Quiet in the Atlantic; Melor's rains headed for California; Parma kills 160

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:21 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Henri is dead, killed by high wind shear. Henri's remains may bring some isolated heavy rain showers to Puerto Rice today, and San Juan radar is showing a large area of disorganized rain showers north of the island. Henri's remains will move over the northern portion of the Dominican Republic on Saturday, and northern Haiti on Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that Henri's remains will pose a flooding threat to any of the islands. Henri's remains have grown so disorganized that regeneration into a tropical depression is unlikely.

A tropical wave (92L) is over Trinidad and the northern coast of South America. This wave has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms due to interaction with land. The 8pm EDT run of the HWRF model indicated that 92L might be able to organize into a tropical depression, but none of the other models are calling for development. The disturbance is too close to the coast of South America for any development to occur for at least a day or two. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Henri just north of Puerto Rico and Invest 92L over Trinidad and the coast of South America.

Typhoon Melor's remains set to drench California
Typhoon Melor made landfall at 2 am local time on Thursday, October 8, in central Japan's Aichi prefecture (population 7 million), as a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. Melor is being blamed for 2 deaths and up to $1.5 billion in damage. Melor's remains will be paying a visit to California Monday through Wednesday, and the storm is expected to dump 1 - 3 inches of rain along the Northern California coast, and 3 - 6 inches in the hills and Sierra Mountains. High winds of 20 - 40 mph will accompany the rain. Though the heavy rains may cause some flooding problems, they will be more boon than burden--California is under moderate to severe drought.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for the period 5am PDT Monday through 5am PDT Wednesday. Heavy rains of up to six inches are expected over Northern California from the remains of Typhoon Melor. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Typhoon Parma kills 160 in the Philippines
Tropical Storm Parma has completed its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island, and is now headed westward across the South China Sea towards China. Yesterday, rains from Parma's three crossings of northern Luzon triggered landslides that killed at least 160 people. At least 300 Filipinos died two weeks ago due to flooding from Typhoon Ketsana, and the sodden Philippines will finally get a chance to dry out with no more typhoons expected to visit for at least the next week.

The Washington Post posted an interesting story today on What Happened to Hurricane Season.

Jeff Masters

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429. jurakantaino
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:35 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Boy, a lot of history making hurricanes were spawned in the Caribbean or managed to make their way through the Caribbean. God has really blessed Cayman as far as damage from hurricanes. Yes, I know Ivan was catastrophic but remember all the ones that have passed this way and damages were mostly pretty minimal.
We in Puerto Rico can't complain much either, most of the storms and hurricanes skip us or weaken when they are going to make down fall on us. The last big one we had was George 1998.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
428. hydrus
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:58 (GMT)
Quoting beell:


I think it will keep moving west.
:}
It will move through the Western Bahama,s then northward off the east coast of Florida. :)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19495
427. beell
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


The swirl is gonna stay north of Cuba however, and move into the Bahamas.


I think it will keep moving west.
:}
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15297
425. hydrus
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
I got a wunderful Invite this morning to a very Important event here next Month.




CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY

1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 801

Washington, DC 20036-2000





The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to

A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes

Congratulations Pat, it just goes to show what a wonderful difference you have made. You will have to tell us what you learned from this invite. If you can attend.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19495
424. Patrap
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:42 (GMT)
I got a wunderful Invite this morning to a very Important event here next Month.




CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY

1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 801

Washington, DC 20036-2000





The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to

A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes

To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at Mardi Gras World

1380 Port of New Orleans Place



2 p.m. Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy



2:15 2:45 p.m. Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center (invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile



2:45 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes. Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations (invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.



4:00 4:30 p.m. The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member, Tulane Disaster Management Leadership Academy; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of International Cuba Society



4:30 5:00 p.m. President Obamas Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment. Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates



5:00 6:00 p.m. Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize to advance our objectives



6:00 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125433
422. stormwatcherCI
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:34 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Though not as much, it has to deal with dry air as well. This may move just north of due west for today, then forecast steering would indicate this should make it into the EPAC.
Thanks a lot.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
419. portcharlotte
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


The swirl is gonna stay north of Cuba however, and move into the Bahamas.


Is the MJO on schedule to arrive in the Atlantic basin and will it be as as strong as advertised?
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
418. stormwatcherCI
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


The swirl is gonna stay north of Cuba however, and move into the Bahamas.
What about Ex92L and possibilities there ? I know, no forecast on the weekend but would really appreciate a few thoughts. TIA
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
417. portcharlotte
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


The swirl is gonna stay north of Cuba however, and move into the Bahamas.


Thanks StormW....
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
416. stormwatcherCI
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Quoting superpete:
Well spotted. Just east of the Colombian/ Venezuelan border.Shows up well on Nexsat. Although conditions probably not good for development,I note this was the exact area Mitch formed in October '98,a little further west.
Boy, a lot of history making hurricanes were spawned in the Caribbean or managed to make their way through the Caribbean. God has really blessed Cayman as far as damage from hurricanes. Yes, I know Ivan was catastrophic but remember all the ones that have passed this way and damages were mostly pretty minimal.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
412. portcharlotte
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Unless the MJO upward motion we've been waiting on materializes and can bring some abundant moisture...that's all it will be...too much dry air...and the swirl is right in it.





There looks to be a break in the dry air to the west...just north of Cuba
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
411. icepilot
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:01 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh I like that... I am going to borrow that one for the blog :)


wish I could claim it , but old joke -g
Member Since: 9.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
410. Orcasystems
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Quoting icepilot:


arn't you guys up/out there were born with raincoats? - spent 6 yrs in Seattle and always thought it funny there were so many religions - but figured a new one was formed every time the sun came out


Oh I like that... I am going to borrow that one for the blog :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
409. superpete
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
A little flare up there this am too.
Well spotted. Just east of the Colombian/ Venezuelan border.Shows up well on Nexsat. Although conditions probably not good for development,I note this was the exact area Mitch formed in October '98,a little further west.
Member Since: 10.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
408. Orcasystems
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ex92L seems to be pulling away from the Venezuela coast now and around 35W gaining some convection.


I would give a better chance there then Henri
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
406. icepilot
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Anyone want to trade??




arn't you guys up/out there were born with raincoats? - spent 6 yrs in Seattle and always thought it funny there were so many religions - but figured a new one was formed every time the sun came out
Member Since: 9.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
405. stormwatcherCI
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:54 (GMT)
Ex92L seems to be pulling away from the Venezuela coast now and around 35W gaining some convection.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
404. wunderkidcayman
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:53 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
A little flare up there this am too.

and look at ex henri,it is trying to spark and get going
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
403. Orcasystems
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:51 (GMT)


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
402. stormwatcherCI
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like ex92L might start to move more WNW once it crosses the ABC Islands , still worth watching imo.
A little flare up there this am too.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
401. Orcasystems
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Anyone want to trade??


Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
400. stormwatcherCI
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Quoting icepilot:


yea, but you have the trades...lucky dog..try the same numbers but with wind <5 - grin

Question: why is the "Temperate Zone" (defined as free from extremes) called the Temperate Zone when it has the largest swings in seasonal temperatures - below freezing to 100+ degrees????
I don't know but not much "extremes" here. Just goes from HOT to a little less hot. Usually in the winter time we get low 70's at night and once in a while mid 60's but that is not too often.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
399. homelesswanderer
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
anyway the Remnant of Henri the surface Trough now has a surface low to it



I noticed Henri's spin was easily seen on sat. Also on earlier map they showed a surface low just on the Mexican coast at the end of the cold front in the gulf. They took the low off but you can still see the spin clearly at whatever level it is. This does concern me if it makes it over the water. Especially if it manages to merge with the energy in west Caribbean. I don't know what the upper levels are like or if everything will be pushed west but the NAM and GFS have been off and on flirting with the idea of spinning something up in the BOC in a few days. Something to watch I guess.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
398. wunderkidcayman
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like ex92L might start to move more WNW once it crosses the ABC Islands , still worth watching imo.

looking at this sat ex henri is getting some convection on the west side of the COC might be trying redeveloping and I see your point on ex 92l just think if both redevelop and 92 moves WNW and henri moves WSW and a Fujiwhara effect happens and that would be in the Western caribbean that just gives me the creeps
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
397. CaicosRetiredSailor
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Keeping one eye on HenriX
Bar. here is still high & steady
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
396. stormpetrol
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:36 (GMT)
Looks like ex92L might start to move more WNW once it crosses the ABC Islands , still worth watching imo.
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
395. wunderkidcayman
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:32 (GMT)
anyway the Remnant of Henri the surface Trough now has a surface low to it

Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
394. portcharlotte
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:29 (GMT)
StormW....like to hear your take on Henri swirl....It has not totally died IMO at least at this time...
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
393. icepilot
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:28 (GMT)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
32°C | 27°C 90°F | 80°F East to southeast 10 to 15 knots today, .....I know what you mean. Forecast for the Cayman Islands.


yea, but you have the trades...lucky dog..try the same numbers but with wind <5 - grin

Question: why is the "Temperate Zone" (defined as free from extremes) called the Temperate Zone when it has the largest swings in seasonal temperatures - below freezing to 100+ degrees????
Member Since: 9.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
392. portcharlotte
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Florida is baking with temperatures in NW Charlotte County hitting the mid 90s all this week. I would welcome a swirly breeze from Henri or we will all die of heat stroke!
This is the worst heat I have ever seen in October. I have been in S. Florida for 41 years and never saw anything like this at this time of year.
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
391. homelesswanderer
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:22 (GMT)

381. AussieStorm

How sad. That is a nightmare of unimaginable proportions. :( I do feel for those people. I don't even have the words.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
390. stormwatcherCI
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:




do you guys see what I see
I see it. Doesn't look like much going on there ATM though.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
389. portcharlotte
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
388. stormwatcherCI
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:16 (GMT)
Quoting portcharlotte:
Henri is still showing a nice rotation just east of the Turks Islans...It still has an identity and is worth monitoring IMO
I noticed that this morning but lacks convection.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
387. wunderkidcayman
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:14 (GMT)




do you guys see what I see
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
386. portcharlotte
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Henri is still showing a nice rotation just east of the Turks Islans...It still has an identity and is worth monitoring IMO
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
385. portcharlotte
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Henri is still showing a nice rotation just east of the Turks Islans...Itm still has an identity and is worth monitoring IMO
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
384. wunderkidcayman
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9547
383. sullivanweather
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:49 (GMT)
Amazing cold air in Montana!!!


SOUTH FORK JUDITH, MT (SFJM8)
Elev: 6300 ft; Latitude: 46.7228; Longitude: -110.4064

Current time: Sat, 10 Oct 6:47 am (MDT)
Most Recent Observation: Sat, 10 Oct 5:53 am (MDT)
Time Temp.
10 Oct 5:53 am -16
Member Since: 8.03.2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12607
382. stormwatcherCI
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:42 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:
Nice slow fall tropical day... They way I like it. (Although it could be COLDER in Miami... The 90F+ days are getting old, with the triple digit heat indexes)

32°C | 27°C 90°F | 80°F East to southeast 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. Seas are expected to be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.
Sun Partly cloudy skies with a few showers and some thunder. 33°C | 27°C 91°F | 80°F Winds will be from the east winds 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. Slight with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.
Mon Partly cloudy skies with a few showers and some thunder. 33°C | 27°C 91°F | 80°F Winds will be from the east winds 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. Seas are expected to be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.
Tue Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and some thunder. 33°C | 27°C 91°F | 80°F East winds 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. Slight to moderate with wave heights 2 to 4 feet.
Wed partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and possible thunder; few clouds tonight. 33°C | 26°C 91°F | 79°F Winds will be from the east winds 10 to 15 knots today, 5 to 10 knots tonight. slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet I know what you mean. Forecast for the Cayman Islands.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
381. AussieStorm
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:39 (GMT)
From INQUIRER.net

Landslide deaths lift storm toll past 540




PANGASINAN, Philippines
The death toll from two weeks of unprecedented storms across the northern Philippines soared past 540 on Friday after landslides consumed homes and neck-deep floods inundated towns.

At least 181 people were killed in a series of rain-triggered landslides overnight Thursday and on Friday in the Cordillera region, local officials reported.

Meanwhile, the downstream farming plains of Central Luzon were inundated with waters that reached two storeys high after dams in the mountains could not hold the phenomenal amount of water that has fallen on the region.

"The rains in this area are unprecedented," the executive officer of the National Disaster Coordinating Council, Glenn Rabonza, told Agence France-Presse.

"We are stretched, no doubt, but we are responding in the best way we can."

The crisis showed no signs of easing as tropical storm Pepeng (international codename: Parma), responsible for the past week of rains, continued to hover just off Luzon.

In Metro Manila, nearly 300,000 homeless survivors from Tropical Storm Ondoy (Ketsana) were packed into evacuation camps following record rains on September 26 that killed at least 337 people.

US troops helping out in the capital extended their relief work to the north on Friday, dispatching helicopters and other rescue equipment, the Filipino military said.

The US embassy announced an extra two million dollars in aid for the Parma victims on top of money and materials donated for the Ondoy operations, while UN humanitarian chief John Holmes is to begin a two-day visit to the country Monday to review relief efforts, the world body said.

The worst of the overnight landslides appeared to be in remote Benguet province, where 120 people were confirmed killed in five towns, said provincial governor Nestor Fongwan.

Another 38 people were confirmed killed in the neighboring mountain resort of Baguio, officials there said.

Across all of the north, the confirmed death toll from the landslides was 181, on top of the 25 people killed earlier by Pepeng.

In the farming region of Pangasinan province to the southwest of the provinces where the landslides occurred, thousands of people were stranded on rooftops in dangerously similar scenes to those in Manila a fortnight ago.

Days of rain from Parma forced authorities to open the gates on five dams, sending water cascading through dozens of towns in Pangasinan, which has a population of 2.5 million people.

"A lot of places cannot be reached by our rubber boats because the current is too strong due to the waters released by San Roque dam," Pangasinan governor Amado Espino said.

"The dam is supposed to be for flood control but now it is so filled it is like it is not there. The water just rushes right through from the mountains to Pangasinan."

The disaster council's Rabonza said about 60 percent of Pangasinan, including about 30 towns, were flooded with waters reaching as high as the second floor of buildings.

In the town of Rosales, neck-high waters swallowed up houses, vehicles, rice fields and even a large shopping mall.

Desperate local officials made urgent pleas for rubber boats and helicopters to rescue those stranded by the floods.

Parma has been hanging over the northern Philippines since initially hitting as a typhoon on October 3.

Parma hit the Philippines exactly one week after tropical storm Ketsana dumped the heaviest rains in more than four decades on Manila.

The government has been overwhelmed by the crisis, which has forced hundreds of thousands of people in Manila and other parts of Luzon into makeshift evacuation centres after losing their homes to the floods.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
380. indianrivguy
10. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:32 (GMT)
In this mornings western atlantic visable sat loop there is a feature just north of due east to Henri. You can see the shear suck the tops.. and the life right out of the thunderstorms in that "band"
Member Since: 23.09.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2427

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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