Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico
The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:
10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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the two-legged kind or the spaghetti ones?? LOL
6Z GFS.....is offshore w/92L...
Good morning......
Too close for comfort
get your board out my man, and seek revenge!! I bet Leftover's is still smiling from riding Hurricane Bill. I know my kid is.
I'm not a native Floridian, but my co-workers who are tell me that back in the 50's and 60's it wasn't as hot in Florida as it is now. I've even been told about snow flurries in Broward County!
Decisions, decisions - 92L - a repeat performance or a creative left- What shall Mother Nature decide?
guess I'll stay tuned
Invest 92L heads west-northwes updated
Nice blog 456
If 92L wraps up and becomes Danny and follows the CMC we get slammed, any other model and it looks like another great wave day.
Heck yes. My wife made me that the other morning. I love pancakes and sausage.
Looks like 92L has a ways to go.
True..... all the asphalt and concrete has made a lot of difference,and rain patterns have changed with the drainage of swamps, ponds, wet lands -- personally I'd like to see the malls all returned (they're all EMPTY NOW anyway and look like air conditioned morgues ) to parks and greenbelts.....
:) I'm with you on returning the malls...more open areas - parks and greenbelts would be beautiful!
Well, first evidence seen on Shortwave SAT Imagery of a LLC @24.5N69.5W.
Convection can be seen on the E periphery of the low being sheared still by the TUTT to is SSW.
Still moving slowly to the WNW and should remain doing so for the time being unless it builds deeper convection:
Good morning! It actually snowed here in homestead about an inch in the 70's. Wouldn't that be great!
I remeber not too long ago nights where we needed sweatshirts or light jackets due to the temp drop. Now its mostly short sleeves due to the lack of temp change.
People don't obey, believe or understand the power of water -- most just think of how pretty and have no clue of the weight and power of HEAVY WATER.
Had a huge Head-butt w/my son... he wanted to go out on Saturday (drive from the gulf side over to the east side)but I put my foot down....NO! Sunday was perfect... just enough spice to test him in the AM and then glassy in the afternoon. His first trip w/out me..... fretted the whole time
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N67W 24N69W 21N69W...MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
24N69W IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT FLEW THROUGH THIS AREA
DURING THE TIMES FROM 25/1900 UTC UNTIL 25/2100 UTC DID NOT
SHOW A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE
27N67W 21N69W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALSO JUST HAPPENS TO BE IN THE SAME NEIGHBORHOOD
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. SHOWERS ALSO COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA FROM HAITI TO 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NOOOOOO!! My mango, avocados, lime, bananas, bandit chickens --who not appreciate that one bit....
I mean what BeachBunny wants to wear a snow suit???
When you coming back to visit? --the Lady of the gulf is calling you...LOL
as far as not obeying or beliving in the power of water. Its amazing how many folks got into trouble and the sad deaths that occured. Even novice surfers got into trouble with Bill, friends and I pulled a few groms out ourselves. Besides the wicked rips the surf was just so heavy, dont remeber the last "heavy" day this far north. 16 sec period swells make for a very hard day up here LOL.
Have the wedding this October so all funds heading that way and to the honeymoon.
Second job is now keeping me quite busy so when I finally do catch a break we will be heading south without fail.
The change is nice.. I love the beach but a nice fall or a winter that is not to harsh would be great.. I hate having Christmas when its in the high 80's or sweating your but off on halloween eve while trick or treating. LOL..
16 sec!!!! LIKE A HAMMER!!! -- it was fun to see the "men" ripping it up and the groms -too young and inexperienced having to watch, if they were smart. I scouted around for pics on my blog... and the guys out in the waves are Seasoned Veterans..... just love those Salty Dogs!!
Do you think that there are any woman who can handle that kind of power??? Just seems that at a certain point, Surfing -becomes a MEN'S DAY ONLY- sport.....
Good!!! Keep me posted....there is always a board for you here!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS IS
DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...AT
ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
I beleive when i get to the computer this afternoon...We'll have TS Danny.
good morning, yes its usually slow in the morning and all the kids are in school..till afternoon when it picks up.LOL
From the way it sounds probably ts forming.
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