Typhoon Parma hits the Philippines as a Catgeory 1 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3. lokakuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)

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Typhoon Parma made landfall as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds and torrential rains over the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island early Saturday morning. Parma had been a very dangerous Category 4 typhoon just 24 hours prior to landfall, but interaction of the storm with the high mountain range along the Philippines' east coast disrupted the storm as it approached landfall. As a result, Parma is dumping less rain than feared, and its path along the extreme northern coast of Luzon is keeping the typhoon's rains well north of the capital of Manila, which is still recovering from the 16+ inches of rain dumped by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. A query of airports in northern Luzon Island done using our interactive wundermap reveals that Parma has dumped between two and six inches of rain over the past two days. Some isolated regions may receive up to twenty inches of rain, according to the latest satellite-based rainfall forecast for Parma (Figure 2). While rains of this magnitude will cause significant damage to localized regions, a major disaster with hundreds of lives lost now appears unlikely in the Philippines due to Typhoon Parma.


Figure 1. Total estimated rainfall from last weeks's Typhoon Ketsana, as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Image credit: NASA/TRMM project.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 4 (2am EDT Sunday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along the extreme northern tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Typhoon Melor
Category 4 Typhoon Melor powered through the northern Marianas Islands 90 miles north of Saipan Island this morning. Melor brought sustained winds of 32 mph to Saipan. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan next week.

The Atlantic remains quiet
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Atlanta flood relief mission today
The portlight.org charity is delivering a load of relief supplies to one of the families affected by the Atlanta, Georgia floods two weeks ago. You can follow the progress of the mission via the portlight.org webcam today.

Jeff Masters

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440. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:57 (GMT)
new blog
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
439. Cavin Rawlins
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:54 (GMT)
New Blog Up
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
438. Cavin Rawlins
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:53 (GMT)
I would look for a consolidation of shower activity



No closed circulation just turning. The interaction with dry air is making it look like "an expose LLC"

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
437. jurakantaino
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:42 (GMT)
You could see the apparent circulation approaching the VI and PR from the E.Link Click the long range radar.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
436. Skyepony (Mod)
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:41 (GMT)
Quikscat caught that large juicy blob in the central atlantic.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
435. jurakantaino
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting gordydunnot:
Did someone turn on a tropical light switch last night. This looks the most tropical the Atlantic has looked this summer. I see 4 AOI's. One below Jamacia and one next to Leeward islands closest to creating some concern.
I'm in Puerto Rico,that area E of Leewards is usually a "hot pot" for tropical syztem to gain strenght quick. So i'm paying attention to that little 'bug' closely.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
434. surfmom
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:19 (GMT)
The great outdoors is calling for my attention - over the overflowing laundry basket.

Time to get out, and enjoy these cooler temps. chickens, cats and the dog are loaded with energy and mischief.....
guess a HARVEST MOON plus COOLER TEMPS equals FRISKYWEATHER*

*my amateur weather report and analysis - good day to ALL
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
433. gordydunnot
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Thanks 456
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
432. Orcasystems
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:16 (GMT)

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice

If you need a morning chuckle, check the comments section :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
431. Cavin Rawlins
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Quoting gordydunnot:
Weather 456 how is the blob in the Leewards doing.


Its activity tied to a surface trough and its brining some showers and thunderstorms to us here but its being sheared so I dont expect anything from it in the near term.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
429. Cavin Rawlins
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Blog Update

Tropical wave to reach the Islands later this week; Melor becomes a category 5

Thanks
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
428. gordydunnot
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Weather 456 how is the blob in the Leewards doing.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
427. luigi18
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting P451:
I see the Atlantic is a bit interesting and expected to become more so.

i thinks so too
Member Since: 21.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
425. Cavin Rawlins
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:10 (GMT)
I stand corrected

Fred-Ex
The remnant low persisted until moving over the southeastern United States. The remnant low was the main cause of the 2009 Georgia floods. The floods left 10 fatalities and $500 million in damage.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
424. surfmom
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Quoting leftovers:
over here in e cent florida the surf has been good only a couple bigger days but lots of fun small days i would not call it the best ever though


Least you have some rollers!!
GULFSTER SURF REPORT
Sunday October 4th A.M.I Just when you thought it couldn't get any flatter... it does. Very calm conditions this morning with no wind and a rising tide. Sunny and bright at the beach today, so if your heading out , pack on the sunscreen.
Gulf Temp 84

AURASURF REPORT

Sunday 7am October 4th Weekly Outlook They keep saying it's going to get as hot as it was a week ago but so far it's a cool 73 here in St Pete this am. Headed for a warm high around 90 today and the humidity is up. It has been cool mornings and evenings with hot afternoons. High pressure will build in this week. The front just N of us will not make it and another front mid-week will wash out also. All our hopes are pegged on a stronger looking front next Sunday 10/11. This time of year the models tend to overhype fronts esp. in the long term so confidence is low on this one right now and our brutal run of no-surf is not looking to end anytime soon.
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
420. surfmom
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Been in the water HiExpress --thanks for that note! I missed it on my Redtide Alert -- yup it's a bit stinky.....

and I had to break out the Angostura, as after my last paddle-session, my gut wasn't tooo happy.

Gomex water has been very warm (88 - 84 degrees) and no storms to upwell and cool it down - kinda like bacteria soup.

Although - fish wise - incredible amounts of baitfish - when I'm out paddling I'm surrounded by flocks of feeding pelicans - great having them dive and splash soo close.... also saw that BlackTipReef resident the last time I was out -- yup, I came right in --though he seemed to be occupado w/the bait fish and not me...
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
419. surfmom
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:53 (GMT)
FROM SURFGODFATHER IN THE PHILIPPINES

Hi X--, Another typhoon! Lots of rain and wind here but, we are fine. To windy to surf today. I think tomorrow and for the next week it looks like the waves will be good. It was a bad summer for Florida. No hurricanes. Maybe this will be a good winter with a lot of cold fronts. The only bad thing will be cold water. I do not miss that. Tell 'the Horseman" to keep positive and study hard. I will write again soon. Aloha, H-- xxxx


As you can read -- he's all about the wave.. We're relieved no 'canes, but most hard core Surfers see it w/ another set of eyes.
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
418. HIEXPRESS
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:52 (GMT)
HABS: GOM Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting System
Member Since: 13.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
417. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TYPHOON MELOR (T0918)
21:00 PM JST October 4 2009
================================

Subject: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Melor (910 hPa) located at 17.5N 139.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 13 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 20.2N 133.6E - 110 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 24.3N 130.8E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
72 HRS: 29.0N 133.2E - 100 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
416. Autistic2
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


We used to have the acorn problem. I remember telling my kids to be careful, go in the house while someones mowing, don't dent my car, don't break my windows. So naturally I was mowing, my daughter walked out the front door, acorn shot across the yard, strait over her head and shattered the the glass storm door behind her. Little brats wouldn't let me live it down because I broke the window. Lol. We replaced the glass with safety glass and hubby does all the mowing now so its all good. :)


I was weed eating a few years ago and broke a window with a small rock that flew into it.

I can hear the acorns hitting my roof right now.

LOL...burn leaves and you have acorns popping.



My friend cut his A/C condenser core with a weed whacker. 1500 later...........his house was cool and his wife was very HOT.

Last week someone here gave some good advise. I will Preview my post before posting.

My apologies to any I upset last week. I now have a battery powered alarm for my meds.
Member Since: 29.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
414. gordydunnot
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Did someone turn on a tropical light switch last night. This looks the most tropical the Atlantic has looked this summer. I see 4 AOI's. One below Jamacia and one next to Leeward islands closest to creating some concern.
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3109
413. AllStar17
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Typhoon Parma STORM TRACK:
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
412. Dakster
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 13:01 (GMT)
I guess we will have to see what happens over the next couple of weeks. Maybe the "experts" are correct in that we will see another bonified, real, non-challenged named storm form.

I'd rather take a long series of minor quakes than to let that pressure build up and have one extreme (9.0+) one. However, I am not living through it.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9668
411. InTheCone
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:48 (GMT)
This is looking very robust this morning...

Member Since: 1.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
410. surfmom
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:41 (GMT)
Post 403 Aussie - Shake, Rattle and Roll - sure hope Earth settles down - lot of re-arranging of the plates

Futuremet - good read - !! specially cause I "get it"
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
409. Cavin Rawlins
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:14 (GMT)
407. IKE 7:53 AM AST on October 04, 2009

That wont be there for long

Shear Forecast
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
408. Cavin Rawlins
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 12:13 (GMT)
Good Morning All

Blog Update

Tropical wave to reach the Islands later this week; Melor becomes a category 5

Thanks
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
407. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:53 (GMT)
Barrier up over the USA. 100 knots of shear racing east.....

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
406. futuremet
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:52 (GMT)
A vigorous upward MJO pulse will propagate across the Atlantic soon. A predominant ridging pattern will remain in the east coast for the majority of next week. The problem is: it seems that the peak of the MJO upward phase will move into the Atlantic when a troughing pattern replaces the ridging pattern.

When a ridging pattern is established across the east coast, the following happen:

1) All tropical waves or showers and thunderstorm activity move west toward central America or the GOM...sometimes.

2) The pressure gradient between the ITCZ also enhanced the perenial low (is that how you call it???) or Columbian low increase wind speeds across the area. As a result, tropical waves have little time to consolidate and move inland rather quickly. This can also cause upwelling.

When a troughing pattern establishes across the east coast, the following happen:

1) Moisture from the SW Caribbean and sometimes even from the bordering east pacific will advect in a more northerly direction. This allow tropical waves to stay over water longer, and gives them more time to complete tropical cyclogenesis.

2) Because of the prolonged surface convergence, upper air conditions will become more favorable as an upper high establishes.

3) Bad news...storms have a higher chance of hitting the SE U.S.


-Keep in mind that all of this is based on an upward MJO. If the phase was downward, it would not really matter which pattern is across the east coast, for conditions will not really be favorable for the most part....especially in an el nino.




Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
405. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:47 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
404. SLU
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:43 (GMT)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4731
403. AussieStorm
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:40 (GMT)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I could only imagine how they felt during the earthquakes. It's got to be terrifying after the 2004 tsunami. I hope the earth stops shaking and their typhoon season ends as well. I don't know if all these quakes are normal but it seems a lot to me. Poor people. :( I just don't have the words.


Latest Earthquakes Magnitude 5.0 and Greater in the World - Last 7 days


6.6 2009/10/04 10:58:01 6.721 123.480 630.5 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.4 2009/10/04 09:10:30 -16.247 -173.243 10.0 TONGA
5.5 2009/10/04 03:36:00 -0.443 133.023 39.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.1 2009/10/03 17:36:05 23.635 121.565 17.5 TAIWAN
5.1 2009/10/03 15:36:29 27.991 127.788 80.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.2 2009/10/03 07:16:59 -16.881 -172.986 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
5.3 2009/10/02 22:38:45 -17.808 -172.590 44.3 TONGA REGION
5.1 2009/10/02 20:03:03 -17.157 -172.667 10.0 TONGA REGION
5.3 2009/10/02 15:53:57 -0.866 121.727 49.6 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.8 2009/10/02 15:47:14 -17.032 174.474 35.8 FIJI REGION
5.1 2009/10/02 13:49:11 39.463 95.584 10.0 GANSU, CHINA
5.4 2009/10/02 12:08:32 -16.419 -172.679 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 2009/10/02 12:01:11 -15.363 -173.201 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/10/02 11:09:34 -14.773 -173.438 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 2009/10/02 09:57:19 -6.113 151.415 47.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.1 2009/10/02 02:46:48 -16.732 -172.300 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/10/02 02:23:14 -6.332 130.794 84.7 BANDA SEA
5.1 2009/10/02 01:55:07 -14.490 -173.371 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
6.1 2009/10/02 01:07:40 -16.327 -173.480 10.0 TONGA
5.4 2009/10/01 20:55:44 -12.291 166.430 85.5 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 2009/10/01 20:13:52 -15.550 -172.820 33.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/10/01 18:40:17 -14.995 -173.433 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 2009/10/01 18:18:53 -15.064 -173.846 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/10/01 13:33:44 -15.446 -173.563 10.0 TONGA
5.4 2009/10/01 10:51:08 -17.200 -172.789 10.0 TONGA REGION
5.0 2009/10/01 10:01:24 36.388 -117.859 5.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
5.0 2009/10/01 09:47:27 -16.270 -173.549 10.0 TONGA
5.1 2009/10/01 07:24:09 -15.373 -173.106 10.0 TONGA
5.7 2009/10/01 06:13:30 -15.229 -172.932 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/10/01 02:20:31 -2.465 101.342 10.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.6 2009/10/01 01:52:30 -2.497 101.540 15.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 2009/10/01 01:31:05 4.258 127.508 64.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 2009/10/01 00:30:23 -16.443 -172.443 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/09/30 21:34:32 55.874 162.001 35.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
5.0 2009/09/30 21:22:54 -16.667 -173.827 10.0 TONGA
5.2 2009/09/30 19:43:53 -15.354 -173.454 10.0 TONGA
5.8 2009/09/30 19:03:17 -15.535 -69.254 253.9 LA PAZ, BOLIVIA
5.2 2009/09/30 18:04:47 -15.097 -177.276 10.0 FIJI REGION
5.2 2009/09/30 17:47:17 -15.453 -173.384 10.0 TONGA
5.4 2009/09/30 17:20:40 -23.049 169.516 31.2 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 2009/09/30 15:20:16 -15.087 -173.427 10.0 TONGA
5.3 2009/09/30 13:57:11 -16.637 -172.519 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 2009/09/30 12:48:01 -6.277 151.402 56.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.5 2009/09/30 10:38:54 -0.717 100.070 104.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
7.6 2009/09/30 10:16:09 -0.725 99.856 81.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 2009/09/30 09:05:13 -16.132 -172.861 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 2009/09/30 08:24:59 -16.575 -172.685 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 2009/09/30 05:24:51 -15.351 -173.380 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/30 04:03:12 -15.621 -173.351 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/30 02:47:27 -15.723 -173.142 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/30 02:29:34 -16.617 -173.038 10.0 TONGA
5.1 2009/09/30 01:39:50 -15.483 -173.383 10.0 TONGA
5.6 2009/09/30 01:39:43 4.914 126.727 72.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 2009/09/30 01:09:30 -14.972 -173.612 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 2009/09/30 01:05:35 -14.914 -173.245 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.1 2009/09/30 00:40:52 -15.460 -172.931 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/09/30 00:11:38 -15.992 -172.243 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.9 2009/09/29 23:45:03 -15.840 -172.531 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 2009/09/29 23:32:57 -15.539 -173.322 10.0 TONGA
5.5 2009/09/29 23:11:52 -15.565 -173.365 10.0 TONGA
5.4 2009/09/29 22:36:18 27.835 127.800 7.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 2009/09/29 22:08:30 -15.345 -173.387 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/29 21:28:57 -17.205 -173.002 10.0 TONGA
5.2 2009/09/29 19:18:53 -16.879 -172.803 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.1 2009/09/29 18:57:59 -16.100 -173.037 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/29 18:46:02 -14.953 -173.329 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.5 2009/09/29 18:40:13 -15.340 -173.270 20.4 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/29 18:36:30 -15.306 -172.963 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 2009/09/29 18:34:30 -14.920 -172.443 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS
5.1 2009/09/29 18:29:26 -15.909 -173.208 10.0 TONGA
5.8 2009/09/29 18:21:42 -16.193 -172.982 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.6 2009/09/29 18:19:36 -15.952 -171.611 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.6 2009/09/29 18:08:22 -15.467 -172.092 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
8.0 2009/09/29 17:48:11 -15.509 -172.034 18.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/09/29 06:01:14 30.939 83.485 10.0 WESTERN XIZANG
5.8 2009/09/28 19:22:56 27.938 127.867 1.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 2009/09/28 14:38:57 -6.125 152.202 31.9 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.3 2009/09/28 12:13:18 -25.631 -13.823 10.0 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 2009/09/27 15:16:53 2.671 125.733 107.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA


Talk about a restless earth
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
402. homelesswanderer
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:34 (GMT)
I'll be back later. Have a good day everyone. :)
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
401. homelesswanderer
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:32 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Those people have been through a lot. Scary tape.


I could only imagine how they felt during the earthquakes. It's got to be terrifying after the 2004 tsunami. I hope the earth stops shaking and their typhoon season ends as well. I don't know if all these quakes are normal but it seems a lot to me. Poor people. :( I just don't have the words.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
400. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:21 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Padang Indonesia Quake amateur footage
Link

New Quake
Magnitude 6.5 - MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
2009 October 04 10:58:01 UTC


Those people have been through a lot. Scary tape.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
399. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:16 (GMT)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


We used to have the acorn problem. I remember telling my kids to be careful, go in the house while someones mowing, don't dent my car, don't break my windows. So naturally I was mowing, my daughter walked out the front door, acorn shot across the yard, strait over her head and shattered the the glass storm door behind her. Little brats wouldn't let me live it down because I broke the window. Lol. We replaced the glass with safety glass and hubby does all the mowing now so its all good. :)


I was weed eating a few years ago and broke a window with a small rock that flew into it.

I can hear the acorns hitting my roof right now.

LOL...burn leaves and you have acorns popping.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
398. AussieStorm
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:13 (GMT)
Padang Indonesia Quake amateur footage
Link

New Quake
Magnitude 6.5 - MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
2009 October 04 10:58:01 UTC
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
397. homelesswanderer
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:13 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
00Z NOGAPS...shows the trough diving to the gulf-coast in the same time period as the ECMWF and GFS.

Good news is...I've probably got one more time to mow my yard. Bad news is...all of the leaves and acorns are falling to the ground.

Time to start burning leaves again.


We used to have the acorn problem. I remember telling my kids to be careful, go in the house while someones mowing, don't dent my car, don't break my windows. So naturally I was mowing, my daughter walked out the front door, acorn shot across the yard, strait over her head and shattered the the glass storm door behind her. Little brats wouldn't let me live it down because I broke the window. Lol. We replaced the glass with safety glass and hubby does all the mowing now so its all good. :)
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
396. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:10 (GMT)
San Juan talking about that huge wave....and a cold front.

"BANDS
OF MOISTURE APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE WEEK...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE APPEARS TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOLLOWED
BY MUCH DRIER AIR SUNDAY NEXT AND FOLLOWING. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT MOVING
TO ALMOST 17 NORTH BY THE TUESDAY AFTER NEXT...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO
SOON IN THE SEASON."

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
395. somemalayguy117
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 11:07 (GMT)
Melor is looking like a beast and it kicked Choi-wain out of the "Worlds Strongest Storm So Far In 2009" throne with 145 kt winds and a pressure of 915 hPa. (you can refer to JMA for pressure information since the JTWC doesn't provide pressure data, except in their ATCRs)
394. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:56 (GMT)
00Z NOGAPS...shows the trough diving to the gulf-coast in the same time period as the ECMWF and GFS.

Good news is...I've probably got one more time to mow my yard. Bad news is...all of the leaves and acorns are falling to the ground.

Time to start burning leaves again.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
393. homelesswanderer
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:51 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:


Just beyond Saturday will be the cooler/drier weather for you from what I've read.

A 1033 mb high will be over the central plains moving ESE....according to the 6Z GFS...





Ah good. That will keep me in a northerly or easterly flow. Hopefully not too much wind. But my old bones will love some drier air. Not to mention this curly hair. Lol.
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
392. IKE
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:49 (GMT)
Long-range GFS shows another significant cold front in the 12-14 day period for the entire eastern USA, except maybe southern Florida.

Birmingham,AL. office starts talking 30's for lows.... That's probably in the northern Alabama mountains. Probably means upper 40's for inland areas along the northern GOM coast.

Wave between 35-40 needs mentioning by the NHC and maybe an invest number at some point.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
391. GeoffreyWPB
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:47 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10576
390. homelesswanderer
4. lokakuuta 2009 klo 10:46 (GMT)
Oops! Links to those models.

CMC Link

EuroLink

And that CMC model doesn't show much below the GOM. So if that low develops and I can't see it after the Yucatan channel then all I can take from that is either they drop the low or it goes west or south. You may have called it right about the gulf Ike. Don't look like nothing wants in there. :)
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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