Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:52 (GMT)

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The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.

Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters

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407. AwakeInMaryland
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Thanks for the link to this news story, Orca. At least Canada is thinking about next storm!

You probably won't see this as new blog was posted awhile ago, but thanks anyway.
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
406. AwakeInMaryland
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Philippines braces for new storm as toll hits 246

Thanks for the link to this news story, Orca. At least Canada is thinking about next storm!
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
405. Bordonaro
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:53 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
23 found dead so far in Vietnam from Ketsana.


That is very unfortunate. What troubles me personally is how people do not receive the warnings of impending danger, even worse, when people IGNORE the warnings!

Do all nations need to do like Cuba, when it comes to severe weather? I understand when they issue evacuation warnings, you leave voluntarily OR your ARRESTED.

I live in Tornado Alley. I used to take the warnings lightly, "It'll never happen to me"!

One day it did! A Severe Thunderstorm struck C Arlington, TX, in 1987; my wife and 5 children saw 115MPH wind gusts first hand, it lasted over 1 hr. I'll never forget, I remember the family hunkered down in the bedroom, just waiting for one of our 50' Maple trees to come crashing through the roof, or the windows to get blown out or our roof to peel off, in the 115MPH gusts.

People, PLEASE, when an agency issues a WARNING DO NOT IGNORE IT!

Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
404. Orcasystems
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:43 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
403. IKE
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:42 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
402. Orcasystems
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:31 (GMT)
Philippines braces for new storm as toll hits 246
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
401. Skyepony (Mod)
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:29 (GMT)
23 found dead so far in Vietnam from Ketsana.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36148
400. biff4ugo
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:28 (GMT)
The weather looks very different with only one hurricane model to look at.
Member Since: 28.12.2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1499
399. weathermanwannabe
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Good Morning............Back to lurk mode...
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8298
398. NEwxguy
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:26 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:
U.S. Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in a Decade (Update2)


Theres two different opinions in that article.Matt Rogers predicts the coldest winter in a decade,then it prints the NWS says warmer in the Pacifice means warmer weather in the Northeast for Jan. Feb. and Mar.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 863 Comments: 15101
397. hurricane23
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
I thought NHC might include the system near 40 west....wrong.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH



Nohing out there for right now stands a chance the atl is very hostile just about everywere you look.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
396. Orcasystems
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca..did you say snow storm for fla?! LMAO


You did say you wanted some weather days off... snow is just friendly rain :)

(I can't believe I typed that...I hate snow, and you don't have to shovel rain)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
395. foggymyst
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:16 (GMT)
Orca..did you say snow storm for fla?! LMAO
Member Since: 23.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
394. AwakeInMaryland
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:10 (GMT)
Good Morning to all,
Would the pros and semi-pros please discuss 18 and 20 in the West Pac and the possible effects on Guam and the Marianas. My friend in Guam said 19 was never an issue for Guam. I hope StormW and Dr. Masters discuss these systems in their upcoming blogs, too.
The Typhoon Center keeps saying the models are not in agreement (but early on discussion said the ECMWF seemed it might be the best).
Many thanks in advance.
(oh, students of weather comments always appreciated, too, I didn't mean to sound like I discounted anyone's opinion.)
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
393. Orcasystems
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:09 (GMT)
U.S. Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in a Decade (Update2)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
392. Orcasystems
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:01 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalBruce:
Really excellent! It looks like the season is ending quietly. With a cold front coming down through Florida and another expected in a few days, that should help keep the season quiet. The western Caribbean still has to be watched for another few weeks, but so far, so good in terms of gradually ending the threat of tropical cyclones for the season.


Almost time to set up the snow watch for Florida :)
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
391. TropicalBruce
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:46 (GMT)
Really excellent! It looks like the season is ending quietly. With a cold front coming down through Florida and another expected in a few days, that should help keep the season quiet. The western Caribbean still has to be watched for another few weeks, but so far, so good in terms of gradually ending the threat of tropical cyclones for the season.
Member Since: 10.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
390. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:33 (GMT)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
One more steam bath today then a brief touch of cooler mornings, ahhhh, mornings in the upper 60's in SFL Mid Week.
only problem with the cool air is the rtn flow off gom that follows after it moves out looks like this next system coming out of rockies will drawn some more cooler air down by end of week startin early next week a flow sets up with a stream coming up off epac ne over baja into cen west texas with building rtn flow off gom should dev a significant storm system over southern plains to track across eastern half conus south of lakes along the southern shore of erie ontario then bomb out with a sweeping cold front as it moves ne after that looks like tue to thu next week for this feature at the moment
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
389. WxLogic
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:29 (GMT)
Good morning...
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
388. Greyelf
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:21 (GMT)
Brrr.... 39 degrees this morning. I'm not ready.
Member Since: 5.06.2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
387. TheCaneWhisperer
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:06 (GMT)
One more steam bath today then a brief touch of cooler mornings, ahhhh, mornings in the upper 60's in SFL Mid Week.
386. Magicchaos
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:59 (GMT)
5AM advisories from JTWC:

Typhoon Ketsana
15.4N 108.6E
Winds:105 MPH
Movement:W at 7 MPH
Pressure:970 MB



Tropical Storm 18W
11.5N 150.0E
Winds:40 MPH
Movement:WNW at 18 MPH
Pressure:1002 MB



Tropical Storm Parma
7.9N 138.4E
Winds:50 MPH
Movement:WSW at 12 MPH
Pressure:994 MB



Tropical Depression 20W
10.6N 158.9E
Winds:30 MPH
Movement:WNW at 23 MPH
Pressure:1002 MB



18W is supposed to be absorbed by 19W(Parma) by 96hrs(4 days)
Member Since: 3.04.2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
385. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:55 (GMT)


cool windy and a little rain fall is in full swing may have to fire the heat up starting this evening until sat morning with overnight temps in low 40's tonight and mid 30's wed thu fri
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
382. IKE
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:33 (GMT)
I thought NHC might include the system near 40 west....wrong.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
381. somemalayguy117
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:32 (GMT)
TS Melor (not named by the JMA yet but JTWC upgraded TD 18W to a TS) and TD 19/28 reminds me of Typhoon Joan and Ivan since they are pretty close together and follow similar paths.
380. Orcasystems
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:25 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
62.2 degrees outside my window(overnight low so far)...right now...as I type...dew point down to 55.



Its starting to feel like Fall here :(

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
379. IKE
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:23 (GMT)
62.2 degrees outside my window(overnight low so far)...right now...as I type...dew point down to 55.

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
378. Orcasystems
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:18 (GMT)
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Check out the comments section for the Comedy
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
377. litestar
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:18 (GMT)
Palm bay Fla. temp74 humidity 88% barometer29.873 in Looks like a lovely day here. I am going to take them out for lunch. May be thay will get happy again..
375. surfmom
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:08 (GMT)
Good Morning 82 degrees SRQ. FL - still warm - but.....humidity at 67%
Finally not 90% !!!

Gulf at 88 degrees
Member Since: 18.07.2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
374. hunkerdown
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:59 (GMT)
people have some serious issues on here...
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
373. litestar
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:54 (GMT)
456 Thank you for update...My old ones reading what taco said an woke up the whole house with news that it was over.An I had to tell them not to read what he wrote. Then thay got all sad.. thanks for the truth..Star
372. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:43 (GMT)
Subject: Category Three Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ketsana (970 hPa) located at 15.3N 108.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 9 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
70 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
475 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
325 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.3N 107.6E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 16.0N 106.3E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701
371. litestar
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:41 (GMT)
Good moring to all.
370. Cavin Rawlins
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:07 (GMT)
My blog is updated

Typhoon Ketsana strikes Vietnam

Why was Ketsana so wet?


Tropical Update



Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
368. futuremet
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:54 (GMT)
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
367. BahaHurican
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:50 (GMT)
Morning johny and 456.

I'm getting out now, but I keep remembering a secondary peak in OCT on that average chart. I'm not saying we are likely to get anything big, [not hoping for it at all] but more named storms are not outside the realm of the possible.

Ya'll have a great day!
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
366. Cavin Rawlins
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:30 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning, ya'll.

I don't hear no singing, so I don't think we're quite done yet....

I really don't think we'll see more than TS strength out of anything else, though. Maybe one of these latest waves will last long enough to take advantage of whatever upswing in the MJO we see in the next little while....


Morning all


My outlook for the remainder of the season is finish but I will post it 2mr. But here are some interesting facts

By September 29, we are due for 3 additional tropical storms

September 09 has been one of the quietest Septembers since probably 1997 and there are indications this slow progression will only get slower as we near the end of the season.

There is a 50/50 chance that MJO will affect seasonal activity, with a 80% El Nino will affect the remainder of the season and 30-50% chance the seasonal will extend pass October 15.

I do urge persons in the Caribbean and South Florida to be alert still since TCHP is extremely high in the W CARIB and late seasonal hurricanes are still a threat - Lenny, Omar, Paloma, Wilma, etc.

However, these famous late seasonal storms never occurred in an El Nino year, so that should be considered.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
365. BahaHurican
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:26 (GMT)
It's something to watch, anyway....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
364. MisterJohnny
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:20 (GMT)
Good Morning Futuremet, Good Morning Baha
363. IKE
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:20 (GMT)
Maybe this has a chance....

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
362. BahaHurican
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:18 (GMT)
Morning, ya'll.

I don't hear no singing, so I don't think we're quite done yet....

I really don't think we'll see more than TS strength out of anything else, though. Maybe one of these latest waves will last long enough to take advantage of whatever upswing in the MJO we see in the next little while....
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
361. IKE
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:12 (GMT)
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good morning IKE. Has it cooled off yet up there?


It's started. I woke up about 3 am(after going to sleep at 7:30pm). It was at 70 degrees then. Now dropped to 66.6. Dew point at 60.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
360. futuremet
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:07 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
Very little on the 00Z ECMWF through October 9th.

Is it over?


Ike, I saw something there that is becoming more pronounced each run...

Other models are forecasting this. It will likely go out to sea if takes this path.
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
359. MisterJohnny
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 09:07 (GMT)
Good morning IKE. Has it cooled off yet up there?
358. IKE
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 08:21 (GMT)
Very little on the 00Z ECMWF through October 9th.

Is it over?
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
357. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
29. syyskuuta 2009 klo 08:18 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "22"
15:00 PM JST September 29 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marshalls Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.6N 160.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 12.8N 156.5E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

---
wow the numbering is going to be wierd

Typhoon 20 is 17W
Tropical Storm 21 is 19W
Tropical Depression 22 would be 20W
Tropical Depression 23 may be 18W
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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