The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:11 (GMT)

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1894. tramp96
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 17:12 (GMT)
Quoting indianrivguy:


I cannot speak for a hurricane, but we were rocking a constant 20 occasionally to 30+ degrees at 120 feet in the north atlantic once. We proceeded back down and sailed for a couple of days before coming up again.

I was aboard the USS Silversides during her SINS acceptance test 1972 where you are required to stay on the surface. In a Noreaster' we constantly rocked 30+ degrees sometimes to 40-45 deg for three days straight. Everyone was sick, some were sedated to prevent further dehydration. Most miserable I ever was at sea.


On an episode of The Deadliest Catch they were showing how the film crews fared. One guy got so bad he was having convultions and they had to call the coast gaurd to get him in a helicopter.
Member Since: 15.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
1893. Stormchaser2007
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
10 am Tropical update.





Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1891. TampaSpin
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Pressure is down 5-8mb lower now than 24hrs ago at this same time in the area off the Carolinas.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1890. lawntonlookers
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:55 (GMT)
Quoting Acemmett90:

i hope you mean counter clock wise otherwise this would be a weirder storm than erika


No I am referring to the upper level outflow bands. This upper level outflow circulates in an anticyclonic direction and is termed the anticyclonic jet once the cane is formed.
Member Since: 22.03.2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
1889. AllStar17
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:53 (GMT)
If it materializes, I would be very concerned with the GOM distubance.
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1888. Cavin Rawlins
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:51 (GMT)
Quoting AllStar17:


I just seriously hope that is is not an extremely slow mover....or else rapid intensification would be possible to likely under favorable conditions with that hot tub-like water.


3 day average

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1887. mikatnight
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:51 (GMT)
No rain on us yesterday, but we got a good downpour now – as evidenced by WU’s hi-def radar…

Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1886. hurricane23
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Not overly impressive by 96L's sat ippearance this morning,regardless this system likely still remains a non issue for the islands and eastcoast.

adrian
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
1885. TampaSpin
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:49 (GMT)
1884. AllStar17
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


yea it does,

but I'm actually looking to the more reliable models like the GFS and ECMWF, both show a low pressure developing over the GOM. While we cannot discount anything at the peak of the hurricane season (Claudette); i would wait until a low pressure feature actually comes up before I can say development. We now know that the models are showing something, now the most we can do is watch.


I just seriously hope that is is not an extremely slow mover....or else rapid intensification would be possible to likely under favorable conditions with that hot tub-like water.
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1883. Cavin Rawlins
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:48 (GMT)
and the models are showing vorticity and yet barely any close isobars.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1882. hurricanemaniac123
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Here's the invests so far this year:

1st round:

90L is ??

91L is TD 1

92L is bust?

93L is bust

94L is bust

95L skipped

96L skipped

97L is bust

98L is bust

99L is Ana

Second Round:

90L is Bill

91L is Claudette

92L is Danny

93L is Jimena (E. Pacific)

94L is Erika

95L is bust?

96L is possible TD 7 and Fred
Member Since: 21.09.2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
1881. Orcasystems
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting AllStar17:
Atlantic showing some spark today.

In my obs. we have 3 AOIs:

1 - 96L

2 - Carolina's disturbance

3 - BOC/GOM disturbance


I would have to agree :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Same ones I picked this morning
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1880. extreme236
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Quoting AllStar17:
Atlantic showing some spark today.

In my obs. we have 3 AOIs:

1 - 96L

2 - Carolina's disturbance

3 - BOC/GOM disturbance


Not to mention ex-95L is still around. GFS shows the low pressure with it persisting for about the next 72 hours.
Member Since: 2.08.2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1879. AllStar17
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Atlantic showing some spark today.

In my obs. we have 3 AOIs:

1 - 96L

2 - Carolina's disturbance

3 - BOC/GOM disturbance
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1878. Cavin Rawlins
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:45 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


456, have you noticed again this year.... the CMC is picking up systems early... then dropping them.. and then they happen. Prime example, this Carols one. The CMC originally detected it a few days ago... then dropped it..and now the rest of the models have it also.

A few days ago it modelled a system starting in the NE GOM, and going into the panhandle.. two of them actually.


yea it does,

but I'm actually looking to the more reliable models like the GFS and ECMWF, both show a low pressure developing over the GOM. While we cannot discount anything at the peak of the hurricane season (Claudette); i would wait until a low pressure feature actually comes up before I can say development. We now know that the models are showing something, now the most we can do is watch.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1877. AllStar17
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:46 (GMT)
Quoting dcoaster:


The center position isn't correct. It's an old position from CIMSS. The thing that is current is the satellite loop. I really despise METEOSAT for satellite loops in the eastern Atlantic.


OK...thanks for that clarification.
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1875. Dakster
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Hey Acemett - I was "wundering" where you were yesterday.

Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9709
1874. dcoaster
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:38 (GMT)
Quoting AllStar17:


No way that is where the center is. Models already would be way off if the center is there....which I definitely think it is not.


The center position isn't correct. It's an old position from CIMSS. The thing that is current is the satellite loop. I really despise METEOSAT for satellite loops in the eastern Atlantic.
1872. Orcasystems
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Regarding development in GOM,

a possible low pressure forming over the BOC and drifting north into Texas or Louisiana in 1 week. I'm not 100% sold on development as the low pressure appears weak and close to land. Just have to see what happens but 20% chance for now.



456, have you noticed again this year.... the CMC is picking up systems early... then dropping them.. and then they happen. Prime example, this Carols one. The CMC originally detected it a few days ago... then dropped it..and now the rest of the models have it also.

A few days ago it modelled a system starting in the NE GOM, and going into the panhandle.. two of them actually.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1870. Cavin Rawlins
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Quoting Acemmett90:
THE gfs Brings it to Montalk NY


notice it stalls for a few days

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1869. taco2me61
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Regarding development in GOM,

a possible low pressure forming over the BOC and drifting north into Texas or Louisiana in 1 week. I'm not 100% sold on development as the low pressure appears weak and close to land. Just have to see what happens but 20% chance for now.



Weather456 I think that is mid Level and not surface just yet.... Although I could be wrong... I am known to make mistakes....

Taco :0)
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3173
1867. Cavin Rawlins
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:31 (GMT)
Regarding development in GOM,

a possible low pressure forming over the BOC and drifting north into Texas or Louisiana in 1 week. I'm not 100% sold on development as the low pressure appears weak and close to land. Just have to see what happens but 20% chance for now.

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1866. Orcasystems
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:30 (GMT)
I just looked at the models... almost all of them develop the system off the Carols and bring it toward NY State. The only question is the size of the system.

Models
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1865. taco2me61
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Quoting indianrivguy:


I cannot speak for a hurricane, but we were rocking a constant 20 occasionally to 30+ degrees at 120 feet in the north atlantic once. We proceeded back down and sailed for a couple of days before coming up again.

I was aboard the USS Silversides during her SINS acceptance test 1972 where you are required to stay on the surface. In a Noreaster' we constantly rocked 30+ degrees sometimes to 40-45 deg for three days straight. Everyone was sick, some were sedated to prevent further dehydration. Most miserable I ever was at sea.


I went back and looked at my post and I am sorry I left off some zero's that was to be 600 to 700 feet with a shallow storm moving water 500 feet...... My bad.... I will pay a little closer on what I type....

Taco :0)
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3173
1863. lawntonlookers
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:23 (GMT)
A quick question concerning the invest this year and the CV waves. It appears to me that the upper level outflow bands have been more radial this year than in past years. They don't have the clockwise circular outflow that is more obvious in past TS. Is this something particular with the CV waves?
Member Since: 22.03.2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
1861. indianrivguy
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:22 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Canadian Navy


Much respect!

your football team would prolly beat Army too! Go Navy, beat Army!

I am an authority of sorts on the subject of the early United States Life Saving Service.. precursor to the USCG. I have nothing but respect for Coasties. Semper Paratus
Member Since: 23.09.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2429
1859. Samantha550
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Well one of our local channels has mentioned the possibility of something in the GOM. Well the other one did too. He said we're in great shape here in SE TX! And he didn't seem to know 96l existed. Lol. Ah well. Can't have it all.

From KBMT...

In the long-range forecast, the ECMWF (the European Model) for the past day-and-a-half has been consistently developing a WEAK tropical disturbance in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. There is nothing there now and we will be closely following the evolution of the models during the next several days.



YIKES!
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Well one of our local channels has mentioned the possibility of something in the GOM. Well the other one did too. He said we're in great shape here in SE TX! And he didn't seem to know 96l existed. Lol. Ah well. Can't have it all.

From KBMT...

In the long-range forecast, the ECMWF (the European Model) for the past day-and-a-half has been consistently developing a WEAK tropical disturbance in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. There is nothing there now and we will be closely following the evolution of the models during the next several days.



Childress mentioned last year that the ECMWF is the model that they most closely follow
Member Since: 13.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
1858. Relix
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:20 (GMT)
I won't take the Ensembles lightly. With Erika they somehow predicted she could move West and WSW instead of WNW/NW... and alas she did.
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
1857. indianrivguy
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting lavinia:
Thanks taco and Autistic2. That's what I was wondering. How far down you'd feel the affects. I was thinking of submarines.


I cannot speak for a hurricane, but we were rocking a constant 20 occasionally to 30+ degrees at 120 feet in the north atlantic once. We proceeded back down and sailed for a couple of days before coming up again.

I was aboard the USS Silversides during her SINS acceptance test 1972 where you are required to stay on the surface. In a Noreaster' we constantly rocked 30+ degrees sometimes to 40-45 deg for three days straight. Everyone was sick, some were sedated to prevent further dehydration. Most miserable I ever was at sea.
Member Since: 23.09.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2429
1855. Bordonaro
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


Did you fix it, because I looked at the post I saw that it wasn't there? I want to know if I wasn't just seeing things? It doesn't matter.

Yes, I did, I am still learning, and I don't want to confuse everyone who's learning either :0)!
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1854. TheDawnAwakening
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks!!


Did you fix it, because I looked at the post I saw that it wasn't there? I want to know if I wasn't just seeing things? It doesn't matter.
Member Since: 21.10.2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
1853. jpsb
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:


I have a friend at work that was in the Navy and the Captain took the ship through a Hurricane... I remember a bunch of things about that discussion, but not once were the words "fun", "enjoyable", or "I would like to do that again", mentioned. Most of what was said, I cannot post on this blog.

G'morning StormW...


Late in WW2 three USN destroyers were lost in a typhoon. An Iowa class battleship (very big ship) took minor damage. Strong storms at sea are not fun, not even a little bit.
Member Since: 30.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
1852. Dakster
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:10 (GMT)
Orca - Cool..
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9709
1851. Bordonaro
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Divergence creates outflow, not lift. Surface convergence allows lift to occur.

Thanks!!
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1850. Orcasystems
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:


Orca - You were in the USCG? or the Canadian equivalent?


Canadian Navy
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1849. taco2me61
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Well just to tell you I'm more worried about what could be something coming from the SE GOM as StormW made a comment about yesterday.... with sheer moving out and the remnants of Erika coming towards FL Keys and Cuba....
It could get very busy in here and North Gulf Coast....

Taco :0)
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3173
1848. Bordonaro
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:

all true i saw everything what ur saying
I lived in Ft Worth, TX for 28 yrs, temporarily here in Nashville, TN helping my daughter! People seem to forget the GOM in the BOC area is 80F + almost all year, and that weather dynamics say ONE THING and what ACTUALLY HAPPENS is another!! Especially in the Jaccuzi!! Claudette is a REAL GOOD EXAMPLE!
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1847. TheDawnAwakening
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Divergence creates outflow, not lift. Surface convergence allows lift to occur.
Member Since: 21.10.2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
1846. Dakster
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:
i wouldn't be surpised if the aoi in the boc has a code yellow at 2 pm


Me either... Just to be safe. Afterall, there has to be at least a 1% chance of it forming.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9709
1844. Bordonaro
7. syyskuuta 2009 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Quoting AllStar17:
The BOC needs to be watched because it is known for quickly spinning up storms (i.e. Marco, Bret, etc.)

Yes, that is very true, watching the satellite loops of the BOC, convection is continuing and spreading to the N. CIMSS maps shows shear is very low, an anti=cyclone is near/moving over the area and potentional for divergence is also good!!
Member Since: 25.08.2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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