Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Massive duststorm chokes eastern Australia; Atlanta floods ease
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:22 (GMT) +5
A massive dust storm swept through eastern Australia today, turning the skies in Sydney a eerie shade of red-orange. The dust storm was reportedly the worst since the 1940s, and Sydney recorded its highest levels of particulate air pollution ever. The dust storm resulted from strong winds associated with a powerful low pressure system that swept through eastern Australia this morning. Winds today at the Sydney airport were sustained at 36 mph, gusting to 51 mph. Wind gusts as high as 64 mph were recorded in the Sydney area as the storm's strong cold front passed through. Particulate pollution levels are still in the hazardous range this evening in Sydney, but are expected to improve to the "good" range on Thursday as the winds die down and the dust storm dissipates.


Figure 1.. Strong northwesterly winds carry dust over Sydney, Australia, at 00 UTC 9/23/2009. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2.. A strong cold front passing through eastern Australia this morning generated a sustained winds in excess of 20 mph over a large portion of the region.

Severe drought has affected large regions of Southeast Australia over the past three years (Figure 3). In isolated areas near Melbourne, the drought is the worst on record. The resulting loss of vegetation has created large regions of loose dust, which the strong winds from this week's storm was able to loft in the air and transport long distances.


Figure 3.. Rainfall deficiencies for Australia for the past three years. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Atlanta floods ease
Very heavy rains exceeding fifteen inches soaked the Atlanta, Georgia region early this week, triggering widespread major flooding that continues today. Rainfall eased yesterday, and all of the rivers in the Atlanta area have crested and are now falling. Record flood levels were observed on at least seven rivers and creeks in the Atlanta area yesterday, breaking records that had been set as long ago as 1919. Utoy Creek near Atlanta broke its previous flood record by nearly 11 feet on Tuesday. The floods have killed at least nine people and did $250 million in damage. Portlight.org is experimenting with a new disaster relief strategy for this flood--they have decided to adopt a single family to help, the Baxter family of Lithia Springs, Georgia. The Baxters lost their home, car, furniture, clothes, and everything else in their house, and need assistance to defray the short-term expenses of lodging, food, and clothing, so help out if you can.


Figure 4. Radar estimated rainfall for the Atlanta, Georgia region ending on September 22. More than 15 inches (white colors) had fallen in and around Atlanta.

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of our reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters
Parkinson Avenue 06:15 (LNRSYDNEY)
Unusual sunrise 1
Parkinson Avenue 06:15
Categories: Drought
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51. AussieStorm 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:35 (GMT)    
Quoting hcubed:


"...red sky in morning, sailors take warning..."

Red sky all day, aussies can't play...

lol. Very good
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13317
52. hcubed 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:35 (GMT)    
Did tacoman (stormtop/stormkat/stormno/stormt) get banned?

Went through an entire blog with no comments. Said he was off to run some errands, and never returned.

I know some people ignore him, but every blog needs comic relief.
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639
53. hcubed 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:38 (GMT)    
Can't very well use the second half: "...red sky at night, sailors delight..."
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639
54. AussieStorm 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:38 (GMT)    
Mixed rainfall outlook for the December quarter

The national outlook for rainfall over the December quarter (October to December) shows a moderate shift in the odds favouring a drier than normal season across parts of northeastern and southeastern Australia. On the other hand, the odds are shifted in favour of a wetter than normal season in western and central WA. It should be noted though, that the December quarter is a seasonally dry time of year in northwest WA, with heavy rain being uncommon.

The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Australia is a result of recent warm conditions in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Pacific influence (El Niño) dominates the outlook in eastern Australia, while the Indian Ocean has had a greater influence on the probabilities in WA.
probability of exceeding median rainfall -


The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for October to December are between 25 and 40% over northeast Queensland, parts of Victoria, southeast SA and Tasmania (see map). This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven years are expected to be drier than average over these regions, while about three or four years are wetter.

Contrasting this, the chance of a wetter than average conditions is between 60 and 75% for western and central parts of WA.

Across the rest of the country, including northern Victoria, NSW, NT, much of SA and eastern WA, the chances of exceeding the median rainfall for October to December are between 40 and 60%, meaning that above average falls are about as equally likely as below average falls in these regions.

Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the October to December period, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent over much of the country (see background information).

An unusual El Niño event persists across the Pacific Basin, with most leading climate models forecasting the event to peak late in 2009. El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. The SOI is approximately +3 for the 30 days ending 19 September
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13317
56. Portlight 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:44 (GMT)    
Updated info on the Baxter family is available at the Portlight WU Blog...
Member Since: 7.01.2009 Posts: 90 Comments: 403
57. tropics21 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:46 (GMT)    
Quoting Floodman:


Nope...the Mayan calendar ends on the 21st...you're shorting us 9 days, man!
LoL Good Morning Floodman hope all is well. If i had a dollar for everytime the world was supposed to end during my lifetime so far I'd be Rich have a good day
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58. tropics21 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:47 (GMT)    
Morning StormW Hope your day is going well
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59. mobilegirl81 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:47 (GMT)    
Looks like a rogue gulf disturbance possible?
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61. weathermanwannabe 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:51 (GMT)    
Quoting StormW:
Greetings!

Hot off the press

Thanks Storm....You just about nailed the current conditions out there....WW
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6687
62. Cotillion 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:51 (GMT)    
More photos of the Australian dust storm.

Certainly do a good impression of a Martian colony in times to come.

As for the Mayans, I'm pretty sure I remember reading one of the emperors talking about a lasting empire mysteriously stopping in 4772AD.

Since they apparently got the invasion of the Europeans right, maybe that one's for Yellowstone!

(Still another 2,500 years of films based on an impending apocalypse. What fun. Hollywood will be pleased, a long-time source of material...)
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
64. GOLSUTIGERS 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:53 (GMT)    
Weathermanwannabe did you wife make it up to Rome yesterday?
Member Since: 25.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 37
65. mobilegirl81 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:55 (GMT)    
Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am...possible.

Good to here from ya, its been a while.
Member Since: 31.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
66. Floodman 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:01 (GMT)    
Quoting Bigguy675:


There is a televangelist that claims he's actually been able to use scripture and has calculated the last day of the world's existence is 5/21/11. I know this is a weather blog....and not a religious blog....but just thought I'd interject. So if you think that you're going to lose 9 days from the Mayan calendar, you're gonna lose a whole lot more if the evangelist (Harold Camping) is correct. Which I personally believe he is wrong. Ok....back to work.


Willaim Miller, one of the founding lights iof the 7th Day Adventists preached that the world would end (or rather, the Milleniuum begin) sometime in 1843; his congregation pushed him on it so he predicted that it would happen beween 3-21-1843 and 3-21-1844...these guys have been at it for quite a while
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
67. FloridaTigers 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:03 (GMT)    
Sheesh, its been a boring tracking season. Atleast there have been no devastating landfalls.
Member Since: 17.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559
69. tornadodude 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:03 (GMT)    
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Sep 23, 11:54 am EDT

Fair

76 °F
(24 °C)
Humidity: 62 %
Wind Speed: Vrbl 3 MPH
Barometer: 30.15" (1020.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 62 °F (17 °C)
Heat Index: 78 °F (26 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
71. weathermanwannabe 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:09 (GMT)    
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:
Weathermanwannabe did you wife make it up to Rome yesterday?


Thanks for asking; she postponed her departure until today, to allow for the rain to subside, and just left the house in Tallahassee 15 minutes ago. The radar loops looks clear up I-75 from Florida to Rome so I told her to stay off the "loops/connectors" and just ride out I-75 all the way up. She presents tommorow morning and I know she will hit traffic near Atlanta but should get in alright tonight to Rome.
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72. presslord 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:16 (GMT)    
...please correct me if I'm wrong...but...I think I'm sitting right in the middle of ex-Fred at the moment...
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73. TheCaneWhisperer 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:16 (GMT)    
The basin is rather active today in the convection department.
74. weathermanwannabe 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:17 (GMT)    
Quoting presslord:
...please correct me if I'm wrong...but...I think I'm sitting right in the middle of ex-Fred at the moment...


Looks that way....Just off the coast waiting to pounce on you!
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76. presslord 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:20 (GMT)    
my wife is whining that ex-Fred is gonna mess up her golf plans this afternoon...I, frankly, think golf is stupid...but...my wife thinks I'm stupid...so I guess we're even...
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77. tornadodude 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:23 (GMT)    
Quoting presslord:
my wife is whining that ex-Fred is gonna mess up her golf plans this afternoon...I, frankly, think golf is stupid...but...my wife thinks I'm stupid...so I guess we're even...


haha I thought female's were always "right"?
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
78. weathermanwannabe 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:23 (GMT)    
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The basin is rather active today in the convection department.


Yup; convection and sheer everywhere.........
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79. Floodman 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:25 (GMT)    
Quoting presslord:
my wife is whining that ex-Fred is gonna mess up her golf plans this afternoon...I, frankly, think golf is stupid...but...my wife thinks I'm stupid...so I guess we're even...


Oddly, we seem to be in the same position, press...I have one up on you, though...my wife and my stepdaughter think I'm stupid; we won't talk about what my kids think...too depressing to contemplate

LOL
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
80. tkeith 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:34 (GMT)    
Quoting presslord:
my wife is whining that ex-Fred is gonna mess up her golf plans this afternoon...I, frankly, think golf is stupid...but...my wife thinks I'm stupid...so I guess we're even...
Presslords wife is a very astute lady...I trust her observations...lol.

:)
Member Since: 1.11.2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839
81. Floodman 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:51 (GMT)    
Quoting tkeith:
Presslords wife is a very astute lady...I trust her observations...lol.

:)


LOL

Spoken like a true smart a$$
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919
82. presslord 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:52 (GMT)    
and you, Flood, are astute, as well...
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83. JRRP 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:54 (GMT)    
personally i think we will see 4 or 5 name storms
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84. jaxbeachbum 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:55 (GMT)    
I just posted the Portlight effort on my facebook status. I know I have clothes that can be donated to help this family. Truly heart-wrenching.

Quoting Portlight:
Updated info on the Baxter family is available at the Portlight WU Blog...
Member Since: 20.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
85. MisterJohnny 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 16:56 (GMT)    
The pictures of the Australian dust storms looks like the dust storms in Iraq
86. presslord 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:00 (GMT)    
jax...Thanks!!!
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87. IKE 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:00 (GMT)    
Looking at the long-range 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF, I would be surprised with anything beyond 2 more named systems in the Atlantic and that may be a stretch.

Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
88. jaxbeachbum 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:05 (GMT)    
Everyone who is on facebook or myspace should do this! I'm sure there are more people on those social sites than here since the season is slow.

Quoting presslord:
jax...Thanks!!!
Member Since: 20.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
89. presslord 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:08 (GMT)    
Everyone who is on facebook or myspace should do this! I'm sure there are more people on those social sites than here since the season is slow.


Amen! Amen! and...Amen!

Forward...post...and spam to your hearts' content...
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90. PcolaDan 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:11 (GMT)    
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91. litestar 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:13 (GMT)    
Good moring Storm. Iam on other side of state from you. Please tell me how long I will have rain or damp weather? this is causing a great deal of pain. thanks Star
92. presslord 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:16 (GMT)    
Statement as of 10:49 AM EDT on September 23, 2009

... Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM EDT this
afternoon...

A coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM EDT this
afternoon.

Elevated tides will continue to impact south coastal South
Carolina today. Tide levels are expected to reach 7.0 to 7.2 ft
mean lower low water in the Charleston Harbor with the next high
tide. These levels typically produce shallow coastal flooding up
and down the lower South Carolina coast... particularly in the
downtown Charleston area and along the Charleston County coast.
Rainfall combined with the higher tides may allow for shallow
coastal flooding to develop along the Colleton... Beaufort and
Jasper County coastlines and may exacerbate shallow coastal
flooding concerns for the Charleston County coastline.

High tide will occur at 1208 PM in the Charleston Harbor and
124 PM in the Beaufort river near Beaufort.
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93. Dakster 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:19 (GMT)    
Aussiestorm - is the most popular song on the radio, Hazy Shade of Winter by the Bangles???

I always thought it was:

Red at Night Sailor's Delight, Red in the Day, Australians Dismay.
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94. weathermanwannabe 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:20 (GMT)    
Quoting IKE:
Looking at the long-range 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF, I would be surprised with anything beyond 2 more named systems in the Atlantic and that may be a stretch.



Very interesting conversations yesterday about low activity in all the basins this particular year.......Agree with some of the folks that El Nino may not be the only reason but I suspect that the pros/scientists will be writing papers very soon trying to figure the reasons/factors behind this overall slow activity this year.......Need to subscribe to the Journal of Atmospheric Science this year to even begin to get a handle on the issue.
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95. Dakster 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:22 (GMT)    
Press: You need clothes?

I got a TON of toddler to young kids clothes to donate. I might be limited by how much money I can spend to ship them....
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932
96. Dakster 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:24 (GMT)    
Quoting Floodman:


Willaim Miller, one of the founding lights iof the 7th Day Adventists preached that the world would end (or rather, the Milleniuum begin) sometime in 1843; his congregation pushed him on it so he predicted that it would happen beween 3-21-1843 and 3-21-1844...these guys have been at it for quite a while


Too bad everyone is wrong, the real year is 5770 anyways...
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932
97. IKE 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:25 (GMT)    
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Very interesting conversations yesterday about low activity in all the basins this particular year.......Agree with some of the folks that El Nino may not be the only reason but I suspect that the pros/scientists will be writing papers very soon trying to figure the reasons/factors behind this overall slow activity this year.......Need to subscribe to the Journal of Atmospheric Science this year to even begin to get a handle on the issue.


I think the cause is El Nino in the Atlantic basin.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
98. AussieStorm 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:25 (GMT)    
Quoting Dakster:
Aussiestorm - is the most popular song on the radio, Hazy Shade of Winter by the Bangles???

I always thought it was:

Red at Night Sailor's Delight, Red in the Day, Australians Dismay.

Its spring here not winter...lol
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13317
99. presslord 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:26 (GMT)    
Quoting Dakster:
Press: You need clothes?

I got a TON of toddler to young kids clothes to donate. I might be limited by how much money I can spend to ship them....



Hey! You have WU mail...
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100. JRRP 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:27 (GMT)    

i am out
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101. Dakster 23. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:27 (GMT)    
Aussie - Can't blame a guy for trying though...

I bet they are filming the Mars Lander footage at the moment. Maybe even a pre-emptive video of man's first mission to mars.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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