Hurricane Felicia weakening; Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:10 (GMT)

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Hurricane Felicia is steadily weakening as it heads west-northwest over cooler waters. Recent satellite imagery shows that the eye is less distinct, and the tops of thunderstorms surrounding the eye are warming, indicating that the updrafts sustaining the eyewall are weakening. The storm appears rather ragged and lopsided, and probably is not as strong as the advertised Category 3 status.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia have now fallen below the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane, and will continue to decline as the storm tracks west-northwest over cooler waters. By Saturday morning, SSTs should fall to 24.5°C. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next three days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. On Sunday, Felicia will be encountering strong westerly winds aloft, which should create 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. This should be enough shear to tear the storm apart, thanks to its weakened condition due to the cool SSTs underneath it. By Monday night, when Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, most of the computer models predict Felicia will have dissipated. One exception is the GFDL model, which predicts Felicia could be a tropical depression with 35 mph winds when it passes just south of the Big Island on Monday night. In general, the models have been trending more south with their recent runs, so it currently appears that the Big Island is most likely to feel the most impact from Felicia's rain and winds. While the current forecast calls for Felicia to have a minor impact on Hawaii, the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to be out in full force over the next two days to monitor the storm. The NOAA jet flies into Felicia today, and will drop a series of dropsondes that will gather data to be fed into tonight's 00Z computer model runs. Regular low-level flights by the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to begin Saturday afternoon.

Typhoon Morakot hits Taiwan
Typhoon Morakot has moved ashore over northern Taiwan this morning, and is battering the island as a strong Category 1 storm with 95 mph winds. At 9:30 pm local time today, the Taipei airport recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, and a pressure of 972 mb. Morakot is expected to weaken today as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of the island. Storm chaser James Reynolds is intercepting the storm and will be posting live updates on his typhoonfury.com web site and twitter for those who want to follow the storm. Morakot is also visible on Taiwan radar.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Morakot as it made landfall over northern Taiwan at 21:30 local time on 8/7/09. At the time, Taipei was experiencing sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.

I'll have an update on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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1205. GoodOleBudSir
9. elokuuta 2009 klo 00:47 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Good morning all

But the rest of them show anything but that. The odds are severely stacked up against the ECMWF Model this morning, that's for damn sure, :).


Can you back that up please?
Member Since: 30.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 261
1204. catastropheadjuster
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:28 (GMT)
Quoting linkays:


I just had that happen to me too a few minutes ago!


ME TOO
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3642
1203. catastropheadjuster
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:26 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 24.08.2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3642
1202. OnTheFlats
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:21 (GMT)
A lot of big fish have worms near the tail section. I will never eat swordfish, ever! I pulled a 3ft worm out of a 200lber once. BTW 95% of all swordfish you eat have never had a chance to breed. All big Grouper have worms. Nasty stuff but nevertheless smaller fish are great eating. Sorry for the info.
Member Since: 29.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1201. Elena85Vet
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Quoting StormW:
If you go here, click on play, go to 24 frames, this runs loops about every 15 min. To zoom in, hold the shift key, left click and drag your mouse diagonally to the right corner.

EUMETSAT


Class is in session. Once again, thanks for sharing your efforts Storm. :)
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619
1200. linkays
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:21 (GMT)
Quoting futuremet:
A username and password are being requested by http://server.duffysmvp.com. The site says: "server.duffysmvp.com"


I just had that happen to me too a few minutes ago!
Member Since: 20.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
1199. OnTheFlats
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Yeah,but i was told that if you cook'em good they are harmless, but still the idea.
I know, they taste the same but the idea kills me. The old timers don't care so much and I give them all my fish and the Russians I work with but I like the Red's and Snook. I'm out to go practice for the first annual south florida paddle board fishing tournament. Check out ARKPADDLEBOARDS.COM great new hobby and lots of fun.
Member Since: 29.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1198. stormdude77
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:17 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!!!
1197. SouthALWX
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Stupid login popup box .....
Member Since: 27.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
1192. Patrap
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:15 (GMT)
Was fine time last night here with Green Day.

yeah,,Im a 49 yr old rocker.

They kicked butt,and made the house cry as well.. Wake me up,when sept Ends was a big reminder of 06 in the Superdome.



Green Day delivered a tour de force at the New Orleans Arena

by Keith Spera, Music writer, The Times-Picayune
Saturday August 08, 2009, 2:49 AM


All other ambitions and expectations aside, Billie Joe Armstrong, Mike Dirnt and Tre Cool are very, very good at being Green Day.






Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
1191. PensacolaBuoy
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:14 (GMT)
Quoting Acemmett90:
off topic but just had to post this my dad with the dolphins cheerleaders

This post is putting a password query on the blog when you first go to the page. I'm sure the photo is good though!
Member Since: 28.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 370
1188. Cavin Rawlins
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:13 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
456~ Very cute:) Keep it away from the crows..


lol,

===========

Havnt decided a name as yet.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1187. futuremet
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
A username and password are being requested by http://server.duffysmvp.com. The site says: "server.duffysmvp.com"
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
1186. mikatnight
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
A little off topic, but this is the new addition to our family. You can give your rating here.



Quoting mobilegirl81:
Yeah,but i was told that if you cook'em good they are harmless, but still the idea.


A rather unfortunate entry sequence...
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1185. Dakster
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
456 - Cute kitten...
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9668
1184. Patrap
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:12 (GMT)
G'morning SRT.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
1183. Patrap
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:11 (GMT)

Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
1182. sngalla
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:11 (GMT)
Cute 456! The name?
Member Since: 18.02.2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
1181. SomeRandomTexan
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:13 (GMT)
morning pat and well said
Member Since: 30.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
1180. PanhandleChuck
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:11 (GMT)
My sister and her family came down from Ohio this weekend and are staying in Ft Walton Beach. By the looks of the GOM radar, they are about to get a "little" wet.
Member Since: 13.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
1178. Dakster
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:11 (GMT)
Quoting SouthALWX:
fish .. have .. worms .. too ..0.o WHY did you have to tell me that WHY!


You are what you eat... Apparently for a fish this is true.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9668
1177. Skyepony (Mod)
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:10 (GMT)
456~ Very cute:) Keep it away from the crows..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
1176. SomeRandomTexan
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:10 (GMT)
very cute W456!
Member Since: 30.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
1175. Patrap
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:10 (GMT)
Well, b-4 ya go deeming a African wave a CV imminent threat,..or a CV Godzilla,..how bout we get it off the Continent and see if it sustains for 36-48 hours.

Thats usually how we get a feel for its sustainability.

G'morning to the www wu-room.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
1174. SouthALWX
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)
fish .. have .. worms .. too ..0.o WHY did you have to tell me that WHY!
Member Since: 27.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
1173. Skyepony (Mod)
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Looks like Felicia's shear crept back up to 8kts. The Ocean Heat content is slowly beginning to weaken her too. Over the next 12 hrs very low shear like lastnight is expected to reappear so may see a another bit of improvement before OHC + returned shear moves in together..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
1172. mobilegirl81
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Yeah,but i was told that if you cook'em good they are harmless, but still the idea.
Member Since: 31.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
1171. Cavin Rawlins
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
A little off topic, but this is the new addition to our family. You can give your rating here.

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1170. mikatnight
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:07 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
Good Morning Wunderblogfolk,
Will this be 'the one' that develops this season?

ShortWaveLoop
We are not responsible for its development; we should be sensitive to those in its path if it does.


Mornin' Ms C -

That should be this blog's mantra:

We are not responsible for a storm's development; we should be sensitive to those in its path if it does.
Member Since: 18.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1169. nrtiwlnvragn
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:06 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
What time is Recon supposed to intercept Felicia


They just took off, looks like Tropical Atlantic is not automatically picking it up. You will need to copy from URPN15 on the right side of the page under East / Central Pacific Basin and paste the data into the decoder.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10458
1168. futuremet
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Quoting Drakoen:
All the computer models with the exception of the ECMWF show development off the African coast early next week. The wave has a nice mid level rotation and as Adrian mentioned, SAL and shear should not be a problem.


Basically means that there is nothing to stop it :). There was always some complication inhibiting tropical cyclogenesis this year.
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
1167. Drakoen
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:03 (GMT)
All the computer models with the exception of the ECMWF show development off the African coast early next week. The wave has a nice mid level rotation and as Adrian mentioned, SAL and shear should not be a problem.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1166. OnTheFlats
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 15:01 (GMT)
Quoting mobilegirl81:
We caught 38. It was a good day.
Nice, we catch tons of them here and I mostly fish for Snook, Redfish, Bonefish, Permit and tarpon but those specks make more money for me than any other fish. Ours in South Florida are wormy in the summer though and are better eating in the winter.
Member Since: 29.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1164. OnTheFlats
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Each one gets bigger and bigger.
I know, see my pancake theory on post 1135. LOL
Member Since: 29.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1163. futuremet
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Good vorticity showing up with both waves

Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
1162. mobilegirl81
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:58 (GMT)
It looks like the door is inching open out there.
Member Since: 31.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
1161. Chicklit
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:57 (GMT)
Quoting hurricane23:
Here you can see SAL and upper conditions wont be an issue (for the time being).

Were now at the time of the year.

Second that.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
1159. mobilegirl81
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:56 (GMT)
We caught 38. It was a good day.
Member Since: 31.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
1158. Skyepony (Mod)
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:56 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
What time is Recon supposed to intercept Felicia


BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 08/1800Z

Gonzo flew all around the outside of Felicia this morning, none over..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36058
1157. Dakster
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:56 (GMT)
So the question that begs the mind is, what is the chance that Ana will become Andrew's evil sister?
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9668
1156. OnTheFlats
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:54 (GMT)
Quoting mobilegirl81:
This one will get its act together quick.
Agreed, a classic CV storm? Probably wouldn't make it all the way which is good but could be fun to actually look at something in the atlantic. By the way, nice cooler of Seatrout!! How many of those did you catch?
Member Since: 29.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
1155. HIEXPRESS
8. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:54 (GMT)
I like this pattern change (however temporary) over the E Conus as it opened my FL E Coast beach up for a good long late afternoon low tide run yesterday without thunderstorms (sorry about your luck, Tampa - your storm's anvil provided perfect shade for me:). Working, lurking, today & busy. Pressure change maybe exacerbating certain ailments - 3 patients already all the same?

Used to think electricity attracted hurricanes - power gets knocked out & they leave, but it looks like preparedness repels them. Let's get complacent - maybe they will return.

There are no "experts" , just more accomplished artists, and some blind squirrels that manage to find a few nuts. (Dr.s excluded)
Member Since: 13.10.2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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