Thirsty California soaks up Melor's Deluge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:44 (GMT)

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The remains of Super Typhoon Melor dumped record-breaking amounts of rain over California over the past 24 hours, but the storm is now departing the state without having caused major damage. Mining Ridge in Monterey County had an extraordinary 21.34" of rain, and several locations in Santa Cruz, Monterey, and Santa Clara counties had over 10" of precipitation. Downtown San Francisco recorded 2.49 inches of rain, which is the greatest 24 hour rainfall for the month of October (records have been kept since 1849). Monterey also set a record for the greatest October rainfall, 2.66". Strong winds accompanied the storm, with the Twin Peaks in San Francisco recording a hurricane-force gust of 75 mph, Angel Island, 77 mph, and Los Gatos in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 87 mph. Sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force were experienced at several locations along the coast. The Point Reyes Lighthouse experienced sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph, at the peak of the storm. The Sierra Mountains probably experienced hurricane-force wind gusts, and received several feet of snow. California was lucky this storm came early in their rainy season, since the ground was dry from a year-long drought and the soils were able to absorb a great deal of the rain. Melor's Deluge in California will be a great boon for the state, helping it to overcome one of the most severe droughts in the past 50 years.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for Melor's Deluge.

Tropical Storm Patricia dies
Tropical Storm Patricia is no more. The storm died out as it approached Mexico's Baja Peninsula, and caused no major flooding or wind damage.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Listen live at 10:10 am EDT to my Hurricane Hugo lecture
I'm subbing today for Professor Perry Samson's Extreme Weather course at the University of Michigan. He's set up a system where one can listen to the lecture and see the slides of the presenter live (though not the pretty faces). Between 10:10 - 11:00 am EDT today, I'll be presenting a talk, "Hurricane Hugo: the Hurricane Hunters' wildest ride" to the Extreme Weather class, and you're all welcome to tune in. Simply point your browser to http://samson.lecturetools.org and click the "Low Speed Video Stream" button. There is also a "high speed" button, but I'm not sure the network will be able to bear the load if there are a lot of folks tuning in. The lecture will also be recorded for those wanting to view it later.

I haven't heard yet how yesterday's Senate vote on NOAA funding went, the Senate web site indicates that they are still not done debating the bill.

I'll post my rest-of-hurricane-season outlook on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Storm's Comin' (louloubird)
Storm's Comin'
October Rain (travelingrose)
October Rain

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471. toddjblair
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Melor's Deluge in California will be a great boon for the state, helping it to overcome one of the most severe droughts in the past 50 years.

Not likely, since we depend on norther Sierra snowpack for much of our water.
470. IKE
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:21 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
469. sullivanweather
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Nor'easter to deliver unusually early snowfall


A sprawling dome of surface high pressure currently bridges south-central Canada and the northern Great Lakes region with the eastern periphery nosing into the Northeastern United States, responsible for the very chilly air entrenched over the northern third of the US at present. Meanwhile, a series of Pacific disturbances carrying the remnants of once Super Typhoon Melor are riding a fast (120-140kts) zonal jet stream centered near 40°N across the country. As this energy reaches the East Coast a northern stream shortwave will begin to sharpen a trough over the Eastern US causing low pressure to deepen while moving up the coast. This will spread a variety of precipitation types across the Northeastern US, along with wind and coastal flooding. Across the interior elevated terrain, there may be some hefty early-season snowfall accumulations. Then, not to be outdone, the northern stream shortwave which causes the buckling of the jet will form its own coastal low pressure as it crosses the Appalachians. This will continue the unsettled weather along the coast as a second area of low pressure forms and sticks around through the weekend.


Remainder of forecast here
Member Since: 8.03.2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
468. Orcasystems
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:08 (GMT)


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
467. sflweatherguy
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:06 (GMT)
Don't the waters in the pacific cool like in the atlantic when you have so many storms in the same area? Or is the warm water much deeper then in the atlantic?
Member Since: 16.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
466. nrtiwlnvragn
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:04 (GMT)
New invest in the East Pacific

EP 93 2009101512 BEST 0 108N 954W 25 1008 DB
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
463. presslord
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:10 (GMT)
btw...we have a Portlight conference call tonight at 7:30P EST...call in # and participant code are on the Portlight blog...

Everyone is welcome...please join us...and...if we have a good turn out...I promise not to put on another dress for Halloween...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
462. MissNadia
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:07 (GMT)
Doing fine, thanks.
Member Since: 27.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2872
461. presslord
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:06 (GMT)
Quoting MissNadia:
Morning Press
You will have to excuse me... didn't realize there was another "Carolina" LOL



Hey! That's my line!!!!

How ha ya?
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
460. MissNadia
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:05 (GMT)
Morning Press
You will have to excuse me... didn't realize there was another "Carolina" LOL

Member Since: 27.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2872
459. presslord
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:58 (GMT)
Quoting MissNadia:
Good Morning from the cloudy Carolina Coast!

We have Sea Fog on the I.C.W. this morning..... don't see that often here!!!!


OK pal...I'm on the ICW on the 'Carolina coast" too...and we don't have sea fog...Do you by any chance mean the North Carolina coast?!?!
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
458. IKE
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:54 (GMT)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

.AVIATION...
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH METROPLEX ATTM...







TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
457. MissNadia
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:52 (GMT)
Good Morning from the cloudy Carolina Coast!

We have Sea Smoke on the I.C.W. this morning..... don't see that often here!!!!
Member Since: 27.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2872
456. wunderkidcayman
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:49 (GMT)
good morning guys what is that blowup of convection in between haiti jamaica and cuba what ever it is it in low wind shear 5-10 kt
and a very weak vort





and se cuba radar also has jam cayman and haiti



Link
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9591
454. RTLSNK
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:06 (GMT)
56.7*F in Macon, Georgia this morning
Overcast sky, 99% Humidity, 2.27 inches of rain yesterday.

Flood Warning
Statement as of 9:08 PM EDT on October 14, 2009


... Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for the Ocmulgee River near Macon
* until Friday evening.
* At 8pm Wednesday the river stage was 20.4 feet and steady.
* Minor flooding is occurring... and is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will begin to fall early Thursday morning... dropping
below flood stage by early afternoon Friday.
* At 20 feet... minor flooding continues with a large portion of the
Macon Greenway Ocmulgee heritage trail flooded north of the fifth
street bridge as both banks overflow upstream from the fifth street
bridge. Minor agricultural flooding occurs further downstream
from the fifth street bridge.


Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19517
453. KoritheMan
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:00 (GMT)
Quoting leftovers:
sounds like ts 22 does not want luzon to come up for air. wondering if a part of the usa will get it bad within the next couple yrs like luzon has so far this yr


Interestingly, next year's naming list for the Atlantic basin is the same one that was used during 2004, sans Colin, Fiona, Igor, and Julia, which replaced Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, respectively.

We all know what happened during that year; strong ridging along the southeastern United States and adjacent western Atlantic contributed to two hurricanes striking Florida from the east (Frances and Jeanne), as well as one striking it from the west (Ivan).

Charley appears to be the only hurricane that year that was not affected by ridging. On the contrary, Charley's path was dictated by troughing.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
452. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:42 (GMT)
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

In sea just east of The Philippines at this time of the forecast outlook


JTWC oulook for TS Lupit (Ramil).. =(
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43682
450. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:28 (GMT)
Typhoon 2000 - (Using JTWC numbering system)

Tropical Storm 22W (UNNAMED) continued its fast-westerly track towards the Philippine Sea...just passed south of Guam...likely to become a dangerous tropical cyclone early next week.

22W is expected to start turning more to the WNW and slowing down w/in the next 24 to 36 hours upon approaching the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 22W entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Saturday morning Oct 17 as a Category 1 Typhoon w/ winds of 120 kph...and shall turn back to its westerly track towards Eastern Luzon on Sunday Oct 18. 22W shall rapidly grow into a Category 3 Typhoon on Tuesday Oct 20 in a track that could bring it to Northern Luzon on Wednesday or Thursday

The next local name for the Philippines is "Ramil"
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43682
449. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:26 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "24"
15:00 PM JST October 15 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.8N 142.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 24 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.3N 136.1E - 40 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43682
448. KoritheMan
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:17 (GMT)
TS22 moving west at 29 mph; that's one hell of an easterly flow.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
447. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:13 (GMT)
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER NEPARTAK (T0919)
39.0ºN 175.0ºE - 998 hPa

Subject: Developing Low In Sea South Of Aleutians
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43682
445. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 06:22 (GMT)
984
TCNA21 RJTD 150600
CCAA 15060 47644 NAMELESS 24118 11421 14134 215// 92831=

6:00 AM UTC October 15 2009

Tropical Depression 24
11.8N 142.1E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

--
moving away from Marianas region
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43682
444. xcool
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 06:18 (GMT)
bye all
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
443. xcool
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 06:13 (GMT)



Overnight: Areas of dense fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Calm wind.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Areas of dense fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 66. North wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind around 15 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 66.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 70.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 76.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.

Tuesday: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Tuesday Night: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
442. tornadodude
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 06:04 (GMT)
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
441. tornadodude
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 06:01 (GMT)
Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

...SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS A SMALL AREA WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY FROM WESTERN
BARNES COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORT RANSOM AND FORMAN AREAS...WHERE
UP TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY. SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY MORNING.

Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
440. tornadodude
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 05:24 (GMT)
howdy
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
439. JRRP
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:32 (GMT)
oct

sep

i am out
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5084
438. winter123
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:28 (GMT)
since everyone else is doing it...
geez... it's not even the middle of october...


Right Now for
Utica, NY
Save Location [ English | Metric ]


Weather for your life


Mostly Cloudy
31°F
Feels Like
31°F
Updated Oct 15 12:05 a.m. ET
Utica Live Webcams

UV Index: 0 Low
Wind: CALM
Humidity: 75%
Pressure: 30.21 in.
Dew Point: 25°F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Member Since: 29.07.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
437. Inyo
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:27 (GMT)
yeah, I left California a few months ago and am in Vermont where we are getting early season snow flurries rather than ran. However, it has been very dry, and it is amazing that a storm with 10 inches of rain in many places caused almost no flooding. It really is all soaking into the ground and will be a very good thing for every living thing in the state. Hopefully the winter is full of rain for my home state.
Member Since: 3.09.2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 867
436. hcubed
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:27 (GMT)
Quoting AtlantaMET:


You are always talking about tropics boring, tropics this and that and when anybody says anything you state it's your opinion. Well I deserve to be treated just the way you want to be treated.


Absolutely agree with you! You can be put on ignore just like anyone else...
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
435. GTcooliebai
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:11 (GMT)
cannabilize whoa that's very extreme, next thing you know they set fires. I was watching a clip earlier on ESPN when they had the earthquake in '89 and the Giants were in the World Series, just imagine it shook that whole stadium fortunately none of the concrete structure fell on those fans.
Member Since: 31.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
434. GTcooliebai
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:07 (GMT)
Oh no I just asked because I have a lot of relatives from Guyana that live there and I used to spend my summers there when I was younger. Wish I could escape the sweltering heat in FL, I love the cold, experienced it for a yr in PA when I went to Penn State.
Member Since: 31.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
433. Skyepony (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 04:04 (GMT)
Conan O'Brien just did a side splitting skit about people reacting to the rain in CA..national guard, flood rescues, looting, cannibalize..guess it's been a really harsh drought.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
432. Orcasystems
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:59 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and we all live in one big igloo together


You have igloos.. we live in Longhouses :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
431. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:58 (GMT)
and we all live in one big igloo together
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
430. Orcasystems
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:56 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
muslim
chinese
blacks
as well
we are all different yet the same


Same here... hard for some people to understand.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
429. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:54 (GMT)
muslim
chinese
blacks
as well
we are all different yet the same
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
428. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:51 (GMT)
yes
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
427. GTcooliebai
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:48 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when i post it in c i get emails asking me if i'm in the north pole i say ya i also live in a igloo too and eat yak burgers



Hey Keeper are there a lot of Sri Lankans and Guyanese by u there?
Member Since: 31.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
426. JRRP
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:47 (GMT)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5084
425. Orcasystems
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:45 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Dude, we had a solid week where temps were never below about 76F. The time of day was only relevant in deciding if it was going to hot with or without a sun behind the clouds.

And it is close to 11 pm, I am in the same time zone as Saskatoon and Winnipeg.


I am planning one... and maybe two trips to Mexico this year... one in Nov and again in Jan... that is the only place I expect to see temps like that.

Thought of Florida... but apparently you can't get there from here... not easily anyway.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
424. melwerle
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:43 (GMT)
Vs. This:

Berwick Plantation - Stonebridge Subdivision, Savannah, Georgia (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
64.9 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 97%
Dew Point: 64 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.87 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 400 ft
(Above Ground Level

Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
423. Sheafe
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:43 (GMT)
I don't come here much... being only a "lowly" subscriber to the Underground.... but, when I do..
it's always an eye-opener to someone who doesn't
really understand anything about "weather" and the
forecasting thereof. (Only when I was being tested as an applicant for a pilot's license, did
I begin to touch the outside reaches of the specialty of those who predict for us, the coming
weather.) I passed.... but wasn't competent.

Saludos
Member Since: 5.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
422. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:41 (GMT)
when i post it in c i get emails asking me if i'm in the north pole i say ya i also live in a igloo too and eat yak burgers

Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
421. melwerle
15. lokakuuta 2009 klo 03:41 (GMT)
Current Conditions


Bonita Highlands, Bonita, California (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
68.4 F
Clear
Humidity: 59%
Dew Point: 54 F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Wind Gust: 3.1 mph
Pressure: 29.74 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 100 ft

Perfect weather..so glad to be home.
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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