Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 00:16 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.


Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.

The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.

The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.


Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.




Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.

Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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800. 2COOL
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:23 (GMT)
Thanks Ike! I've been following your comments real close and some others. You are real appreciated, all of you! I've been continually following this forum for days, and I wonder how many others are in the background. We depend on this site. It gives us a close up and helps us through this. Thanks so much to all of you from us lurkers!
Member Since: 26.05.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
799. 2COOL
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:13 (GMT)
Long time lurker. Can't believe I picked that handle but I am in MN! Ha!
Planning to leave for Pensacola soon, my old home.
Member Since: 26.05.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
798. TampaSpin
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)


IDA has made her big right turn.....may not go over land for a while.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
797. IKE
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:07 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!!


Quoting 2COOL:
Anyone see any roof work out of this...or enough damage for ins. Adjusters? Thanks!


I doubt it.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
796. tropicofcancer
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
I must warn you people..... we are getting waaaaay to friendly and 'off topic' here.
I can feel dr no's blood pressure beginning to boil!!!.
Member Since: 19.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
795. catastropheadjuster
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:
Howdy!


Morning Storm
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
793. catastropheadjuster
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Quoting rareaire:
About to head to the dentist thought I'd stop in a check on everyone. Be back later on. Glad to hear your ok Sheri. Tampa iis it still on track to fullfill my forecast. Flood you know where we are if you need us. Ttyl


Thank you, you take care. Have a good day.

sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
791. NEwxguy
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


And to you and your family too.

Don't be a stranger in the off-season. Winter weather is as interesting as the tropics to me.

Yep,I couldn't agree more,and I think this year will be an interesting winter season.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15114
790. ALCoastGambler
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:55 (GMT)
Is to me as well but is sometimes my busy time for my buisness. And I have not found a good hidin' spot from my wife to get out of work.....lol
789. TampaSpin
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Well Ike we should count our blessings. It dang sure could have been worse


Yep, good thing this was not September. Could have been really bad....coulda woulda....tho
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
788. IKE
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:52 (GMT)
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
I agree Ike. And if I don't see you guys much before next season I want to take the time now to wish everyone a very Safe and Happy Holiday season


And to you and your family too.

Don't be a stranger in the off-season. Winter weather is as interesting as the tropics to me.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
787. CaicosRetiredSailor
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Surf's up

http://www.islandempress.com/webcam/

For scale, there are couple of people walking on the beach
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
785. TampaSpin
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:49 (GMT)


The 3 headed little devil.....
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
784. ALCoastGambler
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:49 (GMT)
I agree Ike. And if I don't see you guys much before next season I want to take the time now to wish everyone a very Safe and Happy Holiday season
783. rareaire
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:46 (GMT)
About to head to the dentist thought I'd stop in a check on everyone. Be back later on. Glad to hear your ok Sheri. Tampa iis it still on track to fullfill my forecast. Flood you know where we are if you need us. Ttyl
Member Since: 19.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
782. catastropheadjuster
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


I'm alright...certaily doing better than you and your hubby...glad to hear you guys are alright


Thanks yeah where just waiting for the water to start going down so we can start cleaning, hopefully we don't get sick with this cool air and getting wet. Just all part of the deal i guess.

Sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
781. homelesswanderer
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:44 (GMT)
Good morning all. Glad to see everyone back and no worse for the wear. :) Y'all flung a hungry on me with all that turkey talk. I LOVE
turkey! Only get it once a year though. :( And I have to hold the ham I cook hostage til the switch is made. Lol. Mom can cook the heck out of a turkey. The only thing I can cook is ham. So I have a little bargaining power. Hee hee.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
780. IKE
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Well Ike we should count our blessings. It dang sure could have been worse


Amen to that.

And I hope that is the final nail in the coffin for the gulf coast in 2009 for tropical systems.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
779. jipmg
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:41 (GMT)
IDA is no more according to the NHC..
778. Floodman
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:41 (GMT)
Quoting rareaire:
Morning all.


Howdy, rare...
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
777. Floodman
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:41 (GMT)
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Hey Flood, How ya doing?

Sheri


I'm alright...certaily doing better than you and your hubby...glad to hear you guys are alright
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
776. rareaire
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Morning all.
Member Since: 19.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1601
775. ALCoastGambler
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Well Ike we should count our blessings. It dang sure could have been worse
774. nrtiwlnvragn
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:38 (GMT)
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 3 PM CST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 30.6N 87.6W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 11/0000Z 30.9N 86.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 11/1200Z 30.7N 84.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 82.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED

Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10470
773. IKE
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:37 (GMT)
...IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
9:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 30.6°N 87.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
772. beell
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:37 (GMT)
At least a small warm sector should be available this early this afternoon across NE FL, coastal GA, and SC to take advantage of low level shear/helicity.

Basically two boundaries. The confluence zone extending S down the W coast of FL and a warm front which is really the northward moving moisture on the E side of Ida meeting up with the cooler, drier continental air moving south around the W side of Ida as the surface ridge builds in behind her. Marginal instability. But 30-40 knots of shear and adequate 0-3km helicity probably should be watched. SPC mentions the northern half of FL in their Day 1 Outlook.

Photobucket



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE NATION
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD...LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OFF THE BC/WA
CST. FARTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
EXTRATROPICAL AS REMNANT CIRCULATION PHASES WITH AMPLIFYING
DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM.

...NERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW T.S. IDA BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ABSORBED WITHIN COMPLEX OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOW PHASING
OVER THE LWR MS VLY. BAND OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SSW FROM IDA
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD LATER THIS MORNING
AS WLY COMPONENT TO MID LVL FLOW INCREASES WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE...LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER REGION.

THE CONVERGENCE BAND WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE NERN GULF AND PARTS OF NRN/WRN FL TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE
FEATURE GRADUALLY ASSUMES COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW LVL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE BAND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...
WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
DISCRETE AND/OR MOVE OFF THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
. BUT LOW LVL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO POSE
A THREAT FOR LOW LVL SHOWER/STORM ROTATION
...GIVEN AVAILABILITY OF
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIKELIHOOD FOR MODEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION
. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO...AND/OR A SPOT OR TWO OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. ANY SUCH
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG OR CLOSE TO THE FL CST...FROM THE
CSTL BEND AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...SSE TO THE TPA AREA BY EVE.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/10/2009
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15353
771. Orcasystems
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:37 (GMT)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
770. jipmg
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:34 (GMT)
We now officially have TD ida
769. TampaSpin
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:31 (GMT)
IDA missed her Point by NHC by about 75miles to the south of her next point..and is still half on land and half on water.

Still say the worst weather for the state of Flordia is yet to come today. Don't let your guards down too much...IDA has a mighty large butt, that appears to be getting larger...
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
768. catastropheadjuster
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:31 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


You must be an Aggie


Hey Flood, How ya doing?

Sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
767. MahFL
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:30 (GMT)
Jipmg, er thats an extratropical system for you.
I'ts like a normal low but with extra moisture.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2912
766. nrtiwlnvragn
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTHWARD DAYS 3 AND 4...A HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO FOR WINDS AND TIDES.


Short Range Graphics Loop


Preliminary Extended Forecast Graphics
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10470
765. catastropheadjuster
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:28 (GMT)
I was just looking out the window and the wind is blowing pretty nice. It just knocked the neighbors garbage can over in the road, I'm fixing to run out and put it on there porch. I really didn't think it would be this windy right know.

Sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
764. IKE
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Quoting mossyhead:
Hey Ike, just a lot of heavy showers last night. There are going to be a lot of upset people looking at the weather now. The counties officials can't win either way. If they do not cancel they get hollered at and if they do and nothing happens, they get hollered at.


Agree...suns coming out at times, here now.

70.7 degrees.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
763. jipmg
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:27 (GMT)
wth? Is IDA making a cold front? I mean there is a string of T storms forming and temps in the 60S behind it while in front they are in the upper 70s/low 80s
762. TampaSpin
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:26 (GMT)
I have a big problem with the steering flow maps .......wow are they inaccurate or what....could they have changed this much in 3 hrs ....i guess.....NO reason looking at them that IDA should be moving in that direction. Although looking at visible Water vapor one can see why

Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
761. Floodman
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting TexInsAgent:


I want a cooked longhorn for Thanks Giving


You must be an Aggie
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
760. FSUCOOPman
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Granted there is still the tail of the comma draped over the area that could cause some bad weather, but I'm suprised at how little the Tallahassee area got from Ida.

I wouldn't even call the rain we got moderate, and the wind barely shook the leaves on the trees.
Member Since: 29.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
759. jipmg
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting MahFL:
Looks to me Ida is moving just south of east atm.


surely moving East now..
757. MahFL
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:20 (GMT)
if she moves back over the water can she re energise ?
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2912
756. obsessedwweather
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:20 (GMT)
750. You probably will.....just not until later tonight and tomorrow..
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
755. TampaSpin
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:18 (GMT)
It looks like we have a triple eye......LOL
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
754. MahFL
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Looks to me Ida is moving just south of east atm.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2912
753. mossyhead
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Yeah...came out okay. Never lost electricity.
Hey Ike, just a lot of heavy showers last night. There are going to be a lot of upset people looking at the weather now. The counties officials can't win either way. If they do not cancel they get hollered at and if they do and nothing happens, they get hollered at.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
752. NEwxguy
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey my New Englander friend....YOU might be getting one heck of a snow storm from IDA


I have my doubts,High pressure is going to hang tough,and don't see any cold air the cards as of right now,but you keep on trying to get us a snowstorm.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15114
751. TampaSpin
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:16 (GMT)


I posted this on my update on 10-8 at 10:28am



At least it fell within my windwow....course my window was large enough...LOL
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
750. SpicyAngel1072
10. marraskuuta 2009 klo 14:12 (GMT)
I thought central FL would get some rain from IDA.....???
Member Since: 1.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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