High wind shear ripping into 97L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 20. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 13:49 (GMT)

Share this Blog
2
+

A strong tropical wave (97L) a few hundred miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown less organized today as it tracks west at 15 - 20 mph. The wave is moving underneath an upper-level trough of low pressure, which is bringing 30 knots of wind shear to 97L. While there is a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 97L, there is no longer any low-level spiral banding or rotation of the cloud pattern. This morning's QuikSCAT pass at 5:35 am EDT showed sustained winds of 35 mph a few hundred miles east of Barbados, but there was no surface circulation evident. The islands of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique can expect heavy rain and wind gusts to 50 mph as 97L moves through the Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon and tonight, but 97L will not become a tropical depression.

Wind shear along the path of 97L is forecast to remain in the high 25 - 35 knot range for at least the next three days. This should prevent further development of 97L, and I expect the disturbance will be gradually torn apart during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives 97L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical storm development over the next seven days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of African wave 97L.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning. As 97L moves through the islands, you may want to follow local observations there using our wundermap for the region.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2613 - 2563

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

2613. popartpete
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 22:00 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
The energy from 97L will enhance the development in the the Bahamas......

Word, that's what I think too! Others may differ, but it's really, really o.k. to have divergent views. For all those who differ in opinion are respected just the same, at least by me!
Member Since: 10.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
2612. WarEagle8
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 16:46 (GMT)
One more woman here in Dunedin, Florida.....just west of Tampa! Watching the tropics!
Member Since: 19.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
2611. MahFL
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 16:01 (GMT)
Futuremet, please do more studying and use the correct terms.

""CDO" is an acronym that stands for "central dense overcast". This is the cirrus cloud shield that results from the thunderstorms in the eyewall of a tropical cyclone and its rainbands"

Blobs DO NOT have CDO's.

Thanks.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
2610. popartpete
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 15:08 (GMT)
To me, it appears that the Bahamas AOI is growing larger, and trying to absorb everything around it, as it spits a tremendous amount of moisture northward, where itself could go in the future. It's bottom right section seems to be beckoning to 97l to join it, and 97L seems to be elongating towards the Bahamas AOI. I personally think, that 97L's trip over the Caribbean islands is a non-issue, whatever energy remains of it will be absorbed into the ever growing Bahamas AOI, which will be Ana. This is just my forecast, and I am self-taught. Please no one attack my theory too badly. If I'm wrong, I have no problem with being a horse's behind, lol!
Member Since: 10.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
2609. jurakantaino
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:33 (GMT)
COC about 60 miles south of PR,some thunderstorms approaching the coast,can see them from my house.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
2608. cg2916
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:33 (GMT)
Guys, new blog!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
2606. stoormfury
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:28 (GMT)
i am continuing to watch an area atn47w in association with a tropical wave. there is a very small and vigorous circulation within tnat wave near 8N 47W which is moving to the north of west. there is no convergence as yet but there is good divergence this is definitely a suspect area
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
2605. jurakantaino
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:23 (GMT)
San Juan radar doppler is the best source to follow the wave(97L) at this moment.
Member Since: 31.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
2604. WPBHurricane05
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:22 (GMT)
Would not be surprised if we get a tropical depression out of the Bahamas blob this week.

97L might try something too.
Member Since: 31.07.2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2603. cg2916
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:22 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 21.12.2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
2602. DaytonaBeachWatcher
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting futuremet:


Preslord, I'm surprised you are not tracking this, since the Carolinas may be affected.

omg, now you have done it!
Member Since: 29.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1135
2601. popartpete
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Quoting hunkerdown:
I used to visit Barnegat Light on a weekly basis every summer from late 70s to mid 80s. Had friends there. Great fishing.
As it was once so eloquently put, "On the coast of New Jersey are some of the finest beaches to be found anywhere in the world. Here, on a narrow neck of land between the Atlantic Ocean and Barnegat Bay, is Seaside Heights, "The Town That Fun Built". I hope our beautiful beaches will not take the wrath of any of these brewing systems.
Member Since: 10.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
2600. futuremet
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:21 (GMT)
Shear continues to decrease, and this system continues to become more organized. A quasi-CDO seem to established, as the COC continues to be shielded beneath the convection.



Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
2599. sporteguy03
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Quoting MrSea:
sounds good wannabe

so guys do you think we'll see the bahamas spin become an invest today? i sure hope so

and also, ive been on this blog for the past 3 days now and i dont recall seeing a woman post. decrease in women posting here since last year?

and btw on the AVN loop theres a clearly defined rotation at 16.9N 66.3W


Surfmom, Chicklet, Alaina, TampaMishy have posted among others
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
2598. centex
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Looks WNW to me and may have some mountains in it's future.
Member Since: 10.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3217
2597. canesrule1
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting futuremet:


Based on the latest radar images, 97L has actually gotten better organized since last night. The center was completely cut off from the convection. However, it is till ill-vertically stacked.
no, its actually vertically stacked look:

850 MB



700 MB



500 MB

2596. futuremet
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:
IKE...thanks for the Charleston heads up...today sure is pretty here...


Preslord, I'm surprised you are not tracking this, since the Carolinas may be affected.
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
2595. weathermanwannabe
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Leading edge of some of the t-storms starting to come on-shore on the SW coast of PR...
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
2594. MrSea
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:16 (GMT)


I like this. It shows that what is now in the Bahamas region was that wave we saw that was out ahead of 97L, the one that went through the caribbean a couple days ago.

It also shows that 97L is moving NW and probably wont develop until its in the bahamas region as well (itll be over mountainous land too soon for it to develop now)
2593. BenBIogger
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Member Since: 19.03.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
2592. canesrule1
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:15 (GMT)
im looking at the WU wundermap and i see the COC on radar but i have noticed something, this isn't moving WNW its actually moving NW at over 25 mph.
2591. BurnedAfterPosting
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Quoting Gumbogator:
Interesting language from the NHC on 97L?? "At this time." If 97L can survive the Haiti and DR death trip.......perhaps by Thurs/Fri atmosphere may improve. 2nd blob they may fly into it on the 23rd.


I highly doubt both will be able to develop due to their close proximity, one of them yes, but not both.
2590. ssmate
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
here are the two yellow circles on the map..



You'll need more proof than that.
Member Since: 17.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
2589. Gumbogator
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Interesting language from the NHC on 97L?? "At this time." If 97L can survive the Haiti and DR death trip.......perhaps by Thurs/Fri atmosphere may improve. 2nd blob they may fly into it on the 23rd.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
2588. futuremet
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting cybergrump:
Here you can see where the center is....

Link


Based on the latest radar images, 97L has actually gotten better organized since last night. The center was completely cut off from the convection. However, it is till ill-vertically stacked.
Member Since: 19.07.2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
2587. sporteguy03
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:13 (GMT)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
morning all, well I see some interesting developments occured overnight

97L refuses to die LOL

we could have 98L, as I said last night what I think will happen is 97L will help spark something in the Bahamas

Also the wave in the CATL looks good, but well I guess it is going to hit South America lol



Another day of shear talk and jumping to conclusions ahead :)
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
2586. presslord
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:12 (GMT)
IKE...thanks for the Charleston heads up...today sure is pretty here...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
2585. HurricaneSwirl
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Quoting canesrule1:
thanks, i got the site i just didn't know how to get to the vorticity maps.


ok i posted it just in case anyways ;)


wow wind shear isn't just high for the atlantic, if you look at the CIMSS site there is a large area of 30-70 knots of wind shear in the east pacific and in the west pacific there are many areas of 30-50 knot wind shear, but the west pacific looks like the most favorable basin right now.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2584. popartpete
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:10 (GMT)
Quoting gator23:


Crazy and cool. Tropical Atlantic City
It does sound odd, but New Jersey's coast is considered to have a "humid subtropical" climate. Look on wikipedia.
Member Since: 10.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
2583. canesrule1
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
here are the two yellow circles on the map..

very good, now you aren't lying!
2582. MrSea
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:09 (GMT)
sounds good wannabe

so guys do you think we'll see the bahamas spin become an invest today? i sure hope so

and also, ive been on this blog for the past 3 days now and i dont recall seeing a woman post. decrease in women posting here since last year?

and btw on the AVN loop theres a clearly defined rotation at 16.9N 66.3W
2581. cybergrump
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Here you can see where the center is....

Link
Member Since: 17.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
2580. BurnedAfterPosting
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:09 (GMT)
morning all, well I see some interesting developments occured overnight

97L refuses to die LOL

we could have 98L, as I said last night what I think will happen is 97L will help spark something in the Bahamas

Also the wave in the CATL looks good, but well I guess it is going to hit South America lol
2579. TampaSpin
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Bahamas and MidAtlantic a threat TampaSpins Tropical Update
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
2577. CaicosRetiredSailor
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Puerto Rico Radar loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11111111&loop=yes
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
2576. canesrule1
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


np, if you need the link to the main site its CIMSS site

just scroll down and put your mouse over north atlantic and click whatever you wanna view
thanks, i got the site i just didn't know how to get to the vorticity maps.
2575. weathermanwannabe
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting MrSea:


I guess theres another weathermanwannabe out there... perhaps different spelling? lol the guy i knew was like a cargo boat sailor haha

well hows fishing going for ya?



Too hot right now inshore around the Big Bend so taking the Summer off (doing the Blog thing) and waiting for the Fall for the Reds and Mackarel runs.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
2574. HurricaneSwirl
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Quoting canesrule1:
thanks again


np, if you need the link to the main site its CIMSS site

just scroll down and put your mouse over north atlantic and click whatever you wanna view
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2572. MrSea
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:01 (GMT)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Actually been doing well, don't sail (you got the right person?), but I do fish.... :)


I guess theres another weathermanwannabe out there... perhaps different spelling? lol the guy i knew was like a cargo boat sailor haha

well hows fishing going for ya?

2571. canesrule1
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:01 (GMT)
Both 97L and the AOI over the Bahamas are vertically stacked between 850-500 mb.
2570. CUBWF
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Good morning. Can someone give the link for DR radar.
2569. sfla82
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 13:59 (GMT)
I feel alot better with the models for 97L incase it did develop. The models take it away from South Fla!!! Dodged another one. I still dont think 97L will make it that far down the road.
2568. STORMMASTERG
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 13:59 (GMT)
The system that has better potential is the wave behind 97l.Its gona travel in low shear during its life time.Plus have enhenced dews/and warm ocean temps.I 97l reaches peak td.Shear over the bahamas is to strong/strenghten once trough moves there.
2567. canesrule1
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 13:59 (GMT)
850MB



700MB



500MB



2566. weathermanwannabe
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Quoting MrSea:
Hey wannabe! How've you been, been sailing lately?


Actually been doing well, don't sail (you got the right person?), but I do fish.... :)
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
2565. TStormSC
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Thanks for the Chas discussion IKE. I've been traveling there for work recently. May have to take the rain gear next week :).
Member Since: 15.07.2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 205
2564. HurricaneSwirl
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Quoting jeffs713:


Make sure you can get into your house... ;)


D'OH!
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2563. canesrule1
21. heinäkuuta 2009 klo 13:56 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Link
thanks again

Viewing: 2613 - 2563

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
53 °F
Selkeää