEB 27 CORDOVA-AK 1706 AKST FEB 27
LANGARA-BC 1551 PST FEB 27 COLD BAY-AK 1709 AKST FEB 27
SITKA-AK 1529 AKST FEB 27 SHEMYA-AK 1721 AKST FEB 27
KETCHIKAN-AK 1549 AKST FEB 27 HOMER-AK 1739 AKST FEB 27
FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

$$



Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36157
565. nrtiwlnvragn
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:27 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10470
564. drg0dOwnCountry
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:25 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
563. AwakeInMaryland
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:24 (GMT)
My son, on Maui, is pretty-well packed up it seems.

Guess what he forgot -- CERT 100 -- a hand-held can opener!!

Aussie
, will you be affected personally? Sorry, I'm reading on the run...

Prayers...
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
562. MiamiHurricanes09
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:23 (GMT)


Looking at the map above the tsunami is just before the 12 hour period, thus putting the center of the wave at: 13.24S 133.95W (My Estimate).
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
561. taco2me61
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:23 (GMT)
My Heart and Prayers go out to all thats in it's wake of this Earthquake and Tsunami....

Taco :0)
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3179
560. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:22 (GMT)


TWO MORE TREMORS LAST HR
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52353
559. AussieStorm
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:16 (GMT)


IDY68028

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

MEDIA:
No use of the Standard Emergency Warning Signal (SEWS)
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE AND FREQUENT BROADCAST
********************************************************************************
TSUNAMI WARNING NUMBER 8 FOR NEW SOUTH WALES
Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at
4:00 AM EDT on Sunday 28 February 2010
********************************************************************************

TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT

********************************************************************************
SUMMARY:
Tsunami warning for the marine environment for NEW SOUTH WALES.

Threatened areas extend over all New South Wales coastal areas from Gabo Island
to Point Danger.

Possibility of dangerous waves, strong ocean currents and foreshore flooding
for several hours from 08:00 am (EDT) Sunday.

Sea level observations HAVE confirmed a tsunami has been generated.

For further details visit the Bureau web site www.bom.gov.au.

Next update due by 5:30 AM EDT on Sunday 28 February 2010
********************************************************************************
DETAILS:
Tsunami waves are more powerful than the same size beach waves, with the first
wave not always the largest. First tsunami effects are expected as follows:

Gabo Island after 08:00 am (EDT) Sunday
Sydney after 08:45 am (EDT) Sunday
Crowdy Head after 08:45 am (EDT) Sunday
Coffs Harbour after 09:00 am (EDT) Sunday
Byron Bay after 09:15 am (EDT) Sunday
Tweed Heads after 09:15 am (EST) Sunday


Check that your neighbours have received this advice.

Boats in harbours, estuaries or shallow coastal water should return to shore.
Secure your boat and move away from the waterfront. Vessels already at sea
should stay offshore in deep water until further advised.

Do not go to the coast to watch the tsunami, as there is the possibility of
dangerous, localised flooding of the immediate foreshore.

For emergency assistance, call NEW SOUTH WALES STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE on 132
500

Maps showing the affected areas are on the Bureau web site
www.bom.gov.au/tsunami. For a repeat of this warning call 1300 TSUNAMI (1300
878 6264).
********************************************************************************
TSUNAMI SOURCE:
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 8.8 occurred at 5:34 PM EDT on Saturday 27
February 2010 near THE COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE (latitude 35.320S longitude
72.930W )
********************************************************************************
The JATWC is operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience
Australia
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
558. drg0dOwnCountry
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:12 (GMT)
Water receding in Peru
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
557. MiamiHurricanes09
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:11 (GMT)
Good Afternoon everyone. I see Chile has been affected by an 8.8 magnitude earthquake. I'll keep you all posted.
Member Since: 2.09.2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
556. drg0dOwnCountry
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:09 (GMT)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Looking at the energy map of the tsunami, the main plume is pointed directly at the epicenter of the Ryukyu Islands earthquake!

Intresting. Sounds like a domino effect.

Domino Effect of Indonesiaon Earthquakes

'Domino' Earthquakes
earthquakes along one type of fault in the area could trigger temblors along other faults.
Researchers gained new insight into how earthquakes can interact from a magnitude 7.9 quake along Alaska's Denali Fault in November 2002 that involved a chain reaction of fault shaking. Greg Anderson of the United States Geological Survey and his colleagues analyzed four faults in southern California--the Sierra Madre, the Cucamonga, the San Andreas and the San Jacinto faults--to try to predict how they might affect one another.
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
555. Barefootontherocks
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:07 (GMT)
These links may be of use to some.

NOAA-general tsunami and preparedness info

Basics of a tsunami and Tsunami modeling

Lots of good links on these pages for those who wish to understand tsunami mechanics.

Are warnings anticipated for the GOM? The tsunami generated by the 9.2 1964 Good Friday earthquake in Prince William Sound Alaska caused some damage along the GOM as well as in Alaska and along the West Coast. Not that this one will. Doesn't hurt to be alert.
Member Since: 29.04.2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17545
554. Patrap
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:07 (GMT)
The airliner comparison is a Bad one.

The Tsunami,is traveling ene and propagating at around 460 mph,...
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
553. AussieStorm
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 17:00 (GMT)
Tsunami warning for the marine environment for NEW SOUTH WALES.

Threatened areas extend from Broken Bay to Point Danger.

Possibility of dangerous waves, strong ocean currents and foreshore flooding
for several hours from 08:45 am (EDT) Sunday.

Further south from about 8am Sunday for coastal areas from Broken Bay to Gabo
Island, there are likely to be unusual currents and tides during Sunday. At
this stage, those areas, including the coast and bays around Sydney Harbour,
are not considered to be under threat of significant tsunami effects.

Sea level observations HAVE confirmed a tsunami has been generated.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
552. Chicklit
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:56 (GMT)
As the tsunami crosses the deep ocean, its length from crest to crest may be a hundred miles or more, and its height from crest to trough will only be a few feet or less. They can not be felt aboard ships nor can they be seen from the air in the open ocean. In the deepest oceans, the waves will reach speeds exceeding 600 miles per hour (970 km/hr). When the tsunami enters the shoaling water of coastlines in its path, the velocity of its waves diminishes and the wave height increases. It is in these shallow waters that a large tsunami can crest to heights exceeding 100 feet (30 m) and strike with devastating force.

As a tsunami leaves the deep water of the open sea and propagates into the more shallow waters near the coast, it undergoes a transformation. Since the speed of the tsunami is related to the water depth, as the depth of the water decreases, the speed of the tsunami diminishes. The change of total energy of the tsunami remains constant. Therefore, the speed of the tsunami decreases as it enters shallower water, and the height of the wave grows. Because of this "shoaling" effect, a tsunami that was imperceptible in deep water may grow to be several feet or more in height.


From "Physics of Tsunamis"
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
551. CybrTeddy
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:55 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

800km/h. same speed as a jet airliner


800km/h? This thing is cooking. The news is saying there is a 'possibility' that there is a Tsunami. But all the Buoys that you guys are posting is indicating there IS a Tsunami.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
550. Levi32
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:54 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Alright, 2900 NM away.
Then what is the speed of the Tsunami?


At the time that buoy recorded the wave it was approximately 7 hours away from Hawaii, which puts it travelling at approximately 414 nautical miles per hour, which is 476 miles per hour.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
548. AstroHurricane001
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:54 (GMT)
Looking at the energy map of the tsunami, the main plume is pointed directly at the epicenter of the Ryukyu Islands earthquake!
Member Since: 30.08.2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
547. AussieStorm
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:53 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Alright, 2900 NM away.
Then what is the speed of the Tsunami?

800km/h. same speed as a jet airliner
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
546. CybrTeddy
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:50 (GMT)
Alright, 2900 NM away.
Then what is the speed of the Tsunami?
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
545. AwakeInMaryland
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:49 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
All 100 US Embassy personnel have been accounted for in Chile.


Thank you! I was wondering -- that's my extended family!
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
544. AussieStorm
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:48 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


Approximately 2900 nm southeast of Hawaii.

Station 51406
2,900 NM Southeast of Hawaii

Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
543. CybrTeddy
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:48 (GMT)
Impact will be at 4:19 p.m EST.

THIS however is concerning.

Link

Hawaii woke residents with sirens, alerting them to the waves. A tsunami warning — the highest alert level — was issued earlier for the island chain. Boats and people near the coast were being evacuated. Hilo International Airport, located along the coast, was closed.

Residents lined up at supermarkets to stock up on water, canned food and batteries. Cars lined up 15 long at several gas stations.

The first waves were expected at 11:19 a.m. Saturday (4:19 p.m. EST; 2119 GMT). Most Pacific Rim nations, awaiting further data, did not order evacuations but advised people in low-lying areas to be on the lookout.

Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
542. nrtiwlnvragn
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:47 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

I think they trigger an event in order to collect more frequent obs than the 15 minute default when expecting there to be something to measure.


The BPR collects temperature and pressure at 15-second intervals. The pressure values are corrected for temperature effects and the pressure converted to an estimated sea-surface height (height of the ocean surface above the seafloor) by using a constant 670 mm/psia. The system has two data reporting modes, standard and event. The system operates routinely in standard mode, in which four spot values (of the 15-s data) at 15-minute intervals of the estimated sea surface height are reported at scheduled transmission times. When the internal detection software (Mofjeld) identifies an event, the system ceases standard mode reporting and begins event mode transmissions. In event mode, 15-second values are transmitted during the initial few minutes, followed by 1-minute averages. Event mode messages also contain the time of the initial occurrence of the event. The system returns to standard transmission after 4 hours of 1-minute real-time transmissions if no further events are detected.

Link


Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10470
541. Levi32
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:47 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

??? We both plotted 43412 within a few seconds of each other. Different plot, same measurement.


Yeah I know, I mean that if your buoy was indeed showing a wave, then the Mexican buoy should show the same wave any moment, since the arrival times for each buoy are nearly identical. I don't know if the current rise on the Mexican buoy is only normal tide, which it looks like, or not.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
540. AwakeInMaryland
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:47 (GMT)
534. Chicklit, you rock.

Do they have an image like that for the Hawaiian Islands? And I apologize for not having time to do my own research.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
539. Patrap
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:46 (GMT)
All 100 US Embassy personnel have been accounted for in Chile.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
538. atmoaggie
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:45 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


Well according to your graphic, your buoy should have received a wave shortly the Mexican buoy, so it should be any moment now if your buoy is actually showing a wave.

??? We both plotted 43412 within a few seconds of each other. Different plot, same measurement.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
537. Levi32
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:45 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
any idea where the Tsunami is right now?


Approximately 2900 nm southeast of Hawaii.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
536. AwakeInMaryland
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:44 (GMT)
Can't remember which island DIL is on right now (I'm not rattled, nooooo, just have that old CRS -- Can't Remember uh, Squat)...

Sirens blaring, traffic/cars crazy, already police & FRS having hard time getting through...

Her company was sending manager out to get her, but he can't get through.

Of course I told her people would be crazy, but she should remain calm, gave her all my and your advice.

Great info, Pat, Dan, thanks for link H-H gal, if I don't name names, thank you all in advance and otherwise.

Son didn't answer phone, per usual. Got a calm-but-serious Mommy message.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
535. seflagamma
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:44 (GMT)
'morning everyone,

cannot say this is a "good" morning with all the horrible distruction from the latest Earthquake and the possible Tsunami coming to so many areas.

Glad so many are watching and updating here today. I will be lurking to keep up with what is going on.

Thank you all and Be safe!

Gams
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 294 Comments: 40840
534. Chicklit
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:44 (GMT)
Arrival Times
InitialArrivalTimesWestCoast&AK
Advisory Status
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
533. Patrap
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:44 (GMT)
Hawaii needs to pay attention to the incoming Tsunami,..

The forecast Values of wave Heights are problematic and all interest need to heed the Local Action Statements.

The forecast tsunami Heights are best estimates but the actual Impacting Waves could be Higher.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125699
532. atmoaggie
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:43 (GMT)
Quoting WaterWitch11:


could you repost this?

this?

Station 41420 - 690 NM East of Miami, FL



I think it is partly due to wind-driven waves and swell, which were about 3 meters. And 15 second measurement frequency with a 8-second period for the regular ocean waves would show *something*.

But, I would say that part of it is associated with the quake given that Lake P, here, sloshed about. It is not a tsunami signal! (IMO) (Don't panic.)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
531. CybrTeddy
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:43 (GMT)
any idea where the Tsunami is right now?
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
530. AussieStorm
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:41 (GMT)
WOW


Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
529. Levi32
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:40 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

I think they trigger an event in order to collect more frequent obs than the 15 minute default when expecting there to be something to measure.


Well according to your graphic, your buoy should have received a wave shortly the Mexican buoy, so it should be any moment now if your buoy is actually showing a wave.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
528. atmoaggie
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:39 (GMT)
Quoting Levi32:


Yes your's looks worse. I wasn't sure what was abnormal about my graph but the tsunami center said an event was triggered at that buoy, and your's, an hour ago.

I think they trigger an event in order to collect more frequent obs than the 15 minute default when expecting there to be something to measure.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
527. nrtiwlnvragn
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:39 (GMT)
FORECAST WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AND AMPLITUDES CREST TO TROUGH.

HILO 1105AM HST 2.5 METERS
HONOLULU 1137AM HST 0.5 METERS
KAHULUI 1126AM HST 2.2 METERS
NAWILIWILI 1142AM HST 0.9 METERS
HALEIWA 0.5 METERS
KAWAIHAE 0.6 METERS

THESE ARE ONLY ESTIMATES...ACTUAL VALUES MAY DIFFER.


Link
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10470
526. WaterWitch11
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:39 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
WTH?

Station 41420 - 690 NM East of Miami, FL



could you repost this?

nevermind i can see it now
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1492
525. Levi32
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:39 (GMT)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A question for Levi32.Any effects from the Tsunami waves in terms of transporting some cooler waters that are in the Southern Hemisphere cooling what is left of El Nino or is not possible for that to occur?


I'm not an expert on tsunamis but they do not "move" or "mix" water. It is a wave traveling through the water, and if it was anything but that then tsunamis would indeed have a large effect on the weather, but that is not their nature.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
524. VAbeachhurricanes
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:38 (GMT)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A question for Levi32.Any effects from the Tsunami waves in terms of transporting some cooler waters that are in the Southern Hemisphere cooling what is left of El Nino or is not possible for that to occur?


its not the water thats moving its the energy, so I do not think so.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5702
523. AussieStorm
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:38 (GMT)
IDY68028

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

MEDIA:
No use of the Standard Emergency Warning Signal (SEWS)
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE AND FREQUENT BROADCAST
********************************************************************************
TSUNAMI WARNING NUMBER 7 FOR NEW SOUTH WALES

Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at
2:45 AM EDT on Sunday 28 February 2010
********************************************************************************

TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT

********************************************************************************
SUMMARY:
Tsunami warning for the marine environment for NEW SOUTH WALES.

Threatened areas extend from Broken Bay to Point Danger.

Possibility of dangerous waves, strong ocean currents and foreshore flooding
for several hours from 08:45 am (EDT) Sunday.

Further south from about 8am Sunday for coastal areas from Broken Bay to Gabo
Island, there are likely to be unusual currents and tides during Sunday. At
this stage, those areas, including the coast and bays around Sydney Harbour,
are not considered to be under threat of significant tsunami effects.

Sea level observations HAVE confirmed a tsunami has been generated.

For further details visit the Bureau web site www.bom.gov.au.

Next update due by 4:15 AM EDT on Sunday 28 February 2010
********************************************************************************
DETAILS:
Tsunami waves are more powerful than the same size beach waves, with the first
wave not always the largest. First tsunami effects are expected as follows:

Crowdy Head after 08:45 am (EDT) Sunday
Coffs Harbour after 09:00 am (EDT) Sunday
Byron Bay after 09:15 am (EDT) Sunday
Tweed Heads after 09:15 am (EST) Sunday

Check that your neighbours have received this advice.

Boats in harbours, estuaries or shallow coastal water should return to shore.
Secure your boat and move away from the waterfront. Vessels already at sea
should stay offshore in deep water until further advised.

Do not go to the coast to watch the tsunami, as there is the possibility of
dangerous, localised flooding of the immediate foreshore.

For emergency assistance, call NEW SOUTH WALES STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE on 132
500

Maps showing the affected areas are on the Bureau web site
www.bom.gov.au/tsunami. For a repeat of this warning call 1300 TSUNAMI (1300
878 6264).
********************************************************************************
TSUNAMI SOURCE:
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 8.8 occurred at 5:34 PM EDT on Saturday 27
February 2010 near THE COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE (latitude 35.320S longitude
72.930W )
********************************************************************************
The JATWC is operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience
Australia
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
522. atmoaggie
27. helmikuuta 2010 klo 16:38 (GMT)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A question for Levi32.Any effects from the Tsunami waves in terms of transporting some cooler waters that are in the Southern Hemisphere cooling what is left of El Nino or is not possible for that to occur?

It is a series of waves, not a current.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

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