Typhoon Melor's remnants pound California; Tropical Storm Patricia nears Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:27 (GMT)

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The remains of Super Typhoon Melor, which hit Japan last week, have arrived in Northern California. Tropical storm force winds of 44 mph, gusting to 58 mph, were recorded at 6 am PDT at the Point Reyes Lighthouse north of San Francisco, and tropical storm-force winds have been recorded at several other locations off the Northern California coast. Heavy rains have moved into the northern half of the state, with over an inch recorded north of the Golden Gate Bridge in Marin County. Check the blogs of our San Francisco-based meteorologists Dr. Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner for updates today, in what promises to be a wild weather day for Northern California. The Sierras are expecting several feet of snow and wind gusts of 120 mph late today. You can follow the storm today using our interactive wundermap for coastal California or the Sierras.


Figure 1. Latest radar-estimated precipitation for the San Francisco region.

Tropical Storm Patricia headed towards Baja
Tropical Storm Patricia is headed for Mexico's Baja Peninsula, but appears to be weakening. Latest satellite loops of Patricia show that the intensity and areal coverage of the storm's heavy thunderstorms has decreased in recent hours, and moderate wind shear of 10 knots appears to be elongating the cloud pattern into an unhealthly, non-circular shape. Patricia is over warm sea surface temperatures (29°C), and wind shear may fall into the low range (5 - 10 knots) later today, so the weakening may be temporary. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to fly the storm this afternoon at 2pm EDT to find out more information. While most of the computer model turn Patricia out to sea to the west before reaching Baja, the storm will probably come close enough to the southern tip of the peninsula to bring wind gusts of 40 mph and rains of 1 - 3 inches. The HWRF model is an outlier, and brings Patricia to the coast of Baja as a Category 1 hurricane. Given Patricia's recent struggles, this solution appears unlikely, and the official NHC track keeping Patricia offshore looks like a good one.

Destructive Tropical Storm Parma making its fifth landfall
Tropical Storm Parma, which traversed the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island three times last week, is making a fifth landfall tomorrow, over northern Vietnam. Parma hit China's Hainen Island yesterday, killing three and causing millions in damage. The death toll from Parma's rains in the Philippines is over 300, on top of the 300 killed by Typhoon Ketsana two weeks prior. Most of Parma's victims were in the mountainous Cordillera region, where more than 40 landslides killed 227 people. Parma dumped over 26 inches of rain in a one-week period over the mountain town of Baguio. Parma has been alive for 16 days, which is a very long time, but far from the record 30-day life span of Typhoon John of 1994.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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362. foggymyst
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:56 (GMT)
Thanks Ike.
Member Since: 23.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
361. BayouBorn1965
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:51 (GMT)
Was the 2005 hurricane season a La Nina year?
Member Since: 21.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
360. TampaSpin
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:48 (GMT)


Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
358. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:44 (GMT)
Quoting foggymyst:
Ike, can you please post the GFS link. Thanks.


It shows things livening up for you Foggy
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
357. TampaSpin
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:43 (GMT)










Severe Weather Update

Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
356. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:42 (GMT)
Quoting foggymyst:
Ike, can you please post the GFS link. Thanks.


6Z GFS....
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
355. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:41 (GMT)
Got a Java loop up on the GOM.

At the bottom of the page it says...These java applet loops will no longer be supported after 01/01/2010.
Flash loops (if linked above) cover the same area.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
354. foggymyst
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Ike, can you please post the GFS link. Thanks.
Member Since: 23.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
353. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:35 (GMT)
I've looked at the long range models....GFS and ECMWF...haven't seen any consistent low on either model in the GOM or Caribbean.

GFS shows something on about half of the runs, but keeps delaying it to almost November.

Maybe south Florida and points south and east get a system.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
351. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:34 (GMT)


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
349. mikatnight
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:32 (GMT)
Hi P451 -

Definitely sympathize with you on that. I’m still not sure, but it seems as though getting banned requires someone on the blog to lodge a complaint. You’re right, myself as well as others have escaped bans that wouldn’t have surprised me if we had been. Ask Floodman (mustache photo), he seems to feel the same. I guess I should also apologize for those posts I’ve made that were less than appreciated yet still not enough to initiate a flag. Just seems like now and again the blog needs a little injection of off topic stuff to shake everyone up a bit. Occasionally it ends up in a ban. I got nailed (I think – Administration wouldn’t be specific) for posting Get Smart’s “Cone of Silence” during a discussion of the Cone of Error. I thought it was hilarious (not so much anyone else). Sometimes you just gotta take one for the team…
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
346. PensacolaDoug
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:25 (GMT)
Here's the JB scoop this morning.


WEDNESDAY 7 AM

GFS "HOCKEY STICK" STUDY AT BIRMINGHAM REPORT..

The new number on the raw data is 1.1 C or around 34. The new number on the model for the morning of the duel. Monday, is 40, down 7 from the number yesterday. As we get closer the variance gets smaller and the number will come in line with the data, rather than trending toward the baseline, which in this case is 0.

Patricia has faded away but represents the eastward move of upward motion. A new Pacific storm will develop well to the southeast of where Patricia did and next week at this time, this should be hitting Mexico from the southwest, getting entrained into a new trough coming by to its north.. The next development late next week or the week after should be in the gulf or Caribbean and the model runs are now starting to see this. This is why I stated I would be surprised if there was not not another named storm or two... and legal ones, before the season is done. Its not clear to me yet that we dont get a hit on the US coast..obviously Florida the most likely candidate, but with the trough around and after the 25th, and entrained tropical system is possible.

But why wait. The storm that is lashing the west coast has the remnants of Melor and with it deepening to 28.20 in the coastal waters off NJ by Friday morning, sustained gales with storm force gusts are likely on the beaches as this does what a noreaster does... move northeast and lash the northeast! Now, this may get the "look" of a warm core system over the gulf stream, but unlike the Jersey Devil which came from an african wave and 5 days before should have been upgraded when in Onslow bay NC, this is more the classic October storm. In fact it looks a little like the "Mother of all mothers Day storms" back in the spring of 08, and that had people rocking. Highest wind gusts with this should reach the equal of the Jersey Devil but the rain will not be nearly as bad ( 4-8 inches with that) near the storm though more inland, and yes, the high ground snow and the second storm are still on the table.

Check this out.. the euro extreme temp forecast http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html

That is nasty in Europe Both Europe and the US are getting a taste of where winter may be worse this year.

ciao for now ****


TUESDAY 7 PM

FINALLY, SOME HEAVYWEIGHTS GET IN THE RING!!

We need more of this, 2 scientists squaring off in the arena of debate

http://fortcollinsteaparty.com/index.php/2009/10/10/dr-william-gray-and-dr-kevi n-trenberth-debate-global-warming/

read for yourself!
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
345. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:22 (GMT)
Quoting P451:


Yep. I kinda though the same thing afterwards. It was worth it. Ask Presslord lol.

Now I'll probably get banned for talking about it. Off Topic! lol.



They won't ban you for being off-topic. Not as slow as it is. They would be banning half the people on here.


Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
344. superpete
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:19 (GMT)
P451Meanwhile, here's 48 hours of Henri and it's Cuban twins following in it's wake
The remnants of Henri passed just south of us here in Grand Cayman.You can make out the naked swirl in sat' image.A lot of high swirling cloud cover seen that day too.Welcome back...
Member Since: 10.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
341. TampaSpin
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:17 (GMT)






Severe Weather Update
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
339. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:14 (GMT)
Quoting P451:
Good Morning. I am out of WU Jail. All I did was post an image of Chris Hansen to Presslord after he posted a Phil Collins lyric that was a little shady. LOL. Then I wake up yesterday to this. LOL I told the admin he needs to get in touch with the community itself and know it and know the players before he can call the game. No response of course. If he did his homework he'd know it was an innocent post by a contributing member. If he were to ban me then he had to ban Press and Mikanight for going off topic, no? What are you going to do I suppose.

Meanwhile, here's 48 hours of Henri and it's Cuban twins following in it's wake.

For a season with such sheared systems it is absolutely amazing how long these remnant systems clung to life isn't it? Something strange there. Think about it. Most sheared systems just disappear after a day or two. This year the sheared systems hung on longer than I can _EVER_ remember. Some say Henri was the remnant of TD8 (I think?) Then Henri's remnants clung to life as well. It might be something that some should look into as we may learn something from this. You learn a lot from a naked entity IMO (haha).



When I saw that picture you posted...I thought...they'll ban him...
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
338. mikatnight
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:08 (GMT)
Morning -

Over 20" of rain in Mining Ridge...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
336. PensacolaDoug
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:02 (GMT)
I love to ski. I've only skied Colorado so far (9 trips in the last 6 years) Like to hit Whistler and Tahoe before I get too old to do this stuff anymore.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
335. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:58 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Mornin all. Been raining here all morning. Lightened up in the last 45 mins or so. Hey Orca! Do you ever get up to Whistler during ski season? One of my dream destinations!


I don't as a habit, but I could...
Hmm could do it as part of an Olympics weather report I guess.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
334. PensacolaDoug
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:48 (GMT)
Mornin all. Been raining here all morning. Lightened up in the last 45 mins or so. Hey Orca! Do you ever get up to Whistler during ski season? One of my dream destinations!
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
332. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:09 (GMT)
Quoting leftovers:
down in the deep tropics game on but maybe northern gulf its over


That's what I think too. It's over here. Lows in the 40's and highs near 70 for a few days....bye-bye 80 degree water temps.

Looking at the GFS out through October 30th...another front toward the end of next week w/a possible strong low in the mid-Atlantic in 10 days...wait til 2010 in the tropics along the northern gulf-coast....

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
330. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:58 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


You're way far away. Home of the Canucks.

That would be the place :)
That was my original Avatar
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
329. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:57 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Victoria BC, on Vancouver Island.


You're way far away. Home of the Canucks.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
328. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:54 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Where the heck do you live? Western Canada?

42 to 47 is pretty chilly for Destin in October.


Victoria BC, on Vancouver Island.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
327. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:52 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I know its only 349 am here... but even I know its only Wednesday :)


Where the heck do you live? Western Canada?

42 to 47 is pretty chilly for Destin in October.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
326. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:50 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Destin forecast....

"Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows 42 to 47. Chance of rain 20 percent. "


I know its only 349 am here... but even I know its only Wednesday :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
325. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:47 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


On the bigger maps I use.. looks like Destin got soaked pretty good also.


Destin forecast....

"Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows 42 to 47. Chance of rain 20 percent. "
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
324. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:41 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Yup. Just looking at the radar....heavy rain moving through Milton,FL...Santa Rosa county. I'm 2 counties east of there....about where the I-10 symbol and the "+" are at. Looks to be moving out by about 8-9 am....



On the bigger maps I use.. looks like Destin got soaked pretty good also.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
323. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:37 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Looks like you are going to be in for a pretty wet morning also Ike.


Yup. Just looking at the radar....heavy rain moving through Milton,FL...Santa Rosa county. I'm 2 counties east of there....about where the I-10 symbol and the "+" are at. Looks to be moving out by about 8-9 am....

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
322. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:34 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
00Z UKMET......shows a strong high diving into the SE USA. Windy and much cooler weather coming up with leaves falling all around.


Looks like you are going to be in for a pretty wet morning also Ike.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
321. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:29 (GMT)
Quoting RTLSNK:


It is without a doubt, the best sprinkler system I have ever built. Six zones, six 30' sprinkler heads per zone. I wonder if it still works? I haven't had to use it since June. :)


I am going to change the format soon... three AOI's and your house.

From the looks of the AOI's today... BF is getting it worse then you are.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
320. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:18 (GMT)
00Z UKMET......shows a strong high diving into the SE USA. Windy and much cooler weather coming up with leaves falling all around.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
319. RTLSNK
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:15 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:

I hope you remembered to turn off the inground sprinklers this time.


It is without a doubt, the best sprinkler system I have ever built. Six zones, six 30' sprinkler heads per zone. I wonder if it still works? I haven't had to use it since June. :)
Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19518
318. IKE
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:12 (GMT)
Good morning. The Atlantic looks like someone took a wet-vac and sucked all of the moisture out.

Anyone else think it's finished in the Atlantic?

Fixing to get much-colder in the SE...from Birmingham,AL...

"COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY EVENING AS RAIN EXITS SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. NAM MODEL IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ADVECTION OF COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS BETWEEN GFS AND MET MOS. FORECAST HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES WHICH IS CLOSER TO AVERAGE GFS MOS
ENSEMBLE VALUES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON
INTO REGION WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY
MORNING.


UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AND A ZONAL
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST STATES...
RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK."
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
317. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:10 (GMT)


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
316. Orcasystems
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:00 (GMT)
Quoting RTLSNK:

I hope you remembered to turn off the inground sprinklers this time.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
315. RTLSNK
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:21 (GMT)
Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19518
314. RTLSNK
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:19 (GMT)
Flood Warning
Statement as of 4:07 AM EDT on October 14, 2009


... Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon... the Flood Warning
continues for
the Ocmulgee River near Macon
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 3am Wednesday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.3 feet by after midnight
tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* At 21.0 feet... minor flooding continues. Much of the Macon Greenway
Ocmulgee heritage trail will flood north of the fifth street
bridge. Agricultural flooding increases north and south of Macon.

Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19518
313. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 09:06 (GMT)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER PATRICIA (EP192009)
9:00 AM UTC October 14 2009
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Patricia (1006 hPa) located at 22.8N 109.7W or 15 NM east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving north-northwest at 5 knots.

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43685
312. xcool
14. lokakuuta 2009 klo 06:14 (GMT)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COVINGTON... CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF AMITE... WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... FRANKLINTON... BOGALUSA...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1248 AM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FRANKLINTON TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF WILMER... OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FRANKLINTON TO 9 MILES EAST OF AMITE... AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROBERT... FOLSOM... ENON... MADISONVILLE AND VARNADO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH... PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL... AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WIND
Member Since: 26.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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