Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico
The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:
10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Have to do the same... l8r Kman... and everyone... checking back in 1 to 2 hours.
You're gonna get in trouble for that, lol
Which of these have been the best so far this season Ike?
Nice illustration. The combination of the track, winds and proximity to land will probably spur the NHC into classifying it. If the low tightens up later it should look more tropical in nature.
To me, the ECMWF.
300 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WX NEARING THE BAHAMAS COULD RESULT IN VERY DIFFERENT MARINE OUTCOMES
FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. THE SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU...GRADUALLY PUSHING SEAS
BACK UP TO NEAR SCA. THE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS UP INTO THU NT...WITH
WINDS UNDER 15KT. USING HPC FRONT/PRESSURE PATTERN AS A GUIDE SHOW
A WEAK LOW MOVING OUT OF THE S AND PASSING THROUGH THE PAM SOUND
BY SAT. HAVE BUMPED UP THE WINDS MARGINALLY TO 15 TO 20 KT FRI
NT/SAT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH. GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE
UNFAVORED MODEL GIVEN FAR E OUTLIER...SO DON`T TRUST WAVEWATCH SEA
HEIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH MARGINAL SCA BUT BUMPED
SEAS UP ABOUT A FOOT TO BETTER MATCH OUR OPC OFFSHORE FCST. AT
THIS TIME FCST HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON SYSTEM POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
WHICH IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPING LOW.
This was in the marine section. Well they believe a landfall should occur and the gfs is to far east since there has to be a landfall for it to get in the sound.
I agree.
Station 41046 (Requested) - E Bahamas 23.867 N 70.870 W
Wind Direction
08 26 5:50 am NNE
08 26 4:50 am NNE
08 26 3:50 am NE
08 26 2:50 am NE
08 26 1:50 am ENE
08 26 12:50 am NE
08 25 11:50 pm ENE
08 25 10:50 pm NE
08 25 9:50 pm ENE
08 25 8:50 pm NE
08 25 7:50 pm ENE
08 25 6:50 pm E
08 25 5:50 pm ENE
08 25 4:50 pm ENE
08 25 3:50 pm E
08 25 2:50 pm E
08 25 1:50 pm E
08 25 12:50 pm E
08 25 11:50 am E
08 25 10:50 am E
08 25 9:50 am E
08 25 8:50 am NE
IKE...
finally a good spot
Convection displaced to the W and NW
Be interesting to see the 12z xtrap and BAM models when they come out shortly.
Morning all,
Good to see ya press and Dart.
sorry direction diareha this morning
Uhh you mean east and northeast right? LOL
my bad, still on the first cup
Thought it was Dean, not Danny, for the next named storm...
EDIT...
OK, you edited it.
Is the SFWM site usually the first to update with the Xtrap, and the BAM models?
Link
wonder what the other models will start doing? east coast better keep a weather eye out for 92L/Danny might be our turn to finally get hit =(
NWS for Charleston:
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM
TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCE WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. THE
NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL APPEAR TO BE SIMILARLY CLUSTERED WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO BE
A BIT OF AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND HOW QUICKLY IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE TROUGH COULD BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD HAVE AN EFFECT BY LIMITING THE EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND TRACKS INCREASES... WILL LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO A CHANCE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
also 10 day gfsx more a coming
Link
Nope, it's Danny. Hmmm. Sorry about that chief...
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
Morning SJ, they have been slow lately not sure why. You can also try Raleigh Weather
Well..Im from Wilmington and the local mets have been reporting on it..its a wait and see event..expect the worst but hope for the best
Because Grace helped make the perfect storm?
I thought of you this morning when I was reading a story about two people that were swept out to sea in their boat during Bill. They made it back alive.
I see the COC now on the 1215UTC visible...completely exposed at those coordinates.
Link
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