Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico
The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.
The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:
10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Un-tasked means that it was not a scheduled flight if I am not mistaken
yeap thats the part thats moving due west at this hour and convection tagging along
did the trof kinda fizzle out over central fla also
not saying its much of anything right now but 92 is getting his act together as far as previous vis images and the current one
thanks btw =)
Hey every one. Just letting yall know I have been lurking and will be lurking.
Howdy Lefty, long time no see. Good to have you around.
Soon to be TS Danny
COC exposed, shear still affecting it but is relaxing.
Charleston is a great historic city. One of my favorite places on the East Coast. But not to many jobs in Charleston. And if you need any kind of advanced medical treatment you need to travel to N. Carolina.
Here is what the Tasking message header says
Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 12:46Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Al92 (Probably storm name and mission number)
Observation Number: 11
It was not scheduled by the NHC. It was however in yesterday's Plan of the Day:
3. REMARKS: NOAA MAY BEGIN FLYING RESEARCH MISSIONS
EVER 12 HRS WITH THE FIRST TAKEOFF TENATIVELY SET
FOR 25/2000Z THIS AFTERNOON.
It is the NOAA plane that is out there now.
And by "advanced" you mean higher taxes and lots of transplanted Yankees with funny accents, I'm sure...haha. South Carolina is my homestate, and she will never merge with the likes of NC. I hate it when people in Charlotte refer to themselves as living in "metrolina"....blech!
Back to Danny...there is definitely a LLC on satelite...not sure what the NHC is waiting for.
My guess would be data and facts?
I'm thinkin', their 2pm advisory...
still exposed but beging to pull his pampers up
It is a research mission that was not tasked by NHC. It was tasked by NOAA as a special mission to gather data for future forecast improvement in the models etc. Its data is still useful for the current system.
Oh Yeah. Where does the time go.
Danny by 11am is my guess 24.94 70.46
Oh yeah. I can not complain lol.
Figured it was time to let yall know I am still here
Basic answer: Less wind and higher SSTs in the Atlantic
Based on its current representation... in my opinion may be tomorrow AM after DMAX.
I agree...2pm
How you been?
Ive been lurking not much to talk about so i kept quiet. This one has my interest peaked though.
Any theories on how things will play out to steer this thing?
WTNT35 KNHC 261443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009
...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DANNY...
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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