Adieu to Danny

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 29. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:50 (GMT)

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L
Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

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2017. hunkerdown
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:55 (GMT)
new blog
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
2016. Cavin Rawlins
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:52 (GMT)
Good morning, the difference a day makes

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2015. 789
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:49 (GMT)
those are the two runs ,those will be thrown out ,start all over
Member Since: 18.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
2014. yonzabam
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:43 (GMT)
I don't think many on here are interested in tropical depressions in the western Pacific, but if you just like cutting and pasting for the hell of it . . . .
Member Since: 20.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2413
2013. 789
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:43 (GMT)
Quoting markymark1973:
The latest models ran on 94L are on crack :) GFS especially. You can throw those all out.
is it going fish then
Member Since: 18.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 262
2012. ackee
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:33 (GMT)
see 94L now has medium chance of develop can someone show centre of 94L seem like trying to come under the convection
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341
2011. markymark1973
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:30 (GMT)
The latest models ran on 94L are on crack :) GFS especially. You can throw those all out.
2010. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:26 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
15:00 PM JST August 30 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression "CP022009" (1006 hPa) located at 15.0N 178.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

---
Poor cyclone is struggling now

Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
2009. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:25 (GMT)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN (EP142009)
9:00 AM UTC August 30 2009
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kevin (1000 hPa) located at 14.1N 121.9W or 865 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
55 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.7N 121.9W - 50 kts (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 15.5N 121.4W - 50 kts (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.9N 120.2W - 40 kts (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.3N 119.1W - 40 kts (Tropical Storm)
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
2008. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:25 (GMT)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009)
9:00 AM UTC August 29 2009
=============================

SUBJECT: Interest in Western Mexico and the southern Baja California should monitor the progress of "Jimena"

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Jimena (965 hPa) located at 16.0N 105.7W or 265 NM south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico has sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Gale/Storm-Force Winds
========================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.8N 106.8W - 110 kts (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.9N 107.9W - 125 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.9N 110.0W - 120 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 24.5N 111.9W - 100 kts (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43646
2007. yonzabam
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 09:21 (GMT)
94L back to orange again

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Member Since: 20.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2413
2006. ChrisCone
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 08:36 (GMT)
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted?


the possibilities in the weather are endless
2005. ChrisCone
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 08:16 (GMT)
94L looks pretty weak now, looks like that means a more westerly track for the meantime. Not looking good
2004. yonzabam
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 08:13 (GMT)
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted?


Don't watch the Pacific much, but Jimena is headed for cat 4 status and may skim along the S. Baja coast. Just as well it's not densely populated like the northern part of it.

I noted some days ago that sea temperatures in some parts of the far east Pacific are an incredible 5C above normal, presumably due to El Nino.
Member Since: 20.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2413
2003. IpswichWeatherCenter
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 08:05 (GMT)
Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted?
Member Since: 27.04.2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
2001. winter123
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:45 (GMT)
half the models plow jimena into mexico.

Member Since: 29.07.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
2000. winter123
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:43 (GMT)
Quoting JLPR:
oh and some comedy before going =P

LOOK! IT HAS A PINHOLE EYE! xD



jimena does though. if that thing was gonna make landfall it'd be apocalypric for mexico
Member Since: 29.07.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
1999. Tracker09
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:38 (GMT)
This thing is getting it's act together. RAPIDLY
Member Since: 12.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
1998. CUBWF
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:24 (GMT)
I'm seen the 1008 mb is the one reported on the bouy 41041 that is further north by 3 degrees. The llc may be lower. Just what I think.
1997. Magicchaos
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:23 (GMT)
My public advisory for Two-C

Night all
Member Since: 3.04.2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
1996. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:23 (GMT)
oh and some comedy before going =P

LOOK! IT HAS A PINHOLE EYE! xD

Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1995. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:21 (GMT)
well then now im going to bed too =]

Here I leave this before going
Before


and After:


im expecting an orange circle at 8am, that is if it doesn't fell apart before then
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1994. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:18 (GMT)
me too see later
Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1993. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:17 (GMT)
yeahp
Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1992. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:17 (GMT)
Ha! I bet some of you thought I went to bed lol xD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1991. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:17 (GMT)
Quoting THUNDERPR:
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 0600 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



I see we got 1008mb now
its actually a little stronger now
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1990. Bobbyweather
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:14 (GMT)
AL, 94, 2009083006, , BEST, 0, 112N, 451W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Updated August 30, 2009 0703 UTC

Member Since: 7.09.2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2649
1989. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:05 (GMT)
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090830 0600 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1988. GBguy88
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 07:03 (GMT)
Jimena is really taking off. Worth a look. Eyewall looking really impressive, and the eye is quite visible now.
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
1987. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:55 (GMT)
agree looking much better for me is a treath for us.
Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1986. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:54 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:
anyways im out nite jlpr


night
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1984. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:52 (GMT)
Quoting THUNDERPR:
a big diferrence jlpr


yep that's what I thought
before blackout and after blackout xD

94L is shy lol it wanted to keep its convection a secret with the blackout
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1983. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:49 (GMT)
a big diferrence jlpr
Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1982. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:47 (GMT)


there with that you can get a good idea of how much better 94L is looking

Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1981. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:41 (GMT)
Quoting THUNDERPR:
30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1145 UTC 9.8N 42.4W TOO WEAK 94L


I would say the center is much more north than 10.7N
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1980. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:40 (GMT)
30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1745 UTC 10.3N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/1145 UTC 9.8N 42.4W TOO WEAK 94L
Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1979. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:40 (GMT)
Quoting btwntx08:

yep still needs to expand and we are underway


yep and with the readings in that buoy I will say a TD could form soon
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1978. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:39 (GMT)
... errm I mean later today xD
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1977. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:38 (GMT)
30/0345 UTC 10.7N 45.2W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic
Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1976. markymark1973
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:38 (GMT)
Quoting GetReal:
More evidence that 94L is becoming better organized.....http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html

It does show 94L is trying to wrap up now. It also shows how hostile conditions are to its N and W. I think 94L just came in at the wrong time for development. If atmospheric conditions were good this would be a shoe in for a Cat 3.
1974. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:37 (GMT)
agree with you jlpr
Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1973. JLPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:35 (GMT)
it looks like a orange circle seems likely for 94L tomorrow

Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1972. TampaSpin
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:34 (GMT)
We may be in blackout now.....so good nite everyone.....see you all tomorrow am. Nite you all and good conversation tonite.....THANKS
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
1971. GetReal
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:31 (GMT)
More evidence that 94L is becoming better organized.....http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html
Member Since: 4.07.2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
1969. homelesswanderer
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:25 (GMT)
At the end of this I think it shows a big high over the SE US into parts of ATL/GOM. And the tail end of the cold front. To me the low to the west of the high doesn't look like a major trough like we've been seeing that could break the ridge down. Am I wrong about that? Just curious. Trying to learn to read these things. :)
Link
Member Since: 15.08.2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1968. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:24 (GMT)
yes Tampaspin 1008.9 and trend falling
Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1967. THUNDERPR
30. elokuuta 2009 klo 06:23 (GMT)
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0543 24.9 kts NE ( 54 deg true )
Member Since: 11.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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