August hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 31. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 15:02 (GMT)

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The Atlantic remains quiet today, with no threat areas to discuss and no models calling for tropical storm formation over the seven days. Not much has changed in the Atlantic since my mid-July Atlantic hurricane outlook posted two weeks ago. However, we are now at the cusp of when hurricane activity begins a steep rise (Figure 1). Early August is typically when wind shear begins a major decline, sea surface temperatures continue to rise, African dust and dry air outbreaks diminish, and the African Monsoon and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) become quite active, spawning frequent and powerful tropical waves. These tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.

Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, ten out of fourteen years (71%) have had a named storm form during the first half of August, with an average of 1.4 named storms per year. The last nine years in a row have had a named storm form during the first half of August, but the previous four year stretch (1996 - 1999), did not have any storms form.


Figure 1. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows a steep rise at the beginning of August. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Eighty-five percent of all major hurricanes form in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10° and 20° latitude. This region also spawns 60% of all weaker hurricanes and tropical storms. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the MDR have slowly but steadily risen during July, and now stand at a respectable 0.5°C (0.9°F) above average (Figure 2). SSTs are well below the record levels observed in 2005 and 2006, when they were up to 2°C above average over large portions of the Main Development Region. Still, there is plenty of heat energy available for strong hurricanes to form this year. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been below average over the past month, driving below average trade winds. Weaker trade winds don't mix up as much cold water from the depths, and cause less evaporative cooling. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued slightly below average-strength trade winds through mid-August, so SST anomalies should continue to warm during this period.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 30, 2009. SSTs were about 0.5°C (0.9°F) above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of an El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño
El Niño conditions have remained steady over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niño 3.4 region", remain at 0.8°C above average, which is 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Figure 3). An increase of another 0.2°C would push the current El Niño into the "moderate" category. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory earlier this month, and predicts that El Niño conditions will intensify over the next few months, and last through the coming winter. The latest set of mid-July runs of the El Niño computer models are almost universally calling for El Niño conditions to remain well-established for the peak months of hurricane season, August - October. It is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed in 2009 due to the strong upper-level winds and resulting wind shear an El Niño event usually brings to the tropical Atlantic. The NOAA CFS model is calling for continued above-average wind shear over most of the tropical Atlantic for the August-September-October peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niño 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 31, 2009, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.83°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in July over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, but in August the jet stream retreats to the north, and wind shear typically falls.

Wind shear over the past month (Figure 4) has mostly been above average over the tropical Atlantic, particularly over the Caribbean. The presence of El Niño conditions over the tropical Eastern Pacific may be primarily responsible for this enhanced shear. However, wind shear has been slowly falling over the southern portion of the Caribbean and southern MDR over the past week, and is forecast by the GFS model to fall to near-average levels by mid-August. This should present a more favorable environment for hurricanes to form in by mid-month.


Figure 4. Departure of wind shear from average in m/s for the 1-month period ending July 27, 2009. Higher than average wind shear (blue colors) was observed over the Caribbean. The El Niño conditions over the tropical Eastern Pacific may be primarily responsible for this enhanced shear. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past month. Expect dust from Africa to diminish in the coming month, allowing a greater chance for African tropical waves to develop.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern has remained virtually the same all summer. A persistent trough of low pressure has remained entrenched over the Eastern U.S., bringing cool and relatively moist weather to the northeastern portion of the country. This trough is strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the strong trough over the Eastern U.S., which decreases the hurricane risk to the U.S. Gulf Coast. It is often difficult to break a months-long steering current pattern like the current one, and it's reasonable to forecast that the current steering pattern will continue to dominate into September.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 71% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of August. However, this is not a typical year. The ITCZ has been remarkably inactive, and there have been an unusually low number of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. Although SST anomalies should continue to rise and wind shear should slowly fall over the next few weeks, the computer models suggest no significant changes to the current inactive weather pattern. I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the first half of August.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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2208. Claudette1234
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Thanks Cyclonekid.

The Developed is very clear so next NHC report must named as Enrique.
Member Since: 21.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
2207. srada
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:44 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 17.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
2206. nrtiwlnvragn
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:43 (GMT)
12Z surface analysis adds a tropical wave ~18W


Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
2205. jurakantaino
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Quoting sporteguy03:


That was what I was thinking, just for information to lurkers and those learning ITCZ convection can produce sometimes Tropical Cyclones.
I'M GLAD YOU MENTION IT. Many here seems to forget that specially from August to early October the ITCZ had produced some Hefty Storms. Gilbert? Not sure.Ok,I know is an "el niño" year.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
2204. AllStar17
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:42 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
2203. Seflhurricane
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:42 (GMT)
is it me or the tropical wave's thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated.
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
2202. cyclonekid
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:41 (GMT)
Quoting Claudette1234:
What storm name corresponde to 98E at 112W 12N?

If you're talking about the name it would get if it became a TS...Enrique
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1715
2201. Patrap
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:41 (GMT)
2200. AllStar17
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:41 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Dont take this the wrong way...but, i don't see anything much to look at. The only thing really in the possible making and its a long shot would be a blob located at 10N 50W and maybe something SubTropical near South Carolina Coast!


Why are you not interested in the wave S of the Cape Verdes? It does show some promise, IMO.
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
2199. stormdude77
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:40 (GMT)
2198. Cavin Rawlins
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2197. TampaSpin
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Dont take this the wrong way...but, i don't see anything much to look at. The only thing really in the possible making and its a long shot would be a blob located at 10N 50W and maybe something SubTropical near South Carolina Coast!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2196. srada
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:38 (GMT)
From this animation, looks like it's moving away from you. Sometimes the tail end of these fronts will spin off and end up down here, tho...but don't rely on me for knowing!!! There may be more rain heading your way, but from this view looks like that would come from the west, not the east. Waiting for Dr. Masters to give his analysis of present conditions.
Thanks 456 for the explanation of the influences on waves within the ITCZ.


Thanks..it was still an informative explanation..Im still learning this myself too!
Member Since: 17.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
2195. AllStar17
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:37 (GMT)
According to the SHIPS intensity models for 98E and 99E, it would seem that 99E would be the one to watch, as it takes it up to hurricane strength as it travels WNW / NW
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
2194. Cavin Rawlins
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2193. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:37 (GMT)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
12:00 PM UTC August 3 2009
===============================

An area of disturbed weather (99E) located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has become better organized over the past several hours. Conditions appear favorable for additional development.. and this system could become a tropical depression over the next day or so as it moves west-northwest at 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
There is a moderate chance for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone

System #2
---------
Showers and thunderstorm associated with a broad area or low pressure (98E) located about 700 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California has increased and become better organized over the past several hours. This system also has a potential to develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so as it moves west to west-northwest at around 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
There is a moderate chance for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43690
2192. Cavin Rawlins
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Tropical Update
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2191. weathermanwannabe
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


they break away as the close off. Just like how an upper low closes and off and leave the TUTT.

If it does not break away, it will follow the ITCZ and most likely remain weak.

Tropical Depression 6 remained embdedded wihtin the ITCZ before it became Felix.


Very informative......Thank You So Much..
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8283
2190. Chicklit
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:34 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
The monsoon trough extends very far out from Africa, all the way to 45W. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are basically equatorial troughs but the ITCZ is convergence between SE and NE Trades (not very conducive for circulation) but the monsoon trough lies between SW and NE (very conducive for circulation. Out feature nearing 30W is embedded in the monsoon trough, so be careful when attributing the likelihood of development based on "its embedded in the ITCZ". The monsoon trough accounts for more than 80% of EPAC and WPAC cyclones.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
2189. Chicklit
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:33 (GMT)
Quoting srada:
Hey Chicklit

Yeah, Im in Wilm, NC and its been cloudy and rainy here all weekend and still is..we have had some thunderstorms all weekend..so we dont need the rain from this

From this animation, looks like it's moving away from you. Sometimes the tail end of these fronts will spin off and end up down here, tho...but don't rely on me for knowing!!! There may be more rain heading your way, but from this view looks like that would come from the west, not the east. Waiting for Dr. Masters to give his analysis of present conditions.
Thanks 456 for the explanation of the influences on waves within the ITCZ.Link
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
2188. Seflhurricane
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:31 (GMT)
any new update on the tropical wave near the cape verde islands
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
2187. Cavin Rawlins
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:30 (GMT)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Generally speaking, what would it take for this "embedded" feature to break away from the ITCZ in the Atlantic and make it into the sub-tropical ridge area?.......Alternatively, and if does not break away, does it keep moving west into the e-pac?.........Thanks


they break away as the close off. Just like how an upper low closes and off and leave the TUTT.

If it does not break away, it will follow the ITCZ and most likely remain weak.

Tropical Depression 6 remained embdedded wihtin the ITCZ before it became Felix.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2186. Chicklit
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Is this 98 and 99?
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
2185. sporteguy03
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
Rainbow imagery revealed the postion of the ITCZ near 11-12N. The feature nearing 30W and a little south of the ITCZ near 9-10N. The ITCZ is rather high and could only mean one thing - the CATL is not as stable as one may think. Also notice the convective burst associated with the feature approaching 30W.


That was what I was thinking, just for information to lurkers and those learning ITCZ convection can produce sometimes Tropical Cyclones.
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
2184. RitaEvac
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Texas Heat...

Number of July 100 degrees or above days:

New Braunsfels: 27
San Antonio: 26
Austin: 26
La Grange: 23
College Station: 23
Giddings: 20
Victoria: 17
Sugar Land: 16
Brenham: 16
Huntsville: 14
Wharton: 9
Houston/IAH: 4
Conroe: 4
Tomball: 4

Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
2183. srada
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:24 (GMT)
Hey Chicklit

Yeah, Im in Wilm, NC and its been cloudy and rainy here all weekend and still is..we have had some thunderstorms all weekend..so we dont need the rain from this
Member Since: 17.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
2182. weathermanwannabe
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:
The monsoon trough extends very far out from Africa, all the way to 45W. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are basically equatorial troughs but the ITCZ is convergence between SE and NE Trades (not very conducive for circulation) but the monsoon trough lies between SW and NE (very conducive for circulation. Out feature nearing 30W is embedded in the monsoon trough, so be careful when attributing the likelihood of development based on "its embedded in the ITCZ". The monsoon trough accounts for more than 80% of EPAC and WPAC cyclones.


Generally speaking, what would it take for this "embedded" feature to break away from the ITCZ in the Atlantic and make it into the sub-tropical ridge area?.......Alternatively, and if does not break away, does it keep moving west into the e-pac?.........Thanks
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8283
2181. Claudette1234
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:23 (GMT)
What storm name corresponde to 98E at 112W 12N?
Member Since: 21.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
2180. cyclonekid
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Could be something SubTropical trying to develop off the South Carolina coast.
Don't tell me that...I live in NC and don't need a Tropical System right now :D
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1715
2179. Chicklit
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Hi Srada,
Dunno. Haven't heard anything about it yet.
But I've seen systems come from this area and swoop south toward Florida under certain conditions. Certainly not qualified to say what, if anything, will happen here.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
2178. HurricaneSwirl
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting Weather456:


looks like it might be trying to consolidate a little. id like them to give it a yellow circle to see what they think will prevent it from forming

(i know there will be a few sensitive folks that will take the statement the wrong way and think im bashing on the nhc and being a "wishcaster", and im not, i actually want to see it and what they have to say about it other than a quick mention in the TWD)

Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2177. msphar
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:19 (GMT)
MDR looks benign this AM guess 2009 will now take its rightful place among the outliers of late starters.
Member Since: 20.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
2176. srada
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:18 (GMT)
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BROAD 5H TROF BECOMES FLATTER TUE AND WED WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO DRYING UPPER LEVELS.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES TUE WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL
BE ALL BUT NONEXISTENT. DROPPED POPS INLAND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE COAST.

WINDS ALOFT REMAIN ALMOST DUE WEST ON WED...KEEPING AIRMASS DRY
ABOVE 700 MB. 00Z WRF DROPS A SHORTWAVE/MCS INTO THE AREA WED
NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS. FEATURE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDBACK AND IS NOT SEEN IN THE 00Z GFS OR THE 12Z
ECMWF. EVEN IF WE ASSUME THE WRF IS CORRECT AND THIS FEATURE WILL
EXIST...TIMING AND LOCATION...AS WELL AS STRENGTH
...REMAIN IN
QUESTION. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HAVE DECIDED TO
IGNORE THIS FEATURE FOR NOW AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED AND WED
NIGHT.

EACH DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT SEA BREEZE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LOW TO MID 70S.

from Wilm NWS...maybe development?
Member Since: 17.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
2175. futuremet
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting WxLogic:


Wouldn't be surprised... W ATL conditions above the Greater Antilles are not that bad for development.


Yes I must admit, NAMMY's forecast this time does seem reasonable. The upper level low just north of it is causing some upper level diffluence, which is enhancing convection. Nevertheless, these diffluent winds are also a hindrance for it to effectually to consolidate itself. Wind shear just to the west of it is actually favorable, and the air is sufficiently moist for it sustain its moisture. The NAM develops it when it reaches the Bahamas. However, I still think it is a little too cyclogenically biased.
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
2174. SomeRandomTexan
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Good morning everyone!

I haven't been on lately (stupid busy lifestyle)... but it doesn't look like I have missed much...

Looks like the Atl may get a little more active...
Member Since: 30.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
2173. srada
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:14 (GMT)
2142. Chicklit 1:28 PM GMT on August 03, 2009
Is there any chance what's off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina could develop?


Good Morning..is this some development going on?
Member Since: 17.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772
2172. tropicfreak
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ida replaced Isabel, Isabel devastated my home area in Virgina when I lived there. My bets are on Ida. Plus it seems to fit,
Irene ,Issac, Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, and Ida.


Where in VA do you live?
Member Since: 2.09.2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
2171. cyclonekid
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Hello in here where is everyone.......

I know right, it's like a cave w/ nothing ... this is when Patrap puts up the 'Nuttin' guy. :D LOL!!
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1715
2170. Cavin Rawlins
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2169. Cavin Rawlins
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:09 (GMT)
00Z UKMET, GFS, CMC



06Z GFS

Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2168. TampaSpin
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:
Is that something off "the Carolina coast" I see?


Could be something SubTropical trying to develop off the South Carolina coast.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2167. WxLogic
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Quoting futuremet:
Interesting lol





Wouldn't be surprised... W ATL conditions above the Greater Antilles are not that bad for development.
Member Since: 14.08.2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
2166. TampaSpin
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Now things are back to normal.......the only short range model showing anything developing is the CMC !
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2165. presslord
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Is that something off "the Carolina coast" I see?
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
2164. Thundercloud01221991
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Hello in here where is everyone.......
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
2163. cyclonekid
3. elokuuta 2009 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just right click on the image and select copy image location.
Ok Thanks.
Member Since: 14.07.2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1715

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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