Western Caribbean disturbance 97L likely to become a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:39 (GMT)

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An area of low pressure with a surface circulation has developed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica. This disturbance, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days. Satellite loops clearly show that 97L has a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands have begun to develop. There is not very much heavy thunderstorm activity, though it is steadily increasing. An ASCAT pass from 10pm EST last night showed top winds of about 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

The disturbance is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 - 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range for the next five days over the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development over the next three days. The main limiting factor for development will be the slow movement of the 97L, which will allow it to stir up cold water from the depths, cooling surface SSTs.

The forecast for 97L
Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L's circulation, bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model; an alternate solution, provided by the GFS model, keeps the storm farther south, pushing it into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. With the storm just beginning to organize and steering currents weak, it is impossible to rate the likelihood of these scenarios. NHC is currently giving 97L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I rate 97L's chances at high (greater than 50%). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 97L on Wednesday afternoon.

Typhoon Mirinae kills at least 40 in Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae is no more, but has left in its wake serious flooding in the Philippines and Vietnam. Mirinae hit Vietnam yesterday as a Category 1 typhoon, dumping rains responsible for at least 40 deaths, with 11 people missing. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed at least sixteen people in the Philippines. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.

Jeff Masters

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1298. Stormchaser2007
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 16:25 (GMT)
Recon inbound.

Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1297. 850Realtor
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:51 (GMT)
Wow! Starting to look impressive from microwave. Bet recon finds Ida when they arrive. Maybe 55mph already??? Any thoughts?
Member Since: 14.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283
1296. DrNo
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:36 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


Don't listen to him, he was wrong way too many times this year.. "Oh Tacoman, you still have crow left over from weeks ago"..


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the "!" button and ignored.
1295. FLGatorCaneNut
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:26 (GMT)
I'll take a weak T.S. or Depression over South Florida to hopefully usher in cooler weather after... It's been way too dry and record heat the past 3 weeks......
Member Since: 26.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
1294. AwakeInMaryland
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:26 (GMT)
1293. Tampa, please re-post and ask question on new blog...I'm only one left here.

Got coffee now, see ya' over there!
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1293. TampaSpin
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:24 (GMT)



QuikScat still does not verify a surface low has developed....wonder if its working correctly!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1292. AwakeInMaryland
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:23 (GMT)
Quoting CycloneOz:
Are ya'll going to let us keep the new blog

That would be a negative, Captain. I'm just getting fresh coffee before I read. :-)

Nobody will see this...just goofing around.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1291. hydrus
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
Now who was saying the season was over?? :P
Got some crow for them..
Maybe its tacrowman...
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
1290. CycloneOz
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Are ya'll going to let us keep the new blog all to ourselves? :)
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1289. nrtiwlnvragn
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:18 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10473
1288. AwakeInMaryland
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:17 (GMT)
1250. leftovers 3:01 PM GMT on November 04, 2009
Quoting lawgrad:
Going to Playa del Carmen Sat-Tuesday. Will we be totally rained out by this thing? HELP me please decide if we should cancel!

between the td and invest moving towards el salvador it will be pretty rainy in that part of the world

I've checked 3 websites and all say Scattered Thunderstorms and/or cloudy.

Intellicast has nice interactive tools and overlays but I'm not yet adept at using them.

Good morning, all. I just got on a little while ago, and I'm trying not to butt in -- but can someone tell me if I actually saw the NHC circle on 97L go from red to orange? And if so, why?
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1287. 850Realtor
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Going to find my helmet!
Member Since: 14.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283
1286. reedzone
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:16 (GMT)
Quoting stormsurge39:
Hey Tacoman that is a bold statement about just being a rainmaker! I hope your right for everyone who is in the path! Me personally i think everyone in the area should keep their guard up until its becomes just a "rainmaker"!


Don't listen to him, he was wrong way too many times this year.. "Oh Tacoman, you still have crow left over from weeks ago"..
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1285. stormpetrol
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:15 (GMT)
wow, according the NHC graphic they are expecting TD11 to be a slow mover, not good!!!
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1284. reedzone
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:15 (GMT)
Now who was saying the season was over?? :P
Got some crow for them..
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1283. stormsurge39
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Quoting tacoman:
reed take a deep breath man ...this will be nothing more then a rainmaker 456 said it best it will hug the land and it will keep this thing in check...so reed try to get some sleep big guy...tacoman
Hey Tacoman that is a bold statement about just being a rainmaker! I hope your right for everyone who is in the path! Me personally i think everyone in the area should keep their guard up until its becomes just a "rainmaker"!
1282. 850Realtor
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:13 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:
Lol 12z NAM goes crazy...Could verify if it manages to avoid land.



Don't really know what I'm looking at...can't read the pressure in the center? What does it say?
Member Since: 14.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283
1281. WxLogic
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:
Lol 12z NAM goes crazy...Could verify if it manages to avoid land.



No doubt... hope the other models don't trend to something like that on their 12Z runs and expecting it to miss land.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1279. reedzone
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Lets not forget guys that there is an established Anticyclone over TD11 (Ida), if it keeps up with it, shear will never be a problem. Currently, land is the only problem for the storm.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1278. hurricanejunky
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the
name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.
Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.


National Hurricane Operations Plan


Very interesting. Thanks for the detailed info.
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1276. portcharlotte
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Quoting WxLogic:


I sure hope it helps increase moisture content in the SE to kick off some decent showers because it has been way too dry over here and we're now under water restrictions that started Nov.

1.


Same here..the drought is really bad...more serious than the storm right now
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
1275. hydrus
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


This is an eye opener

Season ends 30 November.
Sometimes it does not end on November 30. Officially yes-Realistically no. You already knew that.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
1274. stormsurge39
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
456 What if 96E crosses over? what kind of interaction could it have with 97L?
1273. CycloneOz
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
96E may wind up having alot influence on what happens to TD 11 this weekend.

Yeah, there's plenty of shear where both of these systems are modeled to track, but if 96E gets into the BOC / Gulf ahead of TD 11, all bets on the influence of shear patterns would be off.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1272. hurricane23
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Lol 12z NAM goes crazy...Could verify if it manages to avoid land.

Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
1271. hurricanejunky
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:07 (GMT)
Quoting CycloneOz:




...and there it is...

I am filled with awe at this
track. Very interesting!


Interesting...we'll have to see how it plays out. I guess that answers my previous question about how the models are trending...we welcome the moisture BIGTIME!!! Send on the rain!
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1270. Cavin Rawlins
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Quoting stormsurge39:
Are we looking at due N after 120 hours, or to soon to tell?


From the looks of it, yea.

Notice the storm stops going NW and turns towards the N at the end of the forecast track.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1269. WxLogic
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:
Shear to the north should increase...Hopefully some rain for the southeast.



I sure hope it helps increase moisture content in the SE to kick off some decent showers because it has been way too dry over here and we're now under water restrictions that started Nov. 1.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1268. CycloneOz
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I'm a little late, they already classified it. We'll keep an eye on it. Ready to intercept if necessary.

Hopefully we can get some good rains out of it. Haven't had a chance to look at latest model runs. Are the models still trending eastward?


Stand by...very interesting end-o-week ahead.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1267. stormsurge39
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
That track is worst case scenario

Are we looking at due N after 120 hours, or to soon to tell?
1266. Cavin Rawlins
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
NHC says there's a chance that TD11 may already be a Tropical Storm due to the recent burst of convection near the center.


This is an eye opener

Season ends 30 November.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1265. portcharlotte
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
1264. nrtiwlnvragn
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I thought they always named it based on current location, meaning it gets the Atlantic name regardless of any past naming or locations. Is this correct? Anyone?


The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the
name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.
Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.


National Hurricane Operations Plan
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10473
1263. caneswatch
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting WxLogic:


If that map holds true, it's entering the extremely warm waters of the Western Caribbean after it's done on land.
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1262. reedzone
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:04 (GMT)
NHC says there's a chance that TD11 may already be a Tropical Storm due to the recent burst of convection near the center.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1261. WxLogic
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:
NHC expecting TD11 (Ida) to emerge back into a Tropical Storm after crossing land, heck it may not even cross land, look at the cone..


It is possible as long as it either drifts more N than W and/or the COC reforms.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1260. hurricanejunky
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:04 (GMT)
Quoting CycloneOz:


Both of these systems will be classic, late season hookers into the FL peninsula, imo.

Interesting to see if they develop or not.

I'm prepared to leave for SF at a moments notice.


I'm a little late, they already classified it. We'll keep an eye on it. Ready to intercept if necessary.

Hopefully we can get some good rains out of it. Haven't had a chance to look at latest model runs. Are the models still trending eastward?
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1259. CycloneOz
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Quoting WxLogic:




...and there it is...

I am filled with awe at this track. Very interesting!
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1258. Cavin Rawlins
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
That track is worst case scenario

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1257. reedzone
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
NHC expecting TD11 (Ida) to emerge back into a Tropical Storm after crossing land, heck it may not even cross land, look at the cone..
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1256. hurricane23
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Shear to the north should increase...Hopefully some rain for the southeast.

Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
1255. WxLogic
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1254. portcharlotte
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 041457
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NOW BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A NEW
BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE DISTINGUISHED. TAFB/SAB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0...30 KT...AT 1200 UTC...AND THAT INTENSITY
WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THIS SYSTEM WERE ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM
DUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/7...THOUGH IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS TRULY REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE CENTER
REFORMATION THAT APPEARED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ON
THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SHOW THE
SYSTEM MOVING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH ONLY A NORTHWARD DRIFT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT...ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST
LEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GFDL...ONE OF THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE...MAKES THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM
MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL. THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 11.6N 82.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 11.9N 82.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 12.5N 83.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 13.0N 83.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 13.5N 84.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z 14.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1200Z 15.5N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 85.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
1253. caneswatch
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:


Canes, what time zone are you in?


Grothar, interested in coming back if TD 11 comes here?
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
1252. Cavin Rawlins
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:01 (GMT)
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT...ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST
LEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GFDL...ONE OF THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE...MAKES THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM
MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL. THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1251. hurricanejunky
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting CycloneOz:
INTERESTING QUESTIONS OF THE DAY.

1. 96E crosses CA and enters BOC, without being named. Should it develop into a named storm, would it be given an Atlantic name or Pacific name?

2. 96E develops quickly and is named with a Pacific name, but then crosses CA into BOC. Would it keep the Pacific name or be given a new Atlantic name?


I thought they always named it based on current location, meaning it gets the Atlantic name regardless of any past naming or locations. Is this correct? Anyone?
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1249. hydrus
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:01 (GMT)
< It gets an Atlantic name.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
1248. caneswatch
4. marraskuuta 2009 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting portcharlotte:
Don;t forget this map....


That map scares me (I live in South Florida).
Member Since: 8.10.2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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