Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico
The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:
10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Launch Team Targets Aug. 28 Launch
NASA is targeting space shuttle Discovery for a launch attempt Friday morning at 12:22 a.m., mission management team Chairman Mike Moses said. Engineers will evaluate a liquid hydrogen valve that developed problems during tanking operations Tuesday evening. Detailed test data about the valve will be examined before Discovery’s fuel tank is loaded with propellant ahead of Friday morning’s launch attempt.
This one isn't pretty at all... 3 of them at the end
cmc 2009082512 Forecast slp Java Animation
Shingles and roofing nails in the pool even after a strong cat 1.
The 3 things that scare me most going to sleep are:
1- This thing is starting way West, so East Coast in jeopardy if this does anything.
2- 60mph winds and it's not even organized.
3- lack of prep and lack of notice.
Sleep tight y'all.
So you contributed to the discussion. Thanks!!
What did I do this time?
All I did was show you the models :)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/09082512/64.html
is what i was looking at....
I like the animated ones.. adds a little life to it :)
Did you like the closing credits... THREE systems.
Who ever said that does not know what they are talking about. I've done hurricanes in Long Island (Sands Point) and hurricanes on the Texas Gulf Coast (Galveston Bay). Hurricanes are MUCH worse here in Texas, no comparison. MUCH WORSE. I'll take a cat 2 on Long Island over a (big) cat 4 in Texas anyday.
the new stuff it up...weird one this 92L... they still have it as 92L but winds at 45mph
I love it that people are willing to share tips like this on here. :-)
Loop
To loosely quote Seinfeld, this season thus far is, 'a lot about nothing.'
This is good, of course, although some areas in the tropics are in dire need of rain.
Would like to see Dr. Masters do a blog on rain deficits in and around the Caribbean.
hehehe...love it when shakespeare re-enters the present!
yep not pretty at all
we should watch closely since the cmc seems to be getting good at predicting TC formation with the exception that it goes nuts with the intensity lol
CRS, have ur news guys made any comments about this approaching system on the local weather?
I've missed weather reports all day today :o(
...um
I don't have TV (intentionally)
CRS
Viewing: 551 - 601
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