A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:21 (GMT)

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The remains of Hurricane Fred continue to generate sporadic bursts of heavy thunderstorm activity over the middle Atlantic Ocean. These thunderstorms were generating winds up to 35 mph, according to this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Dry air and high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots today and Wednesday will continue to prevent regeneration of Fred. By Thursday, the chances for regeneration of Fred increase, since wind shear near Fred's remains will fall below 20 knots. However, continued high wind shear and dry air over the next two days will further disrupt the remains of Fred, and there may not be enough left of the storm to regenerate from by the time the wind shear drops. The NOGAPS model forecasts that Fred could regenerate by Sunday, when the remains of the storm will be approaching the Bahama Islands.

Satellite imagery shows a small circulation associated with a tropical wave about 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands. Heavy thunderstorms activity has increased in this region over the past day. However, wind shear is near 20 knots, which is marginal for development, and shear will increase to near 30 knots as the wave progresses west-northwest into a band of high wind shear that lies to its north. It is unlikely that this wave can develop into a tropical depression this week, and NHC is giving it a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from the Bahamas northeastward. Anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature, and would likely move northeastward out to sea.

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa early next week.


Figure 1. The remains of Hurricane Fred (left) appears as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the northwest side. A tropical wave is 200 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands (right), off the coast of Africa. This wave is probably under too much wind shear to develop.

A flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 20 years later
The events of September 15, 1989, have affected me more deeply than those of any other day in my life. The fifteen members of our crew very nearly became the first of Hurricane Hugo's many victims, and I am still grappling twenty years later with the emotional fallout from the experience. (If you are troubled by a traumatic experience, you may want to consider EMDR therapy, which I found to be helpful). The process of writing the story of that flight was also very therapeutic, and I worked intermittently for six years on the story while I was working towards my Ph.D. For those of you who haven't read it, do so! I worked very hard on it, and it is a remarkable story.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 15, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

The Hurricane Hunters often carry reporters and camera crews on their flights, and the unlucky soul on our flight through Hurricane Hugo was young Janice Griffith of the Barbados Sun newspaper. Her account:

Horror of Hugo's Eye
TO a young reporter, with perhaps more journalistic curiosity than is good for her, it seemed a chance for a good story. To others, who were quick to tell me so, a flight into the centre of a powerful and dangerous hurricane was "sheer madness".

In the end, my journey Friday on a "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft with a hardened, professional crew was nerve-shattering, awesome, and unforgettable. When we limped back into Grantley Adams International after a beating from nature's fury in the form of Hurricane Hugo, I had my story. But I also had to agree that I must have been crazy to have gone in the first place.

Not that I wasn't forewarned.

You sure you want to go?" Dr. James McFadden, manager of the airborne science programmes of the United States Department of Commerce and head of the team asked when I raised the subject following their arrival from their Miami base on Thursday night. "It can be a very dangerous trip".

I wasn't fazed. After all, I'd flown a lot on commercial aircraft, from LIAT to large jumbo jets, and these hurricane hunter were experts who, I was assured, had been in the business of tracking storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean for a dozen years or more. Some had even been at it for 18.

They'd all been through and gone into the eyes of dozens of hurricanes and come back to tell the tale. Not even apprehensive as I, the only woman along with 10 men, boarded just before noon Friday and was shown to one of the four seats in the cockpit, just behind pilot Gerry McKim.

No hostess coming through with complimentary drinks here--or clicking on a seat belt. I was harnessed in like an infant in the rear seat of a car, waist and shoulders securely strapped. "Just in case", I was told.

While I observed, wide-eyed, everyone went about his business with the facility of someone who has done it all before a hundred times over--the pilot and co-pilot, Lowell Genzlinger, the flight engineer, the navigator, the weather experts. Everyone.

Calming effect
Their efficiency had a calming effect and the first half-hour or so, as we headed northeast to investigate and report on the details of Hugo's size and power, was no rougher than any commercial flight I've been on.

But then the sky began to close in with heavy, dark clouds and the 14-year old turboprop plane began to take the kind of buffeting it must have done several times during similar sorties.

The crew treated it all as a matter of course, getting on with their duties, checking radar and charts, communicating their information to headquarters in Miami, doing the other chores that seemed to keep everyone busy.

My notebook tells me we caught up with Hugo at 1:28 pm. For the next hour or so, I wondered why we ever tried--and I got the distinct impression almost everyone aboard wondered that too.

We were surrounded by clouds a dark gray, almost blue, color. The rain pelted down on the fuselage with an intensity that was deafening, like torrential rain on a galvanized roof and with a force that, it was later discovered, burst a small hole in the roof of the fuselage. When it was visible, the sea was almost black, like bubbling tar.

The computer print-out that had registered the wind speed from the time we took off peaked at 185 mph around this time.

We entered the eye--the area of low pressure that is completely calm and marks the centre of the hurricane--at an altitude of about 5,000 feet. Suddenly, my stomach seemed to become detached from my body as as the place dropped, I was told later, to 1,500 feet.

All hell seemed to break loose around and back of me. Briefcases, cups, soda-cans, books, anything unsecured came clattering down. The air conditioning shut down as did the radar and the weather computer. I just gripped the nearest arm and held on for dear life, realizing now why we had all been strapped in so tightly.

"That's unusual", flight engineer Steve Wade said when McKim and Genzlinger got back control of their plane. His attempt at sounding cool was father futile.

Dr. McFadden, a stocky man with gray beard and spectacles, came through, checking on us. He was visibly shaken.

"Everyone alright?" he inquired. We were but his face mirrored his concern when he told me: "This is the worst experience in all of our years going into a hurricane".

Soon there was to be even more. It was discovered that engine No. 3--the near right-side--had conked out. The pilots reported it was on fire and they had to shut it down. Another one was working but not at full capacity.

My life, I knew, rested in the skilled and experienced hands, and heads, of those in control of this wonderful piece of machinery. But, to tell the truth, I was never overcome by fear or panic. Somehow, I sensed all would be well.

Perhaps if I'd known more it would have been different, for we still had to find our way back out of the eye, to penetrate the wall again, and to gain elevation. To do that, on reduced power, meant jettisoning 7,000 of our 10,000 pounds of fuel to lighten the load and circling for an eternal hour while this was done.

Finally, a "weak spot" was found in the cloud formation and we could make an exit from the prison of the eye where we had been trapped for a frightening hour. Around us, winds were now registering 155 knots, and the plane was still being hammered by the weather.

But we were out of the eye and Dr. McFadden, in jubilant relief, exclaimed: "Let's get out of here". He echoed the feeling of everyone aboard.

The system engineer, Schricker ("that's it, don't worry about the first name", he said when I pressed) was more explicit. "I've been flying for 18 years and I don't think I want to fly again," he said.

As we got out of Hugo's clutches and left him to make his way towards the eastern Caribbean, Dr. McFadden put the experience in perspective for me. "You didn't really know what you went through," he said as we headed back to Grantley Adams, itching to back on Terra Firma. "We almost didn't get out of the eye. We almost didn't make it. It was a serious situation".

I believed him--and couldn't help wonder at the bravery of these men who so frequently risk their lives so that others may be saved from the destruction of the storms that head across the Atlantic annually between June and November.

They were working at Grantley Adams yesterday on getting that engine back into shape so that they could be ready the next time another one comes along.

They must be crazy!


Figure 3. An account of the September 15, 1989 flight through Hurricane Hugo posted by reporter Janice Griffith in the Barbados Sun newspaper.

Comments on Janice's story
The rain didn't really punch a hole the fuselage of our airplane as Janice reported. Also, we penetrated the eyewall at 1,500 feet, and dropped to 880 feet during the extreme turbulence in the eyewall. Other than that, Janice has the facts pretty well in hand, particularly the "They must be crazy!" part. Three of us--myself, radio operator Tom Nunn, and electronic engineer Terry Schricker--never flew again on a hurricane hunter mission. However, four members of that flight--Hurricane Field Program Manager Dr. Jim McFadden, Chief Systems Engineer Alan Goldstein, Navigator (now flight meteorologist) Sean White, and the director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, Frank Marks--continue to fly into hurricanes to this day.

I caught up with Janice Griffith via email last year, when I invited her to a "Hurricane Hugo survivors luncheon" for the twelve people from that flight who are still alive (alas, radio operator Tom Nunn, electronic engineer Neil Rain, and chief scientist Dr. Bob Burpee have passed on). Six of us got together at a hurricane conference in Orlando. Janice is still working as a reporter in Barbados, and couldn't make it. Her email to me:

"Nice Hearing from you.
Well after that trip into the eye of Hurricane Hugo,
I certainly will not be going on another.
We almost lost our lives.
And whenever I think about it...I just get some shivers".

Jeff Masters

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1518. JRRP
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:55 (GMT)
the clouds is moving SE to NW here in santo domingo
and
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5085
1517. ElConando
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


My apologies Tim.. I didn't see the question (must be my old age), all I saw was a statement.

"Morning everyone...Weather456 is correct about the area south of Puerto Rico....but, its not an ULL...it's at the Mid-levels"



I'm gonna guess new blog :P
Member Since: 6.09.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
1516. Orcasystems
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


AS_Hol_ i was not correcting 456, i was a question of asking....YOU ARE such a...you figure it out!


My apologies Tim.. I didn't see the question (must be my old age), all I saw was a statement.

"Morning everyone...Weather456 is correct about the area south of Puerto Rico....but, its not an ULL...it's at the Mid-levels"

Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1515. reedzone
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Fred has 0000% chance of regeneration. Get real people.


Now that's a PERFECT example of a true downcaster! ;)

There ya go people!
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1514. Greyelf
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:44 (GMT)
New blog.
Member Since: 5.06.2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
1513. reedzone
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:43 (GMT)
The ULL is in fact trying to work it's way down to the low levels, very little vorticity has formed on the 850 mlb. map.

Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1512. Cavin Rawlins
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Quoting BobinTampa:


I believe Ike said the outlook for Fred was grim. Does anyone disagree with that? Do you think it looks promising? How is that 'downcasting'?




Here's downcasting,

picking and choosing information that best suits your needs.

looking for only data that suggest a system is going out to sea.

Ignoring models that take a system towards land and believe those that take it out to sea despite the the models that take out to sea are not verifying.

It is not downcasting anymore, that's downright bias.

As I said before, you just gotta be reasonable despite your views about tropical cyclones. Me myself like to track tropical cyclones but never doubt Fred would be rip to threads by shear.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1510. TampaSpin
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting Nolehead:
morning...um..did everyone get up on the wrong side of the bed this morning?? alot of fighting over nothing...lol!!


No fighting here at all....Orca can't keep his nose out of others business without being a smartas- all the time.....i guess he owns this blog!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1509. reedzone
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:41 (GMT)
I've noticed the NHC dropped Invest Fred (again). They need to keep it, there just not doing good this year with the exception of Bill.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1508. Nolehead
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:38 (GMT)
morning...um..did everyone get up on the wrong side of the bed this morning?? alot of fighting over nothing...lol!!
Member Since: 3.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1923
1507. TampaSpin
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:39 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Tampa,

the greatest vorticity is clearly at 200 mb. It is an upper low that extends downward some. Upper lows are cold core system with the greatest intensity in the upper levels and weaken downwards. Just becuz we see weak vorticity at 500 mb and 700 mb it does not mean its a mid-level low. It is where the greatest vorticity at.


Thanks 456! My understanding of what i considered MId-level vs. yours was different....Thanks. Either way as you put, it also, it sure appears to be trying to work its way to the surface....need to watch this the next couple of days......this as you know is a slow transition.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1506. reedzone
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:37 (GMT)
The downcasters I get angry at it are the ones who have no knowledge and like to mess with people. The people who say "nothing will happen, Hurricane Season is closed!". IKE is NOT one of those, I do respect his opinions because he bases them with information.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1505. reedzone
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Quoting BobinTampa:


I believe Ike said the outlook for Fred was grim. Does anyone disagree with that? Do you think it looks promising? How is that 'downcasting'?



He said Fred is dead, that's a downcast. I'm not angry at him, I totally understand why he does it, but he should limit the RIPing and downcasting do to crazy people on here.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1504. TampaSpin
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, now thats funny... you trying to correct Weather 456


AS_Hol_ i was not correcting 456, i was a question of asking....YOU ARE such a...you figure it out!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1503. BobinTampa
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


I'm sorry IKE, but Weather456 has a point. You downcast every system, Fred is still a long time away from destruction, can still organize if it gets to the Bahamas. Calling this dead was premature. Anyone RIPing Fred is premature. Give it time, Fred may or may not do anything. Downcasting the system won't do anything but get people on here mad. Although, nobody wants a Hurricane, some people do, and there most likely kids and have not experienced a Hurricane like you and I. Ivan and Dennis was no joke IKE, I feel you're pain on that. I went through Charley and Frances here in Northeast/Central Florida. I understand why you downcast storms, but please keep it limited on here, you're gonna get people active.
Point is, Fred can redevelop at any time, systems like this have surprised people. It still needs to be watched.


I believe Ike said the outlook for Fred was grim. Does anyone disagree with that? Do you think it looks promising? How is that 'downcasting'?

Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
1502. reedzone
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:29 (GMT)
Quoting IKE:
What I said about the GOM blob....

(1)"I smell an invest coming"... when pressures were dropping at buoy 42002...didn't happen.

(2)I gave it a "45-50% chance of developing"...didn't happen.

That's what I said about the GOM blob.


I'm sorry IKE, but Weather456 has a point. You downcast every system, Fred is still a long time away from destruction, can still organize if it gets to the Bahamas. Calling this dead was premature. Anyone RIPing Fred is premature. Give it time, Fred may or may not do anything. Downcasting the system won't do anything but get people on here mad. Although, nobody wants a Hurricane, some people do, and there most likely kids and have not experienced a Hurricane like you and I. Ivan and Dennis was no joke IKE, I feel you're pain on that. I went through Charley and Frances here in Northeast/Central Florida. I understand why you downcast storms, but please keep it limited on here, you're gonna get people active.
Point is, Fred can redevelop at any time, systems like this have surprised people. It still needs to be watched.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1501. Cavin Rawlins
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:


Yea...once we see vorticity at 850 mb, that will be an indication it's trying to work down. Also, did you notice anything on the graphic? The low is flowing outward instead of toward the center.


weird?
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1500. Cavin Rawlins
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:22 (GMT)
Tampa,

the greatest vorticity is clearly at 200 mb. It is an upper low that extends downward some. Upper lows are cold core system with the greatest intensity in the upper levels and weaken downwards. Just becuz we see weak vorticity at 500 mb and 700 mb it does not mean its a mid-level low. It is where the greatest vorticity at.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1499. matondana
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:19 (GMT)
I THINK SOMETIMES SOME OF THE WEATHER SERVICES ARE DISAPPOINTING THAT NO ONE HAS HAD TO EVACUATE THIS YEAR ALONG THE GULF COAST BECAUSE OF HURRICANES. WE WERE DUE FOR A BREAK THIS YEAR! I EVEN BOUGHT PROPERTY 365 FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL IN TEXAS SO I WOULD HAVE A PLACE TO GO. THE NUTS ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL ARE HERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN RAINCOATS JUST HOPING SOMEONE WILL LOOSE SOMETHING!! ALL THEY HAVE TO DO IS REPORT THE WEATHER LIKE WUNDERGROUND AND WE CAN SEE THE REST!! THANKS WUNDERGROUND FOR YOUR UNBIASED WEATHER!

A TIRED OF MOVING CAJUN!
Member Since: 24.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1498. TampaSpin
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


Its an upper low

it extends to the upper levels but yes it seems to be trying very hard. For one its a tight upper low not a broad one.



THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO.


Do you consider 700mb ULL or MidLevel.....i always consider that MidLevel as you can see from the 700mb Vorticity below...its sorta i guess in between Mid to ULL.

850mb

700mb

500mb

200mb
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1496. Orcasystems
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:15 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone...Weather456 is correct about the area south of Puerto Rico....but, its not an ULL...it's at the Mid-levels and appears to be trying very hard to work its way down to the surface.....if you look at this loop, one can see how Thunderstorms are trying to wrap around the center of circulation (COC)! I think by sometime late tomorrow we could have a surface low...may not be complete warm core yet but, it might be close to it.


ROFLMAO, now thats funny... you trying to correct Weather 456
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1495. TampaSpin
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:12 (GMT)
X-Fred is a mess mixed up with the ULL sitting on top of it....crazy!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1494. Cavin Rawlins
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:10 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone...Weather456 is correct about the area south of Puerto Rico....but, its not an ULL...it's at the Mid-levels and appears to be trying very hard to work its way down to the surface.....if you look at this loop, one can see how Thunderstorms are trying to wrap around the center of circulation (COC)! I think by sometime late tomorrow we could have a surface low...may not be complete warm core yet but, it might be close to it.







Its an upper low

it extends to the upper levels but yes it seems to be trying very hard. For one its a tight upper low not a broad one.



THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1493. TampaSpin
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:08 (GMT)
Yesterday i don't believe there was nothing showing up at the 700mb Vorticity South of PR....Now there is some.

Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1492. alaina1085
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:10 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone...Weather456 is correct about the area south of Puerto Rico....but, its not an ULL...it's at the Mid-levels and appears to be trying very hard to work its way down to the surface.....if you look at this loop, one can see how Thunderstorms are trying to wrap around the center of circulation (COC)! I think by sometime late tomorrow we could have a surface low...may not be complete warm core yet but, it might be close to it.







Thanks for the images. You can definately see the spin.
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1491. Magicchaos
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:07 (GMT)
AOI near 5S 95E a LOW(10-25%) chance of tropical development in the next 72 hours.

This is based on current conditions.

(this AOI is mentioned in the JTWC Signifcant Tropical Weather Advisory)
Member Since: 3.04.2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
1490. GeoffreyWPB
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10587
1489. TampaSpin
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:02 (GMT)
Morning everyone...Weather456 is correct about the area south of Puerto Rico....but, its not an ULL...it's at the Mid-levels and appears to be trying very hard to work its way down to the surface.....if you look at this loop, one can see how Thunderstorms are trying to wrap around the center of circulation (COC)! I think by sometime late tomorrow we could have a surface low...may not be complete warm core yet but, it might be close to it.





Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1488. superpete
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:01 (GMT)
W456..thank's for the detail on the mentioned E Carib' feature.
Member Since: 10.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
1487. Tazmanian
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Quoting stormpetrol:

Morning , weak closed low near 13/33? exFred is an open wave now?



yes fred is a open wave
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
1486. surfsidesindy
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:00 (GMT)
Thanks 456...I just need to find an hour to read it now!
Member Since: 7.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
1484. CaicosRetiredSailor
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:58 (GMT)
Image centered at Latitude= 31.21° N Longitude= 72.65°




Good Morning.
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
1483. stoormfury
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:57 (GMT)
is that a surface low in the eastern gomex


Link
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
1482. Tazmanian
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:57 (GMT)
Quoting Magicchaos:
My thoughts:

AOI near 30N 73W a LOW(10-25%) chance of tropical development in the next 72 hours.

AOI near 20N 50W (ex-Fred) a MEDIUM(40-55%) chance of tropical development in the next 72 hours.

AOI near 17N 30W a FAIR(25-40%) chance of tropical development in the next 72 hours.

These are based on current conditions.




AOI near 20N 50W (ex-Fred) a MEDIUM(40-55%) chance of tropical development



fred is gone its now a open wave
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
1481. surfsidesindy
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:56 (GMT)
Quoting thelmores:
Not buying the Nogaps solution for whats left of Fred..... unless all that is left is a wave.....

If Fred is a storm, it will take a turn up the coast. Jax/Savannah perhaps........ East coast of Central Florida seems unlikely........ but if it did happen, it would be VERY unusual, if not unprecedented!


From last night...are we looking at an open wave now?
Member Since: 7.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
1480. stormpetrol
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:56 (GMT)

Morning , weak closed low near 13/33? exFred is an open wave now?
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1477. Cavin Rawlins
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:51 (GMT)
Quoting surfsidesindy:


CloudSat's image of Choi-Wan late Sept. 14 showed hot towers on both sides of the eyewall (bright red bands) in the Aqua satellite AMSR-E instrument 89 GHz image. Image also shows an enclosed eye wall (red circle) around the center with orange and red reflectivities (intense convection and precipitation) extending outwards.
Credit: NASA JPL/Colo. State


Yesterday
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1476. Orcasystems
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:49 (GMT)
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1475. hercj
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:47 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


They have some validity to them since the upper environment improves somewhat over the next few days.

The area south of Puerto Rico currently does not have any associated surface feature. Much of this is being caused by upper diffluence south of the ridge. The area will be monitored as the upper low shifts west. The first sign of development would be the development of a surface trough.

Thanks, 456. You have a great blog.
Member Since: 5.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
1474. Cavin Rawlins
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:46 (GMT)
Quoting hercj:
weather 456, Any clue if the models predicting Fred's regeneration have any validity to them?
Quoting superpete:
Good Morning, 456..what is your analysis of the feature mentioned ( area of low pressure) just south of PR, with respect to development in the near term ?Many thanks


They have some validity to them since the upper environment improves somewhat over the next several days. However, as suspected, Fred may not regenerate on its own, there is still the possibility it interacts with another feature. Still not too hot on that latter scenario but its a possibility that exists.

The area south of Puerto Rico currently does not have any associated surface feature. Much of this is being caused by upper diffluence south of the upper low. The area will be monitored as the upper low shifts west. The first sign of development would be the development of a surface trough.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1473. Magicchaos
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:44 (GMT)
My thoughts:

AOI near 30N 73W a LOW(10-25%) chance of tropical development in the next 72 hours.

AOI near 20N 50W (ex-Fred) a MEDIUM(40-55%) chance of tropical development in the next 72 hours.

AOI near 17N 30W a FAIR(25-40%) chance of tropical development in the next 72 hours.

These are based on current conditions.
Member Since: 3.04.2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
1472. surfsidesindy
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:43 (GMT)
From what I've read Choi-Wan is forecast to go East of Japan and then out to sea?
Member Since: 7.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
1471. weathermanwannabe
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:43 (GMT)
If FredEX were to hold on, I doubt that it would make it all the way to Florida, or the Gulf, with that trof sitting over the Bahamas right now........
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8305
1470. superpete
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:43 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning again

Tropical Update
Good Morning, 456..what is your analysis of the feature mentioned ( area of low pressure) just south of PR, with respect to development in the near term ?Many thanks
Member Since: 10.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
1469. stoormfury
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:41 (GMT)
there is still a hugh cyclonic turning with the remnants of Fred. and the possibility is still there for regeneration
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
1468. IKE
16. syyskuuta 2009 klo 12:39 (GMT)
What I said about the GOM blob....

(1)"I smell an invest coming"... when pressures were dropping at buoy 42002...didn't happen.

(2)I gave it a "45-50% chance of developing"...didn't happen.

That's what I said about the GOM blob.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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