Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 30. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:23 (GMT)

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It's November 30, and the inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2009 is in the books. Residents all along the Atlantic coast can give thanks for this year's much-needed respite after the pummeling Mother Nature gave last year. The four direct deaths recorded this year represented the lowest death toll since the El Niño hurricane season of 1997, which also had four deaths. This year's season featured only nine named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes, which was 61%, 38%, and 51% of the 1995 - 2008 average activity for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively, according to the end-of-season summary posted by the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team of Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray. Higher than average wind shear, and lower than average relative humidity at middle levels of the atmosphere were primarily responsible for this year's reduced activity (Figures 1 and 2). These conditions are common during El Niño years, and this year's moderate El Niño undoubtedly contributed to the low levels of Atlantic hurricane activity observed. In addition, a stronger and more southerly than usual mid-Atlantic trough was active during much of hurricane season, contributing to high wind shear over the Atlantic.


Figure 1. Departure of relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere (500 mb, about 18,000 feet) for the August - October peak portion of the 2009 hurricane season. Subsiding air due to El Niño conditions depressed the relative humidity up to 15% below average (red colors) over the tropical Atlantic. Image credit: end-of-season summary posted by the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team of Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray, with data from NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 2. Departure of wind shear from average for the peak 60-day period of the Atlantic hurricane season. The August-October averaged 200-850 mb vertical wind shear across the Main Development Region (MDR, 10-20°N, 20-70°W) was 9.3 m/s, which was the highest vertical shear magnitude over this three-month period since the El Niño year of 2002. The 2009 August-October MDR value was also approximately 2 m/s greater than the 1995-2008 average vertical shear. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


Some other notable feature taken from the Klotzbach/Gray report:

A late-starting season. Ana did not form until August 15. This was the latest "A" storm of the season since Andrew formed in 1992 on August 17. However, the 2009 season exploded into a flurry of action August 15 - 16, when the Atlantic featured a rare triple threat of simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C--Ana, Bill, and Claudette. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1.

Nine named storms occurred during 2009. This is the fewest since 1997, when eight named storms formed.

27.25 named storm days occurred in 2009. This is the fewest named storm days since 1991, when only 24.25 named storm days were recorded.

Three hurricanes occurred in 2009. This is the fewest since 1997 when there were also three hurricanes.

Five named storms (Ana, Danny, Erika, Fred, and Henri) dissipated over the open ocean in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic this year. This is a fairly rare occurrence that typically only occurs in years such as this year that are characterized by high levels of tropospheric vertical wind shear.

11.25 hurricane days occurred in 2009. This is the fewest hurricane days since 2002 when 10.75 hurricane days were reported.

2 major hurricanes formed during the 2009 hurricane season. The last time that fewer than two major hurricanes occurred in a season was in 1997 when only one major hurricane (Erika) formed.

3.25 major hurricane days occurred in 2009. This is the fewest major hurricane days in a season since 2006 when only two major hurricane days were recorded.

The season accrued an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 50. The 1951 - 2005 average is 102.3, and the 2009 ACE was the lowest since 1997 (41) and the 16th lowest of the last 66 years since the aircraft reconnaissance era began in 1944.

No Category 5 hurricanes developed in 2009. This is the second consecutive year with no Category 5 hurricanes. The last time that two or more years occurred in a row with no Category 5 hurricanes was 1999-2002.

No named storms formed in June or July. The last time that no storm activity occurred in June or July was 2004 (Alex formed that year on August 1). This is the 18th year of the past 66 years with no storm formations in June or July.

August had above-average ACE activity. 29 ACE units were recorded during the month, which is approximately 125% of the 1950-2000 average.

58% of seasonal ACE was generated during the month of August. The last time that more than 58% of seasonal ACE was generated during the month of August was in 1942.

September was very quiet with only 11 ACE units generated during the month. This is the quietest September since 1994 when only 3 ACE units were recorded.

No ACE was generated between September 13 and October 4. The last time that this occurred was 1991. Prior to that, one has to go all the way back to 1925 to see no ACE generated during three of the most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season.

October was also very quiet with only 2 ACE units occurring. This is the quietest October since 1994 when no tropical cyclone activity occurred.

Only 13 ACE units occurred during the combined September-October period. This is the fewest ACE units during this two-month period since 1994 (3), and the fifth fewest since the aircraft reconnaissance era began in 1944.

Hurricane Bill generated 26 ACE units, or 52% of the seasonal total. The last time that one storm generated that much of the seasonal total was Erika in 1997 which generated 63% of the total ACE observed that year.

Hurricane Fred became the third storm on record to reach major hurricane status east of 35°W, although prior to 1972 when Dvorak satellite estimates from polar-orbiting satellite reconnaissance became routinely available, some storms may have been missed in the eastern part of the Atlantic basin.

Hurricane Ida became only the second hurricane to reach hurricane status in the Caribbean in November during an El Niño year (where El Niño is defined to be all years since 1950 where the October Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is 0.5ñC or greater). The only other storm to reach hurricane status in the Caribbean in November in an El Niño year was Martha in 1969.

Ida became the second latest tropical cyclone to make landfall along the Gulf Coast, trailing only Hurricane Kate in 1985 (which made landfall on November 21).

Only two tropical storms (Claudette and Ida) made U.S. landfall this year while no hurricanes made U.S. landfall. This is the first time since 2006 and the 13th time in the last 66 years where no hurricanes made U.S. landfall.

No hurricanes made landfall along the Florida Peninsula and East Coast. This marks the fourth year in a row with no hurricane landfalls along this portion of the U.S. coastline. The last time that we went four years between hurricane landfalls along the Florida Peninsula and East Coast was 1980-1983.

No major hurricanes made U.S. landfall this year. Following seven major hurricane landfalls in 2004-2005, the U.S. has not witnessed a major hurricane landfall in the past four years. The four consecutive years between 2000-2003 also experienced no major U.S. hurricane landfalls. Since 1995, the Atlantic basin has had 56 major hurricanes but only 10 (18%) have made U.S. landfall. The long-period average is that approximately 30% of major hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin make U.S. landfall.


Figure 3. The eye of Hurricane Bill on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. Photo credit: Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

Hurricane Bill
Hurricane Bill was the strongest hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Bill peaked in intensity as a lower-end Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Bill was a very large storm, and had the fifth largest diameter of tropical storm force winds on record (460 miles). Bill brought tropical storm force winds of 46 mph to the Bermuda airport as the storm passed about 175 mi west of the island at Category 2 strength, during the morning of 22 August. The hurricane then recurved and turned to the northeast with increasing forward speed, brushed the south coast of Nova Scotia early on 23 August, and made landfall as a tropical storm near the Burin Peninsula of Newfoundland.

Top winds on Newfoundland were measured at Cape Race, which recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 76 mph, between 1:30 and 2:30 am NDT on 24 August. A storm surge of 1.2 meters (4 feet) was estimated by Environment Canada for Placentia Bay where Bill made landfall. Damage was minor on Newfoundland, with no major flooding reported. Bill dumped up to three inches of rain on Newfoundland.

There were two deaths associated with Bill. A 7-year-old girl died in Acadia National Park, Maine when she was swept into the water by large waves, and a 54-year-old swimmer drowned in New Smyrna Beach, Florida in rough seas caused by Bill. The large hurricane fueled high waves over a large portion of the Atlantic basin for several days. The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic reported that these waves produced coastal flooding and damage along the north coast of the Dominican Republic. Reports from Environment Canada indicate that in Nova Scotia power outages were common (tens of thousands of residences lost power) and there were road wash-outs and localized fresh water flooding. Coastal flooding from surge and waves was widespread along much of the Atlantic coast. On Long Island, NY, beach damage was severe; in some areas the damage was the worst since Hurricane Gloria in 1985. Along the coasts of North Carolina, waves averaging 10 ft (3.0 m) in height impacted beaches. In Wrightsville Beach, up to 30 rescues were made due to strong rip currents and large swells; however, only one incident resulted in hospitalization. Severe beach erosion took place at Bald Head Island, where 150 ft (46 m) of beach was washed away, resulting in the loss of the remaining sea turtle nests.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

Tropical Storm Claudette
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT August 17, 2009, near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph as Claudette approached the coast. Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches were confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette did not cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. One death is being blamed on Claudette, a drowning off the Florida Panhandle coast.


Figure 5.. Hurricane Fred at peak strength, 8:55am EDT UTC 9/9/09. At the time, Fred was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Fred
Fred became only the fourth major hurricane on record in the far southeastern portion of the Atlantic basin (south of 30°N and east of 40°W) and is the only hurricane on record in the basin with an intensity greater than 100 kt when located south of 30°N and east of 35°W. However, it is important to note that prior to 1972 (when routine Dvorak classifications from polar-orbiting satellites began), it would have been difficult to assess the intensity of most tropical cyclones in this part of the Atlantic basin.


Figure 6. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Ida
Hurricane Ida made landfall over eastern Nicaragua on November 4 as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record as it approached Nicaragua. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). Ida is now tied for second place for fastest intensification from first advisory to hurricane strength. There have been six other storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Ida survived its crossing of Nicaragua, and intensified once it emerged over the Caribbean, eventually reaching Category 2 strength over the Gulf of Mexico as it headed northwards towards the U.S. Gulf Coast. High wind shear and cool water temperatures caused Ida to weaken dramatically before landfall in Alabama, and Ida made landfall near Dauphin Island, Alabama at 5:40 am CST November 10, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Winds at coastal locations during Ida's landfall were mostly below tropical storm force. One exception was Dauphin Island, where winds peaked at 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph, near midnight. Radar-estimated rainfall from Ida showed many regions received 3 - 5 inches of rain, which caused some minor river and street flooding. The main damage from Ida seems to have been beach erosion, as a 3 - 6 foot storm surge topped by battering waves affected a long stretch of coast, from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Ida drove a 5.5 foot storm surge to Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans). Ida was responsible for one death, a 70-year-old fisherman who knocked off of his boat in the Mississippi River by a wave as Ida approached.

The remnants of Ida merged with a Nor'easter that developed off the coast of North Carolina, and the Ida-energized Nor'easter brought the highest storm surges on record to the Atlantic coast between Norfolk, Virginia, and Lewes, Delaware.

Next year's hurricane season?
The Colorado State hurricane forecast team will be issuing their forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday, December 9. Expect them to forecast a more active season. Since 1950, there have been 17 El Niño events, and only one of them lasted through two full hurricane seasons. Thus, we can expect neutral or La Niña conditions for next year's hurricane season, which should lead to much higher levels of activity than in 2009.

Correction
In my previous post, on the Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked CRU emails, I mistakenly referred to the George C. Marshall Institute as the George C. Marshall Foundation. I have corrected the error, and apologize for the confusion. The George C. Marshall Institute is an organization active in the Manufactured Doubt campaign against human-caused global warming, while the George C. Marshall Foundation is a charitable organization celebrating the legacy of the great American general and Secretary of State, George C. Marshall.

Major storm brewing for the Gulf Coast
There's a major extratropical storm brewing over the northern Gulf of Mexico that could be as damaging as Tropical Storm Ida was, for the Gulf Coast from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. The storm is expected to hit Tuesday through Wednesday. A storm tide of 4 - 6 feet is forecast for the Florida Panhandle, 3 - 5 feet for the Alabama coast, and 3 - 4 feet for the New Orleans area. Consult the NOAA extratropical storm surge forecast page for forecasts of the storm surge from this event. I'll have a new post Tuesday and/or Wednesday to discuss this storm.

Jeff Masters

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1388. wayne0224
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 17:36 (GMT)
May get real wild here have to wait and see
Port Charlotte fl 12:30 pm
sunny
Temp 84
dew point 71
Humidity 70%
Wind s 17 gust 29
What are the chances of a severe outbreak here?
Member Since: 1.12.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
1387. AwakeInMaryland
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:30 (GMT)
1378. Chicklit, hope you can arrange for an alternate day or a conference call instead. In any case, take care out there.
Hope everyone knows that Red Cross & emergency management changed the advice for getting through a tornado...if there's no strong building available and you're in your car...DO NOT get out and lay in a ditch...Stay in your car, not touching anything metal.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1386. reedzone
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Sky is clearing up here in Palm Coast, FL. This is NOT GOOD. Expect major problems here later today. Conditions may in fact be ripe and a moderate risk will be needed if clearing continues.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1385. RTLSNK
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:26 (GMT)
NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG
Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19510
1384. AWeatherLover
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Stormsurge

Surge for St. Petersburg is already exceeding the forecast by a little less than a foot. Not good for tonight's high tide.
Member Since: 2.11.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 431
1383. StormChaser81
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting BobinTampa:
What are we in for in central Florida? I don't understand the talk of shear, would that help produce tornados? or just big winds?



It helps produce tornado by causing spin in the atmosphere, it helps them to get started.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1382. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Quoting CaneWarning:


It's a beautiful day in Tampa.


Bro this sun out now is not good! As peaceful and nice as it looks now....its going to shout later
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1381. AwakeInMaryland
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Good Morning Everyone! Looking forward to pics of snow in Texas. Nothing happening here. Our local news has gone stupid -- seems like all they can talk about is the couple who crashed the White House, hope their 15 mins. is crummy.

In other news(?)...O Canada! Should we have a category called Extreme Recycling?:


Going green? Why not rent a Christmas tree
AFP, This morning

OTTAWA (AFP) %u2013 Going "green" has never been so festive as in westernmost Canada where two start-ups are offering an eco-friendly Christmas tree rental service for the holiday period.

For about 100 dollars, Evergrow Christmas Trees and Carbonsync Christmas will drop off a potted tree at your home or business and pick it up three weeks later after all the presents have been opened and Santa has parked his sleigh.

Carbonsync plans to donate its trees to habitat restoration groups for replanting after Christmas, while Evergrow says it will return them to a nursery to be cared for until next Christmas when they may be rented out again.

Trees normally cost four times less on average, but are usually turned into mulch or sent to garbage dumps after the holidays in most North American cities.

"What (folks) are doing now is they're growing these hordes of trees everywhere in the Fraser Valley to ship to Vancouver," Brad Major of Carbonsync Christmas told public broadcaster CBC.

"These trees grow anywhere from six to 12 years to be used for one Christmas, and all these trees go to the landfill, and it's this huge pile of trees," he said. "It's like the biggest waste of a resource."

The firms' trees will also continue to draw CO2 from the atmosphere, doing their bit to help curb global warming instead of ending up as waste.

And if a family wishes, they may even rent the same tree year after year from Evergrow, as long as it has not grown too large to fit in their living room.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1380. CaneWarning
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Pennisula of Florida is in for a rocking today as the heating of the day causes even more instability......Gang this not good...VERY SEVERE WEATHER is coming....I have sunshine in Tampa now...we need cloud cover soon or there is going to be one heck of an explosion later


It's a beautiful day in Tampa.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1379. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:02 (GMT)
The collision line is currently in the Pennsicola area it appears
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1378. Chicklit
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:02 (GMT)
I'll be leaving for Sanford, Melbourne, then Titusville shortly. Don't want to get caught up in any of this late this afternoon!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
553 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. (Edited for Brevity; link to full discussion, including marine & wind forecast, below.)

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THE PARAMETERS THAT ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND TORNADIC STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA... IT APPEARS AS THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR VALUES...FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS INTENSITY AS TRAVELS EASTWARD AND REACHES EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTLINED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...OR FROM CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OR TORNADOES INCLUDES ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHILE THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AT THIS TIME THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET...BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS OR BANDS OF STORMS MAY FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE AROUND...OR A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET.
THE LINE WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND THEN PERHAPS WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR ACQUIRING ROTATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO.
...SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
$$
SEDLOCK
Link
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1377. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 14:00 (GMT)
The Pennisula of Florida is in for a rocking today as the heating of the day causes even more instability......Gang this not good...VERY SEVERE WEATHER is coming....I have sunshine in Tampa now...we need cloud cover soon or there is going to be one heck of an explosion later
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1375. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1374. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:56 (GMT)
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:


Wow, that is the clearest image (so to speak) I've seen of what happening, on a macro scale. Thanks!


Your welcome....things will be changing today very quickly as the Jet Stream appears to have dropped further south than models showed...its already near North Texas now...I'm saying one big Snow Storm is coming in the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could be devloping and move onto the EAST coast.....Its a double banger as another Low develops and rides the Southern Jet Stream.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1373. TheCaneWhisperer
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:55 (GMT)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
851 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BLAKELY...
NORTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 915 AM EST

* AT 850 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLAKELY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLAKELY BY 905 AM EST...
1372. GeoffreyWPB
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
1371. Orcasystems
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:54 (GMT)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1370. icmoore
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Good morning and thanks for all the info as always!

#1368
Yikes, say it ain't so LOL, that looks nasty indeed.
Member Since: 18.07.2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4141
1369. txag91met
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:50 (GMT)
snowing in Dallas.
Member Since: 30.01.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 746
1367. HurricaneKing
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:41 (GMT)
This has the potential to get ugly fast.

SPC AC 021243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST WED DEC 02 2009

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN AL/NRN FL
INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN VA...

...NERN GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OUT OF THE ERN GOM AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC AHEAD OF INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM
FORECAST. THIS AREA WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF COMPACT SYSTEM. IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING/HEATING CAN DEVELOP WITHIN MODEST WARM SECTOR EVOLVING
FROM NWRN FL/SRN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...THEN ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND LEWP STRUCTURES
WITHIN A BROKEN SQUALL LINE FORECAST TO ADVANCE ENEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. PERSISTENT QUESTIONS ABOUT INSTABILITY PRECLUDES MDT RISK
ATTM...BUT OUTLOOK COULD BE UPGRADED LATER TODAY.


12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE AREA OF COOL/STABLE CONTINENTAL
AIR REMAINED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL/NRN
GA...WITH MARINE/WARM FRONTS EXTENDING JUST OFF THE FL PANHANDLE AND
ERN CAROLINAS. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NWD
RECOVERY OF 60+F SFC DEW POINTS INTO MORE CENTRAL-SRN GA AND THE FL
PENINSULA...WITH GRADUAL INLAND RECOVERY OFF THE ATLANTIC EXPECTED
INTO ERN AND PART OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BROKEN SQUALL LINE
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER FAR SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AND
EVENTUALLY BUILD SEWD INTO CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON
QUALITY OF PRECEDING INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE BOTH WITH THE LINE AND WITH ANY
PRECEDING DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THREAT WILL RAMP-UP BY THE MID MORNING WITH ANY ENSUING
TORNADO POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE STRONG/DAMAGING GIVEN SFC-1 KM
SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 50
KT.
NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY.

THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO PARTS
OF ERN GA/SC AS MARINE AIR ADVANCES INLAND FROM INCREASING SSELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS...DESPITE PERSISTENT MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS AREA MAY EVOLVE SEPARATELY OR ALONG NRN FRINGE OF
BROKEN SQUALL LINE ADVANCING ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...BUT SHOULD ALSO
ADVANCE QUICKLY NEWD IN THE FORM OF FAST MOVING LINES AND/OR
SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA. GIVEN EXTREME
WIND FIELDS...WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. SHOULD AIR MASS RECOVER AS FORECAST...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS
THIS REGION.

...NRN AL TO ERN KY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN FARTHER S...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTS A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL.
Member Since: 6.07.2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
1364. TheCaneWhisperer
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:33 (GMT)
AT THE CURRENT TIME SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITHIN
THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
WATERSPOUTS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

JOHNSON
1363. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:32 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1362. SQUAWK
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:30 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.12.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
1361. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:30 (GMT)
Bingo just as i thought...this might be changing very quick to HEAVY winter stuff
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1360. TheCaneWhisperer
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:30 (GMT)
Quoting BobinTampa:
What are we in for in central Florida? I don't understand the talk of shear, would that help produce tornados? or just big winds?



553 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
1359. IKE
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:28 (GMT)
New Orleans...LONG TERM...
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERTAINS TO WINTRY
PRECIP. GFS HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW
THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF STILL HAS
NOT COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION BUT MODELS DO AGREE THAT A DEEP
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT BTR AND MCB SHOW SATURATION IN THE -10
TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS WELL AS COLUMN TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
FROM AROUND 1500KFT AND UPWARDS AFTER 06Z SAT. THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING
WOULD PRODUCE STRICTLY SNOW. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
-SN TO THE FORECAST FROM BTR TO POPLARVILLE AND NORTHWARD. LATEST
MEX CAME IN AT 70PCT AND PREVIOUS RUN HAD MID 40S. B/C OF SUCH A BIG
CHANGE...DECIDED TO STAY ON THE LOW SIDED OF GUIDANCE AT 40PCT WITH
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS EVENT. LAST YEAR/S SNOW ON DEC 11TH WAS THE EARLIEST ON
RECORD...SO CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW
DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.


Baton Rouge,LA. forecast...Friday Night: A chance of rain showers before 9pm, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1358. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:27 (GMT)
The way things have slowed and the dip in the NOrthern Jet from above..we might see a pretty large Snow storm starting to come together.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1357. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1356. TheCaneWhisperer
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:22 (GMT)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Surface winds are out of the SE, Winds aloft are out of the SW.

CASE 4: STRONG SPEED SHEAR, STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR

This situation can produce single-cell super-cells. This is the best situation in order to produce a rotating updraft. The speed shear enables the storm to move quickly and helps keep the updraft and downdraft separated while the directional shear helps rotate the updraft into the storm. These storms can produce large hail, strong tornadoes and heavy rain.



I'm not saying that is what CFL is in for, just explaining the shear.
1355. IKE
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:21 (GMT)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-021530-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
630 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

...POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON FRIDAY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR SO THAT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL POSSIBLY START AS RAIN BUT THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

THIS SCENARIO REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION AND HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST DATA AND MAKE
CHANGES AS NECESSARY. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND LOOK FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THE WINTER
WEATHER THREAT.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1354. TheCaneWhisperer
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Quoting BobinTampa:
What are we in for in central Florida? I don't understand the talk of shear, would that help produce tornados? or just big winds?



Surface winds are out of the SE, Winds aloft are out of the SW.

CASE 4: STRONG SPEED SHEAR, STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR

This situation can produce single-cell super-cells. This is the best situation in order to produce a rotating updraft. The speed shear enables the storm to move quickly and helps keep the updraft and downdraft separated while the directional shear helps rotate the updraft into the storm. These storms can produce large hail, strong tornadoes and heavy rain.
1353. BobinTampa
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:13 (GMT)
What are we in for in central Florida? I don't understand the talk of shear, would that help produce tornados? or just big winds?

Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
1352. TheCaneWhisperer
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
EEEK!

Yeah, those streamlines are nasty looking.
1351. IKE
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:08 (GMT)
TVS in southern Okaloosa county...near Fort Walton Beach....
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1350. TheCaneWhisperer
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:04 (GMT)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
'


Their talking about record heat today as well. This could prove to be a little stronger than anticipated for the peninsula.


High pressure at the surface in the central GOM is bringing up the SSE winds and the Heat
1349. TheCaneWhisperer
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 13:01 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Tampa has a SSE wind currently.........that is not good. Shear will be present!
'


Their talking about record heat today as well. This could prove to be a little stronger than anticipated for the peninsula.
1347. TampaSpin
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 12:55 (GMT)
Tampa has a SSE wind currently.........that is not good. Shear will be present!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1346. VTG
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 12:34 (GMT)
12/02/2009 0525 am

Pensacola, Escambia County.

Flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.

Flooding on Mobile Highway at Michigan.
Member Since: 15.08.2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 1737
1343. IKE
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 12:26 (GMT)
Tornado warning in Bay county will be canceled.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1342. IKE
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 12:25 (GMT)
Jason Kelley was the chief met at channel 7 in Panama City. He stepped down in October to go to work at WBRC...channel 6 in Birmingham,AL.

Found this from an article on his move....

"Kelley announced four weeks ago his intention to leave the station. His new position as staff meteorologist for WBRC will be more behind the scenes than he was in Panama City. Kelley will have more research projects, he said, but will be a lead forecaster on tropical weather.".....

Tropical weather in Birmingham? Huh? Their close to 300 miles inland. I know they get leftovers sometimes, but tropical weather in Birmingham?
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1341. VTG
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 12:23 (GMT)
There was incredible rain over Pensacola a few minutes ago. It looks like that storm is moving into Santa Rosa county now.
Member Since: 15.08.2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 1737
1340. Grothar
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 12:18 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Channel 7 Live Feed


Looks like somebody will get wet today. Mean looling trail on this one.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23710
1339. MissNadia
2. joulukuuta 2009 klo 12:18 (GMT)
Good Morning,
No Surfing on the" Carolina Coast" for a while!!!

Forecast as of 6:06 am EST on December 2, 2009
South Santee River South Carolina out to 20 nautical miles... a deepening low pressure system emerging from the Gulf of Mexico will bring hazardous seas and strong winds today and Thursday. High pressure will build in behind a cold front late Thursday into the weekend...but a coastal system offshore may affect the local waters late Friday into early Saturday.
Gale Warning in effect through Thursday morning
Forecast as of 6:06 am EST on December 2, 2009
Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm-
Today
Se winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt... becoming S 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft...building to 8 to 10 ft this afternoon. Rain. A chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight
SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft...subsiding to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Near shore...seas 6 to 8 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu
SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Near shore...seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning.
Thu Night
NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming N around 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri
NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Member Since: 27.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2868

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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