Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8. marraskuuta 2009 klo 23:17 (GMT)

Share this Blog
1
+

Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.

The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.


Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.


Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Links to follow:

U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1891 - 1841

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

1891. STORMKILLER007
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 17:46 (GMT)

WELL LIKE I SAID LAST NIGHT---IDA--GOING--GOING
GOING--THEN LATER--WILL HIT SHORE AT ABOUT 43MPH MAX WINDS ARE NOT 70MPH---THEY ARE 47MPH
WITH GUSTS AT 53MPH ---GOING-GOING -GOING---
ALMOST GONE OIL RIGS ARE SAFE--PRICE OF GAS
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SAME AS IT WAS
GOD IS GREAT --(WINDS AS OF 12.41PM ET.)
1890. centralflaman
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 16:10 (GMT)
The TWC is about to interview the director of the NHC after the commercial break.
Member Since: 17.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
1889. CaneHunter031472
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:55 (GMT)
Ida = Poof Back to winter weather...
Member Since: 1.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 163
1888. ALCoastGambler
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:50 (GMT)
Ya'll take care. I'll be in and out. Got called it to fill the fuel tanks on the boat for the fire dept. So, as usual I loose a free night at the casino. But it is for a good reason. Good luck with the searches Sheri.
1887. ALCoastGambler
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:46 (GMT)
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Lord i need to let my daughter know that there opening a new Freds in Bayou La Batre they have been working 16hr days. Thanks for the info.

Sheri
Well that may change in the next track update. Just keep looking at it. You can search it by going to noaa.com and look at click on tracking IDA and click in tracking chart. I think it is every 3 hours
1886. catastropheadjuster
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:41 (GMT)
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Sheri, NWS is saying that by 6am tomorrow it will be a TS coming in at Bayou La Batre. I would suggest you go by that.


Lord i need to let my daughter know that there opening a new Freds in Bayou La Batre they have been working 16hr days. Thanks for the info.

Sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
1885. Grothar
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:40 (GMT)


I know all the conversation is on Ida, but anything on that blob NE of the islands? Probably just the normal November convection flaring. Just figured it could add some additional tropics discussion. I'm ready for the blasts. Go ahead.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23744
1884. catastropheadjuster
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:39 (GMT)
Quoting Floodman:


Right back at you


Hey Floodman, nice to see ya. Weird how people try to throw words at cha. You been on this site a long time and we all know what DrM rules of the road are.
What cha think about Ida? I was lurking last night for a while and never seen ya last night.

Sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
1883. ALCoastGambler
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:29 (GMT)
Sheri, NWS is saying that by 6am tomorrow it will be a TS coming in at Bayou La Batre. I would suggest you go by that.
1882. HurricaneKing
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:27 (GMT)
Quoting Detrina:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
636 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009


FORECAST CONFIDENCE ... REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW... AND IS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF:

1) TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET)...

2) A PAIR OF SPLIT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ALOFT (AND UPPER JETS) OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

3) ANOTHER UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

4) NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA... AND MOST NOTABLY

5) A *POSSIBLE * DIABATICALLY-INDUCED LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY ALONG AN INVERTED H85 FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF IDA. FAVOR A SOLUTION DEPICTED BY A BLEND OF THE 00Z/9TH GEM AND ECMWF FOR REASONS OUTLINED BELOW.

DESPITE INEVITABLE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THOSE FEATURES... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DOMINANT SIGNAL OF STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS -- FIRST FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN FROM A PHASING OF THIS JET WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PJ -- WITHIN A DEEP 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWAT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (AND LONGER DURATION BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND) ARE CONTINGENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT A LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY INDEED DEVELOPS UP THE SOUTHEAST US AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE INVERTED H85 FRONT. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOST/ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL PV TOWER (CIRCULATION) OF IDA ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST... WHICH TPC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS REFLECTED. THE MSLP WAVE THE MODELS HAVE LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH SOME (MAINLY THE GFS/GEM) HAVE BOMBED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...IS NOT IDA ACCORDING TO LOW LEVEL PV DIAGNOSTICS...AND INSTEAD A FUNCTION OF THE INTENSE LATENT HEATING FROM SIMULATED DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE (CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK).

IF ONE OF THESE LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALIES INDEED DEVELOPS...IT WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE H85 FRONT AND LEAD TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION (VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...MASS CONVERGENCE...FGEN...ETC.) IT WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH COULD THEN FEED BACK TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH SUTCLIFFE-PETTERSSEN "SELF-DEVELOPMENT"...AND LEAD TO THE INTENSE "PHASE-LOCKED"/OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE SHOWN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS (AND THE LONE 00Z/9TH GFS STILL DOES).

WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO IS PHYSICALLY PLAUSIBLE...IT IS DEEMED A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION... PARTICULARLY SINCE ONLY THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-PRONE GFS STILL CREATES THIS FANTASY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY SUCH FEATURE LIKELY WOULD NOT SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVER GA/SC AND SWAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD SUCH A WETTER SOLUTION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY TUESDAY.


Can I get a translator for this please? the short version would be just fine!

thx



Uhhh ok I'll give it a go. Most likely we (I say we since I'm in Raleigh) will get just some heavy rain from whats left of Ida but there is a chance that all of the energy from her convection meeting the front could spin up a fairly strong low off the Carolina coast which would bring in a lot more heavy rains and high winds. Right now they don't believe it will happen since the only models that shows it is prone to over develop storms. If it was to happen we wouldn't know it until it had already started forming which is late tonight or early tomorrow.
Member Since: 6.07.2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
1881. largeeyes
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:25 (GMT)
Chappelhill....that's hardly even English. My eyes crossed reading it.
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
1880. dibird
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:25 (GMT)
Quoting iluvjess:


No suprise there. It will get much worse during the next 20 hours or so.


Indeed!
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
1879. ElConando
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:24 (GMT)
New Blog!
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1878. CycloneOz
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:23 (GMT)
1st rainband coming ashore, Pensacola Beach, FL
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1877. nrtiwlnvragn
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:23 (GMT)
Ida GHCC visable loop since daylight
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10470
1876. beell
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:22 (GMT)
The hybrid is plain ole convection in advance of the next shortwave in-line to the west.
Digging towards the Big Bend of TX at this time.

The whole mess, including Ida will go with it spreading a large rain shield over the SE and TN Valley.

Not downplaying any weather associated with it but would have to strongly disagree on anything here that is a hybrid. Just an opinion.

RAMSDIS WV/IR
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15353
1875. iluvjess
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Quoting dibird:


West End of Dauphin Island already under water. Mandatory evacuation.


No suprise there. It will get much worse during the next 20 hours or so.
1874. Detrina
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:22 (GMT)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
636 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009


FORECAST CONFIDENCE ... REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW... AND IS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF:

1) TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET)...

2) A PAIR OF SPLIT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ALOFT (AND UPPER JETS) OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

3) ANOTHER UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

4) NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA... AND MOST NOTABLY

5) A *POSSIBLE * DIABATICALLY-INDUCED LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY ALONG AN INVERTED H85 FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF IDA. FAVOR A SOLUTION DEPICTED BY A BLEND OF THE 00Z/9TH GEM AND ECMWF FOR REASONS OUTLINED BELOW.

DESPITE INEVITABLE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THOSE FEATURES... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DOMINANT SIGNAL OF STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS -- FIRST FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN FROM A PHASING OF THIS JET WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PJ -- WITHIN A DEEP 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWAT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (AND LONGER DURATION BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND) ARE CONTINGENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT A LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY INDEED DEVELOPS UP THE SOUTHEAST US AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE INVERTED H85 FRONT. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOST/ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL PV TOWER (CIRCULATION) OF IDA ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST... WHICH TPC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS REFLECTED. THE MSLP WAVE THE MODELS HAVE LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH SOME (MAINLY THE GFS/GEM) HAVE BOMBED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...IS NOT IDA ACCORDING TO LOW LEVEL PV DIAGNOSTICS...AND INSTEAD A FUNCTION OF THE INTENSE LATENT HEATING FROM SIMULATED DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE (CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK).

IF ONE OF THESE LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALIES INDEED DEVELOPS...IT WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE H85 FRONT AND LEAD TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION (VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...MASS CONVERGENCE...FGEN...ETC.) IT WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH COULD THEN FEED BACK TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH SUTCLIFFE-PETTERSSEN "SELF-DEVELOPMENT"...AND LEAD TO THE INTENSE "PHASE-LOCKED"/OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE SHOWN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS (AND THE LONE 00Z/9TH GFS STILL DOES).

WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO IS PHYSICALLY PLAUSIBLE...IT IS DEEMED A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION... PARTICULARLY SINCE ONLY THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-PRONE GFS STILL CREATES THIS FANTASY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY SUCH FEATURE LIKELY WOULD NOT SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVER GA/SC AND SWAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD SUCH A WETTER SOLUTION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY TUESDAY.


Can I get a translator for this please? the short version would be just fine!

thx
Member Since: 3.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
1873. catastropheadjuster
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:22 (GMT)
So from reading alot of the post us here in Mobile really don't have much to worry about no more do we? I mean from what everyone saying it's falling apart and all. Is it just going to be just a rainy day?

Sheri
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3648
1872. Floodman
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Quoting DrNo:
#1820, #1829...

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the "!" button and ignored.


Right back at you
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1871. Cyberdium
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:21 (GMT)
PC Beach backyard webcam-one mile North of the Gulf(has microphone audio)
Link
1870. IKE
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Pressures still rising at most locations in the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1869. iluvjess
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Normal Tide will start coming in around 2:30 PM at Dauphin Island with the high at 3:09 AM. This does not fair well for the island or the delta and North Mobile Bay areas.
1868. dibird
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting iluvjess:
Daulphin Island and downtown Mobile are going to be under water.


West End of Dauphin Island already under water. Mandatory evacuation.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
1867. Chapelhill
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Quoting largeeyes:
Where does all of Ida's moisture go after tomorrow? It looks like the front is gonna bring a lot to us here in NC.


I found this interesting reading...not stuff you see everyday... It would be nice to get some good rain here!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
636 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009


FORECAST CONFIDENCE ... REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW... AND IS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF:

1) TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET)...

2) A PAIR OF SPLIT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ALOFT (AND UPPER JETS) OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

3) ANOTHER UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

4) NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA... AND MOST NOTABLY

5) A *POSSIBLE * DIABATICALLY-INDUCED LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY ALONG AN INVERTED H85 FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF IDA. FAVOR A SOLUTION DEPICTED BY A BLEND OF THE 00Z/9TH GEM AND ECMWF FOR REASONS OUTLINED BELOW.

DESPITE INEVITABLE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THOSE FEATURES... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DOMINANT SIGNAL OF STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS -- FIRST FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN FROM A PHASING OF THIS JET WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PJ -- WITHIN A DEEP 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWAT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (AND LONGER DURATION BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND) ARE CONTINGENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT A LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY INDEED DEVELOPS UP THE SOUTHEAST US AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE INVERTED H85 FRONT. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOST/ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL PV TOWER (CIRCULATION) OF IDA ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST... WHICH TPC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS REFLECTED. THE MSLP WAVE THE MODELS HAVE LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH SOME (MAINLY THE GFS/GEM) HAVE BOMBED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...IS NOT IDA ACCORDING TO LOW LEVEL PV DIAGNOSTICS...AND INSTEAD A FUNCTION OF THE INTENSE LATENT HEATING FROM SIMULATED DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE (CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK).

IF ONE OF THESE LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALIES INDEED DEVELOPS...IT WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE H85 FRONT AND LEAD TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION (VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...MASS CONVERGENCE...FGEN...ETC.) IT WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH COULD THEN FEED BACK TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH SUTCLIFFE-PETTERSSEN "SELF-DEVELOPMENT"...AND LEAD TO THE INTENSE "PHASE-LOCKED"/OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE SHOWN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS (AND THE LONE 00Z/9TH GFS STILL DOES).

WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO IS PHYSICALLY PLAUSIBLE...IT IS DEEMED A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION... PARTICULARLY SINCE ONLY THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-PRONE GFS STILL CREATES THIS FANTASY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY SUCH FEATURE LIKELY WOULD NOT SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVER GA/SC AND SWAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD SUCH A WETTER SOLUTION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY TUESDAY.
Member Since: 31.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
1866. iluvjess
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Daulphin Island and downtown Mobile are going to be under water.
1865. nrtiwlnvragn
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:15 (GMT)
Quoting stormsurge39:
I was close. A long way from pandandle as far as landfall goes.


Still have 2-3 more advisories before landfall, so it will change most likely.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10470
1864. hurricane23
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:15 (GMT)
Should continue to fall apart but TS winds should spread well inland with the broad windfield.

Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
1863. ElConando
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Looks like both systems are interacting much more now. Any chance at a merger?
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1862. FloridaTigers
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:13 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Dr Steve Lyons, retired Aggie prof in tropical met, now TWC expert. The only reason TWC has graced my TV in the last 10 years.


Agreed. Extremely knowledgeable, the only reason to ever put on TWC.
Member Since: 17.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
1861. atmoaggie
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
1854:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the "!" button and ignored.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1860. stormsurge39
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC 2009091500Z landfall

I was close. A long way from pandandle as far as landfall goes.
1859. ElConando
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
I just don't want any flooding at this point.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1858. iluvjess
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
First band of convection moving in already. It's about 20 miles S of here.
1857. GOLSUTIGERS
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
Ok, if the models hold true and loop around for another shot at the gulf, would it go nontropical?
Member Since: 25.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
1856. kanc2001
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:11 (GMT)
She's dumb
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181
1855. nrtiwlnvragn
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)
NHC 2009091500Z landfall forecast

Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10470
1853. largeeyes
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Where does all of Ida's moisture go after tomorrow? It looks like the front is gonna bring a lot to us here in NC.
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
1851. Orcasystems
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:06 (GMT)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1850. stormsurge39
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Last 3 day track on Ida has it going AL/MS line.
1849. PcolaDan
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

I thought they used Mobile's radar...

Looks functional.


Can use Mobile or Red Bay, which is down.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1848. atmoaggie
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Quoting gordydunnot:
Atmoaggie, Look out I agree with you 100% there are a handful of people on this blog who could sit down with Dr. Lyons and Dr. M and have a tropical weather discussion, I think you all know who you are. I could serve some cookies and milk at the meeting. But he is the only reason I ever watch along with Dr. Forbes. They also look the weather geek part. Although I believe Dr. Lyons is a surfer at heart.

He is from Hawaii...(or at the very least he got his BS, MS, PhD there)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1847. atmoaggie
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:


OK...that's the funniest post of the last 72 hours...and subtly done, too...

Yep. That was good and dry. There are some that prolly thought he was serious...
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1846. gordydunnot
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Atmoaggie, Look out I agree with you 100% there are a handful of people on this blog who could sit down with Dr. Lyons and Dr. M and have a tropical weather discussion, I think you all know who you are. I could serve some cookies and milk at the meeting. But he is the only reason I ever watch along with Dr. Forbes. They also look the weather geek part. Although I believe Dr. Lyons is a surfer at heart.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
1845. Orcasystems
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1844. twhcracker
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:01 (GMT)
so seems we have two basic schools of thought, 1. ida is kaput dont even worry
2. ida and hybrid system are merging to becoming an intense weather event.

all i want to know... is this gonna be terrible rainwise becase i cant get in and out of the road i live on if it gets real bad, and also, if wind is over 40 mph they shut down one of the bridges i have to cross to get to work. soooooo what do you guys think?
Member Since: 30.07.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1843. atmoaggie
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:01 (GMT)
A little colder cloud tops associated with our hybrid friend. (Which burns gas and has an electric motor.)

Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1842. presslord
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting DestinJeff:


this place also happens to have numerous residents with Tropical Forecasting Ants and other animals, as well as "film room" analysis of every frame of satellite

and don't forget we also have a better understanding of how a place can be "due" a landfalling system (something the NHC refuses to acknowledge). folks here also have vivid memory of every major landfalling hurricane since "the current active period began in 1995" and are able to formulate forecasts based on those memories.


OK...that's the funniest post of the last 72 hours...and subtly done, too...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1841. bjdsrq
9. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:00 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


I'm not sure what her problem is....just unnerving.


I think her and Roker are having a 'America's most annoying weather personality contest'.
Member Since: 26.07.2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428

Viewing: 1891 - 1841

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
45 °F
Selkeää