Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record
Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.
Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.
Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.
Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.
Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.
Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.
U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.
At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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WTNT43 KNHC 200246
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009
DATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO BILL
INDICATE THAT IT IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140 KT...AND
A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL MEASURED A MEAN
WIND OF 134 KT OVER THE THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF SOUNDING. THE
SFMR MEASURED A PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF 108 KT. USING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA SUPPORT A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
BILL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 305/15. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT ON THIS GENERAL
COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND BILL
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD
CONSISTENCY DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED THEREAFTER. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
THAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONGER RANGES...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
BILL IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 70W
MAY CAUSE IN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE STRONG TROUGH AND COOLING SSTS SHOULD IMPART A MORE RAPID RATE
OF WEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL BEGINNING TO INTERACT
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN
U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 20.7N 58.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 22.1N 60.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.1N 63.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 26.6N 65.6W 120 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 67.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 36.0N 69.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 45.0N 62.5W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/0000Z 53.0N 44.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
bill is no longer a fish storm it will make land fall in
just to wrap this up...I don't WISH death on anyone either...but..ya pays yo money...and ya takes yo chances...
wishcasting??
Guess we cant call Bill a fish storm anymore if it does that.
Chances are it maybe extratropical by then.
BTW, where is the ace tonight?
Lapse in Judgement (LiJ):
Fishing between W. Ship Island and Cat Island
see big storm head in so go to pier on Ship Island
Watch boats get tossed about
go back to fishing after storm passes
LiJ: not going straight in after storm and finding notes from home on all four of our windshields telling us to call home IMMEDIATELY (4 hours after storm)
found out later couple of boats had actually sunk and there were waterspouts, all near shore
Only a complete moron would have called Bill a fish storm since this system started.
It is wobble doofus why is that wishcacting ...GEEZ!
i don't see how the person you are responding to is incorrect. Bill has definitely jogged a big more to the west, but I don't think it's more than a jog. The eye has decreased in size and looks somewhat more ragged. This probably means it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which in strong hurricanes frequently causes "jogging."
Amen to that. I never understood why they called Bill a fish storm when it was over a WEEK out.
Models are the gospel at +3 days IMO.
South Florida StormWatch
GEEZ, Gonna choose my words more carefully from now on. I used bad wording and this took off in a whole different direction.
My point was:
Quoting Chicklit:
Exqueeze me. But it is a mariner's responsibility to himself and those on board to look at weather conditions before he/she leaves port. Very old rule. Recall the NFL guys that were capsized in the Gulf. 2/3 didn't make it.
(me)
"I agree whole heartedly. I never head to the Gulf with(out) knowing what's going on, but the person asking the question was NOT the person on the boat, but a concerned family member."
Do we all need to know about every little wobble? We obviously are all looking at the same satellite pictures!!
Not that I'm defending anyone(if told to evacuate I certainly would)but there are other factors we should try to understand. Personally I can understand some people's reluctance to evac. Imagine you've lived in a home all your life(maybe your parents did also), the community is all you've ever known. Now imagine to be asked to quickly take whatever you can carry and leave behind your most valued possessions, your neighbors, the candy store you met your spouse in, highschool,etc. Again, personally I would leave but I could understand the trepidation of those that would hesitate
all is well Captain...steady as she goes....
We are indeed not accustomed to these
Check out the Canadian Hurricane Centre.
I haven't gone thru their archives yet to see what is the strongest recorded hurricane to hit Canada.. but ironically, the most remembered one and the most destructive is Hurricane Hazel, which maintained its strength after coming inland and did great loss of life and damage in the city of Toronto, of all places.
IMHO, it wouldn't surprise me if bill weakens a tad tonight. Hurricanes typically weaken slightly in an EWRC. However, waters actually warm in Bill's path, and water temperatures have warmed substantially just off the east coast recently. Just checking the buoy's near and in Bill's possible path, and many of them have water temperatures around 85 degrees Farenheight. Water temperatures are currently near 83 degrees now.
Buoy information can be found here:
Link
1619. Acemmett90 9:58 PM CDT on August 19, 2009
J/K...my friends dont buy snake oil...
HURRICANE BILL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO
Dark at night followed by partial light in the morning to fully light by afternoon. 100% confidence in that model
Been there done that, Katrina 2005, Gautier Mississippi. Was ordered to evacuate Did so with wife children and dog, Lost everything except for ewhat matter the most our lives. Rebuilt my home, got new clothing, Etc... I would do it again without hesitation... Oh and I was in a no flood zone.... But I agree with you there are some who choose to stay and well cientist call what happen next "Natural Selection".....
ROFLMAO
And it was BAD. I lived in NB during that time but came home to visit my parents and witnessed the aftermath. Like I said before, its lingering forestry damage will make this new one even more destructive.
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