Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico
The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:
10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Link
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.
AOI
AOI
AOI
The FSU Site is good for graphical output, and the S Florida Water Management site is good for spaghetti plots. Find both of those sites and the other most used tracking sites here.
Morning Pearland, good to see you
Isn't that the old ULL? That same area has been moving SW for a couple of days now. Could it have gone to the surface?
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC WED AUG 26 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090826 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200 090828 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.6N 70.0W 25.6N 72.2W 26.3N 73.9W 27.1N 75.2W
BAMD 24.6N 70.0W 25.4N 71.7W 25.9N 73.2W 26.5N 74.5W
BAMM 24.6N 70.0W 25.5N 71.8W 26.1N 73.3W 26.8N 74.5W
LBAR 24.6N 70.0W 26.0N 72.0W 27.1N 73.7W 28.6N 74.9W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090828 1200 090829 1200 090830 1200 090831 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.9N 76.0W 30.3N 75.7W 33.5N 72.5W 38.7N 69.3W
BAMD 27.8N 75.4W 32.5N 74.2W 38.4N 67.5W 44.1N 50.2W
BAMM 28.0N 75.2W 31.8N 73.9W 36.1N 68.8W 42.0N 60.2W
LBAR 30.1N 75.4W 34.0N 73.6W 40.3N 66.2W 45.9N 46.8W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 73KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 76KTS 73KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.6N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 66.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 21.7N LONM24 = 63.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Will be interesting to see if 92L makes landfall in the New South ....lmao
WITN:
A strong tropical wave located about 350 miles or so north of Hispaniola is expected to slowly strengthen today and tomorrow possibly becoming a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. The tropical low is expected to pass somewhere between the North Carolina coastline, to a couple hundred miles offshore late Friday into early Saturday. The track of the low could bring eastern Carolina anything from breezy conditions with a few showers to a wet and windy forecast depending on the strength and track of the storm. How the tropical wave evolves through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night should give us a good idea of what we may expect by late week.
Hardly sounds like they are sure it will be off coast.
he was already on my good side...but, in this case, he's also absolutely correct...
AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
Considering N. Carolina is way more advanced with RTP, Duke University, UNC and Charlotte. You would think S. Carolina would be jumping all over that. IMO.
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261201Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.5N 68.5W TO 30.0N 75.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.5N 69.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS: AT 26/12Z LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELON-
GATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
PRESENT, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470NM EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN
THROUGH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER,
UPPER-LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS DECREASING NORTHWESTWARD OF THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT IS VALID UNTIL BY 271200Z AUG 09.
//
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FM NMFC
TO FNM
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NMFC/OVLY2/0238/AUG
OVLY/TCFA/261201Z2/AUG/1OF1/TCFA AL9209/METOC
LINE/2//G/234800N7/0683600W3/300600N9/0744200W7
LINE/2//G/244800N8/0671200W6/224200N0/0700000W7
LINE/2//G/224200N0/0700000W7/290000N1/0761200W6
LINE/2//G/290000N1/0761200W6/310600N0/0731200W3
LINE/2//G/310600N0/0731200W3/244800N8/0671200W6
TEXT/20//G/214200N9/0714200W4/TCFA AL9209
TEXT/20//G/204200N8/0714200W4/VALID UNTIL 271201Z
TEXT/20//G/194200N6/0714200W4/WINDS: 30-35 KTS
TEXT/20//G/184200N5/0714200W4/MVG: WNW AT 15 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN
You said last year... Carols is ok?
All that is great...but we have Charleston...
Have they initialized the COC yet? It's hard to be confident of a track; but I am sure Florida is out of the woods on this one.
yea...but I fear you're encouraging bad behavior in the children...
Me?? S&I :)
yep, I hear ya press. Never was disputing the validity of the statement.
I will return to Charleston where Beauty and Charm abound - Rhett Butler
I may not have the quote exactly right
Trust me, the idea of South Carolina and North Carolina joining, did NOT originate here.
I know I wouldn't trust any of these models yet.. they have no idea where the centre is... when the HH was there yesterday.. it was well to the west of where they thought it was.
We have Ft. Bragg, Charlotte, The Outer banks, and most importantly Mayberry (from The Andy Griffith Show) was based on a real & actual place in N.Carolina.
Assume you are talking about my origional image from Raleigh Weather. I replaced it with the one from SFWMD since Raleigh did not have labels. Anyways, I think it just map scale. KOGs was from 06Z the other one 12Z. They both get their track from ATCF, so unless there was a change there, they should be the same.
starting to get his act together the farther and farther from the ULL he gets
Heading due W, MAYBE a pinch N of Due W.
The center is exposed.
Whatever, we have Round O, which is much better then Mayberry...lmao ;)
this is terrible....
Where's TAZ when you need him?
What does untasked mean? TIA
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