Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record
Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.
Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.
Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.
Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.
Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.
Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.
U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.
At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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wow....
Are you a 100% sure that the trough will turn this North? I just worry that so many many people are banking on the fact that this is true.
Nothing is 100%, but I'd say 99.99%.
Let's sit back, relax and watch Major Hurricane Bill does his thing.
Flood - Light up a fat one and pass it around.
Quoting GwadaGeek:
The date on the picture is... april 2008. Quite a sunny day here in Guadeloupe...
One of the things that always amuses me is how absolutely beautiful the weather can be when a storm is travelling. It's as if the storm sucks up all the clouds for hundreds of miles around it.
Just like Bret Favre was
Hurricane Isabel in 2003 busted through the trough and hit the Carolinas. It's slim, but there is a chance Bill could do that.
Wishcasters back in their shell...check.
Ana dead....check.
High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.....
Good news for Bermuda.....
Thanks doc!
Wasn't it forcasted to do that though?
lol
I am no expert but I wouldnt say that its a 100% sure. These models are not that accurate after 3-5 days. I remember that when Bill was in the middle of the Atlantic the track was aimed at PR and looked what happened.
I am NOT saying that it will hit the US. I am only saying that the models are not 100% accurate in the long run. So far the NHC has done a great job with Bill (short term). Just keep an eye on the system and be prepared...we should all be in hurricane season.
I see we could have 2 Cat 4's on earth at once.
Hurricane Bill and Typhoon Vamco.
Also, My blog auto updates. I will be adding to it over time, so if you want to know the latest weather in OZ, Have a look, leave a comment.
Cheers AussieStorm
Yep. StormW also mentioned that as well.
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-document&issn=1520-0493&volume=130&issue=09&page=22 10&ct=1
Idealized Numerical Simulations of Hurricane%u2013Trough Interaction
456 was on early this morning. Said he would be back this afternoon.
I noticed the Navy model has Bill making contact/grazing upper New England. How reliable is that model, and what should we yankees be looking for to get a better idea of Bill's track?
While I am a huge fan of dramatic weather events, I am also working on possible evacuation plans for my family should Kennebunkport, ME face imminent danger.
Thanks guys.
Any guesses on what would be Bill's peak intensity. I would say 140 mph, 24 hours from now, with pressure ~940 mb
Even if so, I'd like to know what kind of trough it was she busted through. Weak? Mediocre? Strong? All troughs are not created equal. On top of that, Isobel was the one in 100 genuine article annular storm; Bill is certainly not that.
I'm not expecting any "trough-busting" with that final trough this weekend. After all, even Wilma obeyed her trough.....
Ike got it right again!! CHECK
First! (2nd guesser) lets see how many more come along in the next hour.
. . .NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. . . . a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high. Holy cow Dr. Masters!
Great news for Bermuda:
High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.
Do we have any friends on the blog that live in the Antilles?
Don't Know if i count. I'm from Trinidad...lol..party cloudy here...expecting rain in about 30 mins.
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