Western Caribbean disturbance 94L organizing; Rick wanes; Lupit still dangerous

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 20. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:59 (GMT)

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A broad 1010 mb low pressure area has developed near 13N 81W in the Western Caribbean, about 300 miles east of the Nicaraguan coast. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and not even much of a shift in wind direction associated with the low. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which will aid development. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 94L has not increased in intensity or areal coverage much over the past 24 hours, but it has begun getting more organized, with some curved bands beginning to form, indicating that a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere may be starting to spin up. The disturbance will bring 3-day rain totals of 4 - 8 inches to eastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras through Thursday, as 94L moves slowly northwestward. As the storm organizes, it may begin to pull moisture from the Pacific across Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, resulting in flooding rains of 4 - 8 inches along the Pacific slopes of those countries Wednesday through Friday.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
The SHIPS model forecasts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. Most of the models foresee a path taking 94L very close to the coast of Nicaragua and then along the north coast of Honduras, and the storm may move inland over one of these countries before it has time to develop into a tropical depression. Due to proximity to land, I give 94L just a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization, Friday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Wednesday or Thursday. The ECMWF model foresees that 94L will move northwards next week across Cuba and threaten South Florida, but none of the other models are predicting this. It is too early to know if 94L will be a threat to more than just Central America.

Rick wanes
Tropical Storm Rick has faded from its glory as the second strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane of all time to a mere tropical storm, thank to continued moderate to high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots over the past 36 hours. The shear has managed to inject dry air that lies to the west of Rick directly into its core, which significantly disrupted the storm. With the shear expected to continue at 15 - 25 knots between now and landfall in mainland Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, it is unlikely that the storm will be able to take advantage of the warmer sea surface temperatures it will find along its path over the next 24 hours and re-intensify. It looks like the southern tip of Baja will miss the more severe right-front quadrant of the storm, and NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip just a 50% chance of receiving tropical-storm force winds of 39 mph or greater. The main threat from Rick will be heavy rains over the mountains of Mexico when Rick penetrates inland on Wednesday evening. South Texas can expect just 1 - 2 inches of rain from Rick's remains on Thursday and Friday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens, but still dangerous for the Philippines
Typhoon Lupit has weakened to a Category 2 storm with 95 mph winds, thanks to some dry air that wrapped into the typhoon's core over the past 24 hours, which disrupted the eyewall. It appears from satellite and microwave imagery that Lupit's eyewall is attempting to re-form now, as no more dry air is being sucked into the storm. Lupit is headed west towards a landfall Thursday on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply in the final 12 hours before landfall, and it would not be a surprise to see Lupit re-intensify into a major Category 3 storm before landfall.

The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of 12 inches (red colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Cool video
NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory has put together a 4-minute Flash video of the 2008 hurricane season. Infrared satellite imagery for each hour of each day during the 6-month season is looped, and it is fascinating to watch the daily build-up of thunderstorms progress from east to west across the country as each day waxes and wanes. Note that as we head into September this thunderstorm activity diminishes as the continent cools.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1148. hcubed
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:55 (GMT)
Quoting beell:
Anybody remember the large late-season gyre that sat over the Yucatan a couple of years ago?
With a surface low making cyclonic laps around the center of the gyre. Must have made two or three laps around the Yucatan. Kept waiting for it to consolidate/tighten up and catch a ride to the NE ahead of a cold front. Never happened.

It did spit out a series of mid-level vorts to the NE towards Cuba and FL with every lap. Each one watched very closely for development. Nada.

Just a wild thought for a "seed" next week.
The gyre itself consolidating and winding up or a surface low popping up along a prefrontal trough much more conventional.

A sleeping giant: 94L/October 2007


And in re-reading the history from that "sleeping giant", it was re-numbered (from 94L to 99L), and wound up as a low hitting the Tex/La border.

Didn't toss out anything serious. The only other storms after that were Noel (Oct 28), and Olga (Dec 11th).
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1147. hydrus
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting ElConando:


I knew this thing had to jump its had convection there for 2+ days.

This season really confuses me. I need an ice pack.
And I need a 6 pack...jk
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
1146. ElConando
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
A new low is froming near 12.5N 80W


Cue the "dun dun dun!!!!!!!" music.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1145. ElConando
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:43 (GMT)
1129. Hold on a tic, can whisperer, are you saying the MLC is very broad and is still in the Caribbean?
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1144. Patrap
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Be on the Lookout for a Red Wasp,Uptown NOLA,..the subject assaulted a wu-blogger (me) and was last seen flying North towards Magazine Street.

Be advised its armed and dangerous..

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125605
1143. nrtiwlnvragn
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:42 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
1142. TampaSpin
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:41 (GMT)
A new low is froming near 12.5N 80W
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1141. ElConando
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Ramsdis adjusted their floater....



I knew this thing had to jump its had convection there for 2+ days.

This season really confuses me. I need an ice pack.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1140. ElConando
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Steering is not conducive for development at this time I guess. Still 2-3 week window to watch for something to develop imo.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1139. IKE
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Ramsdis adjusted their floater....

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1138. ElConando
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Storm said he believes a low is developing just east of Nicaragua.
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1137. scottsvb
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:34 (GMT)
94L wasnt tagged too soon...it was a Yellow circle.. which means slight chance for development. All you really need is a Red circle to think something is about ready to form. NHC can put up 100 yellow circles a year and only 10% will make TD status.. Orange 25% Red 50% or if they do sometimes dissipate after become a TD cause of shear or whatever.

I usually ignore the yellows and even the oranges.. that is something new and just for the public. We like to NowCast and see whats going to develop really within 24hrs...but will look @ the models out to 120hrs.. anything more than 120 hrs is a Farmers Alnamac....its just "Pretty Maps" what some call them. Right now the ECMWF has totally droped off the development of something in the carribean. This may be true cause it had no support.. now the GFS has little if any support, but I do believe moisture will come up do the the troughiness over the U.S. in a week or so... will there be a system? Too early to tell. We may know by Friday into Saturday if something starts taking shape. Also the GOM is cooler down to under 80dg south of Sarasota out 100 miles..by time something (if anything does come North into the GOM next week) the 80dg mark will probably be down to the southern GOM south of 25N.. Shear from the westerlys, drier air(usually this time of year)and cooler ssts will probably make whatever is down there..more drier on the western side of a system once it enters the GOM.. Anyways these are the possibilities of things.. but of things that usually hold up
Member Since: 22.01.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1516
1136. TampaSpin
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:33 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:
Morning aggie...yeah...here it comes. Gettin into THOSE octants



StormW i believe this is the first true MJO uplift we have truly had since early June.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1132. Keys99
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:30 (GMT)
We should get Dr. M's take on all this shortly
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 132
1131. tornadodude
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS OCTOBER 21, 2009 ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EDT


howdy Storm
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
1130. ElConando
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:29 (GMT)
94l has been dropped :) this season gets better an d better. Best season in years!!!
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1129. TheCaneWhisperer
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Very broad low, unstacked, MLC in the EPAC giving the illusion it has moved.


1127. Cyberdium
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:25 (GMT)
From this morning's TLH discussion:

"Tropics watch...though we are quickly approaching the end of what
was a rather slow tropical season for landfalling storms...the 00z
GFS and 12z Euro show a tropical system entering the western
Carribean by late this weekend. The models are not in total
agreement with what to do with it once it exits the Carribean. The
Euro is a bit more aggressive as it advances the tropical system
into the Gulf and along the West Coast of Florida by middle week while
the GFS is a bit slower on the movement of the system with it
gradually moving northwest into the Gulf through middle week.
Regardless...it is something to keep our eye on."


1126. SouthALWX
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


well based on what has happened the last 24 hours, maybe 94L was tagged too soon

Nah not tagged to soon but 94l was simply never likely to develop.. around 10% I'd guess and that's worthy of invest but with no model support this early I don't think many people expected this particular COC to develop but rather that the disturbed weather had a good chance as a whole in the next 5-10days.
Member Since: 27.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
1125. TampaSpin
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


well based on what has happened the last 24 hours, maybe 94L was tagged too soon


Remember the bashing you and many was giving me for saying that....Its ok....i don't take things too heart often....LOL
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1124. tornadodude
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:22 (GMT)
hey all,

um, I think it definitely looks like 94L is Pacific bound, maybe another Rick scenario? (not necessarily strength, etc, just maybe another storm from an Atl wave)
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
1123. TampaSpin
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting scottsvb:
If something is to form..it would be south of Jamaica in a couple days Fri/Sat... not the midlevel low that peeps been watching into C America over the past few days. I usually wait till something develops before I say anything...and again.. its a wait and see.


Scott i'm with ya...
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1122. BurnedAfterPosting
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
94L has been dropped....as i expected...only 93L is out there now...guess many will be disappointed with there forecast.


well based on what has happened the last 24 hours, maybe 94L was tagged too soon
1121. BurnedAfterPosting
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:19 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
I new low may be trying to form near 12N 80W....not sure they would label that 94L or rename if something new was to develop i would guess it would stay the same 94L


yea that is my thinking, for anyone who thinks this is all over with, well no it is not. Several models have forecast the possibility of a new low forming and that is what develops

Remember the GFDL from yesterday? Moved the current low inland and dissipated it than formed a new low and strengthened that
1120. TampaSpin
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:19 (GMT)
94L has been dropped....as i expected...only 93L is out there now...guess many will be disappointed with there forecast.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1119. scottsvb
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:18 (GMT)
If something is to form..it would be south of Jamaica in a couple days Fri/Sat... not the midlevel low that peeps been watching into C America over the past few days. I usually wait till something develops before I say anything...and again.. its a wait and see.
Member Since: 22.01.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1516
1118. Grothar
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
I new low may be trying to form near 12N 80W....not sure they would label that 94L or rename if something new was to develop i would guess it would stay the same 94L


You see that too, TampaSpin?
Member Since: 17.07.2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23723
1117. TampaSpin
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:15 (GMT)
I new low may be trying to form near 12N 80W....not sure they would label that 94L or rename if something new was to develop i would guess it would stay the same 94L
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1116. hurricane23
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Pronounced rotation looks to be centered across the epac. You can view it here via ramsdis central america floater.

Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
1115. atmoaggie
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening one and all.
Looking at the bottom sat image, Looks like 94L is now in the EPAC.

Good evening. Ma nature pulling a bait and switch on us over here, I think.

With the MJO status, going to start checking out the status of waves following 94L. 94L not a Caribbean/GoM threat any longer, IMO.

Another step in our direction, not forecasted one day in advance...
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1114. hurricane23
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:07 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
1112. stormpetrol
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:06 (GMT)
94L imo will eventually become a Caribbean storm, it may split with one area in the EPAC & one in the W caribbean, but imo no one in the W & NW caribbean, including the Bahamas should write off 94L, JMO
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1111. ackee
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:03 (GMT)
with all said 94L is dead condition are just not right this year el nino year seasons is over know most of us like myself want something to track but guess try 2010 bye
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341
1110. AussieStorm
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:01 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Just a Quik flyby...

Well, any surface center would have to be on land given this (assuming QS isn't offsetting the center to the SW, which is possible):


(Full size, click)


And of those 20 and 30 knot (RAIN FLAGGED) barbs on the QuikScat, nothing close on the surface obs. No more than 10 knots anywhere near...


(Full size, click)


L8R.

Good Evening one and all.
Looking at the bottom sat image, Looks like 94L is now in the EPAC.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
1109. IKE
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:00 (GMT)
94L dropped on WU tropical page.

Maybe a glitch.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1108. WxLogic
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:55 (GMT)
From NWS - MLB Disc:

SUN-TUE...ECM/GFS BOTH DEPICT LCL PATTERN ALOFT BACKING FROM A
FLAT/ZONAL WSW FLOW TO A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL (SW/SSW) AS WRN
ATLC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS COULD OPEN THE GATES FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO LIFT NWD OUT OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN TWD FL...THEREBY
INCREASING RAIN CHCS. TOO EARLY TO SERIOUSLY DISCUSS/CONSIDER
WHETHER OR NOT A COHERENT SYSTEM OF ANY SORT MIGHT DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME AND ASCD INCONSISTENCIES
ABOUND...SO HAVE CONSERVATIVELY NUDGED POPS UP TO 30% FOR MON/TUE
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WILL LKLY SEE ADDITIONAL CHGS TO THE
GRIDDED/TXT FCSTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1107. atmoaggie
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:54 (GMT)
Just a Quik flyby...

Well, any surface center would have to be on land given this (assuming QS isn't offsetting the center to the SW, which is possible):


(Full size, click)


And of those 20 and 30 knot (RAIN FLAGGED) barbs on the QuikScat, nothing close on the surface obs. No more than 10 knots anywhere near...


(Full size, click)


L8R.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1106. IKE
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Yellow circle on 94L should be removed and await a new one in a few days if needed!


Or put on the eastern Pacific side.

Looks to be near 10.5N and just east of 86W.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1105. TampaSpin
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Firing up nicely in the eastern Pacific. Why am I not surprised? 94L is smart...knows there's an El Nino in the Atlantic and switches basins.


Got some good Alcohol and other spirits to make he/she happy there also.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1104. IKE
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:


Plus the Sunsets are incredible there this time of year as well.


LOL.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1103. Patrap
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Firing up nicely in the eastern Pacific. Why am I not surprised? 94L is smart...knows there's an El Nino in the Atlantic and switches basins.


Plus the Sunsets are incredible there this time of year as well.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125605
1102. TampaSpin
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:49 (GMT)
The Yellow circle on 94L should be removed and await a new one in a few days if needed!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1101. IKE
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Firing up nicely in the eastern Pacific. Why am I not surprised? 94L is smart...knows there's an El Nino in the Atlantic and switches basins.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1100. hurricane23
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Nothing has been run since 12z yesterday, ECMWF/GFS really dont do much with this feature.

Looks like an increase in moisture for the southeast in a few days.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
1099. TampaSpin
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:44 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Morning Ike,..I believe a Basin Change would cause a Invest Number switch.


Can we debate that....LOL....Pat J/K
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1098. beell
21. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:44 (GMT)
Anybody remember the large late-season gyre that sat over the Yucatan a couple of years ago?
With a surface low making cyclonic laps around the center of the gyre. Must have made two or three laps around the Yucatan. Kept waiting for it to consolidate/tighten up and catch a ride to the NE ahead of a cold front. Never happened.

It did spit out a series of mid-level vorts to the NE towards Cuba and FL with every lap. Each one watched very closely for development. Nada.

Just a wild thought for a "seed" next week.
The gyre itself consolidating and winding up or a surface low popping up along a prefrontal trough much more conventional.

A sleeping giant: 94L/October 2007
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15315

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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