African wave 99L may develop; Felicia threatens Hawaii; record rains from Morakot

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:20 (GMT)

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A strong tropical wave with a high amount of spin moved off the coast of Africa yesterday, and has a good chance of becoming the first named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. The wave was designated 99L by NHC Sunday morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north, but this is not currently interfering with the storm's organization. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along two axes. The storm can now be classified as tropical depression using the satellite-based Dvorak classification technique, but the surface circulation will have to show better definition before 99L can be classified as a tropical depression. Top winds were in the 20 - 30 mph range, as estimated by QuikSCAT and the Dvorak satellite estimates.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of disturbance 99L.

Wind shear is expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, tonight through Tuesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, so conditions favor development. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models all develop 99L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. The dry air of the Saharan Air Layer may become a problem for 99L 2 -4 days from now, as the storm moves slightly north of due west. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 6 days before the storm makes it that far.

The GFS model predicts development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa about 6 - 7 days from now.

Felicia weakens to a tropical storm, still a threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite imagery shows that wind shear is beginning to affect the storm, with strong upper-level winds from the west pushing the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity all to the east side of the center.


Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, though. Wind shear has increased to a moderate to high 20 knots, and is expected to increase further to 30 knots by Monday morning. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should reduce Felicia to tropical depression strength by the time the center reaches the Hawaiian Islands Monday night. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 40% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm when it moves through the islands Monday night, and 40% chance it will be a tropical depression. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 1). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for the Big Island. Felicia or its remnants should bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning Monday morning, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.

Typhoon Morakot hits China
Typhoon Morakot hit China this morning as a tropical storm, lashing the mainland with very heavy rain. Yesterday, Morakot hit Taiwan, dumping up to 80 inches of rain on the island over a 2-day period, according to news reports. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952, so the Typhoon Morakot 2-day totals are some of the highest ever measured in the world. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau. Three are dead and 31 people missing on the island, and Morakot also killed 23 people in the Philippines.

I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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3379. CycloneOz
13. elokuuta 2009 klo 19:52 (GMT)
CycloneOz - Lurk Mode=On

No telling when I'll turn it off. Find me and my videos / animations on YouTube.

Best Wishes everyone! :)

CycloneOz - Out...

/lurk mode now on
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
3377. cg2916
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 16:20 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
3376. mikatnight
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 16:20 (GMT)
Quoting Funkadelic:

Andrew is a touchy subject.. Lost two of my best friends during that beast. They were roomates and never listened to evacuations, thought they could weather it out.

So I will not mention that Andrew storm, in corralation with Florida eer again. But we should be concerned with what comes off of arica. The CV storms that make the long trek across the atlantic pose a great deal of danger to any state.




Sorry for your loss...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3374. mikatnight
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 16:10 (GMT)
#3371 Good post wxhead!

Oh, and Sammywammy - I was rivited by the Andrew video...thanks.
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3372. oakland
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 16:08 (GMT)
Quoting BrandiQ:



I was living in North Miami Beach at the time. I hope I never have to experience something like that ever again!


I was in Ft. Lauderdale and we had almost nothing by comparison to Miami-Dade. That was close enough for me.
Member Since: 4.09.2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7525
3370. CycloneOz
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 16:01 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:
From The Caribbean Weather Center
MY OPINION:
--Next WAVE may exit Africa tomorrow. GFS develops this into a significant Tropical LO as it drifts slowly W to 13N/30W Sat15 / crossing 60W near 19N Thu20 / raking much of the Bahamas as a Hurricane Sat22 / reinforcing HI over NE US Mon24 prevents Hurricane from turning N, causing it to plow into S Florida. It's WAY too early to be concerned about this feature...but it hints the coming increase in activity may create more-than-one Tropical LO.


Uh, so we could have a strong TC plowing into S. FL around the timeframe of the 17th anniversary of Andrew doing the same thing?

Wow...
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
3369. Ossqss
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:59 (GMT)
3353. Patrap, I would offer that the traditional AV/security packages did not catch the password stealer or loader in most instances. Windows defender did! It is a free item.
Member Since: 12.06.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8183
3368. weathersp
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:58 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
From Saturdays infection..some Bugs and horse's


Tip for ALL:

If your using Internet Explorer or Firefox when you scroll over a link it tells you where it goes (even if its a picture link)..

Don't click something you don't recognise or looks suspicious.. Always check before clicking.
Member Since: 14.01.2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
3367. bystander
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:58 (GMT)
New blog
Member Since: 24.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
3365. SavannahStorm
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:58 (GMT)

New Blog
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2229
3364. CaneWarning
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:57 (GMT)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I've been tracking that wave the ECMWF likes since it was over Chad and the Central African Republic Drak. It's silly, but I've had a feeling about that wave since I saw it on Friday.


Go with your gut.
Member Since: 26.04.2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3363. kmanislander
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:57 (GMT)
Have to get back to work now but will check in later.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3362. PcolaDan
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:57 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Still having some PC issues thru here,..so I advise everyone to be cautious of opening links.


What are you using to clean things up?
Member Since: 22.08.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
3360. ALCoastGambler
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:57 (GMT)
Quoting futuremet:


Are people posting malicious links again?
I got 2 viruses this morning but protection got them before they got in
3358. TampaSpin
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:56 (GMT)
Quoting sammywammybamy:



Your thinking is that :

Because 99L Is weak it will not feel the weakness

therefore countiueing its tryjectory west west north west

therefore making a landfall on PR, or the Conus ..

Somewhat possible..

Have you seen the new models


Sammy i have....its doing exactly as i thought it would do and yes move west and miss the gap to escape out to sea.......99L is a sleeper for now....more concerning now is at 60W....this could be a rapid developer...just have to wait out the next 12hours and see what happens here...
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
3357. StormChaser81
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:55 (GMT)
Quoting tornadofan:


Nice loop Kman. However, it is about to enter the Eastern Caribbean where systems tend to struggle if not already developed, right?


Not true, the have no problem developing in that area, al depends on the environment conditions.
Member Since: 11.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
3356. tornadofan
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:55 (GMT)
Quoting kmanislander:


Statistically that is correct but shear is near 5 knots all the way to 70W. Once past 70W the Caribbean tends to be very conducive for development and there is a well defined anticyclone near 70W that may amplify and allow that feature to organize. I have not looked at the forecast for shear in the central Caribbean but current conditions in the Eastern Caribbean are as good as I have seen them this season.



Thanks for your reply. Will keep an eye on it for sure.
Member Since: 5.04.2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
3355. BrandiQ
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:54 (GMT)
Quoting mikatnight:


Many residents and even some hurricane scientists who experienced the northern eyewall of Andrew reported that the wind gained a "freakish velocity" (Brown 1993). Residents near the center of the storm, reported that around 5:00 a.m., as the eye was coming ashore, the wind reach an deafening roar, "like a freight train running across the roof" (Brown 1993). At this point, many people reported their homes experienced a deep vibration until the structure failed (roof ripped off, walls blew out). Site investigations after the storm reported that even automobiles flew through the air for a short distance. As Andrew's eyewall passed over south Dade County, thousands of residents in panic went from room to room, as sections of their homes were being destroyed. Many residents stayed in hallways, closets, and bathrooms, until conditions improved around 7.00 a.m. on the 24th.

I'm not that curious.



I was living in North Miami Beach at the time. I hope I never have to experience something like that ever again!
Member Since: 25.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
3354. 69Viking
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:54 (GMT)
Hmm, looks like we might have some things to talk about for the next couple of weeks! Good morning everyone!
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
3353. Patrap
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:54 (GMT)
From Saturdays infection..some Bugs and horse's,


-TrojanDownloader:Win32/Renos
Aliases

Win32.Renos (F-secure)


-PWS:Win32/Daurso.A ---- This bugger made attempts on 8-03, 8-04, and 8-08 and is a password stealer
Aliases

Win-Trojan/Daurso.32768 (AhnLab)
Win32/PSW.Agent.LQD (ESET)
Trojan-PSW.Win32.Agent.mzh (Kaspersky)
Trj/Downloader.MDW (Panda)
and a number of others
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3352. CycloneOz
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:53 (GMT)
Quoting BenBIogger:


Link


Thanks boss. Looking ahead, the Barbados wave doesn't look like the odds for full scale development as a TC are in favor.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
3351. futuremet
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:53 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Still having some PC issues thru here,..so I advise everyone to be cautious of opening links.


Are people posting malicious links again?
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
3350. Patrap
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:53 (GMT)
Still having some PC issues thru here,..so I advise everyone to be cautious of opening links.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3349. extreme236
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:52 (GMT)
Quoting Drakoen:
It's gonna take another 24 hours to repair this:


Yup. Its a mess right now, but I still think it has a shot despite what some may think. Still has that circulation.
Member Since: 2.08.2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3347. weathersp
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:51 (GMT)
Quoting rwdobson:
print out the pdf map of the atlantic basin and throw darts at it.


Hey that's my forecasting technique! LOL
Member Since: 14.01.2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
3346. BurnedAfterPosting
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:50 (GMT)
Quoting SavannahStorm:


12Z GFS at 54 hours.


yup and as you can see again on this run, that is clearly the wave that is exiting Africa now
3345. Drakoen
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:51 (GMT)
I see there is support for another system to develop off the coast of Africa from the ECMWF.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
3344. SavannahStorm
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:49 (GMT)


12Z GFS at 54 hours.
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2229
3342. rwdobson
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:49 (GMT)
Quoting annabelle27:
It may be way too soon to ask this, but does anybody think this system(s) off the coast of Africa could effect travel plans from Houston to Cozumel on August 20 - 25?


There is no way to answer this question with any accuracy. A random guess is as accurate as any 2-week prediction.
Member Since: 12.06.2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1574
3341. KYhomeboy
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:49 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:


They forgot to mention the horrific light and sounds of transformers exploding. Sounded like someone launching RPG's at you.

Been there, done that- I can understand someone not wanting to be "curious".


Agreed. Some curiosity is best fed by watching footage on the tv, looking at pictures, reading different source etc...
3340. kmanislander
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:48 (GMT)
Quoting tornadofan:


Nice loop Kman. However, it is about to enter the Eastern Caribbean where systems tend to struggle if not already developed, right?


Statistically that is correct but shear is near 5 knots all the way to 70W. Once past 70W the Caribbean tends to be very conducive for development and there is a well defined anticyclone near 70W that may amplify and allow that feature to organize. I have not looked at the forecast for shear in the central Caribbean but current conditions in the Eastern Caribbean are as good as I have seen them this season.

Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3339. BurnedAfterPosting
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:48 (GMT)
Quoting gwadaman:


I have to agree, Kman has been saying the same thing.


no kman is talking about the area just east of Barbados at 59W
3338. gwadaman
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:47 (GMT)
Quoting stoormfury:
the area at 45w is very interesting. while most are viewing 99l i think this area has more potential to develop than 99L


I have to agree, Kman has been saying the same thing.
Member Since: 8.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
3337. 7544
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:47 (GMT)
Quoting Acemmett90:

thats the reason im asking


link Link
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
3336. Dakster
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:47 (GMT)
Quoting mikatnight:


Many residents and even some hurricane scientists who experienced the northern eyewall of Andrew reported that the wind gained a "freakish velocity" (Brown 1993). Residents near the center of the storm, reported that around 5:00 a.m., as the eye was coming ashore, the wind reach an deafening roar, "like a freight train running across the roof" (Brown 1993). At this point, many people reported their homes experienced a deep vibration until the structure failed (roof ripped off, walls blew out). Site investigations after the storm reported that even automobiles flew through the air for a short distance. As Andrew's eyewall passed over south Dade County, thousands of residents in panic went from room to room, as sections of their homes were being destroyed. Many residents stayed in hallways, closets, and bathrooms, until conditions improved around 7.00 a.m. on the 24th.

I'm not that curious.


They forgot to mention the horrific light and sounds of transformers exploding. Sounded like someone launching RPG's at you.

Been there, done that- I can understand someone not wanting to be "curious".
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
3335. AussieStorm
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:46 (GMT)
From The Caribbean Weather Center
Wx Update, Interim Tropical, Sun9, 1p

--My confidence continues to increase that we're about to enter an active period for Tropical weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical WAVE's:
--WAVE moving W@20 across Yucatan Peninsula embedded in dry air mass, limiting squalls.
* *
--NOAA analyzes WAVE 64W, S of 18N, moving WNW@15...but UofWisc shows impressive vorticity-maximum's lies farthest N near 54W & coincides nicely with visible rotation & squalls just W of 15N/55W, suggesting to me the WAVE lies near 55W. ITCZ-related squalls extend from 15N/55W WSW thru S Windwards then W along 12N to 72W...all moving W...activity in S Windwards should shift N into N Windwards & S Leewards later today & tonight. Tropical LO formation NOT likely.
* *
--NOAA analyzes WAVE 47W, S of 16N, moving W@15. I'll grant that weak vorticity reaches its N-most point near 47W, but it's not much of a WAVE.
* *
--WAVE near 36W, S of 20N, moving W@15. GFS gradually strengthens WAVE & may form weak LO 16N/50W late tomorrow / moves strong WAVE or weak LO thru Leewards Wed12 / Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico Wed12 night into Thu13 / Dom Rep late Thu13 / T&C and SE Bahamas Fri14 / W Bahamas Sat15 / FL Sun16. Euro runs about 24hrs later & tracks WAVE/weak LO over Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico thru Cuba) Thu13 night thru weekend. I'll stick with my 10% risk for Tropical LO formation from this feature thru Sun16.
* *
--WAVE 22W, S of 18N, moving W@15-20 VERY IMPRESSIVE, with well-defined low-mid-level circulation & focal point 14N/22W...I'd say there's a 70% chance surface LO may form at the focal point along WAVE over next 48hrs as WAVE moves W@15-20. NOAA gives this a medium (30-50% chance).

--GFS & GFDL begins a WNW turn within 48hrs, and pulls LO into a higher-shear environment toward a TROF along 50W which weakens sub-Tropical RIDGE...Tropical LO may reach 30N/60W where it dissipates along TROF Mon17.

--HWRF similar to GFS/GFDL, but rebuilds sub-Tropical RIDGE Fri14, which may keep LO S of 20N as it continues W after Fri14.

--Euro also fails to weaken sub-Tropical RIDGE sufficiently to pull LO much to the N...instead gradually strengthens LO as it crosses 60W near 19N (just N of Leewards) Mon17 / N of Puerto Rico Tue18...after which there's a chance W extent of RIDGE might weaken, allowing more-significant gain in Latitude. EURO MODEL SOLUTION COULD BRING A HURRICANE INTO PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS OR WATERS N OF BAHAMAS Wed19.

NOGAPS & Canadian models fail to initiate any sort of WNW motion...NOGAPS places LO 13N-14N/45W late Fri14 / Canadian 14N/51W late Fri14... NOGAPS & CANADIAN SOLUTIONS COULD BRING A HURRICANE INTO PARTS OF E CARIBBEAN by Sun16-Mon17 / FARTHER W IN CARIBBEAN THEREAFTER.

MY OPINION:
It's very likely (70%) this will be 1st Tropical LO of the season. Evolution of sub-Tropical RIDGE (and TROF near 50W that may weaken RIDGE) will dictate whether LO moves toward E Caribbean as early as Sun16...or Bahamas as early as Wed19...or dissipates S&E of Bermuda in a similar time frame. Credible models are spread across the possible solutions, and it's impossible to make a useful guess on the eventual track...but I would tend to give less weight to NOGAPS/Canadian solution, so E Caribbean may be at less risk than areas N of 20N.

* *
--Next WAVE may exit Africa tomorrow. GFS develops this into a significant Tropical LO as it drifts slowly W to 13N/30W Sat15 / crossing 60W near 19N Thu20 / raking much of the Bahamas as a Hurricane Sat22 / reinforcing HI over NE US Mon24 prevents Hurricane from turning N, causing it to plow into S Florida. It's WAY too early to be concerned about this feature...but it hints the coming increase in activity may create more-than-one Tropical LO.

* * * * * * * *

Wx Update, E Caribbean, Sat8, 6a

Morning Graphical QuickScat & IMAGERY: Venezuela S of 11N & Trinidad ENE-E@0-15 with scattered squalls to 35k / elsewhere E of 67W throughout E Caribbean NE-ENE@13-18 with a few mild 20-25k squalls.

SYNOPSIS:
Tropical WAVEs:
--Weak WAVE 78W, S of Cuba to 10N, supporting only a few scattered squalls mainly 14N to Jamaica as it moves W rapidly near 20k.
--Weak WAVE 57W, S of 14N, moving W@15, supports enhanced squalls mainly within the ITCZ btwn 60W-55W.
--Farther East, things are a bit more confusing...
--Strong vorticity (spin) marks low-mid-level LO at 13N/51W, moving W@10-15...Canadian model develops into weak Tropical LO crossing Guadeloupe late Mon10 / Puerto Rico late Tue11 / T&C early Thu13 / C Bahamas Fri14. Other models fail to develop a significant closed LO...instead moving a very weak WAVE with little significant weather (indeed light winds & few significant squalls) except for a NE-SE wind shift in Windwards/Leewards about Tue11 & continuing to move W-WNW, bringing some increase in winds & seas & squalls to Bahamas Thu13 or Fri14 onward.
--NOAA identifies WAVE 40W, S of 16N, moving W@15. I have a hard time finding a WAVE in this area, and the GFS seems more interested in the WAVE farther E...
--NOAA identifies WAVE 20W-28W, S of 20N, moving W@15...but I analyze this WAVE nearer 30W as a broad area of vorticity S of 25N from Cape Verde area to 38W, as far S as 9N, moving W@15. More models suggest this has some potential to develop into weak Tropical LO...GFS has it crossing 40W near 14N tomorrow night / crossing Windwards-Leewards probably as a strong Tropical WAVE Wed12 / moving along Greater Antilles thru the week to W Cuba over weekend. NOGAPS seems a compromise btwn Canadian & GFS...making the WAVE near 50W today the more-significant feature & moving it as a strong WAVE or weak LO thru Windwards-Leewards late Tue11.
--MY OPINION:
Neither WAVE should develop into a LO that persists for long or is very significant, but there is a chance (maybe a 10% chance) the feature along 50W and/or the feature near 30W develops a weak Tropical LO that probably fails to persist for long and is not very significant.
--OUTLOOK:
GFS is more exited about developing a WAVE exiting Africa today into a Tropical LO near 40W Tue11-Wed12...but it falls-apart into a WAVE entering E Caribbean Mon17. Also more excited developing the next WAVE into a LO crossing SE Caribbean Wed19. And develops WAVE exiting Africa Fri21 into a strong Tropical LO which could cross 60W late August.
--CONCLUSION:
Decreasing vertical wind-shear & other more-supportive atmospheric dynamics are likely to bring an end to the quiet we've thus-far enjoyed in the Tropics this Season...I expect 1-or-more significant Tropical LOs to form before the end of August, with a reasonable chance we see some sort of Tropical LO formation within the next 5-10 days...though it's impossible to guess whether any of this will impact the Caribbean.

* * *

MEANWHILE...
Sub-Tropical Atlantic RIDGE weakens thru Tue11, allowing Trades to moderate...then RIDGE strengthen thru Thu13, and, combined with stronger WAVE, brings significant increase in winds & seas & squalls to many areas.

F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad & Grenada & Los Testigos areas: another surge of squalls to 30-40k this afternoon thru tomorrow morning, then decreasing to mostly-dry with only a few isolated squalls thru Wed12, but some risk for squalls after Wed12.
S Windwards: similar, but activity may persist thru mid-day tomorrow.
N Windwards: mostly dry today, scattered squalls to 30k after midnight tonight thru tomorrow night, not much activity Mon10 or Tue11, but squalls possible Wed12.
Leewards: mostly dry with only isolated morning showers & mild squalls thru Mon10, but a few squalls Mon10 night onward, and widespread squalls to 30-40k Wed12 into Thu13 morning.
Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico: similar, but no increase in activity till late Tue11, and widespread activity not till Thu13.
Dom Rep: isolated showers & mild squalls anytime, but more coverage of stronger squalls Thu13 onward.
Venezuela near 65W: isolated squalls to 35k thru tomorrow, then mostly dry.
ABCs: isolated squalls to 35k thru Mon10 morning, then mostly dry.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
3334. Drakoen
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:46 (GMT)
It's gonna take another 24 hours to repair this:
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
3333. annabelle27
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:46 (GMT)
It may be way too soon to ask this, but does anybody think this system(s) off the coast of Africa could effect travel plans from Houston to Cozumel on August 20 - 25?
3331. ALCoastGambler
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:44 (GMT)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

The Caribbean and Gulf coast if it develops.
There you go again...lol
3330. 7544
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:44 (GMT)
weve been watching this wave all week die and come back remember the nogaps showed it as a ts going over into the cab a few days ago then droped it now it might be making a comback
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
3329. rwdobson
10. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:44 (GMT)
"from the looks of it what are the possbile targets of this possible monster"

since it hasn't even formed yet, there is no way any forecast tool has any skill in predicting this.

print out the pdf map of the atlantic basin and throw darts at it.
Member Since: 12.06.2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1574

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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