Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record
Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.
Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.
Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.
Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.
Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.
Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.
U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.
At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Can you give a link? Thanks! :-)
Might be what he's gonn do, I think models are over estimating the trough, just like the high pressure ridges
Link
Volcano, hmmm, I am much more impressed with the New Madrid fault.
Now THAT!!
I wonder at the hype on the San Andreas Fault, when the New Madrid, from my little readings, appears much frightening, for the whole of the US.
5 points for me!
And being frends with me is bad in what way, my aggie friend?
Tide schedule:
2009-08-23 (Sunday)
Time Height
ADT (m) (ft)
02:30 13.7 44.9
09:01 0.1 0.3
14:53 13.6 44.6
21:24 0.2 0.7
2009-08-24 (Monday)
Time Height
ADT (m) (ft)
03:16 13.4 44.0
09:46 0.4 1.3
15:39 13.2 43.3
22:11 0.6 2.0
Whaaaa.... Nooo..
Don't let him do that! He could hydroplane and slide right into Maine!
Then I won't have any comfortable boots for winter!
Thanks!
That wasn't about you, but since you asked,
nah, nevermind (just teasing you Jerry)
By this, he should be a Cat 2 when making landfall...I realize a cat 2 can be BAD (Ike 08) but this would definitely be better than a 4 or 5. Still hoping for a "no landfall".
Maybe Bill will vanish in the bermuda triangle!!
Yea only if your inland away from the water
That's a POGO MINI!! Another Pogo'er on here. Cool.
Thanks for the graphic.
I would like to know this too... Anyone?
Gosh, I was thinking about Bill making things better for the next tropical wave, but now that you mention it, you are right, all of the dust, dry air, that he is carrying North, not to mention disruption in airflows?
Interesting, unfortunately it will take someone of Dr.Masters expertise to give you an answer, I am just a layman, amateur.
According to the NHC graphic of 5:00, its center wont pass through the box... which ends at 20 N and 60 W. And even if it did... "Hebert himself acknowledged that the boxes are not a guarantee of hurricane landfall either way"
Yep...think about being in the Holland Tunnel when 18-20 feet of storm surge breaks over the end of Manhattan...hell, think about being in the Starbucks at 38th and Lex
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...
535 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 970 MILES...1565
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
Look at this loop of Bill Notice how the "eye" is pointing at a westward angle , looks like borderline cat4/5 to me. I wonder if Bill's forward will change the track any.
United States is gonna start seeing more and more natural disasters, because on mother natures watch, it's just time
That would be too serious. As you know, it is not just winds, but storm surge, that will contribute to the threat.
Mariner's 1-2-3 rule has most of the east coast in the cone...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/203116.shtml?basin#contents
Starting to take on a more circular look, not as squashed as it was on the W side.
What is a ULL? Is this something that can turn into a concern later?
Another lovely day in paradise(Trinidad)
Thanks Bill the sun is out in most of the island,but this wont last long after all it is august.
getting ready to hit his stride starting now and the next 24-36 hrs
An Upper Level Low
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY. A
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD PUSH A STRONG FRONT INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
IMPACT OF HURRICANE BILL TO OUR EAST. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD
BE DRIER BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.
Hi T&T. I'm in BIM. Two of my sisters were born in your isle. Plus, my wife mom from there originally.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER GUILLERMO (EP102009)
21:00 PM UTC August 19 2009
====================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Guillermo (1014 hPa) located at 30.8N 155.4W or 590 north-northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 31.9N 156.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 33.3N 158.3W - 25 knots (Low Pressure Area)
Well...thats all folks! NYC in the clear, NEXT
Viewing: 851 - 901
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