Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico
The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:
10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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lol, no kidding, at least not at the surface. Yes, I know what it says!
Sometimes it does that to me
Also,I just looked at the latest ECMWF and noticed a strong tropical system crossing the Atlantic at about 216 hours with a very strong ridge in place.
Bastardi calling for a strong e coast storm??? NO!! I bet it'll hit NY metro area as at least a cat 2 if it forms. lol!
sorry it's just what Max Mayfield said while he was on local 10 at 6pm, he said that the HH were going to fly west to take a look, no one has made a bullish statement here i quite a while....
Hanna part deux?
It really looks like 92L is going due west......for now.
it looks like a centre is trying to near 23n 63w
It's not just a possibility, it's a near-certainty. Without a closed surface low there is no specific point for the model to initialize from.
OMG! Bastardi forecasting an east coast hit!
LOL...how you doing, Hunter?
That appears to be the ULL traveling westward.
Nice avatar...
Hey if it wasn't for him all we would hear about is Florida and the GOM. I don't think he is that bad.
I believe the ULL is a little further north than than down by 22.5 / 67
no doubt im in NE SC and if this puppy goes into rapid intensification mode once conditions get more favorable there isnt going to much time for the average joe to prepare/evac
Is actually happening in the C Gulf Coast region... if you look at the WV loops you'll see it.
In a lot of ways he's stormtop with a real job...
If it's moving like it's a GOM or FL storm, then that's what everyone will talk about. His problem is that EVERY storm is east coast hit
Now THATS funny
That's a heck of a cluster of thunderstorms.
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