The Atlantic is quiet; a remarkable flu map

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 24. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:28 (GMT)

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An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands associated with a surface trough of low pressure has become disorganized, thanks to the presence of a large amount of dry air. This disturbance will get absorbed by a cold front Sunday and is not a threat to develop. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled to fly into the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled. There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Flu season comes early
As you've probably heard, there's an H1N1 flu pandemic going on. Here in Michigan, flu hit big time this week, with absentee rates hitting 30% in many school districts. Wunderground has a flu map that we update each week (Figure 1), and it's a remarkable-looking one today. All but four states have gone red (widespread flu, the highest outbreak level). I doubt the flu map has looked like this since 1968, the last time a flu pandemic swept the globe. For those of you who've never visited our flu map page, a typical peak flu outbreak occurs in February or March, and at most twenty states are colored red.


Figure 1. It's safe to say that the U.S. is in the midst of a flu pandemic--just four states are not experiencing widespread outbreaks of flu.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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732. Grothar
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
NEW BLOG!


Ike, you have to be more specific, Your Ne blog, Dr. Master's new blog. We don't do well in the morning.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23687
731. Grothar
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

G'Morning! Okay, good, T-Dude still here after last night's indepth weather(?) discussions.
1 not banned, 2 not banned...
All chocolate donations gladly accepted.


I'm still here, too! Who said there might be something forming in the Gulf?
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23687
730. AwakeInMaryland
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL we had some in depth discussions last night on the blog xD

G'Morning! Okay, good, T-Dude still here after last night's indepth weather(?) discussions.
1 not banned, 2 not banned...
All chocolate donations gladly accepted.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
729. IKE
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:55 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
728. tornadodude
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting Marlinzfan:


Us too and they disappear as well. My wife and I swear to each other we aren't eating them, then those little orange crumbles give me away when I get some sugar from her and she sees them on my shirt LOL.


LOL we had some in depth discussions last night on the blog xD
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
727. Marlinzfan
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting PcolaDan:


Butterfingers for me


Us too and they disappear as well. My wife and I swear to each other we aren't eating them, then those little orange crumbles give me away when I get some sugar from her and she sees them on my shirt LOL.
726. TexInsAgent
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Hey Pearland...how about those Aggies
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
725. weathermanwannabe
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:29 (GMT)
Good Morning. Not sure if the season will be ending soon but the only areas with low sheer at the moment are off the east coast of Florida and over/near the Bahamas. Something to watch in terms of any frontal remnants later in the week once the strong shortwave passes through in a few days, but, the window of opportunity seems to be closing for the rest of the tropical atlantic.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8262
724. 2010hurricane
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Quoting JRRP:


CPW
Member Since: 8.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
723. pearlandaggie
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:27 (GMT)
722. the hurricane season of 2022 may be interesting as well! LOL...of course, none of us will have any clue until about April or May of that year :)
Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
722. 2010hurricane
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Quoting JRRP:


Next years hurricane season maybe intresting!!!
Member Since: 8.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
721. 850Realtor
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:06 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thats all the UKMET office supplies, there is no text with the message.


HPC has this:

THE MOST
ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE
LINE HAS WARRANTED A THREAT FOR FLOODING ACROSS EAST TEXAS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST.
EVENTUALLY THIS HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY. ONE
IMPLICATION OF THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST
ALONG WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY.


HPC Short Range Graphics


Thanks!
Member Since: 14.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283
720. Orcasystems
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:58 (GMT)
Me to!

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
719. nrtiwlnvragn
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:58 (GMT)
Quoting 850Realtor:
Do u have or where can I get other info on this?



Thats all the UKMET office supplies, there is no text with the message.


HPC has this:

THE MOST
ACTIVE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE
LINE HAS WARRANTED A THREAT FOR FLOODING ACROSS EAST TEXAS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST.
EVENTUALLY THIS HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY. ONE
IMPLICATION OF THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL SPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST
ALONG WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY.


HPC Short Range Graphics
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10458
718. 850Realtor
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:53 (GMT)
Do u have or where can I get other info on this?

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
UKMET office is forecasting a storm to form tonight in the GOM.


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.9N 95.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2009 25.9N 95.6W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2009 27.6N 92.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2009 28.8N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Member Since: 14.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283
717. Orcasystems
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:46 (GMT)


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
716. nrtiwlnvragn
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:29 (GMT)
UKMET office is forecasting a storm to form tonight in the GOM.


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.9N 95.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2009 25.9N 95.6W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2009 27.6N 92.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2009 28.8N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10458
715. pearlandaggie
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:02 (GMT)
first there was none, now there's too much! LOL

Member Since: 14.09.2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
714. Cavin Rawlins
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:32 (GMT)
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks, do you see any potential with the wave about 50W and 15N ?


no
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
713. stormsurge39
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:25 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


Since I have been tracking tropical cyclones -1998, this is the least amount of hurricanes for any El Nino year even lower than 1997 which was pretty much the strongest recent El Nino.

I was quite surprise with September activity considering that in 2006, all the storms - 4 that occurred that month were all hurricanes.

With 8 named storms, this is the least amount of storms I have ever tracked.

The El Nino of 1997 could easily explain the 8 storms that season had, it was a very strong El Nino.

But this El Nino was weak to moderate and very similar to 2006 in its development so the numbers this year should of reflected that year.

However, El Nino was not the only contributing negative factor. It happened to coincide with other negative factors such as synoptic and sub-Global scale sinking air.
Thanks, do you see any potential with the wave about 50W and 15N ?
712. Cavin Rawlins
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:18 (GMT)
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 How does this season compare to other seasons with only having 2 hurricanes in the Atlantic?


Since I have been tracking tropical cyclones -1998, this is the least amount of hurricanes for any El Nino year even lower than 1997 which was pretty much the strongest recent El Nino.

I was quite surprise with September activity considering that in 2006, all the storms - 4 that occurred that month were all hurricanes.

With 8 named storms, this is the least amount of storms I have ever tracked.

The El Nino of 1997 could easily explain the 8 storms that season had, it was a very strong El Nino.

But this El Nino was weak to moderate and very similar to 2006 in its development so the numbers this year should of reflected that year.

However, El Nino was not the only contributing negative factor. It happened to coincide with other negative factors such as synoptic and sub-Global scale sinking air.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
710. stormsurge39
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:11 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Blog Update

Tropical Cyclones: Physics, Energetics and Mechanics

Erika and Fred Revisted

456 How does this season compare to other seasons with only having 2 hurricanes in the Atlantic?
709. Cavin Rawlins
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:00 (GMT)
Quoting leftovers:
just like dr masters has said expect late season out of season storms as the earth warms have a good wk


I wonder how that will play out.

The main reason why there is a hurricane season is because of wind shear. SSTs in the Caribbean are above 26C all year round. So this global warming have to affect wind shear and the only correlation I know is warming of the Pacific to create shear over the ATL.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
707. Cavin Rawlins
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:31 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning, 456. R u still expecting another storm out of what's left of the season?


Expecting, not much

But look at this way. You don't expect certain things in life but they do happen.

Expect the unexpected but this is an El Nino year and the window of favorable MJO is now or never.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
706. stormpetrol
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:17 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
705. BahaHurican
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:14 (GMT)
Morning, 456. R u still expecting another storm out of what's left of the season?
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
704. Cavin Rawlins
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:07 (GMT)
Blog Update

Tropical Cyclones: Physics, Energetics and Mechanics

Erika and Fred Revisted

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
703. BahaHurican
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:02 (GMT)
While I'm not saying it's impossible for something to form later in November, I'm still thinking that if we are going to see another TC in the basin, it's likely to spin up this week. Nothing's looking likely so far with the current setup. Don't have time to run models right now to confirm, though.

I gotta run. You guys have a great day!
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
702. BahaHurican
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:59 (GMT)
Morning everybody. Getting ready to head out of here in a few.



Nothing about this suggests tropical action over the next few days....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
701. homelesswanderer
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:13 (GMT)
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS..
.INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...
ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
MARTIN...VERMILION AND VERNON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE AND TYLER.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO
7 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST FLOOD
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
JASPER AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREAS.

* THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS. PERSONS
LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
700. homelesswanderer
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 08:48 (GMT)
Flood Warning

Statement as of 9:27 PM CDT on October 25, 2009

The Flood Warning continues for
the Trinity River near Moss Bluff
* until the warning is cancelled.
* At 0830 PM Sunday the stage was 15.0 feet
* minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet
* forecast... the river will continue rising to near 15.5 feet by Saturday.


Flood observed forecast 6 PM
location stage stage day time Mon Tue Wed Thu

Trinity River
Moss Bluff 15 15.0 sun 08 PM 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3





Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 9:58 PM CDT on October 25, 2009

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from 7 am CDT Monday
through Monday evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of southeast Texas... including the following
counties... Austin... Brazoria... Brazos... Burleson... Chambers...
Colorado... Fort Bend... Galveston... Grimes... Harris... Houston...
Jackson... Liberty... Madison... Matagorda... Montgomery... Polk...
San Jacinto... Trinity... Walker... Waller... Washington and
Wharton.

* From 7 am CDT Monday through Monday evening

* excessive rainfall is expected from thunderstorms expected to
develop along an advancing cold front. This line of storms is
expected to impact southeast Texas beginning Monday morning and
persist throughout the day as the front moves slowly across the
region. Some thunderstorms may train over the same area adding
to the potential for heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall amounts
of 2 to 3 inches can be expected... with isolated totals of 4 to
7 inches possible. This will cause grounds to become quickly
saturated and lead to flooding especially where storms train
across the same area. The heavy rainfall may persist into Monday
evening behind the front and the watch may need to be extended.

* Runoff from any heavy rainfall across southeast Texas will
impact swollen rivers... streams and creeks. This may cause
additional rises in rivers and more river flooding.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means rapidly rising water or flooding is
possible within the watch area. If you are in the watch
area... check preparedness requirements... keep informed... and be
ready for quick action if flash flooding is observed or if a
warning is issued.







Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
699. homelesswanderer
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 08:36 (GMT)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED 832 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

WILL NEED TO ADDRESS HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO SE TEXAS BY LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ALERT
THE PUBLIC TO THE REMARKABLE CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THE POTENT AND RAPIDLY MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
WHICH WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENISIS OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
UP OFF THE TEXAS COAST ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD OF ACADIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED. WILL LET THE MIDS CREW FILL IN THE DETAILS WITH THE
NEXT MODEL RUN.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
698. homelesswanderer
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 08:29 (GMT)
Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 9:04 PM CDT on October 25, 2009

... A wet and stormy week expected for the Southland...

A dramatic shift in the weather pattern will bring heavy and
prolonged rains to southeast Texas beginning Monday afternoon.
This rain will cross the Sabine River into Louisiana Monday
evening. The culprit will be a combination of developing low
pressure off the Texas coast... deep moisture off the Gulf... and a
Pacific cold front driven by a strong jet stream.

After the first wave of rough weather moves through late Tuesday,
a deepening upper level trough will repeat the process over the
latter portion of the week. Potential rainfall for the upcoming
week could range anywhere from 5 to 10 inches. Considering areas
still draining from last week's rains, flooding is a possibility
over the upcoming week.

Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
697. Cavin Rawlins
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 08:09 (GMT)
I see the trough did move north

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
695. Orcasystems
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 05:57 (GMT)


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
694. Orcasystems
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 05:20 (GMT)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
693. GeoffreyWPB
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 05:07 (GMT)
Your one of a kind Matt! Nite
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
692. tornadodude
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 05:05 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think???


:( sad face. or smiley face :) (: see? haha
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
691. AwakeInMaryland
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 05:05 (GMT)
Quoting tornadodude:


nite Grothar, nite to everyone as well, I need some sleep, definitely enjoyed the humor tonight (:

G'nite, boyz. Hope to see you soon, sooner if we all don't get banned.
- Nana
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
690. GeoffreyWPB
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 05:04 (GMT)
I think???
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
689. GeoffreyWPB
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 05:04 (GMT)
Matt...a smiley face is :)...you have it as a sad face (:
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
688. tornadodude
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:59 (GMT)
Quoting Grothar:
Nite TD.


nite Grothar, nite to everyone as well, I need some sleep, definitely enjoyed the humor tonight (:
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
687. Grothar
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:59 (GMT)
Nite TD.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23687
686. Grothar
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:57 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nite Grothar...good to chat with you tonight.


Nite Geoffrey.
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23687
685. GeoffreyWPB
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:57 (GMT)
Nite Grothar...good to chat with you tonight.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
684. njdevil
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:56 (GMT)
according to weather.com, I am.

according to accuweather.com international, it's going to be 55 in saint maarten two Tuesdays from now, so I'm pretty sure I can disregard that forecast. lol
Member Since: 9.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 145
683. GeoffreyWPB
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:55 (GMT)
Good nite Nana
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
682. tornadodude
26. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:54 (GMT)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Yes, it was fever from the flu that made us whacky, so it's blog-related.
Good night, Grothar and buds.


Have a good one!
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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