Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico
The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:
10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Ok. You are probably right.
I know exactly what you mean, I meet people from all over and they say very much what you have said. Hope it is not the sign of the times!
currently : S 3 MPH
effectively making this night ... hot! =\
84 °F
Humidity: 74 %
Wind Speed: S 3 MPH
Barometer: 29.92"
Dewpoint: 75 °F (24 °C)
Heat Index: 92 °F (33 °C)
Me thinks it might be
what am I? I'm a mother two boys, who is paranoid about hurricanes, but loves to watch them anyway.... I do not understand all of these maps people post, so I ask a lot of questions...isn't that what this blog is for? are you the owners?
Watch it Orca they may call you a Kook as well.
It's been ridiculously hot the whole day but man... the night is... wow... almost unbearable.
??
Speaking of track SSD dvorak position was @ 22.5N 67.1W which is South and west of the 0Z initialization for the track guidance.
May??
ROFLMAO, there are those on here who call me a lot worse :)
I am well also. We have had some wicked lightening here recently, has scared the crap out of me a few times. Walked out the door into the lanai at the same time it cracked. Heart failure! LOL
Wow. I would have thought that you would have a little bit more breeze. Its just about as bad here but we at least have a little wind to cool us down.
Someone posted that a little earlier. If the new position is correct, do you think this will have much bearing on the overall track. TIA
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #73
EXTRATROPICAL LOW, FORMER VAMCO (T0910)
9:00 AM JST August 26 2009
=========================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Vamco (988 hPa) located at 51.0N 169.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The low is reported as moving northeast at 40 knots
THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
CMC has really seen this one from five days before it began. Almost precisely consistent. Was a hair left on the 12z run as to where it made the near 90º turn north.
Not to sure...Recon leaves @ midnight so well see what they find.Moving at 20mph this thing could reach the southern bahamas vicinity tommorow.
Link Others may have better sites for you, but this is the one I use.
Thanks Storm. Just read it.
Thanks. Always appreciate your analysis and perspective.
You can get the SFWMD Model Plots HERE and for further variety you can you my links page.
Adrian
From what you are seeing could things livin up in the Carribean and GOM in September? Thanks.
To be honest, I'm more worried about the precip, rather than the wind event. Here in NE NC we have had more rain this summer than I can remember. Wish I could send some of this rain to others in the blog that need some.
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