Records rains in Philippines from Tropical Storm Ketsana kill at least 106

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 27. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:52 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped prodigious amounts of rain on the Philippine Islands Saturday, triggering flooding that killed at least 106 people and left 280,000 people homeless. The flooding was particularly bad in the capital of Manilla, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). The flooding from Ketsana was the worst in at least 42 years in Manilla, and the streets of the entire city became submerged in knee to waist deep or higher flood waters. Local news video showed dramatic footage of flood victims being swept down a suburban river on a pile of debris. Ketsana is currently over the South China Sea, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon before hitting Vietnam on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Eight dissipated yesterday, and there are no threat areas to discuss today. The GFS model is forecasting development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa in about seven days time.

Jeff Masters

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482. lawntonlookers
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:08 (GMT)
Quoting Progster:
"Lake Superior, they say, never gives up her dead, when the Gales of November come early".

Gordon Lightfoot, Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald



Link


Strange that you bring that up. By the looks of the satelitte, Thunder Bay has a pretty strong low pressure this morning.
Member Since: 22.03.2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
481. IKE
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:02 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
480. Tazmanian
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:47 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:
In fact the rainy season should be over tomorrow for much of Florida as the first front of the fall season plows into the state.



and the rainy season this starting for the West cost
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
479. hurricane23
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:40 (GMT)
In fact the rainy season should be over tomorrow for much of Florida as the first front of the fall season plows into the state.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
478. zoomiami
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:39 (GMT)
Thanks NRt just what we needed to know!
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
477. hurricane23
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:37 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Climatology
Mainland South Florida - October


In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season.


With the presence of a moderate nino we should not have much to worry about in southeast florida this october.

Looks like december/january out there.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
476. nrtiwlnvragn
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:21 (GMT)
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Climatology
Mainland South Florida - October



In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10473
475. Progster
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:21 (GMT)
"Lake Superior, they say, never gives up her dead, when the Gales of November come early".

Gordon Lightfoot, Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald



Link
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
474. Dakster
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:11 (GMT)
456 - Ketsana's taking the vietnam to India route... It would be wierd if it is able to regenerate after going over that much land. Looking at google earth, it isn't exactly all flat either.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
473. Dakster
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:02 (GMT)
tornadodude - I'll take the 50 degree temps.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9768
472. futuremet
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:53 (GMT)
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
471. tornadodude
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:46 (GMT)
this is an intense low. pressure of 984.1 mb
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
470. Cavin Rawlins
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 11:00 (GMT)
I hope Vietnam is prepared...cat 2 winds expected to affect the region. But look at how weird the track is at the end of the forecast cycle. It goes back over the Bay of Bengal. This is not totally far-fetch. Some of the sources of Bay of Bengal cyclones are the remnants of Pacific ones. There is also an invest in the BOB

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
469. Cavin Rawlins
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:56 (GMT)
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning 456


morning fellow blogger.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
468. MisterJohnny
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:53 (GMT)
Good Morning 456
467. Cavin Rawlins
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:51 (GMT)
Blog Update

The power of rainfall
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
466. Cavin Rawlins
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:48 (GMT)
Good Morning all
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
465. AllStar17
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:46 (GMT)
Typhoon Ketsana:

(I'll have a full graphics update this afternoon):
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
464. IKE
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:34 (GMT)
00Z ECMWF....doesn't show much through October 8th.

Looks like a 2nd frontal passage here the end of the week...

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BEGIN AS WEAK OMEGA BLOCK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A WEAK REX BLOCK BY THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GFS IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE MORE DYNAMIC WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... SHOWING MORE QPF THAN ECMWF. WILL BLEND THE
TWO MODELS FOR POP FORECAST.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. MEX FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...PUSHING TEMPS BACK JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
463. IKE
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:23 (GMT)
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning Ike. I heard it will be cooling off up there mid week !


Yes...

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. West northwest wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 50.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
462. MisterJohnny
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:21 (GMT)
Good Morning Ike. I heard it will be cooling off up there mid week !
461. IKE
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 10:10 (GMT)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
256 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

...DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
OVER OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CAA AND SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MAY BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE LOW 50S OVER THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 60 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL BE THE COOLEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
459. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 08:48 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 9.4N 143.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 8 knots
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
458. markymark1973
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 08:12 (GMT)
Amazing that its the last week in September and the tropics are flat lined in the Atlantic.

457. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 06:59 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TYPHOON KETSANA (T0916)
15:00 PM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ketsana (965 hPa) located at 15.8N 111.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
475 NM from the center in south quadrant
375 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.6N 109.3E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.6N 107.8E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm
72 HRS: 16.6N 106.4E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
456. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 06:23 (GMT)
522
TCNA21 RJTD 280600
CCAA 28060 47644 KETSANA(0916) 20158 11119 12344 250// 92609=

6:00 AM UTC September 28 2009

TY Ketsana (0916) [System #20]
15.8N 111.9E
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

---
quite an intensification in 6hr period
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
455. Magicchaos
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 06:10 (GMT)
Quick forecasts on WP cyclones:

Typhoon Ketsana:
Ketsana is moving toward the west at 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days and Ketsana could make landfall near Hue,Vietnam by Tuesday morning.

Tropical Depression 18W:
Eighteen-W is moving erratically, but generally toward the southwest at 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days and Eighteen-W is expected to be near the Marianas by Tuesday night.

Tropical Depression 19W:
Nineteen-W is moving toward the west at 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 to 48 hours, followed by a turn towards the northwest, then north-northwest. Nineteen is expected to pass over the island of Yap by early Tuesday morning.

Times in EDT(UTC-4)

Going to bed now. Night.
Member Since: 3.04.2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
454. IPlayTS3
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 06:08 (GMT)
And I think PAGASA must remove their system of "signal numbers". They raise signals on where the center of the storm will hit, not the rain or wind different places will encounter.

For example, Ketsana's heavy rainbands are more in the south of the center of the storm. Thus, high signals raised on those places encounter weaker wind and rain while the places placed on lower signals received very heavy rains, in this case Metro Manila. This is why they didn't expect these floods.
Member Since: 10.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
453. tornadodude
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 06:05 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I tried to post the animation from today, but for some reason it's stuck on last Feb. Anyway, it's past my bedtime :) Night y'all.


have a good one, in Lac La Belle MI, the pressure is 984.8 right now link
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
451. tornadodude
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 06:00 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Never mind, link not working properly



ok gotcha now
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
450. tornadodude
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 06:00 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Link


that is pretty high
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
448. IPlayTS3
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:53 (GMT)
Quoting Magicchaos:


I think the reason might be because they use different methods of identifying tropical cyclones than others.
This might also be why sometimes the JTWC identifies a cyclone before the JMA or PAGASA do and vice-versa. Different agencies, different opinions.

BTW, which agency are you talking about?


PAGASA.

Live on Philippine television did he say that those are only cloud clusters.

A news anchor asked if these depressions will affect the country and the director of PAGASA said that they are only cloud clusters, not depressions.

I think you're right. Different opinions from different agencies.
Member Since: 10.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
447. Magicchaos
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:50 (GMT)
Quoting IPlayTS3:
Our stupid weather agency identifies TD 18W and 19W as cloud clusters.

Wondering why these epic floods happen?

Not anymore.

God bless the Philippines.


I think the reason might be because they use different methods of identifying tropical cyclones than others.
This might also be why sometimes the JTWC identifies a cyclone before the JMA or PAGASA do and vice-versa. Different agencies, different opinions.

BTW, which agency are you talking about?
Member Since: 3.04.2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
446. tornadodude
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:49 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Yeah Tornadodude, we are close to the Bermuda high, our average pressure here is 30.07" Our lowest pressure in past 6 years was with tropical storm Barry (2007)


oh ok, makes sense, must be pretty low here because my toes and fingers are aching now
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
445. Bordonaro
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:48 (GMT)
Quoting serialteg:


Borondaro!!! Exclamation points!!!

Sorry, I enjoy using them.
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
443. IPlayTS3
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:44 (GMT)
Our stupid weather agency identifies TD 18W and 19W as cloud clusters.

Wondering why these epic floods happen?

Not anymore.

God bless the Philippines.
Member Since: 10.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
442. tornadodude
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:39 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Wow in 6 years we have never had the pressure break 997 mb here tornadodude.


really?? it is 994 here now
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
441. Magicchaos
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:38 (GMT)
Quoting TexNowNM:


Do I understand this correctly? This storm would be a higher category in the US than what it has been given in the Pacific.

I do feel for those people and will pray for them, I can assure you.


The JMA(Japan Meteorological Agency) goes by 10-min sustained winds, which are usually lower the 1-min sustained winds we go by because they are measured for a longer time span.

The JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center) goes by 1-min sustained if you want to know what it would be for us.

Link
Member Since: 3.04.2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
438. Orcasystems
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:33 (GMT)

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
437. TexNowNM
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:32 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:
The W Pacific systems have so much MORE latent heat energy readily availiable than their Atlantic conterparts! Thousands of miles of deep ocean averaging 85F!! That extra energy translates into more convection, over a larger area, larger storms!!

In the Atlantic, we rate our storms at a 1 MIN max wind speed!! Another word a CAT 3 w/115 MPH winds in the Atlantic has 115MPH winds for 1 minute in a portion of the storm!!

The Japanese Meteorological Service, their typhoons are a 10 MIN max speed!! So if Typhoon Katsana has 75MPH winds, there measured for 10 minutes in portions of the storm!! There may well be 110MPH winds for 1 minute in that storm, maybe more!!!


Do I understand this correctly? This storm would be a higher category in the US than what it has been given in the Pacific.

I do feel for those people and will pray for them, I can assure you.
Member Since: 14.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
436. tornadodude
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:18 (GMT)
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
435. serialteg
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:17 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:
The W Pacific systems have so much MORE latent heat energy readily availiable than their Atlantic conterparts! Thousands of miles of deep ocean averaging 85F!! That extra energy translates into more convection, over a larger area, larger storms!!

In the Atlantic, we rate our storms at a 1 MIN max wind speed!! Another word a CAT 3 w/115 MPH winds in the Atlantic has 115MPH winds for 1 minute in a portion of the storm!!

The Japanese Meteorological Service, their typhoons are a 10 MIN max speed!! So if Typhoon Katsana has 75MPH winds, there measured for 10 minutes in portions of the storm!! There may well be 110MPH winds for 1 minute in that storm, maybe more!!!


Borondaro!!! Exclamation points!!!
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
434. tornadodude
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:02 (GMT)
so, the temperature has risen 4 degrees in the last couple of hours, and the pressure has dropped 4 millibars, from 1000 to 996
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
433. Cavin Rawlins
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 05:02 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well many of the names from 2004-2005 have been replaced in the Atlantic basin.


9 of 42 names...we'll being alot of familiar names, especially Emily.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
432. Magicchaos
28. syyskuuta 2009 klo 04:59 (GMT)
11PM Advisory from JTWC:

Typhoon Ketsana
15.8N 112.4E
Winds:75 MPH
Movement:W at 7 MPH
Pressure:975MB



Tropical Depression 18W
9.5N 155.2E
Winds:35 MPH
Movement:SW at 7 MPH
Pressure:1004 MB



Tropical Depression 19W
9.4N 144.0E
Winds:35 MPH
Movement:W at 10 MPH
Pressure:1002 MB



Winds are 1-min sustained
(Pressures are from JMA)
Member Since: 3.04.2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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