Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico
The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:
10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Public Forecast Southeast Bahamas
WEATHER FORECAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TUESDAY 25TH AUGUST 2009..........
GENERAL SITUATION: FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA TRIGGERING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE AREA.............
FOR SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS .............
WEATHER: PARTLY SUNNY, HOT AND STEAMY WITH FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TODAY...FEW CLOUDS AND WARM TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS............
FOR THE BOATERS (ADVISORY): SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS IN OR NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.............
WINDS: EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS....
SEAS RUNNING: 3 TO 6 FEET OVER THE OCEAN.........
OUTLOOK FOR THE BAHAMAS FOR WEDNESDAY: A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS, HOWEVER MOST OF THE WEATHER UNLIKELY TO AFFECT OUR ISLANDS AS IT REMAINS PARTLY SUNNY, HOT AND STEAMY WITH FEW SHOWERS..................
As expected. The models did not initialize the steering flow very well.
My taste of that advice: Somehow make sure your tub will not slowly drain out with the stopper in place. Ours was empty within 12 hours after Gustav came through. And, we found that a kiddie pool with a little bit chlorine in it was just fine for the flushing! (with bucket for transport)
I don't think it was ever moving NW. Cloud motions indicated WNW.
The local marine forecast says no significant weather expected in the Bahamas between now and the weekend. 'Twould be pleasant if it remains so....
From the HPC
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 02 - 08 2009
DURING WEEK TWO, THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND A RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR WESTERN CANADA. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS
PREDICTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST
REGION.
My Bar is still high, and "rose" when I just tapped it. What little breeze I have is still SE.
That's all for tonight. I'll see what Wed brings.
Goodnight.
CRS
>Loop
Will have to check back in the morning.
Good night
o danny boy the pipes the pipes are callin you
I love practical advice.
The pattern mentioned by the HPC is favorable for a Hurricane to get into the Gulf of Mexico.
I rarely do the TV weather here, and the radio weather is usually someone from the met office reading a statement similar to the one I posted earlier.
But I'll take ur barometer reading for the time being....
Good night!
YOU READS ME's MIND........LMAO
What I got from some of the earlier posts was that a weaker storm would do more damage in the NE simply because there is more per square mile TO damage. I don't think they meant that Texans didn't suffer as much.
Frankly, I think TX has an advantage in that there IS still so much of the coast that is relatively undeveloped. It takes a storm like Ike, with a direct hit on one of TX's three major population centres, to do the kind of financial damage that a cat 1 / cat 2 would do anywhere from, say, Jersey to Mass. It means TX has a better chance of a quick recovery than the NE coast.
In the end, though, it's the individual cost that people remember, the ones that went through it. I don't think a Texan who loses his home to a storm is going to feel it any less than a New Yorker would.
later stormw and all
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